Anywhere from four to eight former NFL players get inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame every year. Considering there are 32 NFL teams with 53-man rosters (plus injured reserve, suspensions, practice squad, and roster turnover), that’s over 1,700 players who will set foot on a football field in 2023. The odds of any one of those making it to Canton, Ohio (home of the HOF) is extraordinarily low.
When evaluating the best of the best, I looked strongly at the same individual accolades voters will recognize. How many times was this player a Pro Bowler, a First-Team All-Pro, or a league MVP? How often did he lead the league in a particular statistical category? Was he viewed as one of the best in the league at his position for an extended period of time?
I wanted to include more than 50 players on this list, and if I look back at this a year from now, I will likely see glaring omissions from my end. I couldn’t work Cooper Kupp onto my list. Same with Darius Slay or Mark Andrews. Players who have not officially announced their retirement but are currently unsigned – Jason Peters or Julio Jones for example – are excluded from this list.
Among the Best to Ever Play Their Position (5)
QB Aaron Rodgers
DT Aaron Donald
QB Patrick Mahomes
TE Travis Kelce
K Justin Tucker
Only Peyton Manning has more regular season MVP awards (5) than Aaron Rodgers’ four… Depending on how long he plays, Aaron Donald may surpass Lawrence Taylor or Reggie White as the greatest defensive player this game has ever seen… Patrick Mahomes could retire now and be a sure-bet Hall of Famer, given his two regular season MVP awards, two Super Bowl MVPs, and the highest passer rating of all-time… Travis Kelce has seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. No other tight end in NFL history has more than four. And Kelce’s postseason resume is the icing on the cake… Justin Tucker is not the active player with the fifth-best HOF chances. But given his dominance for over a decade, he’s arguably the greatest kicker of all-time. He will one day join Jan Stenerud and Morten Andersen as the only pure kickers in Canton.
Could Retire Now and Have a Plaque in Canton (6)
OT Trent Williams
LB Bobby Wagner
C Jason Kelce
CB Patrick Peterson
EDGE Von Miller
OT Tyron Smith
Trent Williams’ career has seen a resurgence since joining the Kyle Shanahan zone rushing scheme and he’s playing his best football at age 35. He’s already one of five offensive tackles to earn 10 or more Pro Bowls… Even in an era in which off-ball linebackers can be devalued, Bobby Wagner has stood out. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, only Ray Lewis and Mike Singletary have earned more First-Team All-Pro selection than Wagner’s six… Jason Kelce is arguably the most athletic center the game has ever seen. Even in his mid-thirties, he gets better every year… Patrick Peterson lived up to his potential as a top-five draft selection at cornerback. He was a member of the 2010s NFL All-Decade Team and has recorded 46 takeaways in 12 seasons… Von Miller has seven double-digit sack seasons and played a pivotal role on two Super Bowl champion teams (2015 Denver Broncos and 2021 Los Angeles Rams), winning the game’s MVP with Denver… Tyron Smith has excelled as a pass blocker, but he’s also paved the way for three different league rushing champions since debuting in 2011.
Likely Future Hall of Famers (9)
G Zack Martin
EDGE T.J. Watt
EDGE Myles Garrett
CB Jalen Ramsey
WR Tyreek Hill
WR Davante Adams
WR DeAndre Hopkins
LB Fred Warner
EDGE Khalil Mack
Guards have a notoriously difficult time getting into Canton, but Zack Martin is one of the best. His reworked contract means he enters year 10 with Dallas, where he’s already earned six First-Team All-Pro selections… T.J. Watt has already won a Defensive Player of the Year award, led the league in sacks twice, and tied his brother J.J. in Pro Bowl invitations (5). He’s so dominant that it went largely unnoticed when he tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record* with 22.5 in 2021… Myles Garrett has a chance to go from a rare No. 1 overall pick as a defensive player to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He had 72 sacks before his 27th birthday… Jalen Ramsey’s preseason knee injury will cost him most of the 2023 season, but he will still be just 29 heading into next season. He’s already established himself as one of the premier cornerbacks of this generation, and he has the size to one day make a transition to safety.
Assuming voters don’t hold his off-the-field incidents against him, Tyreek Hill should be an easy Hall of Famer even if he does retire after the 2025 season as he has indicated. He’s quite simply the fastest man in the game and has scored a touchdown in five different ways (rushing, receiving, punt return, kick return, and fumble return)… To state the obvious, Davante Adams is exceptional at scoring touchdowns. He led the NFL with 18 for Green Bay in 2020 and then 14 for Las Vegas in 2022. Since 2016, his 83 receiving scores are 26% more than any other player… DeAndre Hopkins is quarterback-proof. He’s had four 100 catch seasons with three different passers… Fred Warner is a defensive coordinator’s dream linebacker. In an era in which the offense controls the middle of the field, Warner is as dominant as we’ve seen from his position.
