No one could have predicted what the 2015 NFL season had in store for us.
Apparently you can win a Super Bowl without a great quarterback – just ask the Denver Broncos, whose historic defense was enough to overcome Peyton Manning’s late-career struggles, to put ‘struggles’ mildly. Cam Newton took that next step and became Supercam, even though he lost Kelvin Benjamin to a preseason ACL injury. Oakland became not only watchable, but actually good. The #DeflateGate nonsense never ceased. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t himself – but then completed two Hail Marys for the ages. Kirk Cousins actually played well. So did Derek Carr. And Blake Bortles. Star player after star player retired in the offseason. An undrafted rookie outrushed Beast Mode.
In reviewing my 2015 NFL predictions, I see I didn’t fare so well.
I predicted Randall Cobb would catch 130 passes; he had 79, and was exposed without Jordy Nelson. I said Dez Bryant would lead the league in touchdown receptions (18); he had three in an injury-plagued campaign. I said Andrew Luck would win the NFL MVP, Sam Bradford would pass for 4,000 yards, Andre Johnson would score double-digit touchdowns, and the Indianapolis Colts win the Super Bowl. Not even close.
Then again, I did have some good calls. I said Peyton Manning’s final season would be “marked by severely declining arm strength and inconsistent performances.” If getting benched and then rebounding to win the Super Bowl isn’t inconsistent, I don’t know what is. I predicted that Tyrod Taylor would play well, Drew Brees would put up another 4,000/30 season (ok, maybe that’s obvious), and no one would punch Ryan Fitzpatrick in the jaw all season.
With that in mind, below are my 50 bold predictions for the 2016 campaign.
To check out my predictions from previous years, click here:
To see my 2016 awards predictions, click here.
To see my 2016 team previews, click here.
1. Cam Newton Won’t Duplicate His 2015 MVP Campaign But He’s Still Going to Be a Top-5 Fantasy QB
Cam Newton is the new wave of NFL quarterbacks, and he showed that by producing 45 total touchdowns and taking the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl a year ago. Supercam will pass for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns and run for four more this coming season. Those certainly aren’t his numbers from a year ago, but they’re still enough to put Newton in his fourth Pro Bowl and justify his offseason NFL Network #1 ranking. Newton will direct the Panthers to their fourth consecutive NFC South division title.
2. Quarterbacks Who Will Pass for 4,000 Yards (14): Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles. Eli Manning will lead the league with 4,927 yards.
3. Running Backs Who Will Rush for 1,000 Yards (5): Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Adrian Peterson, David Johnson, Lamar Miller. Gurley wins this year’s rushing crown at 1,322 yards. It’s a low total for a rushing champ, but then again, welcome to the modern NFL.
4. Ezekiel Elliott Will Be the Easy Offensive Rookie of the Year
As if Ezekiel Elliott isn’t talented enough, he gets to play behind a Dallas offensive line that unbelievably helped Darren McFadden put up 1,100 rushing yards in 2015. It’s going to be tougher without Tony Romo around, but Elliott is a true three-down back and the highest drafted running back since Trent Richardson in 2012. Elliott should have no problem acclimating to the NFL. Assuming he’s healthy for all 16 games, his floor should be 1,200 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns.
5. Antonio Brown Will Set Single-Season Records in Receptions (152) and Receiving Yards (2,027)
Antonio Brown has been the NFL’s best wide receiver over the last three seasons. He posted a ridiculous 136/1,834/10 statline in 2015, despite having Michael Vick and Landry Jones for a quarter of the year. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, Brown is poised to take his new game to record-breaking heights. Even without Le’Veon Bell, Brown’s game shouldn’t miss a beat. We’ve already seen what Brown can do to the league’s best cornerbacks (just watch his game tape against Chris Harris). Brown has an unbelievable ability to make plays despite traditional slot receiver size, and 2016 is the season he established himself as the league’s best receiver since Jerry Rice.
6. Not to Be Outdone, Two Other Wide Receivers Will Also Top the 1,800-Yard Threshold
The modern rules of the NFL cater to the passing game and workhorse running backs have been replaced by high-volume wide receivers. Julio Jones is a strong bet to top 1,800 yards again, considering he did it last year (1,871), he’s freakishly athletic and has no complementary receiver who will take his targets, and he’s paired with a top-12 quarterback who never gets hurt. The other wide receiver will likely be Odell Beckham, Jr., although don’t rule out DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, or even a surprise player like Golden Tate.
