- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
There’s no need to overthink this pick and the Jaguars won’t. Trevor Lawrence is as locked in of a first round pick as we’ve seen since Andrew Luck to the Indianapolis Colts in 2012. He’s even started donating to Jacksonville charities.
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Trading Sam Darnold tells you the Jets are moving in a different direction, and drafting Zach Wilson will make them the first team in the Super Bowl era to draft a QB in the top three picks twice in a four-year span. Wilson was essentially anonymous a year ago and now he’s on the verge of becoming a top-two draft pick.
3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Whether the 49ers pick Mac Jones, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance, they will have surrendered three first round picks for this quarterback. The reports saying it’s Mac Jones could all be a smokescreen, but he’s also said to be the most NFL-ready QB. In a division featuring Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford, Kyle Shanahan needs to win now.
4. Denver Broncos (via trade): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
The Broncos know Drew Lock (or Teddy Bridgewater) isn’t the answer, and they won’t wait around to see if a quarterback is the answer at pick #9. Denver trades a 2022.1 and a 2022.3 to move up five spots to acquire Trey Lance, the 6’6” signal-caller from North Dakota State.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The smart thing for Cincinnati to do would be to select the best offensive tackle available but the Bengals won’t be able to resist Kyle Pitts. A good tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and Pitts is exactly that. Besides, the Bengals used a 2019 first round pick on Jonah Williams, and he’s the projected long-term left tackle.
6. Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
What’s the best way to find out if your quarterback is good enough? Give him a stud wide receiver to make life easier for him. The Dolphins have to see what they have with Tua Tagovailoa, and Ja’Marr Chase is a bonafide No. 1 receiver in the making.
7. Detroit Lions: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Detroit’s receiver corps is absolutely bare, and either DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle has to be intriguing. But new head coach Dan Campbell is a ‘break your kneecaps’ kind of guy and the best offensive lineman in the draft is a good foundational piece.
8. Carolina Panthers: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
With Justin Fields still on the board, Carolina has to at least consider it, but it’s worth surrounding Sam Darnold with a quality offensive lineman to see if he can be the long-term franchise QB. Slater has the versatility to play either tackle or guard. Ideally, he becomes their new Trai Turner.
9. New England Patriots (via trade): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Bill Belichick has never drafted a QB in the first round, but then again, when has he needed to? Cam Newton felt out of place in Foxborough last year and his incentive-laden contract for 2021 suggests he isn’t even the guaranteed starter. In this scenario, New England trades up, Atlanta moves down again, and the Patriots get their new signal-caller.
10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Dallas would probably love to trade up for Kyle Pitts, but they’ll have to give up too much, so in return, they settle for the best defensive player in the draft. Patrick Surtain II would shore up a secondary that never recovered from letting Byron Jones walk in free agency after 2019.
11. New York Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
This would be a Philly fan’s worst nightmare, but the Giants need to see if Daniel Jones is any good, and imagine DeVonta Smith paired with Kenny Golladay and a healthy Saquon Barkley in 2021. Concerns about Smith’s size are valid, especially after he’s passed on any and every opportunity to weigh in, but his collegiate production speaks for itself.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Imagine the phone calls to WIP the next day if this happens, but brace yourself. Howie Roseman loves his defensive linemen – think Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, and Derek Barnett, all of whom played an integral role in the franchise’s Super Bowl championship. Barnett in particular is on an overpaid fifth-year option and likely won’t be back in 2022, so Kwity Paye becomes the replacement.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Offensive line makes a lot of sense for a Chargers team that always seems to be weak in that area. The team has its long-term quarterback in Justin Herbert, and absolutely needs to keep him upright. Darrisaw isn’t quite Sewell or Slater, but he’s the next-best remaining offensive lineman.
14. Minnesota Vikings: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami (FL)
Someone is going to pounce on Jaelan Phillips’ skillset, and Minnesota would be a good fit. Everson Griffen is already gone and Danielle Hunter is reportedly unhappy with his contract. What Phillips brings is the ability to be a Day 1 starter for a Vikings team that was fifth-last in sacks in 2020.
15. Atlanta Falcons (via trade): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
New Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot would win the draft if he can trade down twice and still pick up a playmaking wide receiver in Jaylen Waddle. This would increase the team’s chances to trade Julio Jones, who is set to carry a $23 million cap hit in 2021. Waddle is explosive with the ball in his hands, and even if the team retains Julio, a three-receiver set with Julio/Ridley/Waddle would be dynamic.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Caleb Farley’s back issues could see him fall right out of the first round, but his upside is so great that he’s worth a gamble for Arizona. The Cardinals will be without Patrick Peterson next year for the first time in a decade, and if Farley checks out medically, he has the ability to be a Pro Bowler as a rookie.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
This is simply a best player available pick for the Raiders, who have to be thrilled to see Micah Parsons fall to them in the second half of the first round. Las Vegas’ defense ranked 30th in points allowed last year and could look at any position from edge rusher to linebacker to cornerback to safety.
