The fact that NFL contracts aren’t guaranteed means even the highest-paid superstars can be cut in the blink of an eye if their performance drops off for even a season. The 15 players on this list vary from established veterans trying to justify their highly-paid contracts to rookies that have so far failed to prove their worth in the league to stars rebounding from serious injuries. Many on the list are set to hit free agency, and will need to produce in 2015 to earn long-term contract extensions. Quarterback is the NFL’s most important position, so you’ll see six of them on this list, and a legitimate case could be made to make all 15 players be quarterbacks.
15. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears By now, Jay Cutler has become almost a running joke in NFL circles. Cutler being Cutler is a term used after one of Cutler’s penchant interceptions, and Chicago fans still haven’t let him off the hook for riding the bike in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. Cutler’s ’15 campaign was another lost cause; fresh off a $100-plus million contract, he tied for the league lead in interceptions (18), set a career-high in fumbles (12) and was temporarily benched for 2010 draft bust Jimmy Clausen. The rocket arm is there and he’s never been short on talent, but Cutler has dealt with numerous injuries and been a notorious coach-killer his entire NFL career. Amidst offseason trade rumors, the Bears kept Cutler and will now be on the hook for his $16.5 million salary in 2015 and $17 million in 2016. But look for Chicago to target a quarterback in the top of the ’16 NFL draft, and if the team can trade Cutler for even a mid-round draft pick, it’s likely they’ll do it.
14. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Miami Dolphins/Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina Panthers Ndamukong Suh’s $114 million contract with the Miami Dolphins makes him the new highest-paid defensive player in the National Football League. Charles Johnson’s $20.02 million cap hit for 2015 makes him the highest-paid defensive player for this season. In a league with a salary cap – and considering each player is on a team with a franchise quarterback earning top dollar – that’s a ridiculous amount to pay a player who lines up on the defensive line. That’s not to say each isn’t a good player. Suh is arguably the top defensive tackle in the league. And Johnson is a quietly underrated defensive end who has averaged 10.5 sacks the last five seasons. But for those contracts, anything short of perennial Defensive Player of the Year performances has to be viewed as a disappointment.
13. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals The NFL’s player definition of mediocrity, the numbers can be spun to make Andy Dalton look good or bad, depending on your mood. He’s a durable quarterback with a pair of Pro Bowl appearances on his resume, and he’s averaged 3,700 passing yards and 25 touchdowns per season since the Cincinnati Bengals drafted him in 2011. The problems are his $100 million contract and his 0-4 playoff record. Whether you like it or not, quarterbacks in this league are judged by their playoff records. That’s what will likely get Ben Roethlisberger in the Hall of Fame and keep Philip Rivers out. Dalton’s nine-figure contract isn’t quite what it appears to be; the Bengals can theoretically release him after this season and take just a $7.2 million cap hit. If he stumbles again in the postseason (where he has one touchdown pass in four January games), Cincinnati may decide to draft a quarterback that can elevate his teammates in the biggest moments.
12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions Jay Cutler probably wins the award for quarterback who does the least with the most talent, but Matthew Stafford has to be a close second. Stafford is a former No. 1 overall pick and allegedly a franchise quarterback who is under contract through the 2017 season. But he’s never won a playoff game. He’s a despicable 0-17 in road games against teams with a winning record. Among the 22 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts since 2012, Stafford ranks dead-last in passer rating (83.0). This is despite playing in an offense that has Calvin Johnson, a freakishly talented wide receiver who is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer one day. Imagine what Stafford’s numbers would be without Megatron. Stafford threw 22 touchdowns in 2014; that numbers should easily be 35. There’s nothing about Stafford that justifies the fact that he’ll be the NFL’s ninth-highest paid player in ’15.
