Part of the fun of the National Football League is making predictions and checking back at season’s end to see what was correct and what was drastically wrong.
This is my fifth such year of doing these lists. Click below to see previous lists.
I have had my fair share of misses. In 2012, I predicted Jake Locker would be an MVP candidate. He proceeded to go 4-7 as a starter with more interceptions than touchdown passes. I said Ryan Tannehill and RGIII would have miserable rookie years, I said Andy Reid would save his job with a 12-4 season (he went 4-12), and I had the Jacksonville Jaguars sneaking into last year’s playoffs (whoops).
I’ve also nailed quite a few. In 2013, I said someone would throw seven touchdown passes in a game. Peyton Manning did it in the very first NFL game of the year. I correctly predicted Luke Kuechly to win the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year award. I had Golden Tate as the steal of free agency last year, Maurice Jones-Drew as the most likely to bust, and a Luck-Manning playoff matchup.
This year’s was fun to write and will be even more fun to look back on after the season. Leave your comments below and tell me what you agree/disagree with.
Jameis Winston Throws for 400 Yards and Beats Marcus Mariota in NFL Debut
The pre-draft comparisons to Brett Favre mean Jameis Winston will likely be a high-volume passer who puts up yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. By either sheer luck or smart planning by the NFL’s schedule-makers, Winston and Marcus Mariota – the top two draft picks in this year’s draft – will face off against one another in their debuts.
Like Cam Newton in 2011, Winston’s first game will be one to remember. He’ll be forced to pass a lot, as it’s likely his own team’s 25th-rated defense from a year ago and the Tennessee Titans’ 27th-rated defense will lead to a shootout.
In all, Winston will finish with over 400 passing yards. He’ll throw three touchdowns and three interceptions, and hold off a furious Mariota comeback to win, 44-38, on a game-winning touchdown pass to Mike Evans in overtime.
Quarterbacks Who Pass for 4,000 Yards: Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Tony Romo
Last year, 11 NFL quarterbacks passed for over 4,000 yards. This year, it will be 12.
4,000-yard passers from 2014 who will miss out on it this year: Peyton Manning (4,727 yards in ’14).
Sub-4,000-yard passers from 2014 who will join the club this year: Tony Romo (3,705) and Sam Bradford (zero).
After Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger tied for last season’s lead with 4,952 yards, two quarterbacks will top that number in 2015. Andrew Luck will finish with the NFL’s highest passing yardage total at 5,323 yards, which would be the third-highest total in league history.
Running Backs With 1,000 Rushing Yards: Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Doug Martin, C.J. Anderson, Lamar Miller, Jonathan Stewart, Justin Forsett, Frank Gore
In 2014, 13 running backs topped the 1,000-yard rushing mark. Once again, 13 will do it, but don’t expect the same players to repeat.
1,000-yard rushers from 2014 who will miss out on it this year: LeSean McCoy (1,319 yards in ’14), Arian Foster (1,246), Alfred Morris (1,074), Matt Forte (1,038), and Jamaal Charles (1,033)
Sub-1,000-yard rushers from 2014 who will join the club this year: Mark Ingram (964), Doug Martin (494), C.J. Anderson (849), and Jonathan Stewart (809)
Marshawn Lynch leads the group with 1,404 yards, which would be his first NFL rushing crown and the second-highest single-season total of his career.
Randall Cobb Catches 130 Passes
Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL. Randall Cobb is a shifty, primarily-slot receiver who has an unbelievable rapport with Aaron Rodgers. Last year, passes from Rodgers to Cobb were thrown at a 72.8 percent completion rate, per Pro Football Focus. The year before, that number was 77.5, and in 2012, it was 78.4 percent.
Cobb will be targeted early and often. He’ll finish with 130 catches, which will be more than any receiver in NFL history except Marvin Harrison’s 143 in 2002 (Antonio Brown had 129 a year ago). Cobb will accumulate 1,418 yards and 10 touchdowns, making him a top-3 wide receiver in PPR leagues.
Dez Bryant Leads NFL with 18 TD Receptions
Wide receivers of Dez Bryant’s physical stature and talent don’t come along very often, and the Dallas Cowboys gave him $70 million over five years (including $32 million in guaranteed money) to keep him around.
