run by Ronald Jones II #27 during their NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 15, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Nothing is normal about this NFL season.
To start, the season in itself expanded from a picture perfect 16-game slate to 17 games. Combining with the addition of an extra playoff team from a year ago, the NFL goes from a perfect two conferences, four divisions, eight playoff teams, and 16-game schedules to 2/4/7/17. Not quite the same mathematical symmetry.
The whole COVID thing looms large with the league threatening to cancel games if unvaccinated players cause an outbreak. Taunting has been banned, and more teams than usual will put forth a new quarterback, with others like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers wanting out, while no one knows what will happen with the awful Deshaun Watson situation.
Some things are still the same though. Like most years, Tom Brady won last year’s Super Bowl, Aaron Donald is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, a Watt brother is the highest-paid defensive player, and Derrick Henry is breaking tackles.
This is my 11th year making NFL predictions. Some are bold, some are not. I’ll probably get some of these right and many of them wrong. Check it out:
Derrick Henry wins a third consecutive rushing title.
There aren’t many human beings in the world like Derrick Henry, a massive 6’3”, 247-pound running back who unbelievably gets stronger as the game goes on. Henry has led the NFL in all three rushing statistics – attempts, yards, and touchdowns – in each of the last two seasons. Normally, that’s cause for concern for a player, as extreme workload tends to break a running back down.
But Derrick Henry isn’t normal. Normal running backs don’t get better as the game goes on and as the season goes on like Henry. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter last year and averaged 178 ground yards per game over the final four weeks of 2020. He also gets an extra game thanks to the 17-game schedule, and plays in an offense designed to maximize his skills.
Derrick Henry prediction: 337 carries, 1,659 rushing yards, 4.92 YPC, 14 touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence finishes second in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting – to Trey Lance.
There were five first round quarterbacks from the 2021 draft class, and it’s not unreasonable to think all five end up being successful pros.
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones are guaranteed to be Week 1 starters. Justin Fields will begin the year on the bench behind Andy Dalton, and Trey Lance will back up Jimmy Garoppolo. Lawrence inherits arguably the worst offensive roster, but he’s so talented as a player, that he will make strides immediately.
Even with a subpar offensive line, it’s not unrealistic to think he could surpass 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. And that will get him second place in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting – behind Trey Lance.
No one knows when Lance will start, but keep in mind that incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo has an extensive injury history. Lance will see the field and he’ll see it early. Once he begins playing, he will show why he was the No. 3 overall draft selection. He’s an incredible talent in an offensive system that maximizes YAC potential with playmakers George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.
Trevor Lawrence prediction: 4,037 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
Trey Lance prediction: 3,145 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 8 interceptions; 342 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns
Odell Beckham, Jr. endures another fantasy irrelevant season, then is traded in the offseason.
It seems like it’s been forever since Odell Beckham, Jr. was making one-handed catches and taking the league by storm. After averaging a 96/1,374/12 statline through three NFL seasons, it looked as if OBJ was en route to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Since then, he’s been mired by injuries (25 missed games in four years) and inconsistent quarterback play. OBJ hasn’t hit any of the receptions/yards/touchdowns total he hit in each of his first three years. Surprisingly, he hasn’t even made a Pro Bowl since 2016.
The Cleveland roster legitimately looks like a Pro Bowl roster, but Beckham’s best days are likely behind him. He’s rated as PFF’s 48th-best receiver since joining the Browns, trailing less-than-notables such as Tim Patrick, Jakobi Meyers, and Danny Amendola. He’s not even breaking tackles like he used to, averaging just 3.9 yards after the catch per reception compared to 5.5 in his first three seasons.
OBJ prediction: 65 receptions, 973 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns; traded to SF for second round pick in offseason
Joe Burrow is on the David Carr track.
It’s a scary situation for the Cincinnati Bengals’ organization. They invested the first overall selection in Joe Burrow, only to see him tear his ACL and MCL after 10 productive games. Drafting Ja’Marr Chase may have looked good on paper, but that means the Bengals are putting an awful lot of faith in 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams – who has missed 22 of 32 career games due to injury – to protect Burrow’s blind side. Burrow will be protected by what PFF projects to be a bottom-eight offensive line entering 2021. Burrow will start all 16 games but frequently be under duress, taking 52 sacks in the process. Let’s hope he isn’t the next David Carr, but 2021 won’t go well.
