I’m pretty sure this was the longest offseason in the history of the National Football League. The calendar says it lasted about seven months, but it felt like seven years. 

And now it’s here. Finally. The 2016 NFL season is starting tomorrow. Actually, it started on Thursday, but the main event is tomorrow. Below I will highlight 50 bold predictions for the 2016 season, in no particular order, and I will warn you that I’ll probably get 35 of these wrong. That’s why they’re called bold predictions. 

1 – Ezekiel Elliott will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. 

I’m completely buying into Ezekiel Elliott. The new Cowboys running back is as talented as any back entering the NFL since Adrian Peterson and he gets to run behind the best offensive line in the game. He’ll be the focal point of an offense that features a rookie quarterback, although it’s one that can extend plays and looks like he may or may not be the 2016 version of Russell Wilson. Dak Prescott, for however long he plays, likely won’t be throwing two touchdowns a game like Tony Romo, but I bet he puts the ball in Elliott’s hands and watches the rookie run it in for a touchdown at least 15 to 18 times. 

2 – Lamar Miller will be the NFL’s best running back. 

For as much as I think running back is a replaceable position, it’s hard to believe Miami didn’t want Lamar Miller, instead choosing to let the 25-year-old walk in free agency. On a Houston offense that regularly ranks among the league leaders in rushing attempts under Bill O’Brien, I think Miller could carry the ball 250 times and add 60 receptions. He’s my pick to finish the season as the league-leader in yards from scrimmage and the unofficial title of best running back in the National Football League. 

3 – Drew Brees will break his own single-season record for passing yards.

It’s simply unbelievable that Drew Brees isn’t regularly mentioned in the discussion for elite quarterbacks. I’d put him below Rodgers and Brady, but give me Brees over Newton or Wilson, and please don’t even start with the Brees vs. Roethlisberger comparisons. This season, the Saints are going to be a bad football team, perhaps really bad, and Brees will break the NFL single-season record, which he currently holds, by throwing for 5512 passing yards. That’s an average of almost 350 yards per game, close to 100 yards per quarter. 

4 – Jared Goff will draw comparisons to Ryan Leaf.

There are plenty of warning signs regarding number one overall draft pick Jared Goff. He’s reportedly struggling to learn the playbook, he suffered through a disastrous preseason and he’s currently the number three quarterback on the depth chart behind Case Keenum and Sean Mannion. Goff will almost certainly get his chance to play this season, but nothing, absolutely nothing, makes me think he will play well or even average. The Rams have to be deeply concerned regarding Goff and after this season, I think they’ll be panicking.

5 – Antonio Brown catches 26 passes in one game. 

Antonio Brown is the single most efficient receiver since the legendary Jerry Rice, a player who, as long as he has Ben Roethlisberger, is quite literally incapable of having a bad game. Their chemistry is incredible, and this season, I think the two have a game where they hook up for an otherworldly 26 receptions in one game. On paper, Pittsburgh’s contest against Miami, where former Eagles great Byron Maxwell is their best corner, looks like the most logical bet. This kind of production, something that would be unrealistic even in the game of Madden, would absolutely shatter the current single-season record of 21 catches, set by Brandon Marshall in 2009.

6 – Chip Kelly’s debut season in San Francisco exceeds all expectations. 

You cannot find a coach in the history of the sport whose reputation has changed, for the worse, more in a single season than Chip Kelly from 2015 to 2016. A 10-game winner in each of his first two seasons in Philly, Kelly led the Eagles to just a 6-9 mark in 2015 before he was fired in late December. Now the coach of the 49ers, Kelly has his work cut out for him with the most talentless roster in the NFL, but I’m still clinging to the belief that the man is good enough to win six games, which would be a major accomplishment given the tough NFC West. 

7 – Josh Norman dominates, for the most part, in Washington.