7. Drew Brees Will Throw for 4,500 Yards and 30 Touchdowns Again Because That’s What He Does
Drew Brees is still underrated at this point in his career. He just won his sixth passing yards title in 2015 and threw for 30 touchdowns for the eighth consecutive year, and yet it still doesn’t seem as if he garners the respect he deserves. As this article went to print, word emerged that Brees had agreed upon a new contract to stay with the New Orleans Saints, one that will guarantee him $44 million over the next two seasons. He’s going to be worth every penny of that.
8. David Johnson Will Be This Year’s Best Running Back
To a certain extent, David Johnson broke out in 2015, scoring 13 total touchdowns and accumulating over 1,600 all-purpose yards. He’s primed for an even bigger role in the offense in ’16. Johnson can run with the ball, catch passes, and return kicks, and a high-powered offensive attack led by Carson Palmer will force defenses to remain honest against the pass. Johnson will rush for 1,200 yards, catch 70 passes for 700 yards, and finish with 16 total touchdowns.
9. Seattle’s Offensive Line Will Be Its Downfall
Seattle’s plan for its offensive line is curious, to say the least. Former Pro Bowl tackle Russell Okung is gone, and the team still doesn’t have an adequate replacement for center, Max Unger, who was dealt in the Jimmy Graham trade. Seattle’s projected left tackle, Garry Gilliam, was charged by PFF with allowing 10 sacks and 43 quarterback hurries in 2015, and that was at right tackle, where it’s typically a little easier. Justin Britt will be playing his first-ever snaps at center, after having spent two years as a tackle and guard. There’s a reason PFF rated this as the 32nd-best offensive line heading into 2016; all five starters are projected to play a different position than where they suited up in 2015. Seattle has enough talent to still make the playoffs, but they won’t win the division or make a deep postseason run until they fix that offensive line.
10. Khalil Mack Will Threaten the NFL’s Single-Season Sack Record
Khalil Mack is arguably the most dominant edge rusher in the league (if you count J.J. Watt as an interior rusher). He showed remarkable improvement from year one to year two, and Oakland’s defense got better with the additions of Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson, and first-round pick, Karl Joseph. Mack will record 20 sacks (to go with five forced fumbles), giving a serious run to breaking Michael Strahan’s single-season record of 22.5*.
11. Wilson-Newton Becomes the New Manning-Brady
Quarterback rivalries are what makes the game fun, and Russell Wilson vs. Cam Newton is what modern quarterbacks are all about – they’re dangerous runners but also efficient enough passers to win football games with their arm. Wilson beat Newton the first four times they played, but Newton won last year’s playoff matchup en route to a Super Bowl appearance. The two will square off against each other again in 2016, this time in a Sunday night game in early December they will assuredly have strong playoff implications for each team. And for the record, Newton will outduel Wilson in this one (four total touchdowns to Wilson’s three) in a 31-28 Carolina win.
12. The Dallas Cowboys Send Four Offensive Linemen to the Pro Bowl
Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick will be fixtures on the Pro Bowl roster for years to come, and Smith, in particular, could be the consensus top offensive lineman in the league by the conclusion of 2016. Look for last year’s undrafted rookie, La’el Collins, to join them in the Pro Bowl. Collins was on track to be a top-10 overall selection in the 2015 draft but dropped due to his alleged involvement in a murder. Now that he’s been clear and is fully able to focus on football, he’s going to reward the Dallas Cowboys for their faith in him.
13. There Will Be No Revival for Robert Griffin III in Cleveland
RGIII is looking for a fresh start in Cleveland, but it’s not going to happen. Josh McCown is simply a better quarterback. Griffin won the starting job in camp – and was named a team captain – by virtue of the fact that he theoretically presents a higher upside, but he won’t keep it. After a few starts, RGIII will be benched or injured and the job will be McCown’s – at least until the Browns select a QB first in the 2017 NFL draft.