Coaches to be fired during/after 2021: Mike McCarthy, Kliff Kingsbury, Zac Taylor, Mike Zimmer, Vic Fangio, Matt Nagy
A disastrous defense betrays Dallas in a year in which their offense is explosive, resulting in Jerry Jones looking for a splashy new coach after 2021. Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t taken that next step yet as head coach, and following another sub-.500 season, he’s likely back to the college ranks. Zac Taylor quietly has a dreadful 6-25-1 record in two years and needs to take a big leap to keep his job. That won’t happen.
Mike Zimmer has been a good coach for his Minnesota tenure, but the warning signs are there for a rough year. The organization will make a change after the year. Vic Fangio doesn’t have the quarterback he needs to be a long-term solution, and when he gets fired, Denver will be looking for its sixth coach since Mike Shanahan left after 2008. And Matt Nagy has done a better job than people realize, especially given the quarterback problems he’s had to overcome. But failing to make the playoffs likely will result in his being fired.
The Houston Texans are absolutely unwatchable.
Brace yourself, Texans fans – it’s going to be bad. Deshaun Watson probably won’t play in 2021. DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt are gone. David Culley is the new head coach, and while he seems like a genuine nice guy, he’s vastly underqualified to be leading a football team. The Texans were last in takeaways with Watt last year, and their offense is full of veterans that don’t fit well. Houston will finish last in point differential and win just three games.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ revamped offensive line works like a charm.
Last year’s Super Bowl was a textbook example of a bad offensive line betraying even the best of quarterbacks. Missing both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz at the tackle positions, Patrick Mahomes was forced to run for his life for 60 minutes.
Surprisingly, Kansas City released both Fisher and Schwartz, but still made sizable investments in the offensive line position this past offseason. The Chiefs sent a first rounder to Baltimore for Orlando Brown, who will slide in at left tackle. They paid $80 million to guard Joe Thuney. And they invested a second round pick in center Creed Humphrey.
The right side of the line is still questionable with right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Lucas Niang (although they do get back the doctor, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif). Still, the substantial upgrades on the left side make for at least a formidable offensive line. With a quarterback like Mahomes, everyone looks and plays better. Expect Kansas City to be the No. 1 offense again.
New England’s $150+ million guaranteed offseason spending spree results in a playoff berth for Bill Belichick.
It’s baffling how many people considered the Brady vs. Belichick debate over after 2020. Besides the fact that it’s not an either/or debate (both were crucial to the dynasty), waving the white flag either way after just one season is odd.
After a year in which he squeezed every last drop of football out of Cam Newton, Belichick drafted Mac Jones in the first round and went on a serious spending spree. In just one offseason, he brought in tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, edge rusher Matt Judon, cornerback/safety Jalen Mills, and receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.
Belichick is too good to miss the playoffs in consecutive years. This defense, even with Stephon Gilmore’s injury, will be fierce. Expect to see The Hoodie back in the postseason.
Derwin James becomes the first safety in over 20 years with 5 INT and 5 sacks in the same season, winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
New coach Brandon Staley had to have Derwin James’ versatility in mind when he took the head coaching position for the Los Angeles Chargers. Staley used two high safeties on a league-high 45 percent of defensive snaps last year. James – assuming he’s healthy – can literally play anywhere on the field.
The last year that James saw action, 2019, saw him used in the following way: 119 snaps at left linebacker, 95 at right linebacker, 60 at slot corner, 13 at free safety, 7 at cornerback, 5 at strong safety. It’s a remarkable deployment all over the field for one of the NFL’s brightest stars, and he’s going to explode in 2021.
Given a clean bill of health, James will be the first safety in over 20 years with at least five interceptions and five sacks in the same season, earning him an easy NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Derek Carr is benched for Marcus Mariota in Week 14.
It’s been said before that Jon Gruden’s favorite quarterback is always his next one. With the Las Vegas Raiders on the verge of another year without the playoffs, Jon Gruden will bench Derek Carr for Marcus Mariota heading into the Week 14 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a panic move, and one that won’t work out in the form of a playoff berth, but it will result in another long offseason for the Raiders, and likely a trade request from Carr.
Adrian Peterson signs with a team in October. Frank Gore does not.
The NFL doesn’t look kindly to 30-plus running backs, but these two future Hall of Famers have managed to be the exception over the last five years.
Adrian Peterson has played for four different teams since leaving Minnesota, but has still suited up for 47 of the last 48 games and put up 604 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns for Detroit a year ago. There’s still a role for AP in the right system in which he can be a goal line runner.
