MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
This was a season-long race between the 23-year-old first-year starter with the cannon arm and the 40-year-old walk-in Hall of Famer having arguably his best year. But while Drew Brees faded down the stretch, uncharacteristically averaging just 206 passing yards over his final five games, Mahomes didn’t let up.
Mahomes threw multiple touchdowns in every game this year except for two. He tossed four touchdowns on seven occasions. He’s the second quarterback ever to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in the same season, and he led the NFL in QBR (82.0) and ANY/A (8.89), which is essentially a stat that includes passer rating and sacks. Mahomes operated the Kansas City offense to near-perfection. They scored 26 points in every contest this season. Even in their four losses, Mahomes still combined for 15 touchdown passes and a 111.8 passer rating.
You could certainly make a strong argument for Brees still. He led the NFL in passer rating (115.7), set a single-season record for completion percentage (74.4), and posted a phenomenal 32:5 TD:INT ratio. Perhaps the biggest argument for Mahomes – other than the sizable difference in touchdown passes and his lead in ANY/A – is the quality of the defense he had. The Saints finished 14th in both points allowed and yards allowed, a surprisingly impressive finish for a typical Sean Payton-coached team.
Meanwhile, Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs finished 24th in points allowed and 31st in yards. Twelve times they allowed at least 20 points. Seven times they allowed at least 23 points and still won the game. They tied the 2011 Green Bay Packers by becoming the first team ever to win three games in which they allowed at least 475 total yards. Without Mahomes, this Chiefs squad doesn’t resemble a 12-win team or even a playoff contender. I won’t quibble too much with someone taking Brees, but I give the slight edge to Brees.
Offensive Player of Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
The Offensive Player of the Year award has never quite made sense to me. MVP awards only go to quarterbacks (unless a running back rushes for 2,000 yards or scores 30 touchdowns), so what’s the point of giving essentially the same award (MVP/OPOY) to the same QB? At this point, many voters will look for the best non-QB, and I’ll abide by that here. The common consensus is that Todd Gurley should win the league’s Offensive Player of the Year award, but let’s take a look at the breakdown between the NFL’s top players on the offensive side of the ball.
| Name | Total Yards | Total TD | Fumbles |
| Saquon Barkley | 2028 | 15 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2001 | 9 | 6 |
| Todd Gurley | 1831 | 21 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1965 | 13 | 4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1592 | 18 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1689 | 8 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1565 | 11 | 2 |
This is an inexact way of looking at the top candidates, and there are certainly more wide receivers I could have chosen to include – Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, and Adam Thielen come to mind. While both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins had phenomenal seasons, neither wins my OPOY award, and the same goes for Alvin Kamara, a fantastic three-down running back who is probably at best the third-most important piece of his team’s offense behind Brees and Thomas.
That narrows it down to four players, all of whom put up fantastic numbers. There’s no easy way to eliminate one of them. While Gurley seemed to be the runaway favorite at midseason (17 total touchdowns and 1,390 scrimmage yards through Week 10), he stalled down the stretch. Gurley struggled as a runner in the final two games in which he did play and then missed Weeks 16 and 17. As a result, rookie phenom Saquon Barkley passed Gurley in total yards from scrimmage. Barkley scored 15 touchdowns on a sputtering offense and did so without fumbling one time.
That makes the rookie playmaker my surprise pick to win this award.
It’s popular to criticize Barkley for what he isn’t – a quarterback – but what he actually is is pretty special. He’s just the second player in league history to accumulate 2,000 scrimmage yards and score 15 touchdowns in a season without fumbling (the other was 2000 NFL MVP Marshall Faulk). Barkley rated as PFF’s top running back in terms of overall grade, he averaged a healthy 3.3 yards after contact, and he forced 40 missed tackles. He also caught a ridiculous 91 passes out of the backfield.
When Gurley missed the final two weeks of the season, his newly-signed backup, C.J. Anderson, rushed for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley didn’t miss a game, but if he had, it’s doubtful the Giants would have been quite as effective with Wayne Gallman, a 4.6 plodder who averaged 3.5 yards per carry and fumbled twice in just 65 touches. Barkley likely won’t win the OPOY award, but in a year with no clear-cut non-QB winner, he deserves it.
Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
Realistically, Aaron Donald should earn all 50 votes for this award, and winning would make him just the second player in NFL history (after J.J. Watt) to win Defensive Player of the Year in consecutive seasons. Donald was flat out dominant in 2018 like we’ve never seen before. He registered a league-leading 20.5 sacks, forced four fumbles, recovered two more, and earned the highest single-season grade in Pro Football Focus history (a website that has tracked players since 2006) by a significant margin.
Donald’s 20.5 sacks are tied for the seventh-highest total in league history, and it’s the most ever by a player who lined up primarily at defensive tackle. Even more remarkably, a midseason stat showed that Donald is double-teamed on a league-high 70 percent of all plays. It’s tough to even concoct an argument for any other defensive player, and just five seasons into the league, Donald has joined Watt in the conversation for most disruptive defensive lineman to ever play.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
If I’m picking Barkley to win the league’s Offensive Player of the Year, you can sure bet I’m selecting him as the top overall rookie. A full season of Baker Mayfield might have been enough for the Cleveland quarterback to win this award, but as it stands, we can’t ignore the fact that Barkley suited up for all 16 games while Mayfield didn’t start for a quarter of the year.