Bryant had ‘just’ 88 catches in 2014, but put up a league-high 16 touchdown receptions. This year, he’s going to surpass that total and finish with 18 scores. Bryant is durable, having played all 48 games the last three years, he has an elite quarterback in Tony Romo and there’s no one to take away from his red zone targets.
Peyton Manning’s Final NFL Season is Marked by Severely Declining Arm Strength and Inconsistent Performances
It’s likely this is the end of the line for Peyton Manning, who has staked his claim as the greatest quarterback in NFL history since being drafted first overall in 1998.
Manning’s 2014 ended on a sour note, as the five-time league MVP suffered through a debilitating quad injury that sapped his ability to plant and throw the football with velocity. The unfortunate fact of life is that players experience more injuries as they age.
Manning is now 39 years old, entering his 18th NFL season and coming off a brutal five-game stretch to close out the year in which he threw four touchdowns to six interceptions (playoffs included). Manning and the first-team offense struggled to move the ball effectively in the preseason, and he will need to rely heavily on bellcow running back C.J. Anderson in ’15.
Don’t be surprised if Manning misses some games. His body has taken quite a beating over the years, and it’s likely this is his last season. He will assuredly be an effective quarterback for most of his starts, but expect more ‘duds’ than the usually always-reliable No. 18 puts forth.
Jordan Matthews Becomes the Third Eagles Receiver in Three Seasons to Finish With 1,300-Plus Receiving Yards
Chip Kelly’s system has produced career seasons out of both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and next in line should be 2014 second-round draft pick Jordan Matthews, a player who physically resembles A.J. Green in terms of body type, speed and measurables.
Jackson was famously released and signed with the Washington Redskins, and Maclin walked in free agency to be reunited with Andy Reid in Kansas City.
Matthews won’t be going anywhere, and his leap into the group of elite receivers will start this year as he puts up a 80/1,300/10 statline.
Andrew Luck Throws for 5,300 Yards, 48 Touchdowns, and Wins the NFL MVP Award
Three seasons into his NFL career, Andrew Luck is on his way to becoming one of the greatest to ever play the position, and his supporting cast just got even stronger.
The additions of first-round wide receiver Phillip Dorsett plus a pair of (possible) Hall of Famers in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson means there are weapons everywhere in Indianapolis, and an All-Pro throwing the ball to them.
Fresh off a 4,716-yard and 40 touchdown season, it’s not at all unreasonable for Luck to top those numbers. A 5,000-yard campaign will be the first of many for Luck, and he could threaten his predecessor’s league record of 5,477. The touchdown total of 48 may seem bold, but he did toss 40 a year ago, and the offense is much improved. That’s going to give Luck his first MVP award.
When Kirk Cousins Falters/Gets Hurt, Jay Gruden Will Start Colt McCoy over RGIII
RGIII’s fall from glory has been well-publicized, and the former 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year’s drop-off can be attributed to anything from injuries to character issues to a frightening nervousness in the pocket to a coaching staff, led by Jay Gruden, that wants no part of him.
There’s a pretty good chance Gruden outright releases Griffin rather than put up with him in the locker room this year. Gruden has already deemed ’12 fourth-round draft choice Kirk Cousins – a glorified interception machine who is 2-7 as a starter in three NFL seasons – as the season-long starter.
Cousins will undoubtedly struggle and/or get hurt. But when he does, Gruden won’t go to RGIII. He’ll go with Colt McCoy. If McCoy gets hurt, it will be someone signed off the street. Don’t expect Griffin to take another snap with Washington.
Johnny Football is a Season-Long Non-Factor
Remember the first-round pick the Cleveland Browns got from the Indianapolis Colts in the Trent Richardson trade? General manager Ray Farmer turned around and drafted Johnny Manziel.
That’s why bad teams stay bad.
Manziel’s first season was a colossal nightmare. He’s said all the right things this offseason, but the underlying issue may be his small stature that doesn’t seem likely to hold up in the NFL. Ownership has fully backed veteran journeyman Josh McCown, and if Manziel does see the field, he’s likely to get hurt pretty soon.