Meanwhile, the ageless wonder Frank Gore has been a sub-replacement level back for years, but has still managed to get an expansive workload. He posted a 187/653/2 rushing line at age 37 in 2020, an age when most running backs of his career have already been inducted into the Hall of Fame. It’s remarkable durability for Gore, but teams won’t be interested in a 38-year-old this coming year, especially one who has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry over the last two seasons.
The Raiders finish last in the NFL in takeaways, points allowed, and sacks.
Barring an offense resembling The Greatest Show on Turf Rams, this would give Jon Gruden four losing seasons in four years since taking over as head coach again.
There’s not much reason for optimism regarding this year’s Raiders. 2019 No. 4 overall draft pick Clelin Ferrell is listed behind Maxx Crosby on the depth chart. Last year’s first round corner, Damon Arnette, is also listed as a backup per Ourlads.
As a team, the Raiders were bottom three in points allowed, takeaways, and third down conversion rate a year ago. They play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice each in 2021. They’re going to be awful at generating any sort of a pass rush, and the fact that they reportedly (link) tried to bring back Khalil Mack via trade tells you that they know it too.
Ryan Fitzpatrick reaches the postseason for the first time in his 17-year NFL career.
No quarterback in the history of the NFL has thrown as many passes as Ryan Fitzpatrick has without reaching the postseason. Fitzpatrick’s 5,054 pass attempts include a 10-6 record with the 2015 New York Jets, which is the closest to date he’s come to reaching January football.
This year, Fitzpatrick is flanked by a quarterback’s best friend – a defense. In fact, this Washington defense is going to be so good that Fitzpatrick’s role will be substantially easier. There’s Antonio Gibson running the ball, future All-Pro Terry McLaurin at wide receiver, breakout tight end Logan Thomas, and new $34 million receiver Curtis Samuel, who could be used in multiple ways in the offense.
Fitzpatrick is at least a league-average quarterback at this point in his career. Since 2018, he’s completed 64.8 percent of his passes with an impressive 7.9 yards per attempt and a 91.8 passer rating. He’s also a threat as a runner and has a limited injury history. He’s a better fit for Washington that people realize.
Ryan Fitzpatrick prediction: 65.4 completion percentage, 4,124 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 91.3 passer rating; 227 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
Antonio Gibson finishes as a top-five fantasy running back.
The comparisons between Antonio Gibson and Christian McCaffrey are popping up in the fantasy community, and there are reasons to believe Gibson can offer elite production.
As a rookie in 2020, Gibson rushed for 795 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, and he did this in essentially his first year ever playing running back. A college wide receiver, Gibson has efficient pass-catching skills. Even without stellar receiving numbers a year ago, Gibson should only get better as he gets more NFL experience. And as an added bonus, he’s coached by Ron Rivera, who oversaw McCaffrey’s 2019 campaign (league-high 2,392 scrimmage yards and 19 total touchdowns).
Antonio Gibson prediction: 248 carries, 1,120 yards, 11 touchdowns; 62 receptions, 634 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns; 310 touches, 1,744 scrimmage yards, 15 total touchdowns
T.J. Watt becomes the first $30 million per year defensive player.
T.J. Watt is set to enter the fifth year of his rookie contract with a base salary of $10.089M, and his production so far suggests the sky is the limit for his next contract.
In four years, Watt has averaged 12 sacks and four forced fumbles per year, earning three Pro Bowl selections and two First-Team AP All-Pro nominations. He’s fresh off a year in which he led the NFL with 15 sacks, adding a pair of forced fumbles. In a league in which pass rushers get paid, Watt is due to get paid.
Frank Clark is the highest-paid defensive player for 2021 ($25.8M). Joey Bosa holds the highest average annual value ($27M) and highest guaranteed amount ($102M). Watt will break all of those numbers.
T.J. Watt contract prediction: five years, $144M total ($28.8M per year), $108M guaranteed
Chase Young becomes Washington’s first player to earn a First-Team All-Pro selection in 25 years.
How about this for a fact? The creatively-named Washington Football Team hasn’t had a First-Team AP All-Pro selection since 1996 – and it was their punter, Matt Turk.
RGIII didn’t make it when he was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012. Trent Williams never made it. Neither did the late Sean Taylor. Every other team has done it during this span; most teams have done it within the last three to five years.
But Chase Young was selected No. 2 in last year’s draft for a reason. He’s a freakishly talented pass rusher who racked up 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles as a 21-year-old rookie in 2020, doing so without the benefit of a traditional training camp or any preseason.
Washington’s defensive line is anchored by four first round picks in Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen. The amount of talent in that pass rush is going to be more than enough to wreak havoc on quarterbacks around the league. Even when he’s double teamed, there will be no stopping Young.