It’s going to be almost impossible for Josh Norman to allow a passer rating as low as he did in 2015, as he faces Odell Beckham twice, Dez Bryant twice, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson and a slew of other elite receivers. But I think he’s more than just a system corner, and I think he’ll show it in a 2016 season that compares favorably to 2015 Marcus Peters, with many big plays but many big plays allowed. 

8 – Sam Bradford, against all odds, doesn’t lead Minnesota into the postseason.

There’s really not a lot to say about Sam Bradford that I haven’t already said. He’s not a good quarterback, he’ll never be a good quarterback and I don’t believe he can lead Minnesota to the postseason even with Adrian Peterson and an elite defense. That would require making plays, something Bradford hasn’t done since Oklahoma in 2009. The Vikings will finish the season with about eight wins, giving the Eagles a draft pick in the 15-18 range. And Bradford will play his usual 12 games, with about 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. In other words, he’ll be a bottom six starting quarterback, with an already built-in excuse: new offensive system. 

9 – Brock Osweiler turns into a top-15 quarterback in Houston.

John Elway chose to let Brock Osweiler leave in free agency despite the Broncos quarterback spending four seasons developing under Peyton Manning. That says a lot to me, but I believe Osweiler will play well enough under a terrific offensive head coach to rank as an average to slightly above average quarterback in Houston. It’ll help with playmakers like Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. 

10 – Offensive line issues derail the season for Andrew Luck’s Colts. 

I’m off the Colts this season. Offensive line play is everything and the Colts just aren’t good enough there. They did add center Ryan Kelly in the first round, but players like Denzelle Good and Joe Reitz wouldn’t be starting for any other team in the league. Andrew Luck regularly takes as many hits as any other quarterback and I think it’ll catch up to the Colts this season, as it did last year. 

11 – Golden Tate catches 120 passes and establishes himself as a top-5 wide receiver. 

Golden Tate is a legit playmaker and he’s absolutely poised to take over as the Lions’ number one wide receiver on an offense that throws the ball as many times as any unit in the league. I’m not buying Marvin Jones as a potential number one receiver. This is Tate’s offense and he’s on his way to catching 120 passes for up to 1500 to 1600 yards. That will put him in the AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins territory as a top-five receiver in the game. 

12 – Seattle fails to lead the NFL in points allowed for the first time since drafting Russell Wilson.

For the first time since 2011, I am picking a different team to lead the NFL in points allowed. I’m taking the Houston Texans, who have the best defensive player on the planet in JJ Watt, breakout candidate Jadeveon Clowney and a number of other defensive presences like Whitney Mercilus and Vince Wilfork. We’re past the days of teams allowing fewer than 200 points in a season, but if the Texans allow in the 240 range, they could lead the National Football League. 

13 – Kirk Cousins’ up-and-down season: 5116 yards, 33 touchdowns, 22 interceptions. 

It’s hard to know if Kirk Cousins is the next superstar quarterback or the next Nick Foles. Personally, I think he’s right in the middle, which would put him somewhere in the 15-18 range among starters. On a Redskins team that will likely struggle to finish .500, Cousins could be involved in plenty of shootouts, as indicated by his outrageous seasonal stat lines.

14 – Alex Smith sets career-highs in virtually every passing category.

You’ll never hear anyone call Alex Smith a good quarterback, but he’s much better than the national perception. Andy Reid always gets the most from his quarterbacks and I think Smith posts career-highs as a passer in 2016 with Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce as his top two pass-catchers. He is my sleeper candidate to lead the league in touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

15 – Ronald Darby leads the NFL with a 36.0 passer rating allowed. 

The game’s best young cornerback, Darby is Rex Ryan’s new Darrelle Revis, a player who emerges as one of the shutdown corners in the game. A 36.0 passer rating is a number you see every three or four seasons, and I believe Darby really is that good. 

16 – JJ Watt plays in 16 games and collects 16 sacks. 

Offseason back surgery led the game’s most explosive defensive player to contemplate retirement, as he claims, but as of now, Watt is expected to play in Week 1. Barring no setbacks, he should be his usual dominant self, and while 16 sacks may be a disappointment by his standards, it will still be enough to lead the National Football League. 