14. The Cornerback Who Leads the NFL in Lowest Passer Rating Allowed in 2016 Won’t Be Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Chris Harris, or Darrelle Revis
Those above cornerbacks are the five best cornerbacks in the NFL (if you classify Tyrann Mathieu as a corner, there are your top six), but the player who leads the league in lowest passer rating allowed in 2016 will be a surprise player: Trumaine Johnson of the Los Angeles Rams. Johnson was quietly a breakout player a year ago, rating by Pro Football Focus as a top-18 corner out of over 100 qualifiers, and he was second in passer rating allowed (behind just Norman). Johnson is a natural ballhawk and the only cornerback in the league with double-digit interceptions since 2014. The Rams recognized his talent and allowed Janoris Jenkins to walk in free agency, while slapping the franchise tag on Johnson. With Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn up front, quarterbacks will have no choice but to release the football quickly, which will maximize Johnson’s chances.
15. The Arizona Cardinals Lead the NFL With 525 Points Scored
This is an offense that will be a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. At age 36, Carson Palmer is coming off his finest season (save for the playoffs), in which he directed the Arizona offense to near-perfection. Palmer is surrounded by offensive weapons in future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald plus Michael Floyd, John Brown, and 2016 breakout candidate David Johnson. Outside of Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians is the league’s best coach and he will have the Cardinals rolling through the regular season en route to 525 points and 12 wins.
16. Sam Bradford Has His Typical Bradford Year in Minnesota
It was an interesting week for Minnesota Vikings fans: They saw their young Pro Bowl quarterback Teddy Bridgewater go down with a devastating knee injury (on a non-contact play!), and then their GM dealt a first-round pick to Philadelphia for Sam Bradford. You had to know Eagles GM Howie Roseman would be all too happy to deal Bradford, given that he has Carson Wentz waiting, but the fact that Roseman was able to coax a first-rounder from Minnesota (and a 2018 conditional fourth) is shocking. Bradford is a better quarterback than Shaun Hill – at least maybe? – but he’s a one-year rental at best. He’s never lived up to the potential the St. Louis Rams saw when they took him first overall in the draft in 2010. Bradford won’t start 16 games because there’s always a nagging – or serious – injury with him. His season will he characterized by handoffs to Adrian Peterson and short passes to Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, and Kyle Rudolph, and it’s not going to be enough to get the Vikings to the postseason. After the year, Minnesota will have an interesting decision involving Bradford, who does have another season left on his contract.
17. Kirk Cousins Will Earn a Long-Term Contract Extension With the Washington Redskins
I was admittedly skeptical about Kirk Cousins heading into 2015; after all, he entered the season with one of the highest career interception rates of any recent quarterback. Cousins started slowly but put together a second-half stretch that was MVP-caliber; over the final 10 games, he completed 72.3 percent of his passes, threw 23 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and registered a nifty 119.1 passer rating. He even ran in four touchdowns, and led the Washington Redskins to the playoffs. The organization franchise-tagged him but is waiting to see him reproduce his numbers before offering him a long-term deal. I think they’ll see what they’re looking for this coming year, and Cousins will sign a four-year, $85 million deal midway through the ’16 campaign. A prediction of Cousins’ final numbers: 65.3 completion percentage, 4,122 yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, plus a second straight postseason berth for Washington.
18. Tyrod Taylor Won’t Duplicate His 2015 Success
Tyrod Taylor came out of nowhere to earn a Pro Bowl berth for Buffalo in 2015, throwing 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions, plus 568 yards and four more scores on the ground. The Bills signed Taylor to a long-term deal but it’s one of those deals like what San Francisco originally gave Colin Kaepernick; it’s essentially a pay-as-you go deal. There are some concerns about Taylor’s style of play – he missed two games with an MCL sprain while also dealing with a shoulder issue, and he held the ball for a ridiculous amount of time (3.22 seconds), which led to a high percentage of sacks. He will need to prove he can stay on the field and that he can get rid of the ball quicker, and he’s not helped by Sammy Watkins’ constant nagging injuries. Taylor won’t be a bust in ’16, but he’s not going to follow up with another season like last year. This will lead GM Doug Whaley to have to make an interesting decision in the offseason.
19. First-Time Pro Bowl Second-Year Players: Brandon Scherff, Leonard Williams, Ronald Darby, David Johnson, La’el Collins
Brandon Scherff can play guard or tackle, and had a fine rookie season. Leonard Williams and Ronald Darby both deserved the Pro Bowl as rookies, but are probably overshadowed by more well-known teammates at the same position (Muhammad Wilkerson/Sheldon Richardson and Stephon Gilmore). David Johnson has all the talent to be a 2016 First-Team All-Pro, and he flashed down the stretch as a rookie. La’el Collins was supposed to be a top-10 pick for a reason. All will receive Pro Bowl honors this coming year.