Chase Young prediction: 12.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles
Indianapolis’ top-five defense gets coordinator Matt Eberflus a head coaching job after 2021.
The Indianapolis Colts quietly finished as both a top-10 scoring and total defense in 2021, and they’ve been in the top half of all teams in all three years under Matt Eberflus. They’re in a division that will likely be starting a rookie in Trevor Lawrence and a journeyman in Tyrod Taylor, which bodes well for the Colts.
The stars are there. DeForest Buckner is a stud. Darius Leonard is on track for the Hall of Fame. Xavier Rhodes had a bounceback campaign at cornerback. And Kwity Paye on the edge has the potential to be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Eberflus should have fun with this group and it will get him a job as a coach in 2022.
Best offensive free agent acquisition: Joe Thuney, G, Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Thuney is a rock solid offensive lineman, and those guys get paid big money. After watching Patrick Mahomes run for his life in the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs dolled out $80 million to Thuney for a five-year deal.
Thuney was PFF’s 10th rated overall guard for New England a year ago, suiting up for 980 snaps and grading out well both in the passing game and running game. He’s not going to win league MVP, and he’ll probably spend much of 2021 flying under the radar. But with Thuney (and Orlando Brown) on the left side of the line, Andy Reid can breathe a lot easier knowing Mahomes is well-protected.
Worst offensive free agent acquisition: A.J. Green, WR, Arizona Cardinals
By virtue of name alone, A.J. Green is a massive signing. The seven-time Pro Bowler has had a Hall of Fame-worthy career, gaining over 9,400 receiving yards and 65 touchdowns in a decade with Cincinnati.
But his best days are long behind him. After a 75/1,078/8 season in 2017, Green has totaled just 1,217 yards the last three years, missing 25 of 48 games due to injury. Last year, he was particularly ineffective, finishing with just a 47/523/2 statline despite playing all 16 games. Green couldn’t beat man coverage anymore, averaging a paltry 1.25 yards per route run on 36 targets vs. man.
Green signed just a one-year, $6M deal with Arizona in the offseason, but will likely enter Week 1 as the starter opposite three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. Based on what we saw from Green a year ago, anything the Cardinals can get from him is a bonus.
A.J. Green prediction: 34 receptions, 346 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Best defensive free agent acquisition: John Johnson III, S, Cleveland Browns
Losing John Johnson III is a massive blow for the Los Angeles Rams’ defense. There aren’t many safeties that were the quarterback of their defense, but Johnson held that distinct honor. He signed a three-year, $33M deal with the Cleveland Browns, which will prove to be a steal about five minutes into that new deal.
Johnson was PFF’s No. 3 overall rated safety in 2020, finishing top-seven in both run defense, tackling, and coverage. He’s quite literally a do-all safety who will do wonders for an up-and-coming Browns team. Expect Johnson to push for All-Pro honors this coming year.
John Johnson III prediction: 4 INT, 1 sack, 1 FF, Pro Bowl
Worst defensive free agent acquisition: Trey Hendrickson, DE, Cincinnati Bengals
Trey Hendrickson had a breakout 2020 campaign, picking up 13.5 sacks and earning a massive four-year, $60M contract with the Cincinnati Bengals in free agency. To be fair, it’s essentially just a one-year deal (Hendrickson can be released as a post-June 1 cap hit in the summer of 2022 at only $3.75M dead money per year).
Still, that’s a lot of money to pay for a player who entered last year with just 6.5 career sacks and three games started. Hendrickson won’t bring Cameron Jordan or Marcus Davenport with him to Cincinnati. He won’t even have the benefit of longtime standout pass rusher Geno Atkins at the three-technique role. Hendrickson has a lot of pressure to perform on this new deal, and outside of a contract year breakout performance, his career has been underwhelming.
Trey Hendrickson prediction: 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
Dallas’ defense shows no improvement under new coordinator Dan Quinn.
Last year’s Dallas Cowboys were an absolute trainwreck under coordinator Mike Nolan, ranking 28th in points allowed (473) and surrendering over 2,500 rushing yards. The Nolan hire was a disaster, and he’s since been replaced by former Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. The problem is… Quinn isn’t that good on the defensive side of the ball.
In five full seasons as the Falcons’ coach, Quinn’s teams ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed three times – and were trending toward a fourth before Quinn was fired after an 0-5 start a year ago. His lone success as a D coordinator came when he had Hall of Famers Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner on his side.
