This is the ninth year I’ve done my bold NFL predictions, but I decided to mix it up a little. Rather than doing 50 bold predictions in all, I’ve done three for each team. You’ll find my complete list of NFL award winners and playoff predictions at the end.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots
Tom Brady will make his NFL-record setting 15th Pro Bowl this year, throwing for 4,286 yards and 27 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. He’ll move past Peyton Manning’s current career total for touchdown passes – but Drew Brees will get there first. When the Patriots inevitably make the Super Bowl this year, Brady will have 19 seasons as a starter and more seasons reaching the Super Bowl (10) than not (9).
No Gronk, no problem. Until Gronk returns. The last time Tom Brady didn’t have Rob Gronkowski on his team, Brett Favre was still in the NFL. It will be a challenge for Bill Belichick to find ways to scheme his other tight ends into the offense, especially with Ben Watson suspended for the first four games. After Matt LaCosse/Ryan Izzo combine for seven catches in the September and then Watson goes down with an injury in October, the Patriots essentially have to phase the tight end out of their offense. Until early December, when Adam Schefter tweets that the Patriots have agreed to a prorated one-year, incentive-laden contract to lure Rob Gronkowski out of retirement. Hey, Belichick let Hall of Famer Junior Seau do this for years. Why can’t Gronk? In his first game back, Gronk hauls in a ridiculous one-handed 19-yard touchdown reception, then spikes the ball. He finishes with five touchdowns in four regular season games.
Stephon Gilmore will double down on 2018 and prove he’s the best corner in football. Even Bill Belichick is willing to pay for cornerbacks, having bid $70 million for Gilmore’s services two offseasons ago and then rode his stellar play to a Super Bowl title. PFF charted Gilmore as being the game’s best overall corner by a significant margin in ’18, and he’ll repeat as the leader again in ’19.
Prediction: 12-4 (1st)
New York Jets
Sam Darnold throws for 31 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. Adam Gase has Sam Darnold moving in the right direction. Last year, the rookie Darnold was PFF’s third-highest rated quarterback after Week 14. This year, Darnold will show he’s the complete package. He’ll work his way into the MVP conversation and show the Jets are primed to be a contender in this division going forward.
Le’Veon Bell re-emerges as the NFL’s best running back. A year off will be good for Bell. We’ve never quite seen a running back in his prime take a full season away from the game quite like Bell, but he’s still just 27 years old. The Jets aren’t paying Bell to be a part-time running back and they’re going to use him like a complete workhorse. He’ll finish with a 319/1,243/9 rushing line plus 78/643/5 as a receiver out of the backfield. That’s close to 1,900 scrimmage yards for Bell.
The Jets’ defense will finish in the top 10 in both points scored and yards allowed while sending rookie Quinnen Williams, newly-signed linebacker C.J. Mosley, and safety Jamal Adams to the Pro Bowl. Williams will be the first rookie defensive lineman to make the Pro Bowl since Aaron Donald in 2014 and the first to do it from an end position since Jevon Kearse in 1999. Mosley was paid a fortune to be the leader in the middle of the defense. Adams, in particular, will become arguably the league’s best safety.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd)
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen will miss six games due to injury but take strides forward as a passer when he does play. Running quarterbacks typically struggle to stay healthy, and Allen won’t be an exception. He’ll miss six games with various injuries, forcing Matt Barkley into action. But when he does play, Allen will complete close to 60 percent of his passes, throw more touchdowns than interceptions, and add seven rushing scores on the ground.
Devin Singletary takes over this backfield. With LeSean McCoy a veteran preseason release and Father Time finally catching up with the 36-year-old Frank Gore, the rookie third-round pick Singletary emerges as the Bills’ starter by October. Singletary finishes with 808 rushing yards and another 332 yards as a receiver out of the backfield, scoring seven total touchdowns.
Rookie defensive tackle Ed Oliver shows he’s Buffalo’s next Marcell Dareus. He starts all 16 games, registers 6.5 sacks, and becomes a building block of a defense that features young stars Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, and Tre’Davious White.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd)
Miami Dolphins
Years from now, we will look back on Josh Rosen and say he never stood a chance. He’s on a struggling offense that just traded away explosive wide receiver Kenny Stills and franchise left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Rosen will make eight miserable sack-filled starts after Ryan Fitzpatrick is benched, but that won’t stop Miami from taking whichever quarterback they want in the 2020 draft.
Cornerback Xavien Howard will lead the NFL in interceptions (8) for the second straight season. Last year, Howard had seven picks in just 12 games. This year, he’ll once again serve as a bright spot for a porous defense, functioning as a high-end playmaker in the secondary. With the money Miami paid him, they need strong production, and they’ll get it. Coupled with Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins have two players in their defensive backfield worth building around.
Miami will start the year 0-7 and finish 2-14, ensuring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. It will be as obvious of a tanking job as we’ve seen in recent NFL years.
Prediction: 2-14 (4th)
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger won’t miss a beat without Antonio Brown/Le’Veon Bell. Roethlisberger is back for his 16th season and quietly coming off a league-best 5,129 passing yards and a personal-best 34 touchdown passes that earned him a two-year, $68 million contract extension. Roethlisberger will be fine without Brown; in fact, his 106.5 passer rating will be the highest of his career. He’s a man with something to prove, and he’ll do it.