20. Aaron Rodgers Bounces Back With a Vintage Aaron Rodgers Season
By Aaron Rodgers’ otherworldly standards, his 2015 campaign was alarming. Rodgers still posted his usual spectacular 31-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he was a shocking 25th in completion percentage (60.7) and 30th in yards per attempt (6.7) among passers with at least 250 attempts. The whole offense never recovered from the loss of Jordy Nelson, but fortunately, he’s back and ready to go for the 2016 season. “Fat Eddie” is allegedly back in shape, and the Packers have too much talent on offense for a repeat of ’15. Rodgers won’t touch his MVP stats from 2011 or 2014, but he’ll put up 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns, and a passer rating well over 100.
21. New $100 Million Man Fletcher Cox Puts Up 14.5 Sacks in Jim Schwartz’s 4-3 Defense
After excelling as a two-gapping 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, Fletcher Cox is going to be a monster under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. Schwartz runs a conventional 4-3 defense in which Cox’s primary assignment will be to shoot the A-gap and hit the opposing quarterback. This is a role Cox happens to be pretty good at: he picked up 9.5 sacks in a more thankless role last season; this year, he’s primed for bigger and better numbers. Cox is flanked by Brandon Graham, Connor Barwin, and Vinny Curry, all of whom are formidable pass-rushers themselves. On a good day, offensive lines simply won’t have enough resources to stop Cox & Co.
22. Jameis Winston Puts Up an MVP-Type Season
Jameis Winston rebounded from a pick-six on his first professional pass to put forth a pretty impressive rookie campaign. Winston started all 16 games, throwing for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns, while rushing for six more. Winston’s offense is suited to help him progress even further – he has a pair of 6’5″ wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, plus a Pro Bowl running back in Doug Martin. Winston is poised to take that next step and establish himself as a top-10 quarterback.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo Goes 3-1 as a Starter and is Hot Trade Bait After the Season
Jimmy Garoppolo’s performance in the wake of Tom Brady’s Deflategate absence will be the talk of the football world in September. Two years ago, the New England Patriots liked Garoppolo enough to take him with their second-round pick, and now they get to see what he can do as an every-week starter (well, at least for four games). There aren’t many better places for an inexperienced QB to play than under the tutelage of Belichick, who helped Brady to a Super Bowl title back in 2001 and coaxed a fine season out of Matt Cassel back in 2008. Beating the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 won’t be an easy task (spoiler: Super Bowl preview!), but then it’s three straight home games, all of which are winnable. When Brady returns, Garoppolo will have the club sitting at 3-1 and in first place in the AFC East.
24. The Denver Broncos Never Really Figure Out Their 2016 QB Situation But Still Go 10-6
It’s quite a drop-off to go from Peyton Manning, even as much as he struggled a year ago, to Trevor Siemian, at quarterback. GM John Elway took a chance that Mark Sanchez could win the starting job, but now he looks unlikely to even make the opening roster. Rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch is primed to be the backup behind Siemian. Starting for the defending Super Bowl champions is high pressure, but at least Siemian has himself an otherworldly defense. Don’t expect Siemian – last year’s third QB – to keep the starting job, simply because the upside of Lynch is too great to ignore. Then again, Lynch may not be ready in which case Elway may find himself going back to Siemian or maybe even a surprise addition (Josh McCown?). Regardless of who’s under center, the defense is talented enough to get this team to double-digit wins in 2016.
25. Joe Thomas Becomes the First Offensive Lineman – and Just Fifth NFL Player Ever – to Make 10 Pro Bowls to Start His Career
Joe Thomas is as automatic as it gets. He’s never missed a game in his nine-year career; in fact, he’s never missed a single snap. Thomas has been named to the Pro Bowl every year of his career, and the 2016 season will be his 10th straight, which puts him in pretty special company. The only other NFL players to go 10-for-10 to start their careers: Merlin Olsen, Barry Sanders, Mel Renfro, and the great Lawrence Taylor. Needless to say, all are in the Hall of Fame.