17 – Jadeveon Clowney completely sheds the bust label with 13.5 sacks. 

Jadeveon Clowney has been a bust through his first two seasons. He’s been a major disappointment, although it’s worth mentioning that injuries have really affected his play. I think this is the year he puts it all together, becoming one of the elite pass-rushers in the NFL. Imagine JJ Watt, a healthy JJ Watt (which we may not see this season), with Clowney on the other side of the defensive line. That’s a defensive coordinator’s dream. 

18 – Arian Foster, Steve Smith, Jimmy Graham all struggle in their return from a major knee injury. 

We’ve been spoiled in recent years by players like Adrian Peterson, who bounce back from a serious injury like it was nothing, and I think we’ll see three veterans really struggle while attempting to return from major injuries. Arian Foster is my pick to have the best year of the three, but I think all three miss significant time, are re-injured or both. 

19 – Jeff Fisher sets career record for losses by a head coach. 

With 156 career losses, Los Angeles Rams head coach Jeff Fisher needs 10 losses to break Dan Reeves’ career record for losses by a head coach. I think the Rams are a terrible team and there’s a chance Fisher breaks this record by Week 14 or 15. If he has his usual 7-9 record and only ties the record this season, he’ll just break it in 2017. That record will undoubtedly one day belong to Fisher. 

20 – Three recent top-five offensive linemen solidify themselves as first-round busts. 

Matt Kalil (4th pick in 2012), Luke Joeckel (2nd pick in 2013) and Greg Robinson (2nd pick in 2014) have all really struggled since their recent top-5 selection, with only Kalil (in 2012) showing any sign of promise. Joeckel has already been moved to guard after losing a training camp competition for the Jaguars’ left tackle spot, and Robinson is one of the worst left tackles in the game. Nothing makes me think any of the three will improve in 2016, as all three have bust written all over them. 

21 – Joey Bosa plays in 11 games and collects 11 tackles and 0 sacks. 

The San Diego Chargers have to be panicking about number three overall pick Joey Bosa, who held out deep into training camp and is now expected to miss Week 1 with a hamstring injury. The warning signs are there, loud and clear, and while I’m not ready to call Bosa a bust, I think he’ll be a disaster in 2016, collecting just 11 tackles and no sacks while struggling to remain healthy. 

22 – Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack earns Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.

The Jaguars took a high-risk, high-reward player early in the second round, but I think early on Jack will reap the benefits for an upcoming Jaguars defense. He’s an elite cover linebacker, a player capable of collecting over 100 tackles, a couple of sacks and a number of turnovers. Production like that could earn Jack the league’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. 

23 – Despite talented roster, Jaguars win just seven, ending Gus Bradley era.

I originally wanted the Eagles to hire Gus Bradley as their head coach, believing the former Seahawks defensive coordinator would be a successful NFL head coach, but through three years, Bradley is clearly the worst coach in football. The only argument to support him is that he hasn’t had a talented roster to work with, but he needs to be able to lead his team to more than five wins. A 7-9 record is my Jaguars prediction for 2016, and at that point, it’s time for the team to move on from the Gus Bus… as they should have done after 2015. 

24 – Packers finish with 14-2 record, on heels of their defense as much as their offense. 

We all know what Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb can do. They’re capable of scoring 30 to 35 points per game. The reason I have the Packers winning 14 games in 2016 is just as much because of their defense, where Damarious Randall, Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins give the Packers a terrific trio at cornerback to pair with safeties Morgan Burnett and HaHa Clinton-Dix. 

25 – Jameis Winston sets single-game record with eight touchdown passes.

The league’s number one overall pick in 2015 is going to one day be a top five quarterback in the National Football League. He showed serious improvement in the second half of last season and I believe he breaks one of the game’s most cherished records by throwing for eight touchdown passes in a single game (four of them to Mike Evans). The obvious choice for opponent is New Orleans, so let’s go with the Bucs’ home contest against the Saints in Week 14. 

