As we navigate the ever-changing landscape of the NFL, the Hall of Fame candidacy of 20 active players sparks heated discussions. We know Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes will one day make it to Canton, Ohio. Same for the Kelce brothers. But what about Josh Allen? Or Justin Tucker?
We’re delving into the careers of these borderline players, examining their achievements, stats, and impact on the game. These individuals find themselves at a crucial juncture, balancing on the edge of football immortality. I’ll look at accolades like All-Pro selections, Pro Bowl awards, and even PFF grades, but also balance the reputation and positional value of the player.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Stats: 22,703 yards, 167 TD, 78 INT, 92.2 passer rating; 3,611 rushing yards, 53 TD
Accolades: 2x Pro Bowl
Living in Patrick Mahomes’ shadow may be a scenario Josh Allen will never escape, but #17 is the modern day John Elway – the NFL’s ultimate weapon capable of leaping over buildings in a single bound. Allen has averaged 43 total touchdowns since 2020, and he’s already the second-leading touchdown scorer among QBs in NFL history, trailing only Cam Newton. Will that style of play last? Probably not. But so far, Allen does seem to defy perceived injury, having missed zero games in the last five seasons.
He’s his team’s passing and running game, and when the Bills fall short in the playoffs, that means Allen gets the criticism. A regular season MVP would boost Allen’s chances significantly, and a Super Bowl championship would all but lock it in. Even if Allen becomes this generation’s Warren Moon or Dan Fouts – an immense talent with zero rings (or even appearances), it’s still tough to see him missing the Hall.
The Verdict: 80% Hall of Fame chance
Calais Campbell, EDGE, Atlanta Falcons
Stats: 105.5 sacks, 17 FF, 13 FR, 3 INT, 254 QB hits, 175 TFLs, 865 tackles
Accolades: 6x Pro Bowl, 1 First-Team All-Pro, HOF 2010s All-Decade Team
A grizzly veteran at this point, Calais Campbell just finished his 16th NFL season as the league’s oldest defensive player (37) – and he’s still a capable edge rusher who can set the edge against the run. Campbell cleared the 100-sack milestone and if he comes back in 2024, he could move into second place in career QB hits (a stat tracked since 2006).
Playing a five-tech role for a substantial portion of his career limited Campbell’s sacks, but he’s still been productive everywhere he goes, even having his best year at age 31 for Jacksonville in 2017. Campbell’s durability will also work in his favor; just 14 defensive players in league history have started more than his 225 games.
The Verdict: 50%
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stats: 762 receptions, 11,680 yards, 94 TD
Accolades: 5 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl ring
Consider Mike Evans to be a more TD-infused version of Frank Gore. Never the best in the league – and rarely top five – Evans is always a top 10 receiver. He’s the only player in NFL history with 10 consecutive seasons of 1,000 yards to start his career, and he needs just one more to tie Jerry Rice for the longest streak ever. And with just six touchdown catches in 2024, Evans will become the 11th player to top 100 in a career.
The 100 TD club is a pretty incredible list. There’s Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, T.O., and a bunch of legendary Hall of Famers (or soon-to-be Hall of Famers like Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Gates). Evans has shown no signs of slowing down and he’s essentially QB-proof, putting up strong numbers with Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and even Josh McCown/Mike Glennon. No matter who the quarterback, he’s going to give you strong numbers, and that will lead to some pretty gaudy career stats when he hangs it up.
The Verdict: 65%
Cameron Heyward, DE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Stats: 80.5 sacks, 8 FF, 7 FR, 2 INT, 179 QB hits, 121 TFLs, 647 tackles
Accolades: 6 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro
Interior defensive lineman don’t usually make the Hall of Fame, especially if they do the dirty work like two-gapping and stopping the run, all of which Cameron Heyward excels at on a regular basis.
Heyward has racked up six Pro Bowls and an impressive amount of First-Team All-Pro awards plus three double-digit sack campaigns. He stalled in 2023, missing six games due to injury and registering just two sacks. He needs another push to make his case for Canton; otherwise, he’s going to end in the ‘not quite’ group with Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, and Fletcher Cox.
The Verdict: 35%
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
Stats: 928 receptions, 12,355 yards, 78 TD
Accolades: 5 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro
Wide receivers dominate in today’s era as much as any position. At the conclusion of the 2000 season, there were 17 receivers with 10,000 receiving yards. Now? There are 50 (and Stefon Diggs is one five-yard catch away from making it 51). So it’s harder than ever for a receiver to stand out, and Hopkins will be competing against Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams – and don’t forget that Torry Holt, Steve Smith, and Reggie Wayne still haven’t made it yet.