26. Jamaal Charles Will Fail to Average 5.0 Yards Per Carry for the First Time in His Career
It’s absolutely unprecedented how efficient Jamaal Charles has been in his career at gaining yards. His career mark of 5.47 is the best of any running back since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. His 6.38 average in 2010 the highest single-season total by a running back (min. 200 carries) since Jim Brown’s 1963 campaign. Charles has never had a season with a yards-per-carry average less than 5.0; even his injury-plagued 2011 and 2015 years saw him average 6.9 and 5.1, respectively. Charles will turn 30 this year though, and he’s coming back from a second ACL tear. At some point, he’s just going to hit that wall. I foresee Charles gaining around 900 yards on a 4.5 yards-per-carry clip.
27. Gus Bradley’s Jaguars Play Well Enough for the Gus Bus to Receive a Contract Extension
The Jacksonville Jaguars loaded up on talent this offseason. They drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, signed Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara, and Tashaun Gipson to go with a defense that also gets back 2015 third overall draft pick Dante Fowler from his season-ending rookie injury. Add that to an offense with Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson, and this team has a bright future. I don’t think the Jaguars are quite ready to make the playoffs – they’re an eight or nine-win team – but they’re trending in the right direction.
28. Jadeveon Clowney Puts Up 12 Sacks in a Breakout Season
It’s time for Jadeveon Clowney to break out, and this is the season he will. The 2014 No. 1 overall draft pick underwent the dreaded microfracture knee surgery as a rookie, but rebounded to play in 13 games last year and put up 4.5 sacks. The talent is there – he’s a 265-pound man who ran a 4.53 40 and posted a 37″ vertical leap. He’s now nearly two years removed from his injury, and he’s on a defensive front seven that includes the game’s best player in J.J. Watt, plus Whitney Mercilus and Brian Cushing. The opportunities will be there for Clowney, and he will make the most of them in ’16.
29. The Carson Wentz Debut Season Sees its Highs and Lows, But Not Enough to Get the Philadelphia Eagles Out of Last Place in the NFC East
The shocking Sam Bradford trade means the Philadelphia Eagles will be going with rookie quarterback Carson Wentz a lot sooner than initially expected. Wentz has the physical tools of a long-term franchise signal-caller, and Chase Daniel won’t keep him from seeing the field. When Wentz is cleared from his preseason rib injury, he’ll be under center. He doesn’t have overwhelming weapons, which means there will be obvious growing pains. Wentz is admittedly raw, and he will probably have some awful performances. But he’s also extremely talented, and by the end of the season, he will show enormous strides and have Eagles’ fans excited for 2017. A stat prediction for Wentz: 13 starts, 60.3 completion percentage, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 85.3 passer rating, four rushing touchdowns.
30. Eddie Lacy Will Play Much Better But Not Well Enough to Earn a Long-Term Contract Extension With Green Bay
2015 was a letdown year for many of the Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, but no player more so than Eddie Lacy. After averaging 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons, Fat Eddie put up just 946 yards and five scores a year ago, also setting a career-high in fumbles (4). Lacy was noticeably out of shape, at one point reportedly weighing over 260 pounds. He spent this past offseason boxing and working out, and showed up to camp in much better shape. I think he will rebound from his poor 2015 season but as a free-agent-to-be, he’s not worth signing to a long-term contract extension. The Packers would be better off letting Lacy walk in the offseason and using a mid-round 2017 draft pick on a running back.
31. Colin Kaepernick Doesn’t Take a Single Snap for Chip Kelly
Colin Kaepernick and Chip Kelly seemed like a match made in heaven, right? Well, maybe not. Kelly prefers former first-round washout Blaine Gabbert, and Kaepernick isn’t in the news recently for what he’s doing on the field. Head coaches don’t like distractions. That’s why I don’t envision Kaepernick taking a single snap for Kelly in 2016, whether he’s placed on injured reserve, released, traded, or just kept on the bench while Gabbert leads the Niners to a 4-12 record.
32. There Are No On-Field Fights in Either Odell Beckham vs. Josh Norman Matchup in 2016
When the Carolina Panthers surprisingly rescinded the franchise tag on top corner Josh Norman, the Washington Redskins snagged the All-Pro on a five-year, $75 million deal. If you remember the Beckham-Norman game last year, it was a can’t miss. The two had to be physically restrained from one another, and Beckham was hit with a one-game suspension, while the pair combined for five penalties. A Twitter beef this offseason helped fuel the rivalry, and Norman signing with Washington means they’ll face each other twice this year. For what it’s worth, I don’t think they’ll brawl on the field again. Both teams should be in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt, and they’ll need to stay in the game.
