There’s no denying that the 2019 Philadelphia Phillies fell short of expectations. After the organization spent close to half a billion dollars in the offseason, it’s not unreasonable to think a postseason finish was assumed. Instead, a second straight late-season skid tumbled the Phillies down the standings, and they finished with their eighth straight non-winning season.
I’ll look at all the starting players in this article, grading the primary starting pitchers and every relief pitcher who appeared in at least 30 games or 30 innings pitched. I did factor in expectations and salary when assigning a grade; those being paid more money are logically expected to produce greater results.
Click here to read the first part on the position players.
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola
Statistics: 12-7, 3.87 ERA, 202.1 IP, 176 H, 27 HR, 229:80 K:BB, 4.03 FIP, 1.265 WHIP, 116 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 3.7 WAR, 2.0 WAA
Aaron Nola didn’t duplicate his 2018 Cy Young-caliber season in 2019, but it’s difficult to double up on a year that featured a 2.37 ERA and a ridiculous 10.5 WAR. Still, if ‘bad Nola’ consists of a league-best 34 games started and 852 batters faced, a 3.87 ERA that was still 16 percent above league average when factoring in park conditions, and a career-best 10.2 K/9, then Nola is a pretty good pitcher, and probably still a top 10 one in the major leagues at that.
Nola did struggle with his control all year – his walks increased from 2.5 BB/9 last year to 3.6 BB/9 this year – and he was hit hard with home runs, surrendering 10 more than 2018. Nola walked at least three batters in half of his 34 starts, which is just too much for an ace of a playoff contending team. His pitch metrics show he was throwing even harder than the previous year, seeing a slight increase in his fastball speed from 92.4 to 92.9. In fact, his fastball/curveball/changeup all saw an increase in velocity, so there’s no reason to think he was battling arm soreness of any sorts.
Even after starting the year with a 5.68 ERA in his April starts, Nola remained remarkably consistent all season. He allowed a .238 batting average and .707 OPS in the first half of the year and a .228 batting average and .709 OPS after the All-Star break.
The most alarming aspect of Nola’s season was his sudden inability to pitch on the road. Last year, he had a 2.34 home ERA/.594 OPS allowed at home and a 2.41 road ERA/.543 OPS allowed on the road. This year, he posted a 2.91 home ERA/.658 OPS allowed at home and a 5.19 road ERA/.777 OPS allowed on the road. It’s odd that Nola seemed to have mastered a notorious pitchers ballpark like the one he pitches in half the time, yet struggled in often easier road ballparks. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher: Jake Arrieta
Statistics: 8-8, 4.64 ERA, 135.2 IP, 149 H, 21 HR, 110:51 K:BB, 4.89 FIP, 1.474 WHIP, 97 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.9 WAR, -0.2 WAA
It’s impossible to evaluate Jake Arrieta’s mediocre production without looking at the fact that the Phillies paid him $25 million this year – and still owe him another $20 million in 2020. He’s a complete shell of the Cy Young award-winning pitcher from just four years ago or even the All-Star from three years ago.
Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA was the highest he’s allowed since the days when he was still a middling pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. After starting the year with five solid starts, he pitched to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and .302 opponents’ batting average allowed over his final 19 starts before being shut down for the year due to bone spurs in his elbow. Just one of his final 10 starts was a quality start, and he didn’t make it past the sixth inning in his final seven.
For a Phillies team that had serious playoff aspirations heading into 2019, the organization needs more from Arrieta. Grade: D
Starting Pitcher: Zach Eflin
Statistics: 10-13, 4.13 ERA, 163.1 IP, 172 H, 28 HR, 129:48 K:BB, 4.85 FIP, 1.347 WHIP, 109 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 1.5 WAR, 0.1 WAA
Until the All-Star break, Zach Eflin was probably the Phillies’ best starting pitcher. He threw a complete game win against Miami on April 28, then a four-hit shutout with no walks two starts later. Fourteen starts into the year, Eflin had a 2.83 ERA and had allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but two of his outings.
Eflin stalled in the summer, briefly losing his spot in the rotation after a start in which he allowed 10 runs (six earned) against the Atlanta Braves. That came during a span in which Eflin pitched to the tune of a 10.46 ERA and .382 opponents’ batting average allowed over six starts and 26.2 innings pitched. Eflin was reinserted into the rotation in mid-August, and as quietly effective down the stretch run. He posted a 3.20 ERA and .254 opponents batting average allowed in his final eight starts.
