Any observant fan knows the importance of a first-round pick to an NFL team. It’s no coincidence that the Oakland Raiders have turned it around following back-to-back phenomenal top-five draft picks by GM Reggie McKenzie.
And it’s also no coincidence that the Cleveland Browns – a team that essentially whiffed on all four first-round picks so far – is 2-8 and looking like the favorite to pick first in the 2016 NFL draft.
These rankings don’t factor in projection, so while injured players like Breshad Perriman and Kevin White may be ready players eventually, they have been no-shows as rookies. That counts against their team. Similarly, trading for a player – Seattle’s famous swap of a first-round pick for Jimmy Graham – does factor in to the rankings. What these rankings do is evaluate all 32 NFL teams based on the production they’ve gotten so far from their first-round picks the last two seasons.
32. Cleveland Browns
Draft Picks: CB Justin Gilbert & QB Johnny Manziel (2014) / NT Danny Shelton & C Cameron Erving (2015)
Leave it to Cleveland to have four first-round picks and not get a contributor out of them.
The team traded up for cornerback Justin Gilbert in 2014, bypassing Odell Beckham and Aaron Donald to take a player they’re now reportedly considering moving to wide receiver. Later in the draft, they picked Heisman quarterback Johnny Manziel. Manziel’s off-the-field issues have been well-documented, and while he may still turn it around as a player, the organization could have gotten Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr at the same spot.
In 2015, Cleveland again got two picks. Mammoth nose tackle Danny Shelton was expected to replace former first-round pick Phil Taylor, but Shelton has struggled so far. And center Cameron Erving is hopefully the long-term replacement to Pro Bowler Alex Mack, but the jury is still out on him.
31. Indianapolis Colts
Draft Picks: None – RB Trent Richardson* (2014) / WR Phillip Dorsett (2015)
While general manager Ryan Grigson didn’t literally draft Trent Richardson, he traded his 2014 first-rounder for arguably the worst running back of this generation.
In 29 games with the Indianapolis Colts, Richardson averaged a miserable 3.09 yards per carry before being deactivated for the 2014 playoff run. He was subsequently released in the offseason.
2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett may be the downfield threat the Colts want him to be, but he had just 11 catches before a broken ankle sidelined him as a rookie.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Draft Picks: OLB Marcus Smith (2014) / WR Nelson Agholor (2015)
Of all the teams to have exactly two first-round picks over the last two years, the Philadelphia Eagles have gotten the lowest contribution from their players.
Whether Marcus Smith was a Howie Roseman or Chip Kelly pick, the bottom line is that he’s a fringe NFL player who has collected fewer tackles in two seasons than Derek Carr – and Smith plays on the defensive side of the ball.
This year’s pick of USC’s Nelson Agholor was supposed to give the Eagles the safest wideout in the whole draft outside of Amari Cooper. But Agholor has battled injuries, and when he’s been on the field, he’s been downright ineffective, to the point that washed-up veteran Miles Austin is playing in front of him.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Draft Picks: CB Darqueze Dennard (2014) / OT Cedric Ogbuehi (2015)
As it stands now, cornerback Darqueze Dennard is one of three NFL players drafted in the first round in 2014 to have not yet started a game.
Texas A&M’s Cedric Ogbuehi has spent the season on the NFI list, rehabbing a torn ACL. He likely wasn’t going to play as a rookie anyway, as veterans Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith constitute one of the game’s better offensive tackle tandems.
28. Washington Redskins
Draft Picks: None – QB Robert Griffin III* (2014) / OT/G Brandon Scherff (2015)
The Washington Redskins’ RGIII ransom finally ended in 2014 as the St. Louis Rams used the team’s second overall pick for offensive tackle Greg Robinson.
The Redskins wisely addressed their offensive line this past season, selecting Brandon Scherff with the fifth overall pick. Scherff has played right guard as a rookie. He’s suited up for every snap and struggled as a pass blocker, although he is coming off his best NFL game.
27. Seattle Seahawks
Draft Picks: None (2014) / None – TE Jimmy Graham* (2015)
The Seattle Seahawks are the only NFL team to not draft a first-round player in the last two seasons. In 2014, they traded back so Minnesota could select Teddy Bridgewater at the bottom of the first round.
This past season, there was the notable Jimmy Graham trade, in which Seattle surrendered their first-round pick and Pro Bowl center Max Unger for Graham. Graham hasn’t been the player the Seahawks hoped for, but he’s still a massive upgrade over last year’s starter, Luke Willson, and Graham is still one of the 3-5 best tight ends in the game.
26. Chicago Bears
Draft Picks: CB Kyle Fuller (2014) / WR Kevin White (2015)
Kyle Fuller was looking like a stud pick for the first month of his rookie campaign, but he’s struggled to return to that level of play since. Meanwhile, Kevin White has Julio Jones-type upside. The key will be returning healthy in 2016 after essentially redshirting his rookie season.