11. The 2012-2013 Top-5 Offensive Tackles It’s an understatement to say offensive tackles taken in the top five of the last several NFL drafts have struggled. Matt Kalil did make the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he’s bottomed out and may not get a starting job in 2016 if he keeps it up. Andy Reid curiously took Eric Fisher with the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, but the player who went second, Luke Joeckel, has been just as bad. Fisher has missed the majority of the preseason with an ankle injury, and he’s been abused when he’s seen the field. Joeckel rated by PFF as a bottom-20 offensive tackle in ’14, and time is ticking for him to salvage his career. It’s worth noting that 2014’s highly-drafted offensive tackles, Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews, looked vastly overmatched as well when thrust into starting roles, but one year of poor play is too soon to put them on this list.
10. The 2013 First-Round Pass-Rushers The 2013 NFL draft is looking mighty bad, and the edge rushers aren’t helping the draft’s case. Dion Jordan has three sacks in two seasons, and a suspension for the entire 2015 season means he’s going to have just three sacks in three NFL seasons. Barkevious Mingo, drafted sixth overall, has seven sacks in two seasons and will miss significant time this year after undergoing an offseason knee scope. Jarvis Jones is a struggling backup to 37-year-old James Harrison, and Bjoern Werner hasn’t played well in a 4-3 or 3-4. Save for Ezekiel Ansah, it’s been a brutal class of edge rushers.
9. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills Rex Ryan’s ground-and-pound offense thoeretically got a major boost with the trade for longtime Philadelphia Eagles running back, LeSean McCoy. The problem is that McCoy saw a major drop in his 2014 production after an All-Pro ’13 campaign. He’s going from the NFL’s No. 1-rated run-blocking offensive line (per PFF) to the league’s second-worst. He’s going from a Chip Kelly offense that gets career years out of every skill position player to a Buffalo offense with an unstable quarterback problem, meaning opposing defenses may stack the box and force McCoy to beat them. McCoy is also struggling through a hamstring injury that may cause him to miss some time. And he’s just starting year one of a new $40 million contract extension, which is a ridiculous amount of money to pay a 27-year-old running back with over 1,750 touches to his name.
8. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul’s offseason sure hasn’t been one to remember. After turning down a $60 million long-term deal from the New York Giants, JPP’s fireworks accident may permanently cripple him as an NFL player. Pierre-Paul has had back issues in the past, and his year-by-year sack totals have been inconsistent throughout his five-year career. Considering he’s a free agent after 2015, he will really need a strong season to prove he’s still a viable pass-rusher, no matter how many fingers he has.
7. Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys Remember when the Dallas Cowboys drafted Morris Claiborne with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft and Jerry Jones said he was the next Deion Sanders? Here’s how Claiborne has fared in his three seasons so far. He’s played just 29 of a possible 48 games. He’s recorded just three interceptions. Last year, he dealt with knee tendinitis, an AC joint separation, and then a devastating patellar tendon injury, one that can become extremely difficult to come back from. Given the recent news that cornerback Orlando Scandrick has torn his ACL and will miss all of 2015, the Cowboys really need Claiborne to step up and prove he can be a full-time player. If not, first-round pick Byron Jones will be pushing for Claiborne’s snaps, and Claiborne may have to accept a part-time role with another team via free agency.
6. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB, Houston Texans Thought upon as a once-in-a-generation, can’t-miss prospect, Jadeveon Clowney’s rookie season was hit by the injury bug. Clowney had a torn meniscus and then the dreaded microfracture knee surgery, a procedure that has all but ended the careers of a number of promising NFL players. Clowney is still just 22 years old and he’s in a great situation in Houston, where he’s surrounded by J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork, and Brian Cushing. There’s plenty of time for him to revive his career, but if Clowney doesn’t show some elite pass-rushing abilities this year, Texans fans have every right to be worried about his long-term status as a player.