For the year, Eflin’s numbers come out respectable enough. His 4.13 ERA in primarily a hitters’ ballpark give him an adjusted ERA nine percent better than the league average. Due to a low strikeout rate, his FIP was just 4.85. Still, Eflin isn’t the reason the Phillies missed the playoffs; in fact, he kept them in the hunt for longer than they should have been. Grade: B-
Starting Pitcher: Vince Velasquez
Statistics: 7-8, 4.91 ERA, 117.1 IP, 120 H, 26 HR, 130:43 K:BB, 5.21 FIP, 1.389 WHIP, 92 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.1 WAR, -0.8 WAA
The Phillies keep trying to make the Vinny Velasquez thing work, and there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest it ever will happen. Velasquez is a great athlete – he played left field and threw a runner out at the plate in a game this year. He’s a .224 career hitter, which is spectacular for a pitcher. And last year, he threw out a hitter at first base with his non-throwing arm.
The problem though is that he’s just not a very good pitcher. Velasquez spent 2019 shuffling between the starting rotation and the bullpen. As a reliever, he allowed a 4.82 ERA. As a starter, he allowed a 4.92 ERA. His FIP for the year – a number that measures his expected ERA based on factors he can control like walks and strikeouts – was 5.21. Realistically, Velasquez is better suited as a last-resort arm for the bullpen, not a starter soaking up 23 starts. Grade: D
Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly
Statistics: 3-2, 4.45 ERA, 62.2 IP, 62 H, 13 HR, 68:21 K:BB, 4.79 FIP, 1.324 WHIP, 101 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.5 WAR, 0.0 WAA
Acquiring Drew Smyly midseason to be a starter is more of a panic move than anything else. That being said, the fact that Smyly made 12 starts and posted a 4.45 ERA, which is pretty much a league average mark, is fairly respectable. Smyly won’t likely have a spot on the 2020 team but he filled his role as a waiver-wire acquisition starter. Grade: C
Starting Pitcher: Jason Vargas
Statistics: 1-4, 5.37 ERA, 55.1 IP, 60 H, 7 HR, 43:24 K:BB, 4.88 FIP, 1.518 WHIP, 84 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.4 WAR, -0.8 WAA
Drew Smyly was a midseason waiver wire acquisition, but the Phillies actually traded for Jason Vargas as their big ticket trade deadline prize. Vargas allowed multiple runs in all 11 starts he made with his new team and didn’t pick up his first pitching win until September 21. His production wasn’t exactly what the Phillies had in mind when they acquired him. Grade: D-
Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta
Statistics: 4-6, 5.38 ERA, 93.2 IP, 103 H, 20 HR, 89:39 K:BB, 5.47 FIP, 1.516 WHIP, 84 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.5 WAR, -1.3 WAA
One of the worst organizational decisions in recent years came when the Phillies’ front office deemed Nick Pivetta worthy enough to be the No. 2 starter on a team with serious playoff aspirations. Pivetta has teased the team with his potential for three years, offering a mid-90s fastball and a good slider. The problem is he hasn’t been good.
After fashioning an 8.35 ERA over his first four starts of the year, the Phillies sent Pivetta down to Triple-A. He came back in late May and continued to flash his potential, at one point twirling a six-hitter in a complete game victory and striking out 15 batters to no walks allowed over a span of two starts. By mid-July, Pivetta was back in the ‘pen, and he put up a 4.38 ERA in 17 relief appearances, which frankly isn’t good enough to secure him any sort of a long-term spot on the roster at all. Grade: D-
Starting Pitcher: Jerad Eickhoff
Statistics: 3-4, 5.71 ERA, 58.1 IP, 58 H, 18 HR,51:18 K:BB, 6.51 FIP, 1.303 WHIP,79 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.1 WAR, -0.6 WAA
There are very few major league starters who make a career out of it despite not averaging even 90 MPH on their fastball. Jerad Eickhoff is trying to prove he can do it, but the historical odds are stacked against him.