25. Miami Dolphins
Draft Picks: OT Ja’Wuan James (2014) / WR DeVante Parker (2015)
Ja’Wuan James was seen as a bit of a stretch when the Miami Dolphins took him in the middle of the first round in 2014. He’s had an up-and-down NFL career so far, starting 23 games at right tackle before a turf toe sidelined him in early November.
DeVante Parker has underwhelmed as a rookie, totaling just four catches in eight games this season, and none since Week 3. It’s too early for the Dolphins to be concerned about his long-term status, but there haven’t been many positive signs so far.
24. San Francisco 49ers
Draft Picks: S Jimmie Ward (2014) / DE Arik Armstead (2015)
Jimmie Ward was repeatedly torched as a rookie, playing a reserve safety/nickel corner role. He’s been better as a sophomore, although he’s still waiting for his first interception.
Arik Armstead was a boom-or-bust player who looks solid so far; while he’s playing in a situational role in 2015, Armstead grades positively per Pro Football Focus, and he’s at his best as a pass-rusher.
23. Detroit Lions
Draft Picks: TE Eric Ebron (2014) / G Laken Tomlinson (2015)
The 10th overall pick is high enough for a tight end that the Detroit Lions have to be hoping for a Pro Bowl career from Eric Ebron; still, a 27-320-3 statline through the first half of the season is a big improvement on what was a quiet rookie campaign.
Laken Tomlinson has started seven games this season at guard. He’s had his struggles and the it remains to be seen as to whether he’s a long-term starter.
22. New England Patriots
Draft Picks: DT Dominique Easley (2014) / DT Malcom Brown (2015)
Anticipating the departure of Vince Wilfork, Bill Belichick drafted Dominique Easley in 2014, then paired him with Malcom Brown this past spring.
Easley was quiet as a rookie, but has made major strides in year two – albeit still as a backup – and is a big contributor to the No. 1 rated rushing defense in the league. Meanwhile, Brown has been starting as a rookie, generating two sacks and 13 tackles in nine games (five starts).
21. Arizona Cardinals
Draft Picks: LB/S Deone Bucannon (2014) / OT D.J. Humphries (2015)
What saves the Arizona Cardinals from ranking at the bottom of this list is Deone Bucannon; D.J. Humphries hasn’t even been able to be active for a single NFL game this season, let alone push for a starting right tackle spot.
Bucannon though, has been a talented player, and a contributor at both strong safety and outside linebacker. He’s started every game and leads the 7-2 Cardinals with 50 tackles.
20. Denver Broncos
Draft Picks: CB Bradley Roby (2014) / OLB Shane Ray (2015)
Bradley Roby’s emergence into one of the better cornerbacks in the league has given Denver an elite trio that has stifled opposing quarterbacks to the tune of a 74.58 passer rating for the season, third-best in the NFL.
The Broncos traded up for pass-rusher Shane Ray and haven’t gotten much in return so far. Ray has two sacks and four tackles on the year, and he’s been losing snaps to undrafted rookie free agent, Shaq Barrett.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
Draft Picks: ILB Ryan Shazier (2014) / OLB Bud Dupree (2015)
The Pittsburgh Steelers found a defensive playmaker in Ryan Shazier, a highly athletic linebacker who runs a 4.36 40 and has accumulated three sacks, two forced fumbles, and 36 tackles in six starts this season. The problem for Shazier is simply staying on the field; he’s battled a shoulder injury in 2015 after missing seven games as a rookie with a knee injury.
This year’s first-rounder, Bud Dupree, has contributed four sacks as a situational pass-rusher off the bench.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft Picks: QB Blake Bortles (2014) / DE Dante Fowler (2015)
Jacksonville’s somewhat risky decision to take unpolished quarterback Blake Bortles in last year’s draft is looking much better this season than it did in 2014.
Bortles has followed up a dismal rookie campaign with a solid sophomore year – he’s tossed 19 touchdowns already, reduced his interception rate while doubling his QBR, and he’s an underrated threat to run with the football.
Dante Fowler suffered an unfortunate preseason knee injury this year that placed him on season-ending IR before he got the chance to play a snap.
17. New Orleans Saints
Draft Picks: WR Brandin Cooks (2014) / OT Andrus Peat & ILB Stephone Anthony (2015)
Drafting Brandin Cooks gives Drew Brees the downfield threat he needs to open up the New Orleans Saints’ offense, and Cooks ranks 16th among all wide receivers in 2015 with 701 yards already.
The Saints picked twice this past spring, thanks to the Jimmy Graham trade. Andrus Peat is a likely 2016 starter, as he’s expected to replace Zach Strief at right tackle. Meanwhile, inside linebacker Stephone Anthony leads the team in tackles as a rookie, although that’s not as impressive as it sounds considering the caliber of his team’s defense.