Could Go Either Way (14)
QB Russell Wilson
OT Lane Johnson
EDGE Calais Campbell
RB Derrick Henry
DT Chris Jones
G Quenton Nelson
IDL Cameron Heyward
EDGE Cameron Jordan
WR Mike Evans
S Harrison Smith
S Tyrann Mathieu
WR Stefon Diggs
DT Fletcher Cox
EDGE Joey Bosa
If he never regains his elite form in Denver, I believe Russell Wilson has done enough to warrant the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He’s been to nine Pro Bowls, won a Super Bowl, and he’s just 34 rushing yards away from being the only player in history with 40,000 career passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards. But will voters feel that way?… Like a fine wine, Lane Johnson gets better with age. He’s been the game’s best right tackle for the better part of a decade. He hasn’t allowed a sack since 2020 and he’s surrendered exactly one QB hit over the last two seasons… There aren’t many 6’8”, 300-pound athletic freaks like Calais Campbell. He’ll notch his 100th career sack in 2023, and he’s sixth in tackles for loss (a stat first tracked in 1999). There’s no defining moment on his resume – just a bunch of really, really good seasons… The running back position has to be viewed like the starting pitcher in baseball. RBs don’t get 12,000 yards anymore, just like pitchers don’t reach 300 wins. But Derrick Henry is a special breed. He’s won multiple rushing titles, put up the eighth 2,000-yard season in history, had a 99-yard run, and led the league in rushing touchdowns twice… Staying in Kansas City is Chris Jones’ best bet to one day wind up in Canton. He’s approaching Aaron Donald’s status as the most unblockable interior defensive lineman in the game, and he’s the top defensive player for a soon-to-be dynasty.
Quenton Nelson started his career with 48 games started, three Pro Bowls, and three First-Team AP All-Pro selections in his first three years. The complete list of NFL players to do that? Just Nelson. He’s experienced some injuries since then, but he’s still on a ridiculously strong start, albeit for a guard… Cameron Heyward’s six best seasons have come in the last six seasons. He’s racked up 78.5 sacks primarily as a 3-4 defensive end, and he’s shown no recent signs of declining… Cameron Jordan has never played fewer than 16 games in a season. His credentials are outstanding: 2010s All-Decade Team selection, eight Pro Bowls, 115.5 career sacks. Once Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis make the Hall of Fame, Jordan will likely get in… If Mike Evans gets in the Hall, it will be a win for longevity over yearly dominance. Not that Evans isn’t a great receiver – he’s the only player ever to start his career with nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons – but he’s only been Second-Team All-Pro once, never First-Team, and he’s never led the league in a category. But if he can put together a few more seasons and clear 14,000 yards, he’s going to make the Hall of Fame.
Harrison Smith is teetering on the edge of Hall of Fame status. He’s a six-time Pro Bowler with 34 career interceptions and 16.5 sacks. A few more productive seasons could push him over the hump… The Honey Badger has an interesting HOF resume. Tyrann Mathieu’s three AP1s are usually enough to get a player enshrined, but he’s also played for four teams in the last six years. Mathieu was a key member of the 2019 Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. A second ring could cement his case… There’s no shortage of spectacular wide receivers in the passing era, but Stefon Diggs still presents a strong case. He’s led the NFL in receptions over the last three seasons (338). He has the famous Minneapolis Miracle touchdown catch. As long as he can stay happy in Buffalo, he will continue to rack up the yardage… Eleven seasons into the career of Fletcher Cox and we’ve seen a dynamic interior rusher pick up six Pro Bowl selections, 65 sacks, and a Super Bowl ring. He’s competing with other standout defensive tackles like Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh… Injuries haven’t helped Joey Bosa’s case as of late, but he’s also in danger of falling more in the Hall of Very Good category. Through his age-27 season, Bosa has four double-digit sack seasons and four Pro Bowls but no AP1s and just one playoff win.
