Wasn’t this supposed to happen last year? Wasn’t last offseason when the Eagles were going to trade a slew of draft picks to move up to the second pick and select a franchise quarterback?
Those were my first thoughts when I heard the Eagles had actually completed a massive draft day trade with the Cleveland Browns for the number two overall pick. Here’s what the Eagles gave up:
2016 1st, 2016 3rd, 2016 4th, 2017 1st, 2018 2nd
Here’s what they received:
2016 1st, 2017 4th
That’s five draft picks for two, a net value of minus three. The Eagles spread out the picks so it’ll be 2019 until they have all their picks like normal. By then, both Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson could be gone. Or the Eagles could quickly be turning into one of the league’s powerhouses, on the heels of the game’s best young quarterback.
And that leads into the first question. WHO is the quarterback the Eagles have traded up for? How weird is this situation? You trade five draft picks for a quarterback, but it’s unclear which one it will be?
For starters, I believe the Eagles definitely know who they’re trading up for. This isn’t a situation where they’ll just take which ever quarterback the Rams don’t pick, whether that’s Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. They know. I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire NFL knows. But the NFL is all about drama, and of course the rumors are circulating around that the Rams could pick either Goff or Wentz.
Let’s say the Rams pick Goff. That’s what Adam Schefter said on Tuesday and that’s what the great majority of experts are saying. That leaves the Eagles with Carson Wentz as their quarterback of the future, and all signs have indicated that he is the quarterback they prefer.
The first question is what the Eagles would do with the 6’4 elephant in the room. That would be Sam Bradford, who has found himself to be the subject of trade rumors each of his two offseasons in Philly. Adam Schefter reported that Bradford is mad about the Eagles’ trade for a quarterback, to which I respond that the Rams and Eagles are mad about the way he has played over the last six seasons.
Per Spotrac, the Eagles owe Bradford $18 million if they cut him now. Obviously that isn’t going to happen. They owe him $11 million if they trade him before June 1st. They owe him $5.5 million if they trade him after June 1st. While it’s certainly plausible to think a team like Denver, San Francisco or the Jets would be interested, the Eagles have already come out and said they’re not trading Bradford. Now teams lie all the time, but I’ll give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt. They’re been planning this trade for weeks and if they were going to trade Bradford, I think we’d know about it. I would support the move, but it’s very unlikely.
Bradford will be the starter in 2016, whether you think he deserves it or not. He’s making $18 million and he’ll look to finally turn in the breakout season the entire NFL has been waiting for since he was picked first overall in 2010. If he does, which isn’t likely, that’s great. He’ll have a year remaining on his contract and the Eagles can trade him, hopefully for a first or even a second-round pick. If he plays like he has every other year of his career, the Eagles can still try to trade him for a mid-round pick, and if they can’t find a suitor, they’ll just have to cut him and take their losses.
That leaves the big question of whether Chase Daniel, already the highest-paid backup QB in NFL history, will remain second on the depth chart, or if he’ll drop to third between the new rookie quarterback. I think there’s a virtual guarantee that Daniel will remain the backup this season. I don’t agree – he’s clearly not the future so why should he start if Bradford is injured – but there’s no doubt the Eagles will make their new quarterback the third-stringer in 2016.
The big question, of course, is who is that quarterback. Is it Jared Goff? Or is it Carson Wentz?
Goff is the more NFL-ready prospect. He went to Cal, instantly making people think of Aaron Rodgers. A junior in 2015, Goff has thrown 78 touchdowns against just 20 interceptions in the last two seasons. He’s just 21 and won’t turn 22 until October. He was the projected number one overall pick by many experts at the end of the college football season. Mel Kiper had Goff picked second overall in his first mock draft following the Super Bowl.
Wentz, however, was an afterthought several months ago, even after the end of his college career. After all, he started just 23 games over his career, all in his final two seasons. He played just seven games in 2015, missing time with a broken right wrist, although he did return late in the season to lead North Dakota State to their fifth consecutive FCS championship. But that’s not USC, Ohio State or Alabama. It’s North Dakota State. It’s Division I-AA. It’s worth mentioning also that Wentz is 23, turning 24 in December. That’s pretty old for a rookie. By comparison, 2014 number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, entering his third season, is younger than Wentz.