Devin Bush wins NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, as he records four sacks, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries, two forced fumbles, and 106 tackles. He was drafted to be Ryan Shazier’s replacement, and he’ll be that player in year one.
Pittsburgh, not the much-hyped Cleveland Browns, win the AFC North. The Steelers have the better coach, better quarterback, and s significantly better offensive line. Roethlisberger will be on a mission to prove he’s still an elite quarterback without AB, and as a result, the Steelers cruise to double-digit wins.
Prediction: 11-5 (1st)
Cleveland Browns
Left tackle derails this team. Has any team coming off a 7-8-1 season ever entered a season with such outlandish expectations? This is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2002 and no one would bat an eye if you picked Cleveland to go 12-4 and make the conference championship game this year. From Baker Mayfield to Odell Beckham, Jr. to Myles Garrett, they’re certainly not short on star players. The problem is an offensive line that’s scarily thin in pass protectors and will hold the Browns back all year, ultimately costing the team a playoff berth. The team released Greg Robinson before final cuts, yet brought him back because they knew no one would sign him. Is that a good plan for an AFC playoff contender? You’ll see a minimum of three different starters at left tackle for the 2019 Browns, and that’s not ideal for a playoff contender.
OBJ will finish with a 79/1,065/7 receiving line in 13 games this year – good production but not quite worth the talk you typically get from the outspoken receiver, and eerily similar to what he did with a far inferior quarterback in Big Blue a year ago. In five years as a pro, Beckham has flashed ridiculous potential and put together three 1,000-yard seasons, but he has yet to be named an All-Pro and he’s missed 16 games due to injury over the last two years.
Myles Garrett cashes in after the year. He’s an explosive pass rusher who is just hitting the prime of his career, and is ceiling is almost unlimited. When Myles Garrett puts up 15.5 sacks in 2019, he’ll be eligible for a contract extension at the age of just 24 years old. If Khalil Mack got $23 million per year, expect Garrett to come away with close to $25 million – five years, $126 million with $74 million guaranteed.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Baltimore Ravens
When Lamar Jackson gets hurt, RGIII actually plays well and invokes the slightest of quarterback controversies. Can you get two more vastly different quarterbacks than Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson? Jackson may have saved John Harbaugh’s job with wins in six of his last seven starts a year ago, but you also have to credit Harbaugh for coming up with a plan to maximize Jackson’s rushing skills while limiting the number of passes he would have to throw. Can it carry over to 2019 though? No quarterback has ever maintained the number of rushes Jackson averages per game (17 per start) over a full season. Jackson won’t top last year’s 147 rushing attempts simply because he won’t stay healthy long enough. He’ll miss four games this year due to various injuries, during which the one once known as RGIII will run a similar offense – lots of runs, managing the game and making the occasional splash play.
Earl Thomas earns a First-Team All-Pro selection. Baltimore’s defense quietly ranked No. 1 in the league in total yards allowed last year, but this unit saw an unbelievable amount of turnover – Brent Urban, Za’Darius Smith, Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, and Eric Weddle. Fortunately, the team inked future Hall of Fame safety Earl Thomas to a new deal, and he still has a lot left. He will start all 16 games, record five interceptions, and earn a First-Team AP All-Pro nomination as the ballhawk of their secondary. By this point, Thomas will have seven Pro Bowls and four All-Pros plus a ring – that will be enough to put him in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day.
Justin Tucker shatters the NFL record with a 67-yard field goal. If anyone has the leg strength to do it, it’s Tucker, who has connected on a ridiculous 70 percent of 50-plus yard field goals over his seven-year career.
Prediction: 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton is benched. With two games left in the season, new head coach Zac Taylor benches Dalton for fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley. Finley probably isn’t the answer, but everyone knows Dalton’s contract essentially guarantees nothing at this point, and why not try to see what’s there in Finley?
It’s a lost season for A.J. Green. Just two years ago, Green was probably on his way to the Pro Football Hall of Fame; now, injuries have caught up with him to the point that he’s going to end up in the pantheon of very good but not quite Hall of Fame receivers like Chad Ochocinco, Roddy White, and Jimmy Smith. Green will miss the first nine games while he recovers from torn ankle ligaments, then post a 25/345/2 line over seven injury-plagued contests to finish the year.
It’s also a lost season for left tackle Cordy Glenn. The Bengals have struggled to find their franchise left tackle since letting Andrew Whitworth leave in free agency. They whiffed on both Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, and lost Jonah Williams to a season-ending injury before 2019 even started. Glenn missed three games due to injury in ’18 and is already dealing with concussion symptoms this year. He’ll be a cap casualty after the year.
Prediction: 5-11 (4th)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts
It’s now Jacoby Brissett’s team and that’s ok. After the most shocking NFL retirement since Calvin Johnson? Barry Sanders? Jim Brown?!, newly-promoted starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett starts all 16 games and plays surprisingly well. Brissett has experience being in Indianapolis’ system and head coach Frank Reich has gotten the best of backups before (see Nick Foles in Super Bowl 52). Brissett finishes with 3,849 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and another five from the ground.
Justin Houston picks up where he left off in KC. In his first year with Indianapolis, Houston registers 13 sacks and four forced fumbles, becoming the first Colt to match that figure in sacks since Robert Mathis in 2013. Houston’s presence on the edge makes it much easier for Margus Hunt, Darius Leonard, and second-round rookie Ben Banogu.