Other than the last few years of Deshaun Watson, Hopkins has never been gifted with an elite quarterback, so his six-year peak average of 103/1,333/9 from 2015-2020 is made even more impressive. Three First-Team AP All-Pro selections is Hopkins’ most impressive HOF achievement; that’s as many as Megatron or Marvin Harrison and more than Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, or Steve Smith.
Ultimately, it will come down to how Nuk ages. He appeared to be well on the decline after posting consecutive sub-750 yard seasons at ages 29 and 30, but he rebounded with a solid campaign for Tennessee in 2023. Clearing the 1,000 catch mark would be a bonus for Hopkins, and if he manages to reach 100 touchdowns, that would be a huge plus.
The Verdict: 60%
Lane Johnson, OT, Philadelphia Eagles
Accolades: 5 Pro Bowls, 2x First-Team All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl ring
It’s largely a name recognition game for offensive linemen. How often do any of us really break down game film to see how dominant Lane Johnson (or Laremy Tunsil or David Bakhtiari or any of the offensive lineman) is? That’s why Pro Bowl selections for offensive linemen really matter, as do All-Pro selections and PFF grades and Super Bowl rings.
Johnson is the rare right tackle who receives Pro Bowl selections. He has five in his career, plus two seasons as a First-Team All-Pro, two more as a Second-Team All-Pro, a ring, another Super Bowl appearance, an absurd Combine performance that highlighted his dominance, and most importantly – a reputation as arguably the most athletic right tackle of this generation.
Do people remember the not one but two suspensions for PEDs? Honestly, not really. They just see his dominance as a run blocker, the success of every skill position player the Eagles have, and most importantly, the absurd with/without Lane Johnson stats for the Eagles’ offense. That should be enough to get him in.
The Verdict: 55%
Cameron Jordan, EDGE, New Orleans Saints
Stats: 117.5 sacks, 15 FF, 11 FR, 2 INT, 225 QB hits, 153 TFLs, 682 tackles
Accolades: 8 Pro Bowls, 1 First-Team All-Pro
Cameron Jordan’s greatest attributes are unbelievable durability combined with consistently dominant production. In a 13-year NFL career, the former first-round pick has missed exactly two games. He’s posted six double-digit sack seasons and currently ranks 23rd all-time on the official sack leader chart.
So is that enough? Let’s look at some of his contemporaries. Dwight Freeney (125.5 sacks) missed out in his first year of eligibility and just got in this year. Simeon Rice (122 sacks) isn’t in. Neither is Clyde Simmons (121.5) or Robert Mathis (123.0). That doesn’t bode well for Jordan (117.5 sacks).
Here’s another way of looking at it though. Aside from Jordan, there are 140 players in NFL history to have earned eight or more Pro Bowl selections. 109 are in the Hall of Fame. Another 25 are not eligible. That means there are just six HOF eligible players with eight or more Pro Bowl selections who have not yet made it to Canton.
The Verdict: 55%
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Stats: 64.5%, 15,887 passing yards, 7.5 YPA, 125 TD, 45 INT, 98.0 passer rating; 5,258 rushing yards, 6.0 YPC, 29 TD
Accolades: 3 Pro Bowl, 2x First-Team All-Pro, 1 MVP
Has any player ever proven doubters wrong more than Lamar Jackson? Every single team – including Baltimore – passed on him in the 2018 NFL draft. A Hall of Fame general manager said he should switch to wide receiver. And since then, he’s won as many regular season MVP awards as Patrick Mahomes (2).
Jackson is the most dynamic athlete we’ve seen at the quarterback position since Michael Vick – but Jackson is a much more refined passer. He’s completed almost 65 percent of his career passes with a 98.0 passer rating, and he’s 58-19 as a starter through his age-26 season. The playoff failures certainly don’t help, but even if Jackson never makes a Super Bowl, it’s difficult to see any two-time MVP quarterback missing the Hall of Fame.
The Verdict: 80%
Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 34 INT, 12 FF, 8 FR, 19.5 sacks, 1,039 tackles
Accolades: 6 Pro Bowls, 1 First-Team All-Pro
One of the more underrated players in the league, Harrison Smith has dominated in the back end of the Minnesota defense for the last decade. He’s recorded 34 interceptions to go with 19.5 sacks; he’s a half-sack and one interception away from becoming the sixth player in history with 35 INT and 20 sacks. Four of the other five are in the Hall of Fame.
Safety is a notoriously difficult position for a player to be enshrined. John Lynch took several tries to be inducted. Brian Dawkins didn’t make it in year one. Barring a ring or a Defensive Player of the Year award, it’s going to be difficult for Smith to stand out over his competitors.