Best Free-Agent Offseason Signing: Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Chip Kelly essentially replaced LeSean McCoy with DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews (and Kiko Alonso!). Murray got the headlines, and deservedly so, as he’s fresh off an 1,800-yard rushing title, but Mathews may be the steal of free agency.
Just five years removed from being as first-round pick, Mathews has a Pro Bowl on his resume and he’s been a workhorse for a playoff team before. Mathews’ three-year, $11 million deal is very team-friendly, and there’s reason to believe he could push for 1,000 yards this season given Murray’s injury history and the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles want to spread the carries around more.
Worst Free-Agent Offseason Signing: Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Peyton Manning certainly didn’t ‘make’ Julius Thomas as an effective football player; after all, Thomas is a massive red-zone target and a former basketball player with exceptional athleticism. But the Jacksonville Jaguars have to be kidding themselves if they think Thomas can replicate the 12 touchdowns he put up in 2014.
Thomas was 20th among tight ends in receptions (43) and 19th in yards (489); that means he’s nearly entirely touchdown-dependent. He broke just two tackles all season, per PFF. By comparison, Martellus Bennett had 25. Rob Gronkowski had 19.
Thomas’ 2015 statistics will be tied to the development of second-year quarterback Blake Bortles; still, it’s extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which Thomas fulfills his $46 million contract, especially with $21 million guaranteed. And the fact that Thomas is already out 4-5 weeks with a hand injury doesn’t help his 2015 stock.
Alfred Morris Loses Starting Job, Gets One-Year Deal in Free Agency From Another NFL Team
There’s a lot of evidence to suggest Alfred Morris (an impending free agent) won’t be back with the Washington Redskins in 2016. The organization drafted his likely replacement in third-rounder Matt Jones, who has shone so far this preseason.
Morris’s numbers are notably worse with Kirk Cousins/Colt McCoy than running quarterback RGIII, and Morris doesn’t catch passes at all. By midseason, the Redskins may be splitting time between these backs, and I think Jones will be the future at running back in the nation’s capital. That means Morris may have to settle for a disappointing one-year deal from another NFL team come free agency time.
Best 2015 Rookie Draft: Atlanta Falcons
I have the Atlanta Falcons winning the NFC South in 2015 (more by default, as it’s expected to be a weak division). Their rookie class will be a big reason why.
Vic Beasley should finally be the dominant pass-rushing force the defense has lacked. LSU cornerback Jalen Collins was a valuable pick in Round 2, and if he can become anything close to a player Desmond Trufant is, that’s suddenly a dangerous cornerback tandem.
Tevin Coleman will be given every opportunity to win the starting job, and he has the explosiveness to make a lot of plays as a rookie. And fifth-round nose tackle Grady Jarrett was a steal late in the draft.
Worst 2015 Rookie Draft: New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints had multiple first-round picks, and grabbed offensive tackle Andrus Peat and inside linebacker Stephone Anthony.
Peat is projected to be just a backup in 2015, as he’s behind left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Zach Strief on the depth chart, and the fact that Peat reportedly showed up to rookie OTAs out of shape is discouraging.
Anthony was viewed as more of a mid-round prospect, and second-round pass-rushing linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha has a scary injury history. And third-round quarterback Garrett Grayson (hopefully) won’t play a snap as a rookie. This doesn’t mean the team had a poor draft, but don’t expect much in 2015.
The Seattle Seahawks Will Drastically Miss Center Max Unger
The Seattle Seahawks got themselves a talented tight end in Jimmy Graham, but they gave up quite the ransom – a first-round pick plus a Pro Bowl center in Max Unger.
With Unger now in New Orleans, the Seahawks will be forced to start Drew Nowak, a 2012 undrafted rookie free agent who hasn’t played center since high school and has played one regular-season snap in three NFL seasons. Nowak’s welcome-to-the-NFL moment will be a Week 1 matchup against St. Louis Rams’ phenom, Aaron Donald.
That’s a problem for a team expecting to compete for another Super Bowl title, and it will put increased pressure on Russell Wilson to make plays with his legs.
Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden < DeMarco Murray
Jerry Jones’ decision to let DeMarco Murray leave in free agency seemed probable considering the Dallas Cowboys allowed him to touch the ball nearly 500 times in 2014 (playoffs included). But the fact that the team didn’t draft a single running back was perplexing; it seems the organization is willing to bet that its top-notch offensive line can simply manufacture a productive rushing attack out of any backs.