Reich takes the Colts to nine wins and a division title, earning NFL Coach of the Year. The Colts finished last year 10-6 after a 1-5 start, thanks to GM Chris Ballard’s excellent drafts in recent years. Reich and Ballard have this team moving in the right direction, and Reich is about to show that the team is so much more than just Andrew Luck.
Prediction: 9-7 (1st)
Houston Texans
Despite all their questionable trades, Houston still makes the playoffs. A team without a GM is acting like you’d expect a team without a GM to act. Houston drastically overpaid for pass-catching back Duke Johnson, received an embarrassingly low return on three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, and then gave up a king’s ransom for an offensive tackle who has never made a Pro Bowl. Fortunately for Houston, they have a talented enough roster that they’ll still win nine games and earn a wild card spot on the strength of the devastating Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins combo – Watson will start all 16 games again and make plays as both a passer and runner, and Hopkins will finish with 1,432 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.
Laremy Tunsil becomes the highest-paid offensive tackle ever. Tunsil has all the leverage in Houston, especially considering what the organization traded for him. Regardless of how he plays in 2019, he’s going to get paid handsomely. Expect Tunsil to set a new record at the position – think somewhere in the range of $18 million per year, surpassing Trent Brown’s $16.5 million average annual value.
J.J. Watt earns his sixth First-Team AP All-Pro selection. He racks up 12 sacks, four forced fumbles, and four fumble recoveries, and does this all after having seen Jadeveon Clowney leave via a trade. You know how many defensive players in the Super Bowl era have been named a First-Team All-Pro six separate times? Watt will join a club that includes only 13 other defensive players, all of whom are enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Nick Foles starts 16 games for the first time in his career but is just ok. The Jacksonville Jaguars are paying a pretty penny for the Nick Foles of the 2017 playoff run, not the replacement-level quarterback of the 2015 St. Louis Rams. Fortunately, the Jaguars have Foles’ former quarterbacks coach, John DeFilippo, as their offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, Foles won’t have even close to the weapons he had in Philadelphia. Foles will start all 16 games but rank fairly low in most stats, finishing with 3,412 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
Rookie Josh Allen becomes a star. Allen will make an immediate splash as a pass rusher, earning AFC Defensive Player of the Month in September and finishing with 11 sacks. Playing on a line with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue means Allen will have to fight for his snaps, but he’ll prove he’s talented enough to play regularly on pass-rushing downs.
Jalen Ram$ey get$ hi$ ca$h. Ramsey is a free agent after the season and he knows it. He literally showed up at training camp in an armored truck. He’s already said he won’t be giving the Jaguars any discount in his upcoming contract extension. Ramsey will be playing to prove his worth in 2019 and after a season in which he starts all 16 games, records four interceptions, and rates among the best cornerbacks per PFF, he’s going to cash in with a ridiculous contract. Xavien Howard was paid $15.05 million per year over five years – watch Ramsey get $20 million over five years with $58 million guaranteed at signing.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd)
Tennessee Titans
Marcus Mariota gets benched for Ryan Tannehill. Does anyone realize the Tennessee Titans have literally won nine games in each of their past three seasons? They have some building blocks on their team and a good head coach in Mike Vrabel. The problem is the quarterback situation. Marcus Mariota isn’t the long-term answer and he’ll be benched midway through the year for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill isn’t the future either, and the Titans know that, but it will be more of a message to Mariota than anything else.
Derrick Henry is a tackle-breaking machine. After leading all running backs with 45 missed tackles in 2018, Derrick Henry ups that number to 65 in 2019, the highest single-season total of any running back since Marshawn Lynch in 2014. Perhaps the finest measure of a running back’s effectiveness is yards gained after contact per attempt, and Henry also shone in this stat a year ago. He’s a bruising running back and will put up 1,233 rushing yards as the feature back of his offense.
Tennessee’s secondary is elite. Tennessee boasts the finest pass defense in the NFL, leading the league in opposing passer rating allowed (74.3) and interceptions (22). This secondary is fierce with newly-extended safety Kevin Byard, Adoree’ Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Logan Ryan.
Prediction: 7-9 (4th)
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes wins MVP award #2. It must be fun to be Patrick Mahomes. He’s still just 23 years old in an offense with Andy Reid as his head coach and he’s coming off a season in which he threw 50 touchdown passes and won the MVP award. Oh, and his best receiver, Tyreek Hill, wasn’t suspended. Mahomes will repeat as NFL MVP in 2019, throwing for an NFL-record 5,612 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He’ll also lead the league with 17 interceptions, so think of him as a newer-age Kurt Warner.
LeSean McCoy sort of bounces back. McCoy will see a partial career revival in Kansas City, gaining 827 rushing yards and scoring seven touchdowns for the coach who drafted him back in 2009. Playing with Mahomes is a little easier than playing with Josh Allen, and McCoy will be taking carries from Damien Williams by mid-September.
Kansas City’s defense is historically awful. The offense will need every one of Mahomes’ touchdown passes because Kansas City will field the worst defense in the league. They’ve lost Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Peters, and Eric Berry in recent years. Adding Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu was nice, but still, you’re going to see shootouts like you won’t believe from Kansas City. They’ll finish the season as the first team to ever allow over 500 points and still reach the playoffs.
