The Hall of Fame isn’t what it used to be. What once was the highest honor for a baseball player no longer has the same meaning. The all-time hit king isn’t in the Hall. Neither is the all-time home run leader. Same with a three-time MVP middle infielder or a seven-time Cy Young award-winning pitcher.
Recent 16-man committees like the Today’s Game Era Committee and the Modern Baseball Committee have made it much easier for underwhelming candidates to make it by simply obtaining 12 votes (75 percent) from a group of their former peers.
That doesn’t mean