18. Miami Dolphins: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC
Miami’s interior offensive line is a work in progress. If they can grab Ja’Marr Chase at pick six and a qualify versatile lineman like Alijah Vera-Tucker at pick 18, life becomes much easier for Tua Tagovailoa. Vera-Tucker would most likely slot in at one of the guard spots for 2021.
19. Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, EDGE, Notre Dame
If Washington is fortunate enough to land Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at pick 19, they legitimately will boast one of the finest defenses in the NFL. They already have Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan, and Montez Sweat up front, and Owusu-Koramoah is one of the new positionless defensive stars that will enter the NFL much like Isaiah Simmons last year.
20. Chicago Bears: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Chicago probably expects Jaycee Horn to be gone by the time they make their selection at pick #20, but given that they released Kyle Fuller this spring, they would jump all over this pick. Horn has NFL bloodlines and often traveled with the opposing team’s best receiver in college. That’s a good skill to have in a division that includes Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, and Allen Robinson.
21. Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
The Colts just traded for Carson Wentz and after the number of sacks he took last year, they need a replacement left tackle for recently-retired Anthony Castonzo. Ideally, they’d be hoping Christian Darrisaw would fall to them at pick #21, but if he’s not there, they reach for an offensive tackle and go with Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield.
22. Tennessee Titans: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Tennessee needs a star wide receiver opposite A.J. Brown, and Rashod Bateman has good size (6’1”, 210) and would start in Week 1. The Titans have been rumored to be linked to Julio Jones but Bateman is a much younger and cheaper option.
23. New York Jets: Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
With the pick the Jets got from trading Jamal Adams to Seattle, GM Joe Douglas would be smart to surround new quarterback Zach Wilson with a franchise left tackle. Samuel Cosmi was a three-year starter at the University of Texas and brings ridiculous size (6’7”, 310) to the NFL.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
The Steelers have to look at either offensive line or running back here, and given just how pitiful their running game was a year ago (32nd in both rushing yards and yards per carry), Najee Harris is too good to pass up. Running backs are devalued but picking a runner at the bottom of the first round is much different than taking one in the top 10 picks.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Teams that draft their franchise quarterback in the first round often follow that up with a left tackle to protect him. Think Matt Ryan/Sam Baker in 2008 or Tua Tagovailoa/Austin Jackson in 2020. Teven Jenkins split time at both right and left tackle last year, although he’d probably start at right tackle in the NFL.
26. Cleveland Browns: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
If the Browns do pick Greg Newsome, they’ll have spent premium picks on corners in three of the last five years (Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, and Newsome). A team can never have too many cornerbacks though, and despite struggling with injuries throughout college, Newsome is a draft riser who could even go in the top 20 picks.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
This is a straight-up best player available pick for Baltimore, with the rich getting richer. Christian Barmore would see rotational snaps as a rookie, working in behind Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams, but both of them are on the wrong side of 30. Barmore would be another young talented defensive player on a team that already has Patrick Queen, Marcus Peters, and Marlon Humphrey.
28. New Orleans Saints: Asante Samuel, Jr., CB, Florida State
It’s tempting to give New Orleans a quarterback here, but I think Sean Payton is legitimately interested in seeing what Jameis Winston (and Taysom Hill?) can do here. Asante Samuel, Jr. still on the board is a pick the Saints have to make here. The son of an All-Pro corner, Samuel, Jr. didn’t allow a single touchdown pass in coverage in 2020.
29. Green Bay Packers: Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
Finally, Green Bay gives Aaron Rodgers a playmaking wide receiver that he so desperately needs. The fact that Rodgers won NFL MVP last year with Davante Adams and a bunch of nobodies was miraculous. Terrace Marshall has impressive size at 6’3”, 200, and he’s a massive upgrade over Equanimeous St. Brown, Allen Lazard, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
30. Buffalo Bills: Azeez Olujari, EDGE, Georgia
It has to be tempting for the Bills to take a running back here, but Azeez Olujari is a good enough prospect that they can’t pass on him with the 30th pick. Olujari might have to put on a little weight to keep from being simply a situational pass rusher for the Bills, but he’s a good foundational piece in a division that could feature three QBs under age 24.
31. Baltimore Ravens (via trade): Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The Ravens got this pick when they traded Orlando Brown to the defending AFC champions, and trading back out of the first round would be such a logical move for this organization. If they stay here, shoring up the safety corps would make sense. Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott aren’t bad, but when you have a chance at Moehrig, you have to take it.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
The rich get richer, and it’s not even fair. Antonio Brown hasn’t been re-signed yet, but the Buccaneers will add Kadarius Toney to a wide receiver corps that already includes Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. At this rate, Tom Brady legitimately may play until he’s 50 years old.