33. Christine Michael Leads the NFL in 150-Yard Rushing Games
The fantasy football community has long been intrigued by what Christine Michael can do on the football field, and his preseason performance suggests he may break out in 2016. It’s still a running back by committee in Seattle, with Thomas Rawls the lead dog if healthy, but Michael’s talent is inevitable, and he’ll put up some stellar games. He won’t reach 1,000 yards for the season, but three times he’ll top 150 in a single week.
34. Your First Head Coach Fired: Mike Mularkey
What reason is there to believe Mike Mularkey will have success in 2016? Marcus Mariota is an extremely talented quarterback, but Mularkey is 5-27 in his last 32 games as a head coach, and his roster is largely devoid of talent. He’ll be the only head coach fired during the season, although look for Rex Ryan, Jeff Fisher (finally), and Marvin Lewis (unless he finally wins that elusive playoff game) to join him in the offseason.
35. Tim Tebow Doesn’t Play in the National Football League in 2016 (or the MLB)
‘Nuff said.
36. The Dak Prescott Hype Hits Full Steam by Mid-September
Tony Romo’s backbreaking preseason injury means it’s Dak Prescott’s team for the time being, and the rookie fourth-rounder certainly flashed in the preseason. Prescott was nearly flawless in limited action (seven total touchdowns to 11 incompletions!), and his job will be to manage the gameand let the NFL’s best offensive line pave the way for Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott showed he can make plays himself, and the Dak train hype will build while Romo’s out. When Romo returns – likely around midseason – Prescott will have the Cowboys right in the NFC East race.
37. J.J. Watt Will Play All 16 Games and Put Up 14 Sacks and Two Defensive Touchdowns
Not even offseason surgery can slow J.J. Watt. The Houston Texans fully expect him to play Week 1, which would be his 81st consecutive regular-season game since being drafted. Watt will end up playing all 16, and while he won’t win his record-setting fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, he’ll still record 14 sacks and score twice on defense. It’s what you should expect from the NFL’s best defensive player since Reggie White.
38. LeGarrett Blount Leads the NFL With 11 Rushing Touchdowns
Running backs are at an all-time low right now. The game’s two most talented (unsuspended) backs are Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, each of whom will see plenty of eight and even nine-man boxes. Jamaal Charles is rehabbing from a second torn ACL. Marshawn Lynch is retired. Le’Veon Bell is suspended again. Matt Forte changed teams and is now 30. No one knows what kind of player Eddie Lacy will be in 2016. Your rushing champion could be anyone from one of the aforementioned backs to new rookie Ezekiel Elliott to Jeremy Hill to Devonta Freeman to Doug Martin to … LeGarrette Blount? Why not? The 250-pound bruiser has scored 24 times in 38 career games with the Patriots (including playoffs, where he’s unbelievably found the end zone seven times in two contests). He’s as good a bet as any to pound for a dozen short-yardage touchdowns, especially in a high-scoring offense that won’t be lacking in red zone opportunities.
39. Le’Veon Bell Appears in Nine Games and Puts Up 900 Total Yards and 10 Scores
Le’Veon Bell is already suspended for the first three games of the 2016 season, but there’s no reason to think he will suit up for the 13 remaining contests. He’ll play in some of them, but this is a player who has been suspended twice and missed another 11 regular-season games due to injuries. He was inactive for all three of Pittsburgh’s playoff games since he’s been on the roster. In all, he’s appeared in 35 of a possible 51 contests since being drafted. He will come back in Week 4 and be a Pro Bowl-caliber running back; his talent is inevitable. Don’t expect Bell to stay on the field though. He’ll get hurt and miss extensive time, and the Pittsburgh Steelers will have an interesting decision to make regarding Bell’s free agent status in the offseason.