Pass rush will be the biggest issue for Big D, although the secondary may not be much better. Demarcus Lawrence has just 11.5 total sacks the last two seasons, and he’s flanked by Randy Gregory, who had dealt with multiple PED suspensions during his career. Jaylon Smith is reportedly on the roster bubble, Leighton Vander Esch has dealt with serious neck injuries, and Micah Parsons is talented but unproven. The secondary, ranked 31st by PFF entering the year, is relying heavily on second-year player Trevon Diggs.
Daniel Jones turns in the Carson Wentz special, leading the NFL in turnovers and sacks.
The early returns on Daniel Jones haven’t been great in New York. He’s 8-18 in two years as a starter and regressed badly in 2020, seeing his touchdown percentage cut in half while once again leading the league in fumbles.
The organization made multiple attempts this offseason to improve Jones’ receiving corps, adding prized free agent addition Kenny Golladay and first round speedster Kadarius Toney at wide receiver, plus veteran tight end Evan Engram. Those are quality players, and Jones also gets Saquon Barkley back.
But the receiving corps is rendered irrelevant if Jones has no time to throw the football, and his offensive line is frighteningly awful. Last year’s No. 4 overall pick, Andrew Thomas, was an extreme liability at left tackle, allowing 57 quarterback pressures (tops in the NFC) while posting the league’s lowest pass-blocking grade per PFF. Left to right, this line of Thomas, Shane Lemieux, Nick Gates, Will Hernandez, and Matt Peart doesn’t look promising on paper.
Daniel Jones prediction: 16 interceptions, seven lost fumbles, 47 sacks
Minnesota’s young offensive line doesn’t give Kirk Cousins the protection he needs.
Minnesota’s offensive line is going to be scarily bad this year. The organization knew it needed to take serious measures this offseason, and did so by drafting left tackle Christian Darrisaw in the first round.
But Darrisaw has missed nearly all of the summer with multiple groin surgeries, meaning former undrafted free agent Rashod Hill is slated to start in the blind spot. Right tackle Brian O’Neill is a solid player, although a $92 million contract seems steep. The guard spots are manned by two-first time starters, contributing to PFF’s preseason 27th-ranked offensive line.
It’s going to be a rough season for Cousins, who is slated to earn a fully guaranteed $45 million in 2022. The Vikings are locked into him for a minimum of two more seasons, and it could get ugly in Minnesota.
Running back woes contribute to Lamar Jackson’s struggles.
From the day he stepped on the field in the latter half of 2018, Lamar Jackson has been an enigma. He cast aside his critics with a 2019 MVP campaign, then brought back skeptics in a 2020 that saw his passing numbers (while still being impressive) regress.
Jackson’s game is predicated largely on Baltimore getting a lead, then running the ball down its opponents’ throats. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, he’s the highest-rated passer in the first quarter when he has the lead (7 TD, 0 INT, 135.4 rating). He’s also the leading rusher of any position (177 yards on 6.1 yards per carry.
The problem is that Jackson won’t have last year’s leading rusher, J.K. Dobbins (torn ACL), or backup, Justice Hill (also a torn ACL) (update: and now Gus Edwards!). And when Jackson is trailing in the second quarter or later since 2019, he falls to eighth in passer rating (95.4) and he’s just 38th in rushing yards (310). Defenses haven’t figured out Jackson, but they’ve made major strides in figuring out ways to minimize his MVP play.
Lamar Jackson prediction: 3,165 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 120 carries, 916 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns
A 44-year-old Tom Brady throws for 5,302 yards and 45 touchdowns, winning his fourth NFL MVP award.
Is it a bold prediction to pick a 44-year-old quarterback to win the NFL MVP or is it not that bold because we’ve seen Tom Brady defy Father Time since tearing his ACL at age 30?
Brady blew away expectations in his first year in Bruce Arians’ system, passing for 4,701 yards and 40 touchdowns while pushing the ball at the clip of a 10.1 aDOT compared to 8.5 in his last year with Bill Belichick. His offense returns all 11 starters (plus all 11 on defense!), and Brady now had a full offseason practicing with his team.
He’s going to be even better in 2021. It’s hard to believe, but we’re about to see Brady take his game to a new level, turning in possibly the greatest ageless season of all-time. And just wait until you get to the playoff section.
Calvin Ridley leads the NFL in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while Kyle Pitts makes the Pro Bowl in Year 1.
It’s breakout season for Calvin Ridley in Atlanta. He’s the alpha dog now with Julio Jones in Tennessee, and don’t forget how Ridley performed in games Julio missed a year ago. In seven Julio-less games, Ridley led all NFL players in receiving yards (765), putting him on track for what would be an 1,800-yard season in the new 17-game slate.
