Carson Wentz has an extremely bright future with the Philadelphia Eagles. We saw what he did in his first three NFL games, when he became the first quarterback in league history to win each of his first three starts without throwing an interception. He’s built like a prototypical franchise quarterback with excellent size, a strong arm, and an uncanny ability to manage the game at the line of scrimmage.
It’s also no secret that Wentz has struggled since his hot start, whether it be due to Lane Johnson’s suspension, a limited receiving corps, or simply the rookie woes that hit a young quarterback.
Since Week 4, Wentz has thrown just four touchdown passes to five interceptions. Among the 32 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes, he’s 27th in yards per attempt (6.48), 29th in passer rating (78.2), and dead-last in touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.80). He’s still completing a fairly high percent of his passes, but that’s more been the result of a watered-down dink-and-dunk offense to complement the Eagles’ (lack of) receivers.
As a result, the Eagles have struggled. The team, which was once 3-0, has lost four of five games. Remarkably, Football Outsiders still gives Philadelphia a 51.9 percent chance to make the playoffs, which seems generous given their brutal upcoming schedule.
To get back on track, the Eagles will need Wentz to be sharp against Atlanta. Early interceptions have been the problem for Wentz, who has now thrown four on the season. That puts the team in an early hole, and forces Wentz to have to lead a late comeback. So far, he’s been unable to do so, with Philadelphia having dropped all four one-score games.
The Falcons won’t be an easy opponent for the Eagles’ defense, given how well Matt Ryan has passed the ball this year. But it’s a favorable matchup for Wentz. Atlanta’s defense rates 26th in the league in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. They’ve given up more passing touchdowns (23) than any other team. In the last two games, the Falcons have allowed a total of eight touchdowns (without recording an interception) to Jameis Winston/Mike Glennon and Aaron Rodgers. Better yet for Wentz, Atlanta will be without top cornerback Desmond Trufant, a former first-round pick who ranked ninth overall among cornerbacks in 2015 (per PFF).
The Falcons are much better at stopping the run, where most rankings have them hovering around a top-10 unit. And the Eagles’ backfield is a timeshare split among Darren Sproles, which sprinklings of Ryan Mathews, Wendell Smallwood, and Kenjon Barner mixed in. It’s more likely Wentz will need to move the ball through the air.
There’s enough evidence so far to suggest Ryan will light up the Eagles’ defense. He’s been matchup-proof so far, even playing well against Seattle’s Legion of Boom secondary. So that means Wentz will need to play stride for stride with Ryan if the Eagles want to have a shot to win this game.
Jordan Matthews is a solid slot receiver who would fare much better with a true deep threat to take the top off the defense. Nelson Agholor is simply overmatched at the NFL level, and there have been few positive signs from trade acquisition Dorial Green-Beckham this season. Recent practice squad call-up Bryce Treggs burned the New York Giants for a 58-yard reception last week in his first NFL game, and time will tell if he can emerge as a legitimate downfield weapon for Wentz. Zach Ertz has been a lost cause this year until last week’s breakout game; a reemergence of Ertz as one of the league’s better tight ends would go a long way to aiding Wentz.
Winning this game catapults Philly right back into the thick of the NFC East mix; losing this drops the club under .500 and seriously threatens their postseason chances, especially with a road matchup at Seattle and a home date with Rodgers looming.
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