Barkley was just the third rookie ever to accumulate 2,000 scrimmage yards, joining Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James. He’s the second player – rookie or veteran – to carry the ball at least 250 times, average 5.0 yards per carry, and also catch 90 passes. The other is all-time great, LaDainian Tomlinson. And Barkley did this on a team with the aging Eli Manning as his quarterback, a signal-caller who rated 35th at his position in PFF’s efficiency grades. He also ran behind an offensive line that ranked 21st in PFF’s run-blocking metrics.
And while we’re on the topic of Barkley, let’s address the year-long Twitter debate: Should the Giants have picked a quarterback like Sam Darnold over Barkley? Probably. Does that mean Barkley isn’t a great player? No; in fact, you could argue what he did is even more remarkable given how much Manning struggled all year. I’ve never been one to advocate taking a running back second overall in the draft, but at least Barkley appears to be a Hall of Fame-type talent and not a plodder like Trent Richardson or Leonard Fournette.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Darius Leonard, MLB, Indianapolis Colts
What a tremendous year for which to pick a Defensive Rookie of the Year – there’s linebackers Darius Leonard and Leighton Vander Esch, safety Derwin James, edge rusher Bradley Chubb, and cornerback Denzel Ward. All would have been viable selections in a typical year, but the award goes to the only one of the five players not selected in the first round.
Leonard didn’t waste time making an immediate impact with the Indianapolis Colts, averaging 13 tackles in his first six games. Leonard was the ninth player in history to finish with the following numbers – seven sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and two interceptions. Of those other eight, the player with the most tackles had 84. Leonard this year had 163, a figure that actually led the entire league. That puts into perspective just how dominant his performance was.
Coach of the Year: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
What Matt Nagy has done this season has been truly spectacular. He’s arguably the brightest young offensive head coach in the league; you may pick Sean McVay, but don’t forget that Nagy beat McVay, 15-6, when their two teams played earlier this season, with the game-clinching touchdown coming on a spectacular trick play touchdown pass to backup offensive tackle Bradley Sowell.
Nagy has coaxed strong numbers out of Mitchell Trubisky (24 TD, 10 INT, 95.4 passer rating), despite Trubisky rating by PFF as the third-worst quarterback this year on a per-play basis. Nagy took over a defense that rated 9th in scoring offense last year and moved them to first in a number of key statistical categories in 2018 – points allowed, turnovers forced, first downs allowed, rushing yards allowed, and rushing touchdowns allowed. The addition of Khalil Mack no doubt did wonders for Nagy, but Nagy got tremendous performances out of a handful of players on his defense.
Former journeyman defensive lineman Akiem Hicks had a breakout Pro Bowl campaign, primarily as a five-technique end. Defensive backs Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson made their first Pro Bowls under Nagy’s watch, and top-10 rookie linebacker Roquan Smith looks like he’ll be an anchor on this defense for years to come. To win this division by a full 3.5 games is nothing short of miraculous, especially considering how dominant Minnesota was last year and that Green Bay got 16 starts from Aaron Rodgers.
Comeback Player of the Year: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
What a year for comeback players. J.J. Watt returned from consecutive injury-plagued seasons, suiting up for all 16 games and playing at an All-Pro level after having seen action in just eight games from 2016-2017. Adrian Peterson was essentially clinging to his NFL life before he rushed for 1,042 yards for the Washington Redskins at age 33. And Deshaun Watson rebounded from a torn ACL as a rookie to play at an MVP level for the Houston Texans. But none of those can compare to what Andrew Luck did.
I’ve been on the record as saying I thought Luck’s career was absolutely finished. The mysterious hush-hush shoulder injury that lingered for an entire year didn’t seem to be improving all offseason. Luck suffered a slew of setbacks and as recently as June of this past calendar year, he was still just throwing a high school football. That’s what makes Luck’s 2018 season all the more remarkable.
He stayed healthy for all 16 games, starting all of them, and even leading the Indianapolis Colts to a surprise 10-6 record and wild card berth. Luck’s velocity was down early, as he even needed to be subbed out for Jacoby Brissett for a Hail Mary attempt in Week 3. Luck rebounded to finish the season with 4,593 yards, 39 touchdown passes, and a career-high 98.7 passer rating. That makes him an easy shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year.
Breakout Player of the Year: George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
This isn’t an official award, but it should be. If I follow generally-accepted NFL rules and don’t nominate those who have already won awards (Patrick Mahomes), George Kittle is likely the obvious pick for this award. A fifth-round pick a year ago, Kittle broke out in 2018 to become arguably the game’s best all-around tight end. Even more remarkably, he did so even after his starting quarterback went down with a torn ACL. Kittle started all 16 games, catching 88 passes and setting a new position record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,377. That’s not bad for a guy who maxed out at 22 catches in a season in college.
More impressively, Kittle isn’t just a great receiving tight end; he rates per PFF as the best run-blocker at his position by a wide margin. He’s terrific after the catch, leading his position with an average of 9.9 yards gained after the catch per reception, and his 873 yards after the catch are the most PFF has ever charted by any player at any position. He’s in the conversation with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz as the game’s best all-around tight end.
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