Prediction: 11-5 (1st)
Los Angeles Chargers
Melvin Gordon reports to the team by Week 3 and without a new deal. Melvin Gordon is a fine running back, one fresh off a season in which he gained 1,375 scrimmage yards and scored 14 total touchdowns. He’s actually the only running back in the NFL to have topped 1,300 total yards and 12 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. The problem is that he’s a running back. And one who had had microfracture knee surgery before and missed multiple games in three of four NFL seasons. Teams rarely pay for elite running backs. Once the first two games go by and Austin Ekeler has scored four total touchdowns, Gordon returns to the organization and plays the rest of the year on his current contract.
Philip Rivers makes the 2010s a clean sweep. Did you know Philip Rivers has started all 144 games so far in the 2010s? In fact, he’s started every game in his career, which means he’s played 208 in a row without an injury. Rivers throws for 26 touchdowns in 2019, giving him an easy 400 in his career. Not bad for a guy who some feel is just the third-best quarterback of the 2004 draft class.
The defense never recovers from losing Derwin James. This is a defense that thrives on Derwin James’ ability to do everything in the secondary – from covering wide receivers to recording tackles to picking up sacks on safety blitzes. His offseason foot injury is absolutely devastating for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations. So as not to rush him back too soon, he won’t end up seeing the field until Week 12. His absence drastically limits what defensive coordinator Gus Bradley can do.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Oakland Raiders
Antonio Brown does Antonio Brown things. He’ll probably be making off-the-field headlines until the day he retires, but if one thing is for certain, it’s that Antonio Brown can play. AB is determined to prove he can sustain success away from Ben Roethlisberger, and he’ll finish with a 102/1,349/9 statline in Oakland, giving him his NFL-record seventh consecutive season with 100 catches. (Update: Antonio Brown is now on New England).
The offensive line will be a mess. Tom Cable has been an offensive line coach for 13 seasons and never had a team finish higher than 20th in adjusted sack rate. It’s absolutely bizarre that he continues to get jobs. The Raiders paid $66 million for Trent Brown, a player that rated 68th among 80 qualifying offensive tackles per PFF’s 2018 grades. Brown has unbelievable size but if he didn’t rate well playing in Bill Belichick/Dante Scarnecchia’s system, he’s not going to fare well with Cable in Oakland. Right tackle Kolton Miller was PFF’s worst-graded offensive lineman in 2018, actually earning the lowest overall grade the website has ever handed out to any offensive lineman since its inception in 2006. That doesn’t bode well for Derek Carr.
Jon Gruden will spend all year looking for the pass rush he once had when Khalil Mack was still a Raider. Clellin Ferrell was overdrafted with the fourth overall selection. No individual player on Oakland will register more than 4.5 sacks in 2019 and the Raiders will once again finish last in the league in team sacks.
Prediction: 6-10 (3rd)
Denver Broncos
The Joe Flacco experiment won’t work in Denver. It’s peculiar, even downright bizarre, that team president John Elway thinks 34-year-old Joe Flacco can even be a short-term answer with the Broncos, especially considering Flacco has statistically been one of the worst passers in the league since 2015. Flacco will start all 16 games but finish with just 3,468 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions.
Phillip Lindsay unofficially loses his starting job midway through the season. Lindsay impressively made the Pro Bowl as an undrafted rookie in 2018, but it’s fair to wonder whether he has the size (180 pounds) to hold up for a full season. By the start of November, he’ll be regularly splitting carries with Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman.
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb become the first pair of teammate edge rushers to each earn First-Team AP All-Pro selections since Bryce Paup and Bruce Smith in 1995. Miller continues to solidify his Hall of Fame case with 14.5 sacks while Chubb picks up 15 of his own. Good luck to the rest of the AFC West trying to block those two off the edge.
Prediction: 5-11 (4th)
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz starts every game and wins Comeback Player of the Year. The organization allowed Nick Foles to leave for Jacksonville via free agency, meaning it’s Carson Wentz’s team. And they made that even more obvious by dishing out $128 million for Wentz that will keep him in a Philadelphia uniform through 2024. Wentz will start all 16 games this year, shedding the injury label and becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to pass for 4,000 yards. He’ll see his ups and downs but still finish with 34 touchdown passes (breaking his own team record) against 14 interceptions, and that will earn him NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
DeSean Jackson keeps making big plays. DeSean Jackson catches a 67-yard touchdown in his first game with the Eagles and finishes the year with a solid 59/943/5 statline. Even at age 32 years old, he hasn’t missed a step. He will make life much easier for young up-and-coming pass catchers like Dallas Goedert and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.
Andre Dillard takes over for Jason Peters. When future Hall of Famer Jason Peters goes down with a season-ending back injury in Week 5, first-round rookie Andre Dillard is inserted into the starting lineup and plays extremely well, allowing just one sack all year while rating via PFF as a top-10 offensive tackle in the game.