Eickhoff started 2019 rehabbing from numerous injuries, including numbness to his fingers, and pitched to just a 1.50 ERA over his first five appearances (four starts), spanning 30 innings. From there on out, he allowed an absurd 10.16 ERA and .842 slugging percentage over his final 28.1 innings and was demoted to the minor leagues. Eickhoff’s 2.8 HR/9 rate was the worst in the National League among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. Grade: F
Relief Pitcher: Hector Neris
Statistics: 3-6, 2.93 ERA, 67.2 IP, 45 H, 10 HR, 89:24 K:BB, 3.83 FIP, 1.020 WHIP, 154 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 1.8 WAR, 0.9 WAA
Hector Neris’ 2019 campaign was a lot more like his 2016 and 2017 seasons than his awful 2018 year. For a Phillies bullpen that was decimated by injuries (David Robertson/Pat Neshek/Seranthony Dominguez/Tommy Hunter), Neris played an important role as the closer. He saved 28 of 34 games, struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings, and posted the best WHIP of his career (1.020). Grade: B
Relief Pitcher: Jose Alvarez
Statistics: 3-4, 3.36 ERA, 59 IP, 66 H, 8 HR, 51:18 K:BB, 4.21 FIP, 1.424 WHIP, 134 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.8 WAR, 0.4 WAA
The Phillies traded Luis Garcia for Jose Alvarez this past offseason, and it worked pretty well. Alvarez was the team’s top left-handed option out of the bullpen, twirling 59 innings with a solid 2.83 K:BB ratio and a 3.36 ERA. Righties hit him pretty hard (.328/.385/.475) but he held lefties to a .236/.277/.382 statline, for an OPS 202 points lower. Grade: B
Relief Pitcher: Ranger Suarez
Statistics: 6-1, 3.14 ERA, 48.2 IP, 52 H, 6 HR, 42:12 K:BB, 3.89 FIP, 1.315 WHIP, 144 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.9 WAR, 0.5 WAA
For a relief pitcher who posted a 5.40 ERA in just 15 innings as a rookie in 2018, Ranger Suarez was a pleasant surprise this year. He led the team’s bullpen in wins (6). His 3.14 ERA was 44 percent above the league average given the park conditions. Suarez was even better against lefties than Alvarez (.569 OPS allowed) and pitched his best as the season went on, allowing just one total earned run in his final 15 innings pitched. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher: Juan Nicasio
Statistics: 2-3, 4.75 ERA, 47.1 IP, 57 H, 4 HR, 45:21 K:BB, 3.87 FIP, 1.648 WHIP, 95 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.1 WAR, -0.4 WAA
Last year, Juan Nicasio fashioned a ridiculous 10.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year? His 2.14 K:BB ratio was his worst since 2015. Nicasio’s 4.75 ERA and 95 ERA+ were vastly mediocre numbers and Nicasio pitched equally against righties and lefties, meaning he wasn’t particularly impressive against either. Grade: C-
Relief Pitcher: Adam Morgan
Statistics: 3-3, 3.94 ERA, 29.2 IP, 20 H, 4 HR, 29:10 K:BB, 4.33 FIP, 1.011 WHIP, 115 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 0.3 WAR, 0.1 WAA
This is three years in a row Adam Morgan made at least 35 relief appearances with an above-average ERA. His 115 ERA+ was actually the best of his career, and his 6.1 H/9 rate was by far his lowest mark ever. Morgan was another good left-handed arm in the bullpen, and he was ridiculously effective against lefties (.454 OPS allowed). Grade: B-
Starting/Relief Pitcher: Cole Irvin
Statistics: 2-1, 5.83 ERA, 41.2 IP, 45 H, 7 HR, 31:13 K:BB, 5.06 FIP, 1.392 WHIP, 77 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.4 WAR, -0.7 WAA
It’s hard to believe the Phillies gave as many starts as they did to Cole Irvin, especially considering his fastball tops out at about 87 miles per hour. After throwing seven strong innings in his big league debut on May 12, he was hit hard to a 10.31 ERA and 1.092 OPS allowed over his next 18.1 innings pitched. Irvin spent some time in the minor leagues and actually pitched fairly well down the stretch – a 2.76 ERA over his last 10 outings and a 0.73 ERA over his last eight outings. Lefties blasted him all year, hitting .365 against him, so his best bet may be to serve as almost a right-handed specialist out of the bullpen. If that exists. Grade: D
Relief Pitcher: Edgar Garcia
Statistics: 2-0, 5.77 ERA, 39 IP, 38 H, 11 HR, 45:26 K:BB, 6.57 FIP, 1.641 WHIP, 78 ERA+
Sabermetrics: -0.1 WAR, -0.5 WAA
As a rookie in 2019, Edgar Garcia was very wild (6.0 BB/9), gave up a ton of home runs (2.5 HR/9), and allowed even a higher FIP (6.57) than his dreadful ERA (5.77). When Garcia faced hitters #2 through #4 in the lineup, they slugged 1.044 against him. Grade: F
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