The Verdict: 25%
Tyrann Mathieu, S, New Orleans Saints
Stats: 33 INT, 5 FF, 7 FR, 11.0 sacks, 776 tackles
Accolades: 3 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl ring, HOF 2010s All-Decade Team
Besides having a really cool nickname, The Honey Badger is a dynamo football player. He’s an undersized defensive back with the versatility to play anywhere – wide cornerback, slot corner, and both safety positions.
Since being drafted, Mathieu is tied first among all defensive players with 33 interceptions. He’s returned four for touchdowns and added seven fumble recoveries, giving him 40 takeaways in 11 seasons. He’s helped lead three different teams to the playoffs, winning a ring with the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs.
Three First-Team All-Pros is usually a pretty good indicator of a future Hall of Famer. If he gets a fourth at any point, he’s close to a lock.
The Verdict: 50%
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 460 receptions, 6,274 yards, 37 TD
Accolades: 5 Pro Bowls, 2x First-Team All-Pro
A true tight end, George Kittle is a game-changing weapon in the passing game but also an elite inline blocker. And that makes him a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s positionless brand of football, where Kittle can line up wide, in the slot, and as a traditional tight end.
Kittle has struggled to stay healthy throughout his seven-year career, but he’s still put up three 1,000-yard campaigns. His 1,377 yards in 2018 established a new positional record, breaking the mark of 1.327 by Rob Gronkowski in 2011 (since broken by Travis Kelce’s 1,416 in 2020).
Kittle is fresh off his third First-Team All-Pro campaign, so he’s still going strong. By the time he’s finished his career, he’ll likely be viewed as a top 10 tight end of all-time.
The Verdict: 65%
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Stats: 810 receptions, 9,995 yards, 67 TD
Accolades: 3 Pro Bowls, 1 First-Team All-Pro
There are a handful of dominant receivers in the NFL, but it’s Stefon Diggs who leads the league in receptions (445) over the last four seasons. Even with his second-half decline in 2023, Diggs still put up a 107/1,183/8 statline, giving him his fifth 100-catch season – more than every player to ever play the game except for Antonio Brown and Brandon Marshall.
Diggs doesn’t have a ring or even a Super Bowl appearance, but he does have a legendary playoff moment – his game-winning catch in the Minneapolis Miracle win is one of the more iconic plays in postseason history. If he can put together a few more strong seasons, he’s going to warrant strong consideration.
The Verdict: 30%
Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 8 INT, 11 FF, 6 FR, 9.0 sacks, 766 tackles
Accolades: 3 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro
Fred Warner is the best off-ball linebacker in the game, a physical specimen with elite speed capable of covering a wide receiver on a seam route in Cover 3 (go put on the tape against Dallas in the 2022 playoffs). The problem is he’s an off-ball linebacker in a league that traditionally undervalues them.
Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher got in the Hall of Fame, but that was almost a different era. Patrick Willis, he of seven Pro Bowls and five First-Team All-Pro selections, can’t get in yet. Zach Thomas finally made it in 2023 after a decade of waiting. You can’t look at the raw stats for Warner; his best bet is to keep up racking those All-Pros and playing deep in the postseason.
The Verdict: 60%
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens
Stats: 395 field goals, 90.2% career pct, 1,649 points scored
Accolades: 7 Pro Bowls, 5x First-Team All-Pro, 1 Super Bowl ring
There are just two true kickers in the Pro Football Hall of Fame – Jan Stenerud and Morten Andersen. Adam Vinatieri has a good chance to become the third – and Justin Tucker should be the fourth. By all metrics we use to evaluate kickers, Tucker is the greatest kicker to ever play the game.
Tucker is a seven-time Pro Bowler, five-time First-Team AP All-Pro, Super Bowl champion, and owner of the longest kick in NFL history – a come-from-behind 66-yard walkoff field goal. He’s kicked 58 field goals of 50 more yards, converting them at an impressive 68% clip. He won a Super Bowl. And he’s played just 12 seasons. Kickers routinely play into their 40s. Expect more great things from Tucker.
The Verdict: 85%
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 6,185 rushing yards, 4.8 YPC, 52 TD; 509 receptions, 4,320 receiving yards, 29 TD; 10,505 scrimmage yards, 81 total TD
Accolades: 3 Pro Bowls, 2x First-Team All-Pro
90% of running backs are replaceable. Maybe 95%. Christian McCaffrey is not one of those; in fact, it could be argued he’s the best player on a San Francisco offense that has been the best in football the past two years. CMC is Marshall Faulk reincarnated. He could line up at slot receiver ever play and still be dynamic.