26 – Derrick Henry takes DeMarco Murray’s starting job by Week 4.

There was a time when DeMarco Murray was good at football. That was in 2014, when the 26-year-old led the NFL in rushing behind the best offensive line in the game. Now Murray is 28, fresh off the worst year of his career, a season in which he appeared even worse on film than he did in the stat sheets. There’s little reason to believe he’ll bounce back in Tennessee, and former Heisman winner Derrick Henry should have no problem taking Murray’s starting role sooner rather than later. 

27 – Paul Perkins finishes 2016 as this season’s David Johnson.

Rookie fifth-round pick Paul Perkins is in a favorable position to emerge as this season’s David Johnson. Perkins won’t play much at the beginning of the season, but it’s not hard to see veteran Rashad Jennings relinquishing his starting job to Perkins by the middle of October. Perkins has three-down potential and in an offense that ranked sixth in points scored in 2015, we’re looking at a player who could be winning fantasy football leagues by the end of the 2016 season. 

28 – Antonio Gates leads all tight ends with 11 touchdowns to set career record.

Tony Gonzalez: 111 touchdowns. Antonio Gates: 104 touchdowns. Antonio Gates needs eight touchdowns to break the career record by tight ends. I think he reaches double-digits as the primary red zone target for a great quarterback on a team that will frequently be trailing in the second half. Even at 36, Gates is still a top six or seven tight end, and will be remembered one day as one of the best in history. 

29 – Laremy Tumsil is the best rookie nobody talks about.

Number one overall talent. Number 13 overall selection. And now starting at guard instead of tackle. There’s every reason to believe Dolphins rookie Laremy Tunsil can dominate opposing defensive tackles in 2016. Forget about Tunsil winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. That award will never go to an offensive lineman. But if it could, Tunsil would be more than deserving. 

30 – Marcus Peters ties single-season record with four interception touchdowns. 

Three players in NFL history have returned four interceptions for a touchdown in a single season. Chiefs corner Marcus Peters has the skillset, playmaking ability and opportunity to join Ken Houston, Jim Kearney and Eric Allen by averaging a touchdown per month over the regular season. 

31 – Melvin Gordon becomes the latest first-round rookie running back disappointment.

Melvin Gordon was simply awful in 2015, scoring zero touchdowns on more than 200 touches. Porous offensive line play didn’t help his case, but neither did fumbling issues. He underwent microfracture surgery this offseason, although he reportedly looked fine during the preseason. We’ll find out, but as of now, I’m leaning toward Gordon turning into a major disappointment. He won’t be on the Trent Richardson level, but the Donald Brown level seems like a realistic option. 

32 – Despite no Calvin Johnson, Detroit ranks fourth in the NFL with 476 points scored.

I love what Detroit did as an offense in the second half of 2015 under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Matthew Stafford played the best football of his career and even without Calvin Johnson, I believe the Lions take major strides in 2016, largely because of their no-huddle offensive approach. Detroit probably won’t be a playoff team in 2016, but they’ll be a dynamic offensive unit, averaging just a shade under 30 points per game with Stafford entering the discussion of the game’s top 10 quarterbacks. 

33 – Chicago Bears will be the league’s most irrelevant team. 

Give me a reason to watch the Chicago Bears. Talk about the Chicago Bears. Think about the Chicago Bears. There’s nothing. They’re not bad enough to contend for the number one overall pick, but not good enough to stay in the playoff hunt. They have a boring coach, boring quarterback, no-name defense. Just forget about this team because they’ll finish 6-10 and fly completely under the radar in 2016. 

34 – Eddie Lacy pulls a Doug Martin in his contract season.

Forget about what Eddie Lacy did in 2015. That’s in the past. He’s now in a contract season and he knows it, working all offseason to shed the excess weight he carried around in 2015. Lacy is a power back who has the ability to run for 1200 yards and score 12 to 15 touchdowns as the only legitimate rushing threat for the game’s best offense. The Packers like to keep their own players and if Lacy plays up to his potential in his contract year, he’ll earn a multi-year extension from Green Bay’s front office. 