16. Kansas City Chiefs
Draft Picks: OLB Dee Ford (2014) / CB Marcus Peters (2015)
Dee Ford has been as much of a wasted draft pick as anyone from the first round in 2014; Ford has not yet started an NFL game, registering just 1.5 sacks, zero forced fumbles, and this infamous play.
Marcus Peters though, looks like a franchise cornerback. He’s been thrust right into action, and while he’s given up his share of yards and touchdowns, Peters leads the NFL in passes defensed (13), and he recorded an interception on his first-ever NFL play.
15. Baltimore Ravens
Draft Picks: ILB C.J. Mosley (2014) / WR Breshad Perriman (2015)
General manager Ozzie Newsome nailed it with inside linebacker C.J. Mosley, a player who looks like he can lock down the middle of this Baltimore defense for the next decade.
The organization hasn’t seen many positive signs so far from wide receiver Breshad Perriman, an incredibly talented but raw playmaker whose rookie season has been cut short by what his head coach calls the longest-healing PCL injury ever.
14. San Diego Chargers
Draft Picks: CB Jason Verrett (2014) / RB Melvin Gordon (2015)
Despite being undersized, cornerback Jason Verrett is a feisty ballhawk who rates as one of the better players in the league at his position. That’s especially significant because veteran Brandon Flowers has seemingly dropped off a cliff this year in terms of production.
Melvin Gordon hasn’t been quite the rookie the San Diego Chargers were hoping for when they traded up to acquire him in the first round. He’s averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. He’s been benched for excessive fumbling. And remarkably, he still hasn’t found the end zone in 135 career touches.
13. Buffalo Bills
Draft Picks: WR Sammy Watkins (2014/2015)
The Buffalo Bills traded their 2015 first-round pick to move up five spots in 2014 and draft Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, essentially utilizing two consecutive first-round picks for Watkins.
It’s a lot to give up for one player – especially considering Odell Beckham, Jr. was still on the board – but Watkins has Pro Bowl talent. He posted a 65/982/6 statline as a rookie with Kyle Orton and EJ Manuel throwing passes to him, and he’s only going to get better.
12. Houston Texans
Draft Picks: DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney (2014) / CB Kevin Johnson (2015)
Bypassing a quarterback to select Jadeveon Clowney was an interesting move, especially now that Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr all look like franchise signal-callers. Clowney missed most of his rookie season with the dreaded microfracture surgery, but it looks like he has rebounded strong in 2015. He’s recorded 12 quarterback hurries and 13 stops, mostly as a starting right outside linebacker.
Cornerback Kevin Johnson is a tall, rangy corner with tremendous skills, and he’s given the Houston Texans arguably the top corner trio in the NFL.
11. Carolina Panthers
Draft Picks: WR Kelvin Benjamin (2014) / OLB Shaq Thompson (2015)
The Carolina Panthers didn’t waste time with Kelvin Benjamin, throwing him into the fire as a rookie, where he responded with an impressive 73/1,008/9 statline. His torn ACL this preseason was a major blow to the Panthers’ receiving corps.
2015 first-rounder Shaq Thompson is a highly athletic outside linebacker with the ballhawking skills to be a playmaker for the Panthers. His numbers don’t stand out, but he is a six-game starter for a 9-0 Carolina team that leads the NFL in interceptions.
10. New York Jets
Draft Picks: S Calvin Pryor (2014) / DE Leonard Williams (2015)
The Calvin Pryor pick isn’t looking great for the New York Jets. While he’s a starter at strong safety, Pro Football Focus rates him poorly in all three facets of the game – run defense, pass coverage, and pass rushing. He’s also missed seven of his 37 tackle attempts.
But Leonard Williams was a star from the first time he stepped on the field. He’s one of only 3-4 defensive ends with double-digit QB hits, per PFF. He’s a top-10 player at his position, and he’s played well enough that Jets head coach Todd Bowles has experimented with moving Sheldon Richardson to a stand-up 3-4 outside linebacker role.
9. Green Bay Packers
Draft Picks: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (2014) / CB/S Damarious Randall (2015)
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is a star in the making. He’s started all 25 games since the Green Bay Packers drafted him, and while he’s struggled in pass coverage, he’s arguably the best run defender of all the safeties.
The Packers double dipped with defensive backs, taking Damarious Randall in the first round a year later. Randall has held up well in coverage, recording two interception so far and holding opponents to a 79.5 passer rating.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Draft Picks: OT Jake Matthews (2014) / DE/OLB Vic Beasley (2015)
Jake Matthews was abysmal as a rookie, as he tried to play through a severe ankle injury and saw his performance suffer as a result. But he’s been a standout player as a sophomore. Franchise left tackles are worth hefty contracts, and Matthews looks like a keeper for the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons addressed their defense in 2015, taking Vic Beasley to improve their pass rush. The sacks will come for Beasley, who has amassed 18 quarterback hurries already and looks like he will be a terrific defensive end.
