We’re at the point where we’re all just sitting back and waiting for the NFL regular season to start. The preseason is (thankfully) almost finished and for the most part, every major position battle has been decided.
Like usual, there has been a significant amount of injuries this preseason. The big ones, of course, are Tony Romo breaking a bone in his back, which will sideline him for about half the season, and Teddy Bridgewater suffering a torn ACL and dislocated knee on a non-contact drill. Other than Romo, the only injuries worth mentioning are Patriots running back Dion Lewis and Ravens tight end Ben Watson.
Many, like myself, are anxiously awaiting the fantasy football season, where we will see whether Antonio Brown breaks the single-season record for receptions, Adrian Peterson brings home another rushing title, and, of course, Sam Bradford builds on his final seven games from last season.
Below I listed 10 players whose fantasy value I disagree with the most. I’m not necessarily saying I think these players aren’t draftable or are All-Pros. I’m simply stating that I strongly disagree with the general consensus for each of the ten players.
10. Paul Perkins, undervalued: Rashad Jennings will have six good games. Maybe. Andre Williams sucks. So tell me why the mid-round rookie running back is going undrafted or last round in so many leagues? Draft him, stash him and wait. Maybe it won’t work out but I bet he’ll get his chance pretty soon. Same applies for Devantae Booker.
9. Rob Gronkowski, overvalued: First of all, he’s not as good as people think. He’s just not. Yes, he’s got the cool nickname and he gets highlight-reel touchdown catches but the numbers haven’t come close to 2011’s insane 17-touchdown season. He’s drafted as if he’s the best tight end in the NFL and no one else is remotely close. If you could guarantee that he’d stay healthy and have Brady for all 16 games, it makes sense. But you can’t, and as it is, he’s a ridiculous injury risk and people seem to have forgotten this. His All-World QB is suspended for 4 games. His backup tight end is a major threat to his targets. He’s still the most productive fantasy tight end in the game but I can’t imagine why anybody would spend a first-round pick on him.
8. Jordan Reed, overvalued: It’s amazing how recency bias plays a part in fantasy football rankings. Yes, Jordan Reed was amazing last season. He may have been the best tight in the National Football League, even over Rob Gronkowski. But my faith in him repeating his tremendous production is very limited. He’s always been a major injury concern, missing seven games in 2013, five in 2014 and two in 2015. Last season, he benefited from a quarterback having a Nick Foles breakout season and a number one receiver (DeSean Jackson) who missed half the season. He’ll also have to compete with rookie first-round pick Josh Doctson. And don’t forget that a year earlier Reed caught 50 passes and didn’t score a single touchdown. I think that in an absolute best-case scenario, Reed can finish as a top-two tight end again. But in fantasy drafts, I’ll take my chances with a more consistent player like Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen.
7. Mike Evans/Amari Cooper, undervalued: They should be borderline first-round picks. Winston is going to take a big step forward. Vincent Jackson is almost done. So who catches all the touchdowns? Hey, maybe Evans, who is getting drafted like the player who scored 3 times in 2015 and not the player who scored 12 in 2014. And Cooper played through a high ankle sprain in the second half of 2015. He was the number four pick in 2015 and has insane potential that we all saw in the first half of his rookie season. I can’t wait to see him healthy for a full season. They both have so much potential.
6. Doug Martin, overvalued: Doug Martin terrifies me. He’s the worst type of player, a hit-or-miss running back who has hit when it counts (his rookie season and his contract season) and missed in the two seasons in between. Now that Martin has earned a lengthy contract extension, there’s plenty of reason to be concerned over his future production. The discrepancy between his highs and his lows is just too alarming for a player who is currently being drafted based on his highs. Add in a very capable backup running back and I can’t even assure you that Martin will end the season as his team’s starter, let alone a player with Pro Bowl talent.
5. Drew Brees, undervalued: Ben Roethlisberger is going ahead of Drew Brees in most fantasy football drafts. That’s simply unbelievable. Brees has spent the last decade as the most consistent quarterback in the NFL, an elite touchdown producer who has averaged more than 4800 passing yards and 35 touchdowns since he joined the Saints in 2006. Even at age 37, Brees is still in his peak years, and he’ll have new additions in Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener to go with Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead. With Aaron Rodgers coming off a shaky season, Tom Brady suspended for four games and Russell Wilson in a run-first offense, you can easily make the case that Brees should be the number two quarterback in most fantasy drafts.
4. Golden Tate, undervalued: No Calvin Johnson. Bad running game. Likely losing record. I’m not a big Marvin Jones guy. And Matthew Stafford regularly completes 430 passes per season. I bet Tate catches over 100 passes this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Golden Tate come close to 120 catches. If he can improve on last season’s disastrous 9.1 yards per catch rate, he also has an outside chance to lead the NFL in receiving yards.
3. Kamar Aiken, undervalued: I must be missing something when it comes to Kamar Aiken. All I hear is that we have no idea who will emerge for the Ravens’ WRs. I don’t think Steve Smith does anything at age 37 coming off a torn Achilles. Breshad Perriman won’t (perhaps ever). Mike Wallace is a major flier. So who could it be? Hey, maybe the guy who caught 75 passes last season, including 56 in his final nine contests. He is a sleeper to catch 100 passes on a team that will probably throw the ball 660 times. He’s not a big game and he won’t score double-digit touchdowns but he could average six receptions per game, as he did in the final two months of 2015.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, overvalued: He threw 21 TDs and 16 INTs last season. I can’t get over how average and pedstrian those numbers are. You could tell most people it was 35-8 and they wouldn’t bat an eye. He has incredible talent around him and he had SO MANY dud games last season. He’s an injury risk, he’ll be missing his number two receiver and maybe his tight end and his All-Pro running back (for a few games). He’s a very good quarterback and I fully expect him to have a better statistical season in 2016 than in 2015. But I’d rank him about seventh or eighth among fantasy quarterbacks instead of top three.
1. David Johnson, overvalued: I see him going as high as number 3 in PPR drafts. That is so laughable that I don’t even know where to start. It’s gotten to the point where I am convinced that I am missing something. He’s played HALF A SEASON. He wasn’t dominant in college. He had most of his production in one huge game. He’ll never sustain his yards per catch and likely not his touchdown rate. He has a good backup threatening his workload. He absolutely could live up to the hype and be a terrific player, and playing on a tremendous offense definitely helps. But I don’t understand why someone would take the risk and select him in the first six or seven picks. I would take six or seven running backs over Johnson.
