AL West: Texas 1, Houston 2, Seattle 3, Los Angeles 4, Oakland 5
Last year’s surprising AL West champion is my pick to repeat, thanks to a strong young core led by Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo. The Astros have the most young talent of any team in the league, with Carlos Correa, already a popular MVP pick, and Dallas Keuchel, last year’s Cy Young winner. They should be in contention for at least a wild-card spot. Seattle has now surpassed the Angels, who are a Mike Trout injury away from losing 95 games. And Oakland’s days of Billy Beane’s Moneyball philosophy feel like an enternity ago because right now, the Athletics are just void of talent.
AL Central: Cleveland 1, Kansas City 2, Chicago 3, Minnesota 4, Detroit 5
I find it fascinating that many baseball simulations don’t just have the Kansas City Royals missing the playoffs; they have them finishing with a losing record. I don’t see it. The Royals have the same core of talent that has won them two straight pennants and their bullpen is still the game’s best. They’ll make the playoffs. But I have the Cleveland Indians as a bit of surprise to win the AL Central on the heels of a terrific pitching staff and one of the game’s most underrated managers.
AL East: Boston 1, Toronto 2, Tampa Bay 3, New York 4, Baltimore 5
The Red Sox acquisition of David Price from the Blue Jays puts them over the top in the division race. They also have two of the game’s best young players in Mookie Betts (my AL MVP runner-up) and Xander Bogaerts. They’re one of the league’s most inconsistent teams on a year-to-year basis, but it feels like they’re primed for a big season. Toronto still has their dominant hitters, particularly Bautista, Donaldson and Encarnacion, but Marcus Stroman and 41-year-old R.A. Dickey is a pretty weak one-two pitching duo. The Rays have really faded in recent years and the Yankees are flooded with veteran players in their 30s (or 40s). Baltimore remains a wild-card and could challenge for the major league lead in home runs, but a weak starting rotation will likely keep them in the AL East cellar.
AL Wild-Cards: Kansas City, Houston
NL West: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Arizona, San Diego, Colorado
The Giants-Dodgers rivalry has been fascinating in recent years. It’s the Dodgers who spend, spend, spend, and it’s the Giants who win, win, win. I expect that trend to continue this season, although it was actually the Giants who spent a boatload for starting pitching last offseason. The Dodgers have the best pitcher on the planet and the game’s top young prospect in shortstop Corey Seager, but question marks like Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson give the edge to Bochy’s Giants. In Arizona, expectations are high after the monster Zack Greinke signing, but other than Paul Goldschmidt, nobody on the roster is particularly intimidating.
NL Central: Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee
Is this the year? Finally? It’s been 108 seasons, and counting, since the Cubs brought home a world championship, and their 4-1 odds to claim the 2016 title are monumental. I’m picking them to win the division – too much young talent – but it’ll probably be close. The Pirates have been one of the league’s perennial wild-card teams for the last few seasons, a trend I expect to continue in 2016. The Cardinals are a big question mark, winning 100 games in 2015, but players like Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty need to become stars for St. Louis to reach the postseason for the sixth straight season.
NL East: New York, Washington, Miami, Philadelphia, Atlanta
This division is a two-team race between last year’s pennant-winning Mets and the annual underachieving Nationals. I’m picking the Mets simply because their rotation is so dominant. From Harvey to Syndergaard to de Grom, the Mets have all the necessary tools to reach the World Series for a second straight season. The Nationals have the best player in the game in Bryce Harper, a 23-year-old five-tool player who is the favorite, on paper, to win the MVP award. Their rotation is almost as intimidating as the Mets, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez as their one-two-three punch. If there’s one team with a chance to surprise some people this year, it’s Miami, led by power hitter Giancarlo Stanton, 23-year-old ace pitcher Jose Fernandez and last year’s batting champion Dee Gordon.
NL Wild-Cards: Pittsburgh, Washington
World Series: I promise I’m not just saying this because it’s an even year, but I have the San Francisco Giants winning the World Series. This would be their fourth title in the last seven seasons and would establish them as the greatest non-Yankees dynasty in baseball history. In the American League, I picked the Cleveland Indians to ride their deep pitching rotation to an AL pennant, their first since the 1995 season.
