AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Projected Record: 12-5 (division winner)

• Josh Allen puts up his fourth consecutive season of 35 TD passes and five or more rushing scores; all other QBs in history have combined for five seasons.
• The Stefon Diggs noise gets louder and louder, even as he’s peppered with an absurd amount of targets. The Bills force feed him passes even late in games, quietly add some more guaranteed money to an already very fair contract, and he finishes with the first 200-target season since Julio Jones in 2015.
• The Bills really miss Leslie Frazier. Asking Sean McDermott to step in and call the defense for a year in Frazier’s absence will show how valuable Frazier was to this team.

 

Miami Dolphins

Projected Record: 11-6 (wild card)

• Tua Tagovailoa starts all 17 games, completes 72% of his passes, and throws for 4,500 yards while earning a five-year contract extension to stay in Miami.
• A bulked-up Raheem Mostert finishes with 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns.
• Vic Fangio works wonders for this defense. One of the most influential football minds of this century, Fangio’s quarters-heavy scheme is popularizing the NFL with nearly 25% of all teams utilizing it. There’s a wealth of talent on this unit, even with Jalen Ramsey out until December. Miami finishes top five in sacks, fewest points allowed, and passer rating allowed.

 

New England Patriots

Projected Record: 10-7 (wild card)

• The Patriots lead the NFL in defensive DVOA, scoring defense, and total defense. Coaxing elite defense out of his team is what Bill Belichick does.
• First-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez starts all 17 games and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
• A rejuvenated Mac Jones tosses 28 touchdowns and looks closer to “maybe being the franchise quarterback” than “probably not being the franchise quarterback.”

 

New York Jets

Projected Record: 10-7

• A shoddy offensive line allows Aaron Rodgers to get sacked a league-high 52 times in 15 starts.
• The defense doesn’t resemble the 1985 Bears as D.J. Reed predicted, but it’s a top-five unit.
• The Jets lose a win-and-in Week 18 game at Bill Belichick, just missing the playoffs despite 10 wins.

 

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Record: 12-5 (division winner)

• Knee issues? No worries for Joe Burrow. He plays like a league MVP candidate from Week 1.
• Ja’Marr Chase becomes the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history.
• Lou Anarumo solidifies his case as a future head coach.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Projected Record: 11-6 (wild card)

• The Ravens go from rarely an 11 personnel team to largely an 11 personnel team. Zay Flowers leads the team with 1,100 yards receiving as a rookie.
• Todd Monken works wonders for Lamar Jackson, who throws for 4,200 yards and rushes for 700 more.
• Kyle Hamilton excels in the star role, playing a hybrid corner/safety role with snaps in the box as a linebacker too.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Record: 10-7

• Jaylen Warren becomes the starting running back by mid-October.
• Kenny Pickett takes a major step forward and George Pickens becomes a bonafide No. 1 wide receiver.
• Another year, another winning season for Mike Tomlin, one of the best to ever do it.

 

Cleveland Browns

Projected Record: 7-10

• The Deshaun Watson contract looks like a massive mistake. He takes too many sacks, forces throws, and misses six games due to injuries.
• Myles Garrett puts up the 14^th 20-sack season since the creation of the stat (1982).
• Kevin Stefanski is fired with a week left in the season.

 

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 13-4 (division winner)

• This is the best team in the NFL in 2023. Playing against the AFC South certainly helps, as the Jaguars go 6-0 in the division.
• How good of a HC/QB combo are Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence? Under Pederson’s tutelage, Lawrence clears 5,000 yards and wins NFL MVP.
• Travon Walker takes a step forward on defense. Foyesade Oluokun tackles everything in sight. But Tyson Campbell is the real star at cornerback.

 

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 7-10

• Mike Vrabel squeezes seven wins out of a Tennessee team that probably shouldn’t win more than four in 2023.
• Ryan Tannehill loses his starting job to Will Levis, who gives it back to Tannehill, who gives it back to Levis.
• Tennessee trades Pro Bowl S Kevin Byard to the Eagles right before the October deadline.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 6-11

• The Jonathan Taylor situation gets unbelievably ugly. After failing to find a trade partner for Taylor in October, the Colts put him on IR, claiming his knee has worsened. Taylor and Jim Irsay go at it on Twitter. Taylor doesn’t see a single snap in 2023.
• Anthony Richardson’s numbers aren’t great (think early Justin Fields), but there’s clear potential, and he has a soothing mentor in Shane Steichen.
• The outside cornerback tandem of JuJu Brents, Darrell Baker, and Dallis Flowers is too young and inexperienced, and costs the team in many games.