Still On Their Rookie Deal (or Close to it) But They’re On The Right Track (12)
WR Justin Jefferson
EDGE Micah Parsons
QB Joe Burrow
QB Josh Allen
EDGE Nick Bosa
WR Ja’Marr Chase
CB Sauce Gardner
QB Justin Herbert
CB Patrick Surtain
OT Tristan Wirfs
QB Trevor Lawrence
QB Jalen Hurts
How good is Justin Jefferson? He has more receiving yards in his first three NFL seasons (4,825) than the legendary Randy Moss had in his three best in any order (4,562). It’s tough to see anyone challenging Jerry Rice’s landmarks, but Jefferson has a chance to finish as a top-five receiver ever… Micah Parsons has played two seasons and already looks like a threat to contend for title of greatest pass rusher ever. He’s just the second defensive player in league history (Lawrence Taylor) to earn a First-Team All-Pro selection in each of his first two seasons. Even Aaron Donald didn’t do it… Cool Joe Burrow is everything you want in a franchise quarterback. He can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes. He has the highest completion percentage in NFL history. As long as he can cut down on his sacks and stay healthy, he’s going to be an all-timer.
Josh Allen signed his six-year extension over two years ago, but considering his struggles his first two years, he feels younger and newer than he is. Allen is a one-man offense if there ever was one; he has three seasons of 35+ TD passes and five rushing scores while every other QB in history has five total. Can he continue to be his team’s main rushing attack while staying healthy?… Nick Bosa just added a Defensive Player of the Year award to his resume, and he’s still just 25 years old coming off 34 sacks in his last 33 games… There will be quite a logjam of wide receivers competing for Canton in a few decades. Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne still can’t get in, and they’re both in the top 10 all-time in receiving yards. So Ja’Marr Chase will need many more years of elite production to be considered, but he’s off to a dominant start. He had a modern rookie record 1,455 receiving yards in 2021, and he’s paired with an MVP-caliber quarterback in Joe Burrow… Sauce Gardner is the only player to make this list after just one NFL season. Too soon? I don’t think so. Sauce came into the NFL with a bang, starting all 17 games and becoming the first cornerback since Ronnie Lott in 1981 to earn First-Team All-Pro honors as a rookie.
Justin Herbert has all the physical tools you want from a quarterback. He’s averaged almost 4,700 passing yards and 34 total touchdowns since entering the league in 2020. His biggest blemish to date is just a 25-24 career record as a starter and no playoff wins, but I’d rather bet on the talent. After all, it took Peyton Manning some time to win his first postseason game… Here’s the complete list of cornerbacks to earn a First-Team All-Pro selection at age 22 or younger during the Super Bowl era: Hall of Famer Ronnie Lott, future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson, Sauce Gardner, and Patrick Surtain… Blocking for Tom Brady will make any offensive tackle look great, but that doesn’t mean Tristan Wirfs isn’t a bonafide superstar. He’s making the transition to left tackle in year four in 2023. Just three years into his career, Wirfs has already established himself as one of the game’s premier pass blockers… Trevor Lawrence is one of the greatest quarterback prospects of the last 40 years, and he shook off the Urban Meyer stench to lead Jacksonville to a playoff berth and a 27-point comeback in the Wild Card Round. If Lawrence keeps ascending under quarterback guru Doug Pederson, he will enjoy a long and prosperous career as a top-five passer… Jalen Hurts gets better every year. He just finished second in the league MVP voting, accounted for 44 total touchdowns (including the postseason), and led the Eagles to 35 points in the Super Bowl. I’m still not sure he’s reached his ceiling.
Only Injuries Will Keep Them Out (4)
TE George Kittle
OT David Bakhtiari
RB Christian McCaffrey
QB Lamar Jackson
There’s no denying George Kittle’s talent. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler, a dynamic pass catcher and run blocker, and probably the second-best tight end in the game behind Travis Kelce. He just needs to beat the injury bug. Kittle entered the league as a seasoned 24-year-old and has missed multiple games due to injury in each of the last four seasons… As a pass blocker, David Bakhtiari is one of the best of the last decade. He’s earned First or Second-Team All-Pro in five different seasons, and he’s played a major role in three different Aaron Rodgers MVP awards. Bakhtiari is just 31, but has already missed 26 games in the last three seasons and has struggled to return from a serious ACL tear… Christian McCaffrey is the perfect modern day running back. He can line up in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide. He’s averaged 113 scrimmage yards per game through six seasons. His best chance of making the Hall? Win a Super Bowl as the primary back in Kyle Shanahan’s offense… Based on historical averages, an NFL MVP has about a 67% chance of making the Hall of Fame. Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season was one of the best ever by a quarterback – he accounted for 43 total touchdowns and won the award unanimously. He’s 45-16 as a starter and already one of the greatest dual-threat players ever. His style of play needs to take him into his thirties, and he needs a Super Bowl appearance.