Last year’s backup, Joseph Randle, and oft-injured veteran, Darren McFadden, will be the lead backs, with Lance Dunbar also in the mix, as well as recent trade acquisition Christine Michael, a SPARQ freak who never put it together in Seattle. For a team that went 12-4 a year ago, it’s surprising that Dallas didn’t make the running game more of a priority. Expect the Cowboys to be around the middle of the pack in rushing yards gained in 2015.
Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel Continue Down the Path of First-Round Bust Status
The 2013 NFL draft class is making its claim as the worst in recent years, highlighted by offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel at the top (plus third overall pick, Dion Jordan, who is currently suspended for the entire ’15 campaign).
Fisher has battled an ankle injury all preseason and has done nothing so far to make the team think he’s capable of living up to his status as a first overall pick. He’s been moved to right tackle for 2015. Meanwhile, Joeckel was Pro Football Focus’s 67th-rated offensive tackle in 2014, and he’s hindering the development of hopeful franchise quarterback, Blake Bortles.
It’s not hopeless for these two; Dallas’ Tyron Smith (9th overall draft pick) was abysmal as a pass-blocker as a rookie in 2012 and Russell Okung (6th overall draft pick in 2010) was a liability for his first two NFL seasons. Both are now Pro Bowlers and franchise left tackles, so theoretically, there’s still hope for Fisher and Joeckel. But they better turn it around quickly or they may be moved to right tackle and then benched.
New Orleans’ Emphasized Ball-Control Offense Still Results in Another 4,000-Yard, 30-Touchdown Season From Drew Brees
All the signs are there that the New Orleans Saints want to shift from a high-powered Drew Brees-centered passing attack to a ball-controlled offense that wins by grounding and pounding. In a single offseason, the team
1) extended running back Mark Ingram
2) signed pass-catching specialist C.J. Spiller
3) drafted offensive tackle Andrus Peat in the first round
4) traded away All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham for a Pro Bowl center, not to mention a 2016 first-round pick
5) traded downfield threat Kenny Stills for a 2016 third-round pick
Sean Payton also theoretically drafted Brees’ long-term replacement in Garrett Grayson; after all, Brees is 36 years old and coming off a season in which his arm strength visibly declined.
Still, Brees is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and a top-10 quarterback who ever lived; he’s not going to simply drop off the face of the planet. After averaging 659 pass attempts the last five seasons – to go along with 5,077 passing yards and 39 touchdowns – Brees may play a similar role to 2014 Tony Romo, where the team’s emphasized running game leads to 550 passing attempts but actually a higher efficiency than ever before.
Brees should still top 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns with ease, and that will give him his 10th Pro Bowl selection and move him past Dan Marino on the NFL’s all-time touchdown passes list.
Miami Gets a Dominant Season From $100 Million Man Ndamukong Suh But It’s Not Enough to Make the Playoffs
Miami paid Ndamukong Suh $114 million to be an absolute one-man wrecking crew and anything short of 20-sack seasons and perennial Defensive Player of the Year awards, Suh’s contract is going to be too much for him to fulfill.
He’s an immensely talented player but when an organization is paying a defensive player nearly $20 million – plus the cost of keeping a franchise quarterback around – it forces GMs to be very frugal with the other spendings. Suh will probably be very good in 2015 because he’s a very good player, but it won’t be enough for Miami to make the playoffs or the NFL’s worst coach to keep his job.
Your 2015 Under-the-Radar Superstar: Brandon Williams, NT, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens traded away Haloti Ngata largely to free up $16 million in cap space (as well as bring in a fourth-round pick), but it also allows 2013 third-round pick Brandon Williams to step into a role as the starting nose tackle.
Williams rated per Pro Football Focus as a top-10 player at his position a year ago, despite playing in only about half of his team’s defensive snaps. He’s a 350-pound immovable force capable of filling the same 0-technique role that Ngata thrived in; Williams’ impact may not be so evident on his own stats, but he’s going to make life a whole lot easier for Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil.
Superstar Whose Season is Lost Due to Nagging Injuries: Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson is still just 29 years old, but his body has taken quite a pounding in the NFL. He’s been targeted an average of 153 times per season since 2008, and injuries have begin to take their toll on him.