 

Houston Texans

Projected Record: 4-13

• Despite the record, DeMeco Ryans has this team trending in the right direction.
• C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson look like building blocks.
• There’s just not enough defensive talent. For the fourth straight year, Houston finishes bottom six in points allowed, total yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed.

 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Record: 11-6 (division winner)

• No Chiefs receiver exceeds 750 yards in 2023, but no matter for Patrick Mahomes. It’s another 4,800-yard, 40-touchdown campaign for the game’s best player.
• Kansas City can’t work out an agreement with All-Pro DT Chris Jones and trades him to Chicago before Week 3. KC gets a 1 and a 4 back but finishes 25^th in sacks without Jones.
• KC loses some early games, maybe even dropping to 2-3 or so. No worries. They’re to the NFL what LeBron was to basketball in his peak. The regular season doesn’t matter when you’re all but assured of a conference championship berth.

 

Denver Broncos

Projected Record: 8-9

• Sean Payton gets surprisingly competent results out of Russell Wilson, but still benches him in Week 16 to see what Jarrett Stidham can do.
• Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey are fantastic additions to the offensive line.
• A power struggle between Payton and GM George Paton results in the GM being fired in January. No one can look past the disastrous Wilson contract (and understandably so).

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Record: 8-9

• Justin Herbert breaks the single-season record for passing yards. New OC Kellen Moore will be a godsend for Herbert fantasy owners (as will the addition of first-round receiver, Quentin Johnston). Herbert’s aDOT (average depth of target) will rise from 6.4 in 2022 (31^st) to 9.2 (3^rd).
• The defense doesn’t improve. Brandon Staley was hailed as a defensive genius, and even without Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, you’d think he’d still work some magic with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. Staley is fired after the season.
• So many stars, so little production. The Chargers blow six fourth quarter leads, including three of 14 or more points, taking ‘chargering’ to a new level.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Projected Record: 3-14

• Aidan O’Connell leads all Raiders QBs in games started (9) in 2023. Count me in on the NFL’s preseason darling. Factoring in O’Connell’s impressive play as a rookie and Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury history, O’Connell will definitely see the field.
• Josh McDaniels is fired in mid-December. This will mark the end of his head coaching days. He’ll be Bill Belichick’s OC by 2024.
• The defense is an absolutely unmitigated disaster, finishing last in points allowed, yards allowed, and DVOA. The Chandler Jones situation never goes away and the organization suspends him for contract detrimental to the team.

 

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Record: 12-5 (divison winner)

• Jalen Hurts sets a new single-season QB record with 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023. His volume of carries declines (the Eagles know he can’t expect to sustain 150+ carries per year), but it’s where Hurts gets his carries that will stand out. When the Eagles have the ball inside the opponent’s five yard line, it will be a Hurts designed run every time.
• The Dallas Goedert breakout season finally happens. Everyone knows #88 is a top 5-7 tight end, but he becomes George Kittle in 2023. Goedert starts all 17 games, posting 1,195 yards and nine touchdowns while crushing bodies in the running game. The screen to Goedert is as unstoppable as the Jalen Hurts push sneak.
• Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith look like immediate hits as rookies. Carter finishes with 8.5 sacks and Smith with 7.5. Do the Eagles clear 70 sacks again? No. But 52 sacks gets the job done.

 

Dallas Cowboys

Projected Record: 10-7 (wild card)

• Trey Lance doesn’t start a game (and isn’t even elevated above third string), but every Dak Prescott poor game gives fodder to Undisputed and First Take.
• Less is more with Tony Pollard. He’s incredible productive – when his snaps are managed. Dallas signs Leonard Fournette in Week 2 and he handles the team’s goal line carries, finishing with 12 touchdowns in 2023.
• That Trevon Diggs/Stephon Gilmore cornerback combination is lockdown.

 

New York Giants

Projected Record: 8-9

• Daniel Jones continues to look like the Kansas City version of Alex Smith. You can win with him – if you have enough talent elsewhere.
• Jalin Hyatt catches just 28 balls but averages 24 yards per reception, including three touchdowns of 50 or more yards.
• The defensive line becomes what Washington’s defensive line should have been – ferocious. Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Kayvon Thibodeaux are all Pro Bowlers.