1,800 yards might be a little rich, but Ridley is due for an explosion of numbers. He’s also now flanked by jack-of-all-trades tight end Kyle Pitts, the versatile rookie tight end who can line up as an in-line tight end, slot receiver, or even out wide. The two of them will give Matt Ryan two elite targets.
Calvin Ridley prediction: 212 targets, 126 receptions, 1,678 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns
Kyle Pitts prediction: 128 targets, 81 receptions, 914 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
Carson Wentz doesn’t work out in Indianapolis.
The Carson Wentz experience already seems to be off to a shaky start in Indianapolis. He suffered a foot injury in his first week of practice with his new team, then was put on the COVID-19 list after coming in close contact with someone who had the virus. In a league strongly encouraging its players to get vaccinated, the fact thar Wentz remains unvaccinated to go with inaccurate, injury-prone, and expensive is not a good recipe for success.
He’s also without his left tackle in Eric Fisher and No. 1 wideout in T.Y. Hilton, while All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is recovering from the same foot injury Wentz has. Expecting Wentz to return to his elite 2017 form is a long shot; Wentz has seen his completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, passer rating, and ANY/A drop in each of the last two seasons. He’s no longer a good quarterback. Realistically, he could soon be playing for his NFL future.
Carson Wentz prediction: (12 games): 2,652 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 76.6 passer rating; Eagles do not get back a first round draft pick in 2022
Aaron Rodgers throws 42 touchdowns to just six interceptions in his final year in Green Bay.
It’s Aaron Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay, and he’s going to prove to his new team that he has plenty left in the tank. Fresh off a season with 48 touchdown passes, just five interceptions, and the second-highest single-season passer rating of all-time (121.5; behind his own record), Rodgers is set to come close to another record-breaking year.
With 42 touchdowns, he’ll expand on his own NFL record with four 40-TD seasons, remarkably doing so without reaching double-digit interceptions in any. Davante Adams will catch 18 of them, even Randall Cobb will have a productive season given his age, and new slot receiver Amari Rodgers will be a good No. 3 weapon.
After the season, Rodgers is shipped to Denver for two first round picks, a third round pick, and a fifth round pick.
No games are cancelled due to COVID-19.
The NFL’s vaccination policies are strict, almost making it difficult for unvaccinated players, especially those on the roster bubble, to play in the league. The NFL already announced if a game is cancelled due to a COVID outbreak among unvaccinated players, the club with the outbreak will forfeit the game.
It’s admittedly harsh, but keep in mind that no games were cancelled in 2020 due to the virus. Players will undoubtedly miss games (Zack Martin in Week 1 is the first), but no team will have to forfeit.
Sean Payton/Pete Carmichael utilize Taysom Hill as their red zone/big play quarterback.
Much like the 1985 Philadelphia Eagles that used Ron Jaworski on first and second downs with Randall Cunningham coming in on third-and-long, we’re about to see something crazy with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill.
The physical tools of Winston have to be tantalizing to Sean Payton; after all, if Winston could throw for 5,000 yards ad 33 touchdowns in Bruce Arians’ vertical passing attack in 2019, surely Payton could do something equally as special (without the 30 interceptions).
But Payton has invested too much in Hill, a remarkably underrated athlete who has been used all over the field in gadget roles over his time in New Orleans. Without Drew Brees around anymore, we may see something crazy, like Winston/Hill alternating entire series or even switching up downs in the same series.
A San Francisco defensive line full of first round draft picks leads the NFL in sacks.
Here’s your San Francisco defensive line: Nick Bosa (2019.1.02), Javon Kinlaw (2020.1.14), Arik Armstead (2015.1.17), and Dee Ford (2014.1.23). While SF didn’t draft Ford, they traded a second round pick to get him, meaning the draft capital invested in this line is expansive.
Bosa appears to be fully healthy following last year’s ACL tear. The same goes for Ford, who has been plagued by knee injuries the last two years. Fred Warner’s presence in the front seven makes life substantially easier for the defensive line. And if Richard Sherman re-signs (prediction: he does), this becomes a top-five defense that will lead the NFL in sacks.
Seattle doesn’t let Russell Wilson cook – and that’s ok.
Russell Wilson has been openly vocal about his desire to throw the ball more, and for the first eight weeks of 2020, Pete Carroll let him do it. Midway through the year, Wilson was averaging a career-high 37 passes per game with 28 touchdown passes and a ridiculous 117.1 passer rating. Even with a steep second-half decline, he still set career-highs with 384 completions, 558 passing attempts, and 40 touchdown passes.