Prediction: 11-5 (1st)
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott has his worst year as a pro. Assuming Dallas is able to reach a long-term contract extension with Elliott (reports at the time of publication say the team is close to finalizing a $90 million deal that will make him the NFL’s highest-paid running back), he will be on the field for Week 1. The problem is he wasn’t with the team in training camp or preseason. He’ll start slow, missing multiple games with soft-tissue injuries and even ceding some carries to rookie Tony Pollard. Elliott will pick up the pace near December, but 978 rushing yards on a 4.2 yards-per-carry average is not worth $15 million per year.
Dak Prescott gets a record in guarantees. Dak Prescott plays surprisingly well without Elliott for the first six games and finishes the year with 29 total touchdowns and a 98.7 passer rating. He’s a better quarterback than he gets credit for and will eventually become the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history, surpassing Carson Wentz’s contract (report: right before publication, Jared Goff topped this with $110 million in guarantees) with a deal worth $116 million in guaranteed money.
Coach Clap gets fired. When the Cowboys lose their final three games to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs, Jason Garrett is finally fired. Rather than bring in a veteran head coach with experience (Jim Harbaugh?), Jones opts to go with in-house offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as his head coach for 2020.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Washington Redskins
Dwayne Haskins takes over in Week 4. Even Case Keenum has to know he’s just a placeholder for first-round rookie signal-caller Dwayne Haskins. Keenum will be benched after a shutout loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears in Week 3, setting up Haskins’ first NFL start in New York in Week 4. Haskins will play well enough for the remainder of the season to keep the starting job.
Alex Smith is released after the season. There are too many quarterbacks on the Redskins’ roster. Alex Smith and Colt McCoy are both trying to rebound from brutal leg injuries. Smith’s injury was unfortunately too severe to reasonably expect a rebound. Amid numerous setbacks, the Redskins will reach an injury settlement with him following the season, and Smith will retire from the NFL.
The Trent Williams situation won’t have a happy ending. The seven-time Pro Bowler and possible future Hall of Famer is reportedly displeased with how the team’s medical staff handled his health status last year, and has insisted he won’t play for the team in 2019. And he won’t. After holding out the whole year, the Redskins will trade Williams’ rights to a contender in ’20.
Prediction: 5-11 (3rd)
New York Giants
Eli Manning/Daniel Jones go through a quarterback carousel all year. The New York Giants seem terrified to move on from longtime quarterback Eli Manning. They finally drafted his future replacement in Daniel Jones, a massive reach at the sixth overall selection. Pat Shurmur will make the move to Jones after a Week 6 loss to New England, giving Jones 10 days to prepare for a home matchup against fellow rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Jones won’t play well and the organization will go back to Manning a few weeks later, but once they’re officially eliminated from the playoff hunt, they’ll go back to Jones again. It will be awkward all year, but what else would you expect?
Saquon Barkley will follow up 2018 with an equally dominant season in 2019. He’s been blasted by the media because the Giants selected him over a quarterback last year, but if we separate Barkley from the comparison to a quarterback, he’s a phenomenal running back. He’ll rush for 1,300 yards this year, catch 750 out of the backfield, and lead the NFL with 16 total touchdowns. He will join Edgerrin James as the only players ever to start their careers with consecutive seasons with 2,000+ scrimmage yards and 15+ total touchdowns. It won’t matter though. Critics will do nothing but mock the Giants for taking a ‘generational running back’ with the No. 2 overall pick, and when the Giants finish five games under .500, the criticisms will be valid.
This is Nate Solder’s last year in New York. The Giants can get out of Nate Solder’s contract after 2019, and they will release him after a year in which he leads all offensive tackles with 14 sacks allowed. Teams pay ridiculous money for even mediocre offensive tackles, but the problem with the Giants paying $15.5 million per year for Solder is that they don’t get New England offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to go with Solder.
Prediction: 3-13 (4th)
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating. For the first time since becoming a starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers will have a new head coach, and it’s one who is just four years old than he is. First-time head coach Matt LaFleur spent just one year as playcaller for the Tennessee Titans before accepting a position as Rodgers’ new coach. Rodgers has already accomplished more than some of the top quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame, but he still has something to prove. He’ll start all 16 games but unlike last year, won’t deal with a nagging injury from Week 1 on. Rodgers will throw 33 touchdowns to just six interceptions, leading the NFL with a 114.3 passer rating.
Standout defensive lineman Kenny Clark will make his first Pro Bowl, along with stud cornerback Jaire Alexander. Clark’s presence made it easier for the Packers to part with Mike Daniels (a veteran release), while Alexander is a blossoming star at the cornerback position. Alexander will lead the NFC with six interceptions, returning two for touchdowns.
Green Bay wins their final three games (all over divisional opponents) to win the NFC North. With the Packers at 7-6 heading into three straight divisional games to close out 2019, Rodgers catches fire. He throws 11 touchdowns to no picks over the final three contests, as Green Bay wins games by 24-17, 31-10, and 34-3 scores over their divisional foes. That gives rookie head coach LaFleur a division title in his first year.
Prediction: 10-6 (1st)
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins leads Minnesota to the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings shattered the mold in 2018 when they paid free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins $84 million guaranteed, the first such fully guaranteed, multi-year contract in NFL history. While Cousins started all 16 games and put up a 70.1 completion percentage to go with a 30:10 TD:INT ratio, quarterbacks are often judged on wins and losses, and an 8-7-1 record wasn’t enough to get Minnesota into the postseason. This year, Cousins will again start all 16 games, post equally impressive stats, and the team will finally make the playoffs.