Last year, Johnson missed three games with a high ankle sprain. The previous season, he missed two with a sprained knee that eventually required arthroscopic knee surgery. And in 2012, he didn’t miss any time but still battled through a sprained ankle, thumb, knee, and bruised foot.
Like a pitcher with heavily mileage under him, Megatron is more susceptible to injuries than he was in his younger days, and there’s a good chance he missed multiple games again in 2015.
It’s a Season-Long Battle Between Washington and Cleveland for the No. 1 Overall Pick in 2016
The Washington Redskins have overtaken the Oakland Raiders as the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchise, largely because of their recent quarterback carousel. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns will be going with either Josh McCown or Johnny Football, neither of whom is anything close to a long-term quarterback solution.
The Redskins and Browns will combine for six wins, and both teams will be looking to take a quarterback high in the 2016 draft.
Tyrod Taylor Plays Well Enough to Keep Buffalo Afloat
It looks as if the Buffalo Bills are going to roll with Tyrod Taylor as their 2015 quarterback. Taylor has a similar skill set to Russell Wilson in that he’s an undersized mobile quarterback; Taylor was electrifying at Virginia Tech but hasn’t actually started an NFL game yet in three seasons.
Taylor won’t lead the league in passing yards, but he’s going to scare defenses with his ability to make plays on the ground. If Taylor can throw more touchdowns than interceptions and rush for some scores, Buffalo should be happy.
Khalil Mack Leads NFL With 19.5 Sacks And Wins Defensive Player of the Year
Khalil Mack is on track to becoming the most dominant defensive player in the NFL outside of J.J. Watt. As a rookie in 2014, he was the No. 1-rated 4-3 outside linebacker in the league, per PFF, earning positive marks in 14 of his 16 games. In fact, the only defensive player with a higher grade for the year was Watt.
Mack had just four sacks, but that wasn’t because he wasn’t getting to the quarterback; he still had 10 hits and a ridiculous 40 hurries. Mack will be even better in 2015. He’ll lead the league with 19.5 sacks and actually edge out Watt for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award.
Peyton Manning Wins the Last Ever Manning vs. Brady Matchup
As mentioned, I don’t envision Peyton Manning having the most dominant season, but in what will likely be the final Manning-Brady matchup ever, I think Manning brings his ‘A’ game.
Manning is 5-11 career against Brady, although they’ve split the four playoff matchups, with Manning most recently edging Brady 26-16 in the 2013 AFC Championship Game. The highest-scoring contest between these two included 72 total points (both Manning and Brady have 38-34 wins against the other), but this one will have even more points.
Manning’s Broncos beat Brady’s Patriots, 39-36, in overtime.
Steve Smith, Sr. Caps Off A Hall of Fame Career With Another 1,000-Yard Season
Steve Smith, Sr. has recently announced he’ll be retiring after the 2015 season, and one more Pro Bowl campaign may put him in the Hall of Fame.
As it stands now, the former third-round draft pick has 915 receptions for 13,262 yards. He’s 18th all-time in catches and 14th in yards. With one more 1,000-yard campaign, he’s going to have about the same number of receiving yards as Reggie Wayne, a top-eight receiver in history by receiving yards. That should be enough to get Smith, a five-time Pro Bowler, enshrined in Canton, Ohio.
Tony Romo Cements Himself as a Top-5 NFL QB By Leading NFL in QBR Again
Tony Romo has become criminally underrated at this point in his career. He benefited greatly from a top-notch running game in 2014, leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.9), touchdown percentage (7.8), yards per attempt (8.5), passer rating (113.2) and QBR (82.75).
He has Dez Bryant back, as the Dallas Cowboys re-signed their All-Pro wide receiver to a five-year deal, and Jason Witten is as reliable as ever. Romo has suited up for 62 of the last 64 games, so even his recent back surgeries haven’t kept him out of too many contests.
Expect a slight drop-off from his ’14 numbers but not by much.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Keeps the Starting Job All Season – and No One Punches Him in the Jaw
The New York Jets probably got an upgrade at the quarterback position when Geno Smith was punched out, as veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick will now step into a full-time role.