Seattle won and lost based on Wilson’s turnovers. They were 12-0 when he turned the ball over one or fewer times and 0-4 when he turned the ball over multiple times. Throwing the ball more leads to a greater opportunity to turn the ball over, and while it’s not as simple as handing the ball off every play to avoid turnovers, there’s a correlation between a balanced run game and a team winning.
Tony Romo’s career best in passer rating was 2014, when he threw the ball just 435 times. Ben Roethlisberger’s best was 2007, when he totaled just 404 pass attempts. Even Tom Brady’s record-breaking 2007 season saw him throw the ball ‘just’ 578 times, the 10th-highest total of his career.
The best method for Seattle is a healthy dose of Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny teamed with Wilson’s playmaking abilities.
Russell Wilson prediction: 536 pass attempts, 4,003 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 103.0 passer rating
Quarterbacks in their last year starting with their current team: Ben Roethlisberger, (Deshaun Watson)/Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold
Ben Roethlisberger will retire after his 18th NFL season. Everyone knows Deshaun Watson won’t be back in Houston, and obviously Tyrod Taylor is simply a stopgap who won’t start over 2022’s first round quarterback. Aaron Rodgers will be shipped to Denver for a boatload of draft picks. Teddy Bridgewater is an obvious stopgap. Derek Carr isn’t Jon Gruden’s preferred long-term answer at the position. Jared Goff and Sam Darnold are just buying time for new first round quarterbacks. (Andy Dalton isn’t listed because Justin Fields will start more games than him in 2021).
Saquon Barkley resets the running back market in the upcoming offseason.
The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament with Saquon Barkley. He’s a freakish talent, admittedly with an injury history. The Giants are just 15-33 in the three seasons since drafting him, and he’s missed over a third of those games.
Barkley is also just 24 ½ years old with two 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his resume and a slew of highlight plays. He could struggle behind a horrendous offensive line, but there’s no way the Giants will let someone walk who they spent the No. 2 overall pick on.
Saquon Barkley contract prediction: 4 years, $70 million, $48 million guaranteed
Brandon Staley wins AP Coach of the Year.
Sean McVay was the offensive boy wonder, but Brandon Staley was the defensive coordinator version of that for the Los Angeles Rams last year. He coaxed a No. 1 ranked defense out of them, then left for the other Los Angeles team as a head coach.
Staley has Justin Herbert to work with, which should be job security enough, but he also has standout defensive players in Joey Bosa and Derwin James (health permitting). Winning the AFC West will be difficult as long as Patrick Mahomes is around, but Staley will win 12 games and the top wild card spot.
Offensive First-Team AP All-Pro selections:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry
WR: A.J. Brown
WR: Terry McLaurin
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: CeeDee Lamb
T: Trent Williams
T: Terron Armstead
G: Quenton Nelson
G: Ali Marpet
C: Alex Mack
Defensive First-Team AP All-Pro selections:
DE: Chase Young
DE: Myles Garrett
DT: Aaron Donald
DT: Ed Oliver
LB: T.J. Watt
LB: Darius Leonard
LB: Devin White
CB: Xavien Howard
CB: Jalen Ramsey
S: Harrison Smith
S: Derwin James
FLEX: Tyrann Mathieu
NFC East winner: Washington
Washington’s stellar defense to go with an underrated duo of Antonio Gibson/Terry McLaurin makes them the first NFC East team to repeat as division champions since the 2003-’04 Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas’ offense will be stellar, but that defense will cost them too many games. The Eagles are significantly better than people think, but they’re more of a .500 team. And the New York Giants could have a bottom-five offense barring an unexpected leap from Daniel Jones.
NFC East prediction: Washington (10-7), Dallas (8-9), Philadelphia (8-9), NY Giants (5-12)
NFC North winner: Green Bay
Green Bay is the easy choice in the NFC North. It’s not just Aaron Rodgers but a defense full of superstar players (Kenny Clark, Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander) will win a lot of games for the Packers. Detroit is safely rebuilding. Minnesota has some good pieces but lacks the offensive line skill to protect Kirk Cousins. And Chicago is more likely to be a middle-of-the-pack team, especially if Andy Dalton gets a lot of starts.
NFC North prediction: Green Bay (12-5), Chicago (9-8), Minnesota (7-10), Detroit (4-13)
NFC South winner: Tampa Bay
It’s as simple as the defending Super Bowl champions returning all 22 starters (and Tom Brady!). New Orleans should still be a playoff team due to quarterback guru Sean Payton. Atlanta is without Julio Jones for the first time in a decade and needs someone to step up as a pass rusher. And Carolina is putting a lot of faith in Sam Darnold.