Dalvin Cook breaks out. Over his final five games in 2018, Dalvin Cook averaged 5.69 yards per attempt and scored three total touchdowns. His offensive line still isn’t a strong suit, but the organization did add a quality first-round center in Garrett Bradbury. The trick for Cook has always been staying healthy, as he’s played in just 15 of 32 career NFL games. Expecting him to suddenly stay healthy for all 16 in 2019 is probably a stretch, but it’s reasonable to see him on the field for 14 games as a workhorse back. Cook will finish with 1,102 rushing yards and nine touchdowns plus 52 receptions and 514 yards through the air.
Harrison Smith has his best year yet. Last year, the Vikings’ defense led all NFL teams by allowing just 15 touchdown passes through the air. With three different secondary players earning at least $9 million in 2019 the organization is clearly banking on strong production from that unit. Its best player is safety Harrison Smith, who will be all over the field, recording five interceptions, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, three sacks, and 101 tackles.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky drastically regresses. How you feel about the 2019 Chicago Bears depends largely on how you feel about third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Sure, he made the Pro Bowl last year, but much of that credit should go to innovative head coach Matt Nagy’s system. Trubisky is entering a pivotal year under center, and you can bet the Bears would love to see Trubisky finally start all 16 games and make bigger strides as an in-pocket passer. In 2019, Trubisky will show more inconsistency than a year ago, setting new career-worsts in interceptions (14) and fumbles (11).
The defense also regresses to the mean. The Bears won’t go all the way back to being an average unit, but historically, it’s very difficult for teams to maintain elite defenses from year to year, particularly high turnover rates and great fortune with regard to injuries. The team also lost defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to Denver. Expect the Bears to still be a top seven or eight unit, but nowhere near the one that led the NFL in points allowed in 2018.
The Bears’ kicking game will be a season-long nightmare. Chicago’s season ended last year with a partially blocked 43-yard field goal in the NFC Wild Card Game, but you’d think it was five missed extra points in one game from the way the organization has handled it this offseason. Last year’s kicker, Cody Parkey, is gone. The team whittled the spring competition from nine kickers to a second-year player named Eddy Pineiro. Pineiro has no actual in-game experience, and after three misses from him in Week 1 against Green Bay, he will be released. The Bears will bounce through four different kickers for the remainder of the year, ultimately losing four games via the difference from missed field goals.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd)
Detroit Lions
Matt Patricia will be the first head coach fired in 2019. The former Bill Belichick disciple is a smart man with a degree in aeronautical engineering, but he makes a better defensive coordinator in New England than a head coach in Detroit. The ESPN season simulator has the Lions starting 0-10 this year and Patricia being fired in-season. I don’t think the 0-10 part is realistic, but I think Patricia will be fired in early December.
Kerryon Johnson will be Detroit’s first 1,200-yard rusher since the great Barry Sanders. Johnson flashed as a rookie last year, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry on 118 rushing attempts. This year, he’ll finish with 1,206 yards and 11 touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry, earning a Pro Bowl invitation.
Darius Slay emerges as a top-five corner and the lone bright spot on an underachieving Detroit defense. The NFL interception leader in 2017 and a Pro Bowler each of the last two years, Slay is an immensely talented cover cornerback. He’s recorded multiple picks in five straight seasons and has missed just four games due to injury during that span. He’s playing for another contract extension in 2019 and he’ll get a $55 million deal after the year.
Prediction: 5-11 (4th)
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees has his finest year yet – and then retires. He’s 40 years old but like Tom Brady, life has treated Drew Brees well. He’s been in the same system his whole time in New Orleans – same head coach and same offensive coordinator. He’s blessed with an abundance of skill position help, namely Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and quality offensive tackles. Relying more on screen passes to Kamara than ever before, Brees breaks his own NFL record by completing 76.4 percent of his throws. He goes 11 games in a row without an interception, finishing at 32 touchdowns to just four picks (but losing the MVP to Patrick Mahomes’ gaudy stats). After an amazing playoff run which concludes with Brees besting Brady in the Super Bowl, Brees hangs it up. It’s a staggering conclusion to the career of one of the five greatest quarterbacks to ever play.
Jared Cook tops the 1,000-yard mark. Is there a better place for a tight end with Jared Cook’s athleticism than New Orleans? Sean Payton brought out the best in Jimmy Graham and he’ll do the best for Cook, who will top the 1,000-yard plateau for the first time in his NFL career at age 32.
Marcus Davenport records 10.5 sacks. The Saints traded away their 2019 first-round pick to move up in last year’s draft to acquire Marcus Davenport, which is a lot of draft capital for one pass rusher. That also means the Saints enter Drew Brees’ age-40 season without even a first-round pick with which to draft his successor. Davenport had just 4.5 sacks as a rookie in ’18, filling in as a situational edge rusher who didn’t start any games. But he will break out in 2019, teaming with Cameron Jordan to give New Orleans two strong pass rushers off the edge.
Prediction: 12-4 (1st)
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan has his first 5,000-yard season. Several things are working in Matt Ryan’s favor in Atlanta. First of all, he’s really, really good, but doesn’t seem to get the national recognition you’d expect. He’s never injured. And he has an insanely talented group of pass catchers in Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper. Ryan will throw for 5,132 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions, unofficially finishing third in the MVP voting behind Patrick Mahomes/Drew Brees.