Fitzpatrick is coming off a season in which he threw 17 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, while posting solid numbers in terms of completion percentage (63.1) and passer rating (95.3). Even when Smith returns from his injury, the Jets will stick with Fitzpatrick, simply because he’s better.
Sam Bradford Plays 15-of-16 Games; Becomes First Eagles QB With 4,000 Passing Yards
This is Chip Kelly’s ultimate test; can he turn a former No. 1 overall draft pick who has disappointed through five NFL seasons into a Pro Bowl quarterback for the league’s most potent offense?
If preseason is any indicator, Bradford could be a player. He possesses a rifle of a throwing arm, and he looks to be in full command of the Kelly offense already. He has an underrated set of weapons, and an elite running game should do to him what it did to Tony Romo last season – take pressure off him to make as many plays.
Bradford will likely miss at least a game, simply because he’s what you would call injury-prone. But there’s a good chance he becomes the first Eagles quarterback ever to pass for 4,000 yards in a season, which would be enough to earn him Comeback Player of the Year award.
Odell Beckham, Jr. Repeats His Rookie Season – Nagging Injuries and Amazing Games
As a rookie, Odell Beckham, Jr. took the NFL by storm, putting forth arguably the greatest season by a first-year wide receiver in league history, cemented by The Catch.
The 2014 hamstring injury that caused him to miss the first four regular-season games could plague him again as a sophomore; after all, OBJ has already struggled with it this summer, and there’s reason to believe he will miss time in 2015.
Sports Injury Predictor gives Odell Beckham an 88 percent chance of getting injured this season, third-highest among all wide receivers.
— Bryn Swartz (@eaglescentral) August 15, 2015
Expect OBJ to be a dynamic receiver – when he’s on the field.
Antonio Brown’s Five-for-50 Streak Ends at 41 Games But He Still Finishes 100/1,500/10
You could make a case that Antonio Brown is the best non-QB, non-J.J. Watt player in the National Football League. Despite not being blessed with prototypical NFL size, Brown combines the league’s best route-running ability with unbelievable explosiveness and acceleration, plus an underrated catch radius.
His most impressive accomplishment may be his 5-for-50 streak; Brown has caught at least five passes for 50 yards in 32 consecutive regular-season games. His worst game in 2014 – from a fantasy perspective – was five catches for 84 yards.
Sheer mathematical odds suggest the streak has to end eventually. But Brown isn’t finished being an elite player, and he’s going to have another All-Pro season. (If you’re playing PPR, take him first).
Adrian Peterson Plays 14-of-16 Games; Rushes for 1,211 Yards and 10 Touchdowns
Typically, 30-year-old running backs aren’t fantasy stalwarts, but Adrian Peterson has defied the odds once before, rebounding from a debilitating leg injury in 2011 to nearly break Eric Dickerson’s 30-year-old rushing record in ’12.
Peterson looked like he may be an offseason trade candidate (or outright release), but the Minnesota Vikings opted to restructure his deal to keep him around for up to three more seasons.
Due to AP’s age and injury history, as well as the cruelty of the running back position, Peterson could miss some time in 2015. But I think he’s a talented enough player to put forth a Pro Bowl season, especially that he has fresh legs under him.
The NFL’s First-Team All-Pro Offensive Line: LT Tyron Smith, LG Josh Sitton, C Jason Kelce, RG Chance Warmack, RT Lane Johnson
Shoutout to the most overlooked positional group in the NFL. If you’re playing in an offensive line fantasy league (although I don’t think they exist), go with these players:
LT – Tyron Smith: An elite player in both pass-blocking and run-blocking, still just 24 years old.
LG – Josh Sitton: Aaron Rodgers’ best offensive lineman didn’t give up a single sack in 2014.
C – Jason Kelce: No player better fits what Chip Kelly does with his zone-blocking scheme.
RG – Chance Warmack: Former top-10 pick developing into the game’s best RG.
RT – Lane Johnson: Former high school quarterback has unteachable athleticism.
Eli Manning Throws for 5,000 Yards in Quest to Become NFL’s Highest-Paid Player
Doesn’t it seem like every time Eli Manning calls himself elite, he follows with a great year? Just recently, he declared he wants to be the NFL’s highest-paid player.