Goff’s NFL comparison is Matt Ryan. Wentz’s is Ben Roethlisberger or Blake Bortles. Those are the common comparisons I see on scouting profiles. Personally, I want Wentz. He’s bigger, has speed and a better arm. He’s more of a project, with a higher ceiling and a lower floor. He’d actually benefit greatly from sitting for a year behind sam Bradford and learning from former quarterbacks Doug Pederson and Frank Reich.
I’m torn on who I think the Rams will pick. The great majority of experts are convinced that Goff is heading to the Rams, simply because he’s from Los Angeles and he’s more NFL-ready. Podcasts like First Draft (Kiper & McShay) and Mike & Mike haven’t even really entertained the idea of Wentz going to the Rams. This is interesting because when the Rams initially traded up for number one, almost everybody immediately assumed their pick would be Wentz. I think this is a situation a lot like last year, where it’s pretty evident the Rams are picking Goff, as we felt the Buccaneers were picking Winston, but there’s a small part of all of us that wonders if we’re in for a big surprise.
Regardless, the future of the Eagles’ franchise dramatically changed on Wednesday afternoon. But did it change for the better? That’s obviously a question we won’t know for years.
I’ve gone back and forth on the trade about 7,682 times since it happened. Here’s what I keep coming back to. The Eagles weren’t winning a Super Bowl with Sam Bradford at quarterback, as much as some couldn’t accept that. Bradford isn’t good enough. He’s not good enough to take a team to 8-8. He can’t play a full season without an injury. I really shouldn’t have to sell you on why Bradford wasn’t the guy moving forward.
What’s the bigger risk: moving forward with QB mediocrity, QB purgatory, in Sam Bradford? Or trading a bunch of draft picks for the best or second-best quarterback in the draft?
Wentz isn’t Peyton Manning. He’s not Andrew Luck. He’s not even a Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota prospect. But what’s the alternative? The Eagles are likely going to win 6 to 8 games this season. They’ll pick around 12th in the first round. If there are two or three franchise quarterbacks in the 2017 draft, they very likely won’t be able to trade up for one. They had to do something.
I wish the Eagles didn’t have to give up so much. I’m actually really surprised they couldn’t make the trade and give up less. But they’ve been desperate for a quarterback since the end of the Donovan McNabb era. Owner Jeff Lurie hasn’t made it a secret. He’s obsessed with finding a franchise quarterback. He should be too. The Eagles have somehow managed to post three double-digit win seasons since 2010 despite cycling through many mediocre quarterbacks. It’s time to end that.
Take a chance. A big chance. That’s what the Eagles did. What’s the worst thing that will happen? The Eagles continue to not win a Super Bowl? The move could absolutely blow up in the Eagles’ face. If it does, Wentz walks at the end of his rookie deal, Roseman and Pederson are fired, and the Eagles have to start over again in their quest for a quarterback. But what if it works out?
Now is the time for patience. The Eagles will likely let Bradford play the 2016 season unless he plays like he did in the first half of the 2015 season (which, knowing Bradford, is very possible). The main goal for the 2016 Eagles is hoping Bradford plays well enough to entice a high draft pick from another team. It feels like the plan, at least on paper, is for Carson Wentz to take over as the starter in 2017. It’ll be frustrating since 2016 is a little bit of a lost season, but the Eagles are far from the only team to sit a highly-drafted quarterback for his rookie season. They’re not the only team to overpay a mediocre starter and an unproven backup. And they’re not the first team to go all-in in their quest for a franchise quarterback.
Ask yourself this: Is there a better chance of Carson Wentz (or Jared Goff) leading the Eagles to a future Super Bowl title than whatever the Eagles’ future plans at quarterback were just two months ago? I think that answer unequivocally has to be yes.