Julio Jones becomes the first wide receiver since Jerry Rice to lead the NFL in receiving yards three times. Are you surprised Randy Moss never did this? Julio Jones is entering his ninth season and he’s 30 years old, but he hasn’t lost a step. In fact, he’s a better player now than he was in his early years, largely because he’s shed the injury label. Jones will play all 16 games for the third year in a row and post a stunning 120/1,659/12 receiving line. That will be the first time in his career he tops the double-digit touchdown mark.
Atlanta puts forth a top-10 defense. Pro Bowl safety Keanu Neal missed 15 games a year ago. Pro Bowl linebacker Deion Jones missed 10. 2017 first-round pick Takk McKinley is about to break out. Add in Desmond Trufant, Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley (maybe), Ricardo Allen, and Damontae Kazee, and this defense will finish top 10 in both points scored and yards allowed.
Prediction: 11-5 (2nd)
Carolina Panthers
Injuries begin to take their toll on Cam Newton. He misses four games due to various ailments while posting career-lows in passing yards (3,019), touchdown passes (16), rushing yards (312), and rushing touchdowns (3). Newton has already dealt with offseason shoulder surgery and a preseason foot injury that saw him in a walking boot. The Panther semi-drafted his long-term replacement in Will Grier this offseason. Expect Grier to get his chance to play in 2019.
Christian McCaffrey breaks his own NFL running back record by catching 113 passes. Christian McCaffrey is perhaps the smoothest pass catcher we’ve ever seen for a running back. He’s started his career with consecutive 80-catch seasons, including a positional record 107 in 2018. This year, he’ll up that total to 113, including six games of double-digit receptions.
Ron Rivera gets fired. There have been some changes in Carolina – Cam Newton’s health is deteriorating, Ryan Kalil is gone, and Julius Peppers has retired. Ron Rivera has won a bunch of games under the helm, but a 4-10 start will lead to his finally being fired.
Prediction: 6-10 (3rd)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Jameis Winston/Bruce Arians works really well – for a few games. Bruce Arians is a quarterback guru, and some say he’s the best chance of saving Jameis Winston’s NFL career. In their first three games together, Winston will throw for nine touchdowns to no interceptions, winning NFC Offensive Player of the Month. And then comes one of those skids we’ve come to expect from Winston, where he tosses 10 interceptions in the next five games, eventually being benched… for Blaine Gabbert. Arians will eventually go back to Winston, because no coach wants to play Gabbert. But after the year, Winston will hit the free agent market.
O.J. Howard becomes a First-Team AP All-Pro. Oh my, is O.J. Howard talented. Teams don’t typically take tight ends in the first 20 picks in the draft, but Howard’s is pretty special. He was the top tight end in the nation in high school, then ran a 4.51 at 250 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine. He’s going to top 1,200 receiving yards in his third NFL year in 2019, hauling in 12 touchdowns as well.
Devin White makes the Pro Bowl. Did you know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted five defensive players in the first four rounds of the draft? Devin White was their prized selection at the fifth overall selection. He was a tackling machine at LSU, then ran a 4.42 coming out of college. He’ll intercept passes in his first three NFL games and end the year with six takeaways.
Prediction: 6-10 (4th)
NFC WEST
Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff gets record money. If Carson Wentz got $107.9 million guaranteed, don’t you think Jared Goff would want every bit as much? He’s got a much cleaner injury history and has been to a Super Bowl. The Rams will eventually sign Goff to a five-year deal worth $156 million, including $113 million guaranteed, just topping Dak Prescott and setting a new record for guaranteed money that will last until Patrick Mahomes signs his much-awaited extension. (Update: Goff has signed a deal worth $110 million guaranteed).
Robert Woods becomes a top-five receiver. Last year, Troy Aikman called Robert Woods the most complete receiver in the game. We all know that wasn’t quite true. But this year, Woods will earn his first Pro Bowl and finish third in the NFL with 1,448 receiving yards. Brandin Cooks may be the team’s highest-paid wideout, but Woods will supplant him as the best.
Aaron Donald does it again, tying J.J. Watt and Lawrence Taylor by winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards. Donald becomes the first player to win it three years in a row. His 17.5 sacks lead the NFL and he joins LT/Reggie White/Patrick Willis as the only defensive players since the NFL-AFL merger to earn five First-Team AP All-Pro selections in his first six seasons.
Prediction: 11-5 (1st)
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo finally puts it all together and plays all 16 games. You could make a case that no NFL player so far has earned more money for doing less than Jimmy Garoppolo (although Sam Bradford has a strong case). This is finally the year everything clicks for Jimmy GQ. He starts every game and operates Kyle Shanahan’s system flawlessly, averaging a ridiculous 8.5 yards per attempt, throwing 31 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions, and twice winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week.
The Niners record six times more interceptions than they did in 2018. Did you know the 49ers as a team recorded two interceptions while allowing 35 touchdown passes last year? You wouldn’t expect that with Richard Sherman in their secondary. In fact, Sherman started 14 games without recording a single pick. He’ll come up with four just himself in 2019.