35 – Bill O’Brien wins Coach of the Year after third straight winning season to begin coaching career.

Bill O’Brien is the best NFL coach that nobody talks about. He’s led the Texans to consecutive 9-7 seasons to begin his coaching career, using four different starting quarterbacks each year. While many believe the organization drastically overpaid for free-agent quarterback Brock Osweiler, there’s every reason to believe the Texans can win 11 or 12 games if Osweiler plays well in 2016. That would be enough to earn the former Bill Belichick disciple the prestigious Coach of the Year award. 

36 – Josh Doctson leads all rookies in receiving yards.

Four receivers were drafted in the first round of the 2016 draft: Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Laquan Treadwell and Josh Doctson. My surprising pick to lead the four in receiving yards in 2016 is Josh Doctson, the only one of the quartet who is playing with a legitimate starting quarterback. Doctson suffered a minor Achilles injury in the preseason, but he could end up missing zero games from the injury. Cousins has a lot of talented options in the passing game, but only Doctson was drafted in the first round. We’ve been spoiled by the 2014 draft of Beckham, Watkins and Evans, and it’s unrealistic to expect Doctson to even reach 1000 yards, but 50 yards a game (800 for the season) is certainly possible. 

37 – New Orleans allows a mind-boggling 501 points as a defense.

The Saints are so bad on defense that it’s embarrassing. They’re awful. They have a few pieces, like Cameron Jordan and Delvin Breaux, but for the most part, they’re starting a bunch of scrubs. The loss of first-round defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins to a broken leg only makes this unit worse. I’m picking them to allow 501 points in 2016, which would be the third-highest single-season total in NFL history. 

38 – Colts continue their streak of zero 100-yard rushers.

Not since Vick Ballard in Week 12 of the 2012 season has a Colts running back rushed for 100 yards in a game. I don’t expect 66-year-old running back Frank Gore (or maybe he’s actually just 33) to end that streak. On a side note, I’ve picked Gore to completely break down for each of the last six seasons, so what do I know?

39 – Zach Miller will be this year’s Gary Barnidge.

Gary Barnidge had one of the most impressive breakout seasons I have ever seen last year. A 30-year-old tight end with 44 catches in his first seven seasons accounted for a 79-1043-9 stat line despite playing in one of the league’s worst quarterback situations. I think this year’s Barnidge, while probably on a lesser level, will be Bears tight end Zach Miller. Miller, 31, didn’t play a snap in the NFL in 2012, 2013 or 2014, but he played well enough in the second half of 2015 for the Bears to trade Martellus Bennett to the Patriots. Miller has 75-catch potential on an offense that should rank in the top five in pass attempts. 

40 – New England wins exactly 12 games for the fifth straight season.

I don’t care that Jimmy Garoppolo has to start for four games, or that Dion Lewis could miss the whole season, or that the offensive line, on paper, looks to be the team’s offensive weakness yet again in 2016. If Bill Belichick is the coach for 16 games, and Tom Brady is the quarterback for three-fourths of those games, this team is good enough to win its usual 12 games. In fact, that would be the fifth straight year for the Patriots winning exactly 12 games. 

41 – Tim Tebow’s baseball career ends with a .156 batting average and one home run. 

I have to address Tim Tebow’s baseball career. One of my all-time favorite athletes is Tim Tebow, but I think it’s safe to say he has virtually no chance of succeeding in professional baseball. I predict he ends his minor-league career with the Mets, however long that lasts, with a .156 average and one home run. 

42 – Andy Reid earns 12th postseason appearance and loses 12th postseason game. 