Manning is 34 years old, and in this day and age, that means he’s got at least five more seasons. He’s never missed a game to injury. He’s coming off his finest NFL season in terms of completion percentage (63.1) and QBR (70.93). And he’s loaded with offensive weapons, ranging from OBJ to a (hopefully) healthy Victor Cruz to Rueben Randle to new pass-catching back Shane Vereen.
Manning nearly hit 5,000 yards in 2011, finishing at 4,933. This year, he’ll get and finish at 5,072. If he plays that well, he’s going to be able to name his price in salary negotiations.
Your Most Effective Cornerback in 2015 – Desmond Trufant
The NFL’s top cornerbacks are Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, followed by Chris Harris and Vontae Davis. But you could make a case that Atlanta’s Desmond Trufant is fifth, and by the end of 2015, he will be strongly in the discussion.
Trufant, a former first-round pick from ’13, thrived down the stretch a year ago. He’s going to lead the NFL in passer rating allowed this coming season, posting a 38.7 mark, highlighted by five interceptions.
Tre Mason and Todd Gurley Become a Dangerous Rushing Tandem by December
Jeff Fisher loves quality running backs. He likely envisions Tre Mason and Todd Gurley being as effective as Chris Johnson and Lendale White were in 2008.
Mason rushed for 765 yards and four scores as a rookie in 2014, but the team still couldn’t pass up a rare talent in Gurley with the 10th overall pick. When Gurley is healthy enough to play, he and Mason are going to give Nick Foles a lethal running back duo.
Neither will reach 1,000 yards, but as a joint effort, they’ll help the St. Louis Rams finish as a top-5 rushing offense.
Trent Richardson Gets Cut From Whatever Team Decides to Sign Him
Trent Richardson is already staking his case as one of the biggest draft busts of all-time, especially when you factor in that two different teams gave up a first-round pick for him.
The Oakland Raiders were the latest team to take a shot on Richardson, but they cut him when he mustered just 42 rushing yards on 15 carries in the preseason (and the fact that he showed up to OTAs overweight didn’t help).
Someone will surely take another flier on T-Rich, given his status as a former high draft pick. But whichever GM convinces himself he can be the one to resurrect Richardson will surely be disappointed.
First-Time Pro Bowl Second-Year Players: Khalil Mack, Taylor Lewan, Anthony Barr, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Corey Linsley
Khalil Mack will be a defensive monster this season and for many to come. Taylor Lewan played well as a left tackle a year ago and is set to become a Pro Bowler. Anthony Barr should rack up 12+ sacks. Jordan Matthews will have a 1,300-yard season under Chip Kelly’s offense, and Davante Adams could do the same playing for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. And Corey Linsley was a sensation as a fifth-round rookie in 2014, and he’s ready to take that next step.
Andre Johnson Posts First Double-Digit Touchdown Season of NFL Career
Since he debuted in the NFL, Andre Johnson has seven Pro Bowl appearances, five 100-catch seasons, and a surefire path to the Hall of Fame. Yet he’s never posted double-digit touchdowns in a year, which says a lot about the dismal quarterbacks he’s had to work with (David Carr, Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, and Case Keenum, to name a few).
Johnson is 34 years old, but he’s shed the injury-prone label by suiting up for 47 of the last 48 contests, and he’s now in the best situation of his career. Throwing passes to him will be 2015 NFL MVP Andrew Luck, arguably the most talented quarterback in the game next to Aaron Rodgers. That should be enough for Johnson to put up 12 touchdowns, as well as another 1,000-yard season.
A Playoff Game is Decided by a Missed (Long) Extra Point
The new extra-point rules in the NFL will undoubtedly lead to some games decides by virtue of a missed extra point. It’s still considered a given that all extra-point tries will be successful but expect a key game – maybe a playoff game – to be decided by a miss at an inopportune time.
For the Second Straight Year, Oakland Nails it With a Top-5 Overall Draft Pick
As a rookie in 2014, Oakland pass-rushing linebacker Khalil Mack was an absolute stud. He finished as PFF’s highest-graded 4-3 outside linebacker, even edging out Von Miller, a human highlight reel.