This pass rush is elite. Has any team ever invested as much work into their defensive line as San Francisco in recent years? The organization drafted Arik Armstead with the 17th overall pick in 2015, DeForest Buckner with the seventh overall pick in 2016, Solomon Thomas with the third overall pick in 2017, and then Nick Bosa with the second overall selection in 2019. They also traded for Dee Ford as a pass rusher off the edge. Armstead/Thomas haven’t quite lived up to their draft stock yet, but Buckner has and Bosa will, and with all of them playing together, the Niners finish the year with close to 50 sacks.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson makes it 128 for 128. By starting all 16 games in 2019, Russell Wilson will become just the 11th player in NFL history (and second quarterback, after Peyton Manning) to start his career 128 for 128. After the retirement of Doug Baldwin and a lack of dynamic pass catchers (outside of Tyler Lockett), Seattle will lean even more heavily on the run than last year. Wilson will pass the ball just 401 times, throwing 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Seattle’s rushing offense leads the NFL in rushing yards for the second straight year. Last year, former seventh-round pick Chris Carson took the lead in the backfield, posting a 247/1,151/9 rushing line, while rookie first-round pick Rashaad Penny handled the ball just 85 times. Expect more of a split in carries in 2019, with Carson posting a 176/872/4 rushing line and Penny putting up 189/817/5 of his own. Factor in 501 rushing yards from Wilson, and Seattle tops the NFL once again.
Jadeveon Clowney records eight sacks but doesn’t get re-signed. A surprise trade for Jadeveon Clowney gives Seattle a talented edge rusher that can finally take Michael Bennett’s place. Clowney is a very good player who won’t quite put up the numbers Seattle is looking for, and he will walk in free agency.
Prediction: 9-7 (3rd)
Arizona Cardinals
It’s the Kyler Murray show this year. If the 2019 Arizona Cardinals will be anything, they’ll be interesting. Unconventional head coach Kliff Kingsbury has openly gushed about his new quarterback Kyler Murray, and he will be employing the Air Raid offense to account for Murray’s skill set. Murray doesn’t have the size you’d expect from a typical NFL quarterback, but he will still win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019. In 14 starts, Murray will pass for 3,476 yards and 24 touchdowns while adding 439 yards and five scores on the ground.
David Johnson is back. Kingsbury’s offense will feature David Johnson out wide on a regular basis, which is a much-needed change from the way Johnson was used in 2018. Johnson will finish the year with a 204/954/5 rushing line plus 89/904/3 out of the backfield.
Arizona starts the year 5-2 before fading down the stretch. The Kliff Kingsbury offense is at full effect in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions, with Kyler Murray throwing for three touchdowns and Arizona winning, 30-28. After a loss in Week 2, Arizona wins four straight, including wins over Seattle and Atlanta. Defensive coordinators eventually adjust to Murray’s style of passing, and a tough second-half schedule that includes the Los Angeles Rams twice, a road game at Seattle, and Pittsburgh knock Arizona out of the playoff hunt. Still, it’s a successful first year for the Cardinals.
Prediction: 7-9 (4th)
NFL Awards
NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Player of Year: Patrick Mahomes
Defensive Player of Year: Aaron Donald
Offensive Rookie of Year: Kyler Murray
Defensive Rookie of Year: Devin Bush
Coach of Year: Frank Reich
Comeback Player of Year: Carson Wentz
NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Edition
(6) Los Angeles Chargers over (3) Kansas City Chiefs: Another Andy Reid home playoff loss.
(4) Indianapolis Colts over (5) Houston Texans: Justin Houston blows up Houston’s offensive line and Jacoby Brissett rushes for a pair of touchdowns.
(3) Philadelphia Eagles over (6) Minnesota Vikings: Carson Wentz is sharp in his first-ever playoff game, posting a 109 passer rating.
(4) Green Bay Packers over (5) Atlanta Falcons: Aaron Rodgers outduels Matt Ryan in a high-scoring rematch of the 2016 NFC Championship Game.
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Edition
(1) New England Patriots over (6) Los Angeles Chargers: Brady/Belichick don’t lose these playoff games.
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers over (4) Indianapolis Colts: Pittsburgh’s defense stifles a Brissett-led offense, winning 17-6.
(1) New Orleans Saints over (4) Green Bay Packers: Brees vs. Rodgers? I’m in. They combine for eight touchdown passes. Brees wins, 34-31.
(2) Los Angeles Rams over (3) Philadelphia Eagles: The 2016 NFL draft class’s top two quarterbacks meet in head-to-head matchup. Sean McVay finally beats his nemesis, Doug Pederson.
NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Game Edition
(1) New England Patriots over (2) Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s the ninth consecutive conference championship game for Brady/Belichick and 14th in all. It’s the sixth conference championship game appearance for Ben Roethlisberger. He’ll fall to 0-3 against Brady in January.
(1) New Orleans Saints over (2) Los Angeles Rams: Think we’ll hear anything about last year’s missed officiating call in the week heading up to this game? The Saints win smoothly, 31-20, with no referee blemishes.
NFL Playoffs: Super Bowl Edition
(1) New Orleans Saints over (1) New England Patriots: Brees vs. Brady in a battle of 40-year old quarterbacks. Brees is absolutely surgical in this one, posting a 150.2 passer rating and edging Brady, 37-31. After the game, he retires as a champion and surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer.
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