Andy Reid is the most underrated coach in the NFL. He consistently takes his teams into the postseason, yet he’s widely mocked across the NFL for his obvious weaknesses like clock management. The Chiefs are my pick to win the AFC West and earn a bye in the playoffs in 2016, but I also have them losing their first playoff game at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That would mark Reid’s 12th postseason appearance and his 12th postseason loss, because, in case you didn’t know, he has never won a Super Bowl. 

43 – Quarterback play ends Denver’s division title streak at 5. 

Only two teams in the NFL have won their division for at least five straight seasons. The first is so obvious that I don’t need to tell you, and the other is the Denver Broncos, starting with the Tim Tebow era in 2011. That streak is bound to come to an end in 2016, as Trevor Siemian might be the least-qualified Week 1 starting quarterback I can remember. Even Denver’s elite defense won’t be able to make up for quarterback play that will likely be worse in 2016 than it was in 2015.

44 – Eli Manning reaches the postseason for the second time in the last eight seasons. 

Eli Manning in the postseason? Believe it. The Giants have endured three straight losing seasons and have qualified for the playoffs just once in the last seven years, but I believe they have the talent to win a weak NFC East in 2016. Several big-name free-agent signings on the defensive side of the ball, a top-10 quarterback, the game’s most explosive receiver and my pick for this year’s breakout rookie running back will be enough for the Giants to win nine games and a division title. 

45 – NaVorro Bowman dominates the stat sheet in Chip Kelly’s defense.

One of the league’s best linebackers on a defense that will spend 55 to 60 percent of its snaps on the field? I can only imagine what type of defensive statistics NaVorro Bowman will produce in Chip Kelly’s defense. He’s my pick to lead the NFL in tackles and a sleeper pick to win Defensive Player of the Year. 

46 – Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers bounce back to score 500 points.

Forget what you saw from the Green Bay Packers in 2015. An overweight Eddie Lacy and no Jordy Nelson largely contributed to a Green Bay team that shockingly ranked in the middle of the pack in points scored. They’ll bounce back in 2016. Lacy is poised for a big season, Nelson is fully healthy and I’m expecting this offense to score its usual 500 points. 

47 – Russell Wilson wins regular-season MVP award.

Aaron Rodgers is the obvious and safe pick to win the NFL MVP award. Cam Newton could easily win the award again. Andrew Luck looks ready to rebound from a disappointing 2015 season. But my pick is Russell Wilson, who is now the focal point of his offense after the departure of Pro Bowl running back Marshawn Lynch. Wilson took a major step forward in the second half of 2015, turning Doug Baldwin into a legitimate number one receiver. I believe he’ll do the same with Tyler Lockett. Even with just 475 pass attempts, Wilson should hit 30-35 touchdowns, plus five more on the ground. 

48 – Aaron Rodgers fails to lead Green Bay to the Super Bowl for sixth straight season.

It’s become a pattern, where the Packers win 12, 13, 14 or even 15 regular season games and fail to reach the Super Bowl. I think it happens again in 2016, as the Packers lose at home to the visiting Cardinals. That would mark Rodgers’ second conference championship game loss in three years and mark an unprecedented sixth straight season that one of the most dominant quarterbacks in the sport’s history fails to reach the Super Bowl. 

49 – New England improves to 7-4 in AFC championship games in the Belichick/Brady era.

Six straight trips to the AFC championship game and 11 times in the last 16 seasons. That’s one of the most impressive accomplishments in NFL history. I initially picked Pittsburgh to reach the Super Bowl, but the suspension to Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell and injury concerns to Ladarius Green made me choose the Patriots as the AFC’s top overall seed. With New England at home, they’re not losing. 

50 – Arizona Cardinals defeat New England Patriots to win franchise’s first Super Bowl. 

One of the losingest franchises in NFL history, a team that won just one playoff game in the first 88 years of its existence, is finally ready to hoist the Lombardi trophy. A team loaded with offensive talent and stacked on defense will have its hands full facing the greatest head coach and quarterback combination we’ve ever seen in the history of the sport. But the Cardinals come out on top in yet another Patriots Super Bowl, just like the other six, that comes down to the final minute.