This year, the Raiders grabbed Alabama wideout Amari Cooper, a more NFL-ready version of Sammy Watkins. Cooper has an up-and-coming quarterback in Derek Carr to work with, and there’s no one in Oakland who will take targets from Cooper. He’s going to easily surpass 1,000 yards as a rookie, even in a poor overall offense.
Once Again, No NFC South Team Has a Winning Record
The NFC South should be pretty competitive in 2015, but more because there’s no standout team that will run away with the division. Last year, the Carolina Panthers rebounded from a 3-8-1 record and Cam Newton car accident (at one point going two-and-a-half months with just one win) to win four straight and the NFC South crown at 7-8-1. The Panthers lucked out and even won a playoff game by beating up on Ryan Lindley in the Wild Card round.
This year, it’s anyone’s division once again.
The New Orleans Saints are going to run the ball much more. Their fate relies largely on the ability of $54 million safety Jairus Byrd to rebound from last year’s meniscus injury and shore up the secondary. The Atlanta Falcons have some key pieces in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Desmond Trufant, but their offensive line is very unproven, as is their pass rush. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the upside, but will be starting a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston.
Atlanta wins this at 8-8, emerging at the top of a logjam of NFC South teams.
Your 2015 Division Winners
Not many surprises here:
AFC East: New England (12-4) – Brady & Belichick. Enough said.
AFC North: Baltimore (10-6) – Harbaugh is too good to miss the playoffs, even in tough division.
AFC South: Indianapolis (12-4) – 2015 NFL MVP Luck leads highest-scoring offense in league.
AFC West: Denver (10-6) – Denver will win more via ground game and defense than Manning.
NFC East: Philadelphia (12-4) – Chip will make a player out of Bradford, but don’t ignore front seven.
NFC North: Green Bay (13-3) – Difference between Lions and Packers? Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South: Atlanta (8-8) – New head coach Quinn will lead Atlanta to division title.
NFC West: Seattle (10-6) – Hangover for defending NFC champs still results in 10 wins.
Your 2015 Wild Card Teams
NFC (1): Dallas (10-6) – Murray will be missed but Romo/Dez about as good as it gets.
NFC (2): Minnesota (9-7) – Bridgewater backed by AP plus very underrated defense.
AFC (1): San Diego (10-6) – Chargers will push for division crown but fall just short.
AFC (2): Pittsburgh (9-7) – Steelers will win 34-31 games all year.
Chip Kelly Beats Pete Carroll in NFC Divisional Game
Beating the two-time defending NFC champions would certainly legitimize Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle is no slouch, and the Eagles will have Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham to contend with, as well as arguably the best defense in the game.
Philly is pretty tough too, though. There’s a dynamic rushing attack, an underrated set of weapons, a ferocious front seven and a special teams unit that just makes plays. And Sam Bradford, who will win NFL Comeback Player of the Year and establish himself as a top 10-12 quarterback in a pretty elite group of signal-callers.
Eagles win this one, 27-24.
Andrew Luck Bests Tom Brady in AFC Championship Game
This would be Tom Brady’s 10th AFC Championship Game, which is an absolutely remarkable achievement.
But Andrew Luck is going to win this one because he has more weapons and by this point in the season, he will be a better quarterback than Brady. Colts win a shootout, 38-31.
Aaron Rodgers Beats High-Powered Chip Kelly Offense in NFC Championship Game
The Philadelphia Eagles should be really good this year, but the further you advance in the playoffs, the more it comes down to which team has the better quarterback, and guess what?
Rodgers > Bradford all day.
Green Bay wins this one to go to their second Super Bowl in six years.
Rodgers-Luck Super Bowl Features 700 Combined Passing Yards
On the NFL’s biggest stage, you know neither Aaron Rodgers nor Andrew Luck will go down quietly. Each team has a solid secondary, but solid secondaries don’t stop Rodgers or Luck.
Rodgers will pass for 360 yards and three touchdowns, while Luck puts up over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The game goes to overtime tied at 28 points apiece.
Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts Win it On a Walkoff Touchdown Pass to T.Y. Hilton
What fun this would be to watch. The Indianapolis Colts get the ball first and Luck methodically marches the Colts down the field before hitting T.Y. Hilton on a 37-yard fly pattern to secure the Super Bowl championship.