 

Washington Commanders

Projected Record: 7-10

• Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson become a top seven wide receiver tandem. McLaurin clears 1,500 yards while Dotson tops 1,000.
• The Commanders trade Chase Young to San Francisco in Week 6.
• Ron Rivera is finally fired after 2023. He’s a classy guy and a good spokesman for a dysfunctional franchise, but this will mark six consecutive losing seasons.

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

Projected Record: 9-8 (division winner)

• All the talent on Green Bay’s defense results in nine wins and a playoff berth. Jordan Love is starting a playoff game while Aaron Rodgers is not.
• Luke Musgrave is an immediate contributor. Rookie tight ends can take time to produce, but this second-rounder will be a key piece of the future from day 1.
• A defense with eight first round picks starts to look like a defense with eight first round picks.

 

Detroit Lions

Projected Record: 9-8

• Jared Goff isn’t just a stopgap. The former No. 1 overall pick throws for 5,200 yards and 36 touchdowns. GM Brad Holmes rewards him with a four-year, $195 million deal ($48.75M AAV) after 2023.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown catches 135 passes. Jahmyr Gibbs catches 90.
• With all this offensive talent, why aren’t the Lions better? One word: defense. Fresh off a last place finish in total yards allowed, the Lions finish bottom three again.

 

Minnesota Vikings

Projected Record: 8-9

• Even the most optimistic Vikings fans knew last year’s 13-4 record was a fluke, but reality hits hard here. The league’s worst guard tandem and a pair of inexperienced cornerbacks are flaring weaknesses all season.
• Kirk Cousins finishes his final season in Minnesota (hello, San Francisco).
• Ty Chandler takes Alexander Mattison’s job by Week 7.

 

Chicago Bears

Projected Record: 6-11

• It’s the worst case scenario for Bears fans: They still don’t know if Justin Fields is the long-term answer. He rushes for 1,000 yards again but still struggles in traditional dropback passing situations.
• Roschon Johnson leads the running backs in rushing yards.
• The secondary’s young high draft picks (Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Tyrique Stevenson) show promise.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Projected Record: 10-7 (division winner)

• The league’s easiest schedule propels New Orleans to a first place finish behind strong play from Derek Carr.
• Michael Thomas’ recurring injuries make him an afterthought but Chris Olave stakes his case as a top-five receiver in the league.
• Dennis Allen’s defense – which showed remarkable late-season improvement in 2022 – finishes as a top-five unit in 2023.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Projected Record: 9-8 (wild card)

• Atlanta finishes top five in offensive DVOA and Arthur Smith is compared to Kyle Shanahan for his ability to coax strong results without having a top-tier quarterback.
• Bijan Robinson is utilized in a 2021 Deebo Samuel role and wins NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• A surprisingly resurgent season from Jeff Okudah allows Atlanta to play more man coverage than any team in the NFL.

 

Carolina Panthers

Projected Record: 7-10

• Bryce Young will start all 17 games and despite finishing around 20^th in many efficiency stats (passer rating, QBR, EPA/dropback, success rate), Carolina has its quarterback of the future.
• Brian Burns has all the leverage, and he knows it. After failing to agree to a contract throughout September, Burns forces a trade to New England and Belichick rewards him with an unBelichicklike $28M per year extension.
• Jaycee Horn earns a First-Team All-Pro bid at cornerback.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Record: 4-13

• Tampa Bay trades away Mike Evans in October.
• It’s a rotating ineffective quarterback carousel of Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, and probably someone off the street.
• Tristan Wirfs gives up two sacks in the first three weeks, openly complains about playing LT, and the Buccaneers move him back to the right side.

 

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

Projected Record: 12-5 (division winner)

• Outside of Philly, this may be the most complete roster in the NFL. Pete Carroll’s 2022 draft class was phenomenal, but he gets equally strong production from 2023 first-rounders Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba plus second-round running back Zach Charbonnet.
• Geno Smith follows up his unprecedented 2022 breakout campaign with another strong year.
• Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen are the best young CB tandem in the league.

 

San Francisco 49ers

Projected Record: 11-6 (wild card)

• SF starts three different QBs in 2023 and still finishes top 10 in dropback EPA.
• Fresh off a staggering $34M AAV contract, Nick Bosa shows he’s the game’s best defensive player. He racks up – wait for it – 25 sacks, shattering the single-season record by 2.5.
• Kyle Shanahan falls in love with another team’s running back and trades a 4 in mid-October, much to the chagrin of Christian McCaffrey fantasy owners.

