It’s safe to say the first month of the season hasn’t gone as expected for Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. With three losses in their first four games, the Eagles face a major uphill battle to have any chance at reaching the postseason.
In fact, it’s safe to say that if the Eagles don’t win in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints, their season is over. Only nine teams in NFL history have reached the postseason following a 1-4 start. If the Eagles can’t beat teams like the Dallas Cowboys, without Tony Romo for a portion of the game, the Washington Redskins with Kirk Cousins, and a hapless Saints team with one of the league’s worst defenses, the playoffs just aren’t happening this year.
Or are they?
After all, the rest of the NFC East has been a complete disaster so far this season.
The Dallas Cowboys started off the season strong, winning their first two games, but they’ve since dropped consecutive contests and appear, on paper at least, a virtual lock to lose against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who are fresh off a bye, in Week 5. Their entire season will likely come down to when Tony Romo (collarbone) and Dez Bryant (foot) return. By that time, the Cowboys could be 3-6 and nearly out of the postseason hunt.
The Washington Redskins, with a 2-2 record, look to have their strongest team in years. They’re running the ball as well as any team in the league, they’re playing better than expected in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and they’re a top 10 scoring defense through four games. But they still have turnover machine Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and their upcoming schedule (at Atlanta, at NY Jets, Tampa Bay, bye, at New England) suggests that they’ll likely be 3-5 at the halfway point of the season. There are a lot of reasons to think the Redskins could win seven games, but not many to think they’ll capture the NFC East title.
The New York Giants, also at 2-2, appear to be the biggest threat. If not for a pair of double-digit blown fourth-quarter leads to the Atlanta Falcons (4-0) and Dallas Cowboys (2-0 with Tony Romo), they’d be undefeated. Eli Manning has thrown for seven touchdowns against just one interception, and the defense ranks 11th in scoring. Their schedule is pretty easy too, as they could be favored in their next five games.
If the Eagles want to have any chance of winning the division, they have to find a way to win tiebreakers. They’ve dug themselves into a pretty big hole through the season’s first quarter. Not only are they 1-4, but they’re 0-4 in the NFC and 0-2 in the division. Realistically, they need to win at least three of their final four division games, and it’s a necessity to beat Dallas in Week 9. Games against Carolina and Arizona could be huge for tiebreaker scenarios too.
For what it’s worth, one advanced analytical site seem to think the Eagles have a pretty good chance of reaching the playoffs. ESPN’s new Football Power Index gives the Eagles a 39 percent chance of winning the division, higher than any of the other three NFC East teams.
Football Outsiders gives the Eagles an 18.2 percent chance to win the division, and a 23.6 percent chance to reach the playoffs. That feels like a more realistic estimate than 39 percent, which really doesn’t make sense to me with the way this team has played so far.
At this point, the Eagles need to be more concerned with quantity of wins than quality of wins. It doesn’t matter if they go out and beat the Saints by three points or 34 points. A win is a win, and after three losses in four games, the Eagles can’t afford a fourth loss, especially to yet another weak NFC team.
The Eagles can still win the NFC East, and very well may if they win in Week 5. But if they lose, again, and drop to 1-4, it’s pretty much over in Philly. And that’s a shame because just one month ago, this team was considered one of the more popular Super Bowl sleeper picks in the league.