5. Byron Maxwell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles Byron Maxwell is everything Chip Kelly wants in a cornerback – he’s tall, lanky, possesses long arms and can play physical football. But a $63 million contract for a one-year starter in Seattle is incredibly risky. Maxwell won’t be taking his Legion of Boom mates in Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor with him to Philadelphia; instead, he’ll be the No. 1 cornerback on a defense that lacked elite secondary play down the stretch in 2014. Maxwell needs to play at a Pro Bowl level to come close to fulfilling his contract. He’s backed by a powerful front seven, but the schedule of wide receivers Maxwell will face is a nightmarish scenario – OBJ twice, Dez Bryant twice, DeSean Jackson twice, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Mike Evans, Calvin Johnson and Sammy Watkins. If Maxwell turns into the next Nnamdi Asomugha in Philadelphia, that’s a tough financial situation to get past. If he becomes a Pro Bowl player, the Eagles become a Super Bowl team.
4. Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns The Cleveland Browns were able to fleece the Indianapolis Colts for a first-round pick in the Trent Richardson trade. Then they turned around and drafted Johnny Manziel. That’s why bad teams stay bad. Manziel’s rookie season was a walking disaster – he was a liability on the field and in the locker room, he couldn’t stay healthy, and it got to the point that the Browns felt veteran journeyman Josh McCown was worth $6.25 million in guaranteed money to play quarterback in 2015. McCown will undoubtedly struggle and probably be benched at some point this season. Manziel will likely have this one last chance to prove he belongs in the NFL; otherwise, don’t be surprised if Cleveland outright cuts him after ’15.
3. Jairus Byrd, S, New Orleans Saints The Buffalo Bills wisely allowed Jairus Byrd to test the free-agent market after 2013, and the New Orleans Saints dished out a ridiculous $54 million ($26 million guaranteed) for Byrd’s services. Byrd suffered a torn lateral meniscus knee ligament in October of his first season with the Saints, and he may begin the ’15 season still on the PUP list as he tries to recover. That’s not good news for the Saints, who are undergoing a transition from a predominantly pass-based team to a running offense. Getting high-quality defensive play from the highest-paid safety in NFL history is a must for the Saints to make the 2015 playoffs. If Byrd struggles once again or can’t stay healthy, the Saints may look to move on from that massive contract.
2. Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars It was a tale of two stories for Blake Bortles in 2014; he played like John Elway in the preseason, then was arguably the league’s worst quarterback during the regular season. It was a difficult situation for sure, as he was a rookie quarterback. Free-agent running back Toby Gerhart was a colossal bust. The defense was a bottom-seven unit in terms of both total yards and points allowed. But Bortles didn’t help his case, and getting sacked a league-high 55 times is no way for a rookie quarterback to earn confidence in his teammates. If Bortles doesn’t show improvement in ’15, he’s going to cost coach Gus Bradley his job. The excuses will be tougher to make – the Jaguars added massive red-zone target Julius Thomas, plus a second-round workhorse running back in T.J. Yeldon. Now it’s time for Bortles to cut down on his mistakes and make some plays of his own.
1. Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Five seasons into his NFL career, Sam Bradford has been mediocre, injury-prone, overpaid and unable to elevate his teammates. So Chip Kelly’s inexplicable decision to swap Nick Foles for Bradford – while throwing in a second-round pick in 2016 – puts an unbelievable amount of pressure on Bradford to live up to his potential. And after his absolutely dominant performance in a week 3 preseason win over the Green Bay Packers, expectations for Philadelphia Eagles fans have to be through the roof. Bradford’s cannon arm was on display, as was his superb decision-making. He simply shredded the Packers’ defense, and he’s in an offense with a head coach who has coaxed career years out of nearly every offensive player with whom he’s worked. It will all come down to whether Bradford can stay healthy. If he can – and he produces as expected in Kelly’s offense – he’s going to get a lucrative contract extension and likely be the long-term quarterback on a perennial contender. If he gets hurt again, the Eagles will likely allow him to walk in free agency, and there’s a chance Bradford may get nothing more than a backup deal with another NFL team. With that in mind, it’s quite literally a make-or-break season for Bradford’s career.