 

Los Angeles Rams

Projected Record: 4-13

• Cooper Kupp misses eight games due to his hamstring injury. The Rams beg teams to take Matthew Stafford at the trade deadline but don’t get a competent offer.
• LAR trades away Aaron Donald at midseason. The 3-5 Rams realize it’s better to recoup a high draft pick for arguably the greatest defensive player of all-time than let him play out his last days for a losing franchise.
• Raheem Morris becomes the in-house replacement when Sean McVay inexplicably retires from burnout in mid-December.

 

Arizona Cardinals

Projected Record: 3-14

• Arizona’s new GM Monti Ossenfort doesn’t let Kyler Murray take a snap in 2023.
• Jonathan Gannon becomes (or already is?) the least-liked and most-mocked coach in the NFL. Multiple players publicly take shots at his leadership.
• Nick Rallis is already the youngest defensive coordinator in the NFL (29 years old) and despite poor defensive production from a roster devoid of talent, there are already head coaching whispers about him.

 

NFL Awards

NFL MVP: Trevor Lawrence

Offensive Player of Year: Ja’Marr Chase

Defensive Player of Year: Nick Bosa

Offensive Rookie of Year: Bijan Robinson

Defensive Rookie of Year: Christian Gonzalez

Coach of Year: Matt LaFleur

Comeback Player of Year: Damar Hamlin

 

2023 Offensive/Defensive Coordinators Who Will Become Head Coaches in 2024:

Ejiro Evero, DC, Carolina Panthers

Ben Johnson, OC, Detroit Lions

Ken Dorsey, OC, Buffalo Bills

Steve Wilks, DC, San Francisco 49ers

 

NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Edition

2 Buffalo over 7 New England: Remember when New England used to own Buffalo? Josh Allen torches the NFL’s No. 1 defense for five total scores in a 38-13 rout.

3 Cincinnati over 6 Baltimore: Lamar Jackson’s playoff struggles continue, as Joe Cool improves to 3-0 in first playoff games.

4 Kansas City over 5 Miami: Patrick Mahomes rolls through Vic Fangio’s defense in Mahomes’ first-ever wild card appearance.

 

2 Seattle over 7 Atlanta: Pete Carroll’s experience prevails in a nail-biting 20-17 walkoff win.

3 New Orleans over 6 Dallas: Mike McCarthy runs a double reverse fake punt option wildcat lateral bootleg in the closing seconds but comes up short, 24-20. Derek Car gets his first playoff win.

5 San Francisco over 4 Green Bay: Remarkably, SF wins its fifth postseason game over Green Bay since the 2012 season – in five tries. SF’s starting quarterback is either Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Josh Johnson, or Tom Brady.

 

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Edition

4 Kansas City over 1 Jacksonville: It’s a tough playoff loss for Doug Pederson, who loses to his former boss (both when Doug was a QB for the Eagles and assistant for KC) for the second consecutive season. This time, Mahomes is on the road for the first time ever in his playoff career.

3 Cincinnati over 2 Buffalo: One of the NFL’s blossoming young rivalries sees a thriller of a game. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen combine for nine total touchdowns in a 42-38 Bengals win.

 

1 Philadelphia over 5 San Francisco: Think there will be any talking before this game? After Deebo Samuel goes on the Pat McAfee Show and says Jalen Hurts is only good because he can run, Hurts finishes with 346 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, a 127.8 passer rating – and zero rushing attempts.

2 Seattle over 3 New Orleans: It’s a low-scoring defensive battle between Pete Carroll and Dennis Allen, two of the game’s best defensive minds. A Devon Witherspoon pick-six wins it in overtime.

 

NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Edition

4 Kansas City over 3 Cincinnati: This would be three straight years of Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow in the AFC Championship Game. Are the Chiefs-Bengals the new 49ers-Cowboys of the ‘90s? Expect this game to be thrilling, probably a one-score game with two minutes to go, but KC will find a way to win.

1 Philadelphia over 2 Seattle: It’s notoriously difficult to go back to the Super Bowl, but I’m not sure any NFC team can dethrone the roster depth and talent of this Eagles. Defense shines in this one with the Eagles winning 17-14 behind five sacks from the pass rush.

 

NFL Playoffs: Super Bowl Edition

Kansas City over Philadelphia: Mahomes-Hurts Part II in this thriller. There’s no Hurts fumble to Nick Bolton in this one, with Hurts throwing for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns, plus one on the ground. But it’s dynasty time for Kansas City. Mahomes passes for 351 yards and three touchdowns with Kansas City winning 27-21.