NFC South prediction: Tampa Bay (13-4), New Orleans (9-8)*, Atlanta (8-9), Carolina (5-12)
NFC West winner: Los Angeles
Count me among the people believing that Sean McVay’s addition of Matthew Stafford will work. Losing defensive coordinator Brandon Staley will undoubtedly hurt, but the Rams do still have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, possibly the two best defensive players in the league. San Francisco is too good and too talented to miss the playoffs. Seattle is top-heavy enough that the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll combination will earn another postseason berth. And I have Kliff Kingsbury on my list of coaches to get fired, with Arizona as a team taking a major step back.
NFC West prediction: Los Angeles (12-5), San Francisco (12-5)*, Seattle (9-8)*, Arizona (6-11)
AFC East winner: Buffalo
It’s surprising that Buffalo made no upgrades at the running back corps after 2020, but with Josh Allen/Sean McDermott/Brandon Beane, they’re in line to be a powerhouse for years to come. New England will be better than everyone expects, but a wild card berth is more realistic for this coming season. Miami is due to regress. Even with an upgraded wide receiver corps, Tua Tagovailoa likely isn’t the long-term solution at the position. And the New York Jets are building for the future, not now.
AFC East prediction: Buffalo (12-5), New England (11-6)*, Miami (8-9), NY Jets (6-11)
AFC North winner: Cleveland
Cleveland’s roster is so ridiculously stacked. There are two great wide receivers and two running backs and a loaded offensive line and Myles Garrett and new defensive additions in John Johnson III and Troy Hill. This team should cruise to a playoff berth. Baltimore has been hammered by injuries but still possesses enough depth and a tremendous coach/quarterback combination to expect a playoff berth. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will be a serious problem, but the defense will keep the team in playoff contention all year. And it’s going to be a long and painful year for Joe Burrow behind a makeshift offensive line.
AFC North prediction: Cleveland (11-6), Baltimore (10-7)*, Pittsburgh (9-8), Cincinnati (5-12)
AFC South winner: Tennessee
Tennessee is one of the more top-heavy teams in the NFL and will need Derrick Henry to stay healthy )as he’s done so far throughout his illustrious career) for the offense to be maximized. A 28th ranked total defense was a problem last year and won’t keep Tennessee from winning the division, but will make it more difficult. Indianapolis will have a Carson Wentz problem all year. Jacksonville has its quarterback of the future but nothing else. And don’t watch any Houston Texans games.
AFC South prediction: Tennessee (9-8), Indianapolis (7-10), Jacksonville (5-12), Houston (3-14)
AFC West winner: Kansas City
Nothing and no one will be stopping the Kansas City Chiefs from winning the AFC West title, but the Los Angeles Chargers are here to make a statement. Brandon Staley is the NFL’s next great coaching hire, and a young team of Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James has untapped potential. Denver won’t win anything in 2022 but the core of the team is an Aaron Rodgers away from serious contending. And things will get very ugly in Las Vegas.
AFC West prediction: Kansas City (14-3), Los Angeles (12-5)*, Denver (8-9), Las Vegas (6-11)
NFC championship game: Tampa Bay over San Francisco
Tom Brady in the conference championship game is something we’ve seen 13 times, and this would make number 14 in his illustrious career. In this one, he’d be playing not Jimmy Garoppolo, but Trey Lance – a quarterback who was born three weeks after Brady was drafted. Brady wins it, but Lance still puts on a show, accounting for 330 total yards and three touchdowns.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, San Francisco 21
AFC championship game: Kansas City over Los Angeles
This would be four years as a starter and four years in the AFC Championship Game for Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid’s ninth conference championship game. Mahomes throws for 358 yards and four touchdowns against Brandon Staley’s defense, outdueling Justin Herbert.
Prediction: Kansas City 34, Los Angeles 31
Tampa Bay repeats as Super Bowl champions.
What do you say at this point? This would be eight Super Bowl rings in 11 appearances for Tom Brady, and he’d be the only quarterback to win multiple Super Bowls. He’s legitimately created a superteam, and there’s reason to believe Tampa Bay can remain competitive for as long as Brady wants to keep playing. Patrick Mahomes falls to 1-2 in Super Bowls, but don’t forget that three Super Bowl appearances (and a win) is really, really good.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Kansas City 20
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
It’s cliched – maybe – but who else would win it? Brady throws for 376 yards and two touchdowns, giving him no less than six Super Bowl MVPs.
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