McCaffrey has dealt with his fair share of injuries, but his peak years stand up against anyone. He’s led the league in scrimmage yards and total touchdowns twice each. He owns the positional record for receptions (116) in a season and he’s the only running back with multiple 100-catch years. He’s one of just three players ever with a 1,000/1,000 season.
Like all running backs, it will come down to how he ages. A Super Bowl ring will help. Another rushing title would as well. Otherwise his career will look too much like LeSean McCoy’s or Matt Forte’s – great players who won’t make Canton.
The Verdict: 35%
Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs
Stats: 75.5 sacks, 12 FF, 3 FR, 2 INT, 175 QB hits, 78 TFLs, 273 tackles
Accolades: 5 Pro Bowls, 2x First-Team All-Pro, 3 Super Bowl rings
When we look back on the Kansas City Chiefs’ imminent dynasty, we’ll remember Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce on offense and Andy Reid as the coach. But on defense? Chris Jones is going to go down as the best defensive player of a dynasty and that’s going to earn him strong Hall of Fame consideration.
Jones has 75.5 sacks in eight seasons, doing so largely from an interior defensive lineman role. Kansas City does frequently rotate him to the edge on passing downs, but that versatility should only add to his accomplishments. Jones is a five-time Pro Bowler, two-time First-Team All-Pro, and he’s playing his best ball as he approaches 30 years old.
The Verdict: 65%
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Stats: 63.2%, 56,047 passing yards, 7.3 YPA, 357 TD, 180 INT, 91.0 passer rating
Accolades: 2 Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl ring, 1 Comeback Player of Year
The film guys love Matthew Stafford. He’s a magician with the ball, capable of making any throw on the field. There’s a reason Sean McVay traded away Jared Goff and two ones to acquire Stafford – and then Stafford went out and threw 40 touchdowns and won the Super Bowl in his first year in Los Angeles.
The counting stats are impressive. Stafford is currently 11th all-time in passing yards and TD passes. His rate stats aren’t as efficient; his 91.0 passer rating is a lower career number than Ryan Tannehill or Derek Carr, and neither of those two will have a Canton argument. Years of losing in Detroit may not have been Stafford’s fault, but still, a below .500 winning percentage isn’t helping his case.
Stafford’s best bet is gaudy passing numbers (70,000 passing yards and 400 TDs would certainly help) or another ring.
The Verdict: 25%
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Stats: 904 receptions, 10,530 yards, 59 TD
Accolades: 6 Pro Bowls
You probably don’t think about Keenan Allen as a Hall of Fame player. But how about this? After last year’s 108 catch season, he’s posted five 100 catch seasons. In the history of the NFL, only Antonio Brown and Brandon Marshall have had more. Assuming Allen gets another 96 catches in his career, he’s going to become just the 15th player with 1,000 career receptions. If he can come up with 196 more, he will become the seventh player to reach 1,100. And he’s coming off arguably his best year as a pro, so I’d be more comfortable betting for Allen as opposed to against.
That doesn’t guarantee enshrinement in Canton. As mentioned in the DeAndre Hopkins section, there are more Hall of Fame caliber receivers than ever before. And don’t forget about players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb, who are well on their way. But with a QB like Justin Herbert, Allen is going to finish with some eye-popping numbers.
The Verdict: 30%
Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
Stats: 19 INT, 4 FF, 5 FR, 4 TD, 512 tackles
Accolades: 4 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro
Six seasons into his career, Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best defensive ballhawks in the league. He’s led the NFL in interceptions, returned four picks for touchdowns, and been a First-Team All-Pro on three occasions.
That’s as many AP1s as Paul Krause (the NFL’s all-time leader in interceptions) or Earl Thomas (the heart and soul of the Legion of Boom). If Fitzpatrick keeps it up, he’s well on his way to the Hall of Fame.
The Verdict: 50%
Quenton Nelson, G, Indianapolis Colts
Accolades: 6 Pro Bowls, 3x First-Team All-Pro
Guards have a notoriously difficult time getting into Canton, Ohio. Ruben Brown was a nine-time Pro Bowler and still hasn’t made it. Same with Walt Sweeney. Steve Wisniewski has eight and can’t get in. So that means Quenton Nelson needs to keep putting together dominant seasons to make it.
Nelson’s play has slipped off as of late. His PFF grades per year:
2018: 3rd of 86
2019: 2nd of 90
2020: 3rd of 93
2021: 26th of 88
2022: 20th of 84
2023: 16th of 84
PFF isn’t everything, and Nelson has been rewarded with six Pro Bowls and three First-Team AP All-Pro selections in six years; he’s just the 17th player in the Super Bowl era with six Pro Bowls in his first six seasons. A few more years of recognition and he’s done enough for Canton.
The Verdict: 50%