7. Dallas Cowboys
Draft Picks: G Zack Martin (2014) / CB/S Byron Jones (2015)
Picking a guard in the first round isn’t nearly as exciting as picking Johnny Manziel, but the Dallas Cowboys went 12-4 in 2014 with Zack Martin starting all 16 games and rating as one of the finest interior linemen in the league. The Cowboys feel strongly enough about Martin’s play (along with Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick) that they allowed league rushing leader DeMarco Murray to walk in free agency this past offseason.
Defensive back Byron Jones was drafted as a corner, but has contributed – and done so very well – as a safety. Jones has 25 tackles and six passes defensed in just nine games.
6. New York Giants
Draft Picks: WR Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014) / OT Ereck Flowers (2015)
Ereck Flowers has been a train wreck of a left tackle this season, but Odell Beckham, Jr. has been spectacular enough that the New York Giants still get the sixth spot on this list.
What can be said about OBJ that hasn’t already been said? From a 91/1,305/12 statline as a rookie – in just 12 games! – to Madden cover boy to the catch that took the world by storm – Beckham has a chance to go down as one of the greatest receivers to ever play. He has a favorable quarterback situation and he’s shown no signs of slowing down in year two. The only thing that could stop him is injuries.
5. Minnesota Vikings
Draft Picks: OLB Anthony Barr & QB Teddy Bridgewater (2014) / CB Trae Waynes (2015)
The Minnesota Vikings nabbed themselves a likely franchise quarterback and defensive superstar with their two first-round picks in 2014. Teddy Bridgewater may be more of the Alex Smith game manager type, but he limits his interceptions and the Vikings are in first place in the NFC North this season. Time will tell if Bridgewater is good enough to elevate his teammates.
Anthony Barr is already one of the best outside linebackers in the NFL. Trae Waynes has played sparingly as a rookie, but his upside suggests he could become a shutdown corner.
4. St. Louis Rams
Draft Picks: OT Greg Robinson & DT Aaron Donald (2014) / RB Todd Gurley (2015)
Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley are true game-changers who dominate on their respective sides of the football. Donald is arguably the finest interior defensive lineman not named J.J. Watt, while Gurley wasted no time in establishing himself as arguably the best running back in the league already.
The blemish has been No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson, a second-year player who has shown very few signs that he can be a franchise tackle. Robinson rates per PFF as the fourth-worst offensive tackle in the NFL, and he leads his position in penalties (10).
3. Oakland Raiders
Draft Picks: OLB Khalil Mack (2014) / WR Amari Cooper (2015)
In terms of raw talent and production, no team has done better with its picks than the Oakland Raiders. Khalil Mack is already a top-10 defensive player in the league, just a notch below J.J. Watt, Darrelle Revis, Von Miller, Justin Houston, and Aaron Donald. In fact, as a rookie, PFF rated Mack as the second-best overall defensive player (Watt was first).
GM Reggie McKenzie – who got himself a terrific quarterback with Derek Carr in Round 2 last year – gave his QB a top-tier wide receiver in Amari Cooper. Cooper isn’t quite what OBJ was as a rookie, but he’s 13th in the league with 732 receiving yards, and has an outside chance to surpass Bill Groman’s rookie record of 1,473 yards (set in 1960).
It’s an impressive job by McKenzie, whose Raiders could sneak into the postseason this year. The only thing keeping the Raiders from ranking first is that production from a quarterback weighs more heavily on the rankings.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Draft Picks: WR Mike Evans (2014) & QB Jameis Winston (2015)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have gotten Odell Beckham, Jr. with the seventh overall pick last year, but Mike Evans is no slouch. As a rookie, Evans was a touchdown machine, finding the end zone 12 times. He’s a legitimate No. 1 receiver going forward.
This year, the Buccaneers finally got themselves what looks to be their quarterback of the future. Jameis Winston has had his growing pains, but he’s steadily improved as the year goes on. As it stands now, Winston has accounted for 14 total touchdowns, and a win Sunday over Philadelphia has Tampa Bay at .500 and in the thick of the NFC wild card race.
1. Tennessee Titans
Draft Picks: OT Taylor Lewan (2014) / QB Marcus Mariota (2015)
A franchise quarterback and a franchise left tackle – can’t do much better than that.
Taylor Lewan has allowed just eight quarterback hurries in 575 offensive snaps this season, and he’s a year away from earning All-Pro honors. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is in the running for the Offensive Rookie of the Year, starting with his 158.3 passer rating in his first-ever NFL game. The two of them may finally bring the Tennessee Titans back to relevance.