Awards:
AL MVP: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Correa might already be the best shortstop in the major leagues. Just 21 years old, he clubbed 22 home runs and finished first in last year’s Rookie of the Year voting despite playing in just 99 games. In his first full season, I’m picking him to join Cal Ripken Jr. among shortstops who have won the ROY and MVP in consecutive seasons. The Astros will be right in the middle of the playoff race, and Correa easily has 35-home run, 110-RBI potential.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
Most would call Mike Trout the best player in baseball. I think Bryce Harper is already worthy of this distinction. In 2015, he terrorized the National League, finishing first in runs, home runs, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS+, while becoming the youngest unanimous MVP in history. So what can he do for an encore? Personally, I believe Harper will hit 50 home runs, drive in 125, collect well over 100 walks and bat about .320. He hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling, which is almost unlimited.
AL Cy Young: Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Over the last few seasons, there have been a number of Cy Young winners to come out of nowhere, like Corey Kluber in 2014 and both Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel in 2015. I’m going out on a limb with this prediction and saying that Angels starter Garrett Richards takes a huge step forward to become the league’s best pitcher. Richards, 28, posted a 15-12 record with a 3.65 ERA in 2015, and would likely need around 18-19 wins with an ERA under 2.50 to have any chance at earning the game’s most prestigious pitching award. A signature moment, such as a no-hitter in a playoff hunt, would really help his chances too.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Angels
If I overthought it for the American League Cy Young, I’m going to underthink the National League Cy Young award. Clayton Kershaw is the game’s best pitcher and has been for the last half-decade. He’s won three Cy Youngs, plus a second and third-place finish, and he’s just 28 years old. In 2015, he became the first pitcher in the post-steroid era to top 300 strikeouts in a season.
AL Rookie of the Year: Joey Gallo, OF, Texas Rangers
The Rangers have to find a spot for Joey Gallo to play regularly, but if he can hit like many expect, this is a good problem for the team to have. Gallo, 22, debuted in 2015, clubbing six home runs in 108 at-bats. He’s still technically a rookie, and my expectations are 25 home runs and 85 RBIs if he stays healthy for the 2016 campaign.
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
The number one prospect in all of baseball by ESPN, MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, Corey Seager briefly debuted late in the 2015 season at age age of 21. He posted a ridiculous .337/.425/.561 stat line in 27 games. Now the full-time starter for the Dodgers, Seager feels like the obvious and safe choice to break out in 2016. If he turns into his brother Kyle, he’ll be a very good major league starter, but his ceiling is much, much higher.
AL Comeback: Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
One of the game’s best pitchers from 2012 to 2014, Yu Darvish missed all of 2015 while recovering from the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Now 28 and fully healthy, Darvish just needs to return to the near-elite form he displayed during his first three seasons to win one of baseball’s forgotten awards.
NL Comeback: Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
Jose Fernandez burst onto the scene in 2013, winning Rookie of the Year honors as one of the league’s best pitchers. But, like Darvish, he underwent Tommy John surgery, and his recovery has been slower than expected. In fact, Fernandez has made just 19 starts over the last two seasons. Now healthy, Fernandez will likely be on a strict innings limit in 2016, but if he can pitch 80 percent as well as he did as a rookie, he’ll join Darvish as a likely award winner.
AL Manager: Terry Francona, Cleveland Indians
One of the game’s more effective managers over the last decade, Terry Francona anchors a team that has quietly been mentioned among the league’s sleepers. The Indians’ projected pitching rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Cody Anderson and Josh Timlin is one of the best and most underrated in the game. If the Indians can emerge as AL Central winners in a division that includes last year’s world champion Kansas City Royals, Francona should be able to take home his second Manager of the Year award.
NL Manager: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
Arguably the best manager in the game, Bochy has a knack for turning average teams into good teams and good teams into great teams. He’s led the Giants to a world championship three times in the last six seasons, with a core that has included only one key member on all three teams (catcher Buster Posey). This season, the Giants have the potential for one of the NL’s deepest rotations, with former World Series hero Madison Bumgarner, free-agent acquisitions Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija and veteran Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Holding off the Dodgers and their never-ending payroll will be the key, especially around the trade deadline.