40. Carson Palmer Shrugs Off His Horrific Playoff Game to Win League MVP
I’m a big believer in not only Carson Palmer, but Bruce Arians. Arians’ work with the Arizona Cardinals has been remarkable, and their offense is set to be the league’s most prolific unit in 2016. Palmer was last seen turning the ball over in scary fashion in the playoffs, but he’s too good and the team is too stacked for that to be the end. Palmer will come back strong and win his first NFL MVP award, directing the Cardinals to 12 wins and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
41. Oakland Earns Its First Postseason Berth Since 2002
Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack are the three stars on an Oakland team that is poised to make the postseason for the first time since the Rich Gannon and Jerry Rice days. Enjoy this one, Raiders fans, because it’s long overdue.
42. Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs Holds Off J.J. Watt’s Four Sacks in the AFC Wild Card Game
Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs fly under the radar, but this is a good year to take advantage of the rest of the AFC, seeing as Tom Brady is suspended for four games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have multiple key suspensions, and the Denver Broncos are starting last year’s third-stringer at quarterback. Alex Smith may be a ‘game manager’, but look up his career playoff numbers (link). He can play. So can J.J. Watt, and he’ll be a monster in this game, but the Chiefs will win a close one, 27-24. Reid gets his 12th career postseason win (his ninth such year with a victory).
43. Kirk Cousins Beats the Vaunted Seattle Defense in the NFC Wild Card Round
It’s going to be anyone’s NFC East in 2016, but I think Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins take it, and believe it or not, win a hard-fought playoff game against Seattle’s Legion of Boom secondary. That’s going to do wonders for Cousins’ offseason contract situation.
44. Cam Newton Outduels Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Divisional Round
Playoff football was made for matchups like Cam Newton vs. Aaron Rodgers. This features arguably the game’s two most athletic quarterbacks going head-to-head with a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line. Newton’s Carolina Panthers hold off Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers, with Newton producing 345 total yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win.
45. Your AFC Championship Game: New England over Pittsburgh
This would be the first time Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger would meet in the playoffs since Roethlisberger’s rookie season (2004), which is remarkable given that this would be Brady’s 11th AFC Championship Game appearance and Roethlisberger’s fifth. Hopefully, Le’Veon Bell – who has never played in the playoffs, missing both the ’14 and ’15 contests – is able to suit up. The New England Patriots would have their hands full trying to contain Roethlisberger, Bell, and Antonio Brown, but it’s not like Brady, LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman, and Gronk are easy to stop. Bill Belichick coaxes a 20-17 win out of the Patriots, with the decisive points coming on a 46-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski.
46. Your NFC Championship Game: Arizona over Carolina
Rematch! Last year, the Carolina Panthers spanked the Arizona Cardinals, 49-15, with Cam Newton accounting for four total touchdowns and Carson Palmer turning it over a shocking six times.
Not this year. Palmer wins it, completing over 70 percent of his passes and backed by a strong rushing performance from David Johnson. That sends Arizona to their first Super Bowl since 2008.
47. Tom Brady Starts His NFL-Record Seventh Super Bowl
If Tom Brady does end up starting the Super Bowl, it will be the 13th time in 14 seasons a Roethlisberger, Brady, or Manning starts the NFL’s biggest game. This would give Brady a record seventh appearance, breaking his own record of six. It would also have Bill Belichick coaching – at some level – in his 10th Super Bowl
48. Arizona vs. New England Becomes First Super Bowl Ever to Go to Overtime
It’s surprising that there’s never been an overtime Super Bowl. How about the game’s two best coaches and two of the best quarterbacks dueling it out for 60 minutes, and then heading to a fifth quarter all tied up at 24 apiece?
49. Larry Fitzgerald Catches Game-Winner
The Arizona Cardinals get the opening kickoff and Carson Palmer marches them right down the field, culminating in a 28-yard game-winning touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald. If that’s not an all-time great NFL moment, I don’t know what is.
50. Carson Palmer Wins Super Bowl MVP
I’m all-in on Carson Palmer for the 2016 season, if you can’t tell. Regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP, plus architect of the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. In a world that didn’t see him tear his ACL in that 2005 playoff game against Pittsburgh, there’s a good chance Palmer would be headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. He’s a tremendous pure passer, and 36 years old isn’t that old in today’s NFL.
In the Super Bowl, Bill Belichick will game plan to stop versatile running back David Johnson – just as he did against Marshall Faulk in the 2001 Super Bowl – which means Palmer will need to make some plays. And he will, throwing for 350 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the overtime winner to all-around good guy, Larry Fitzgerald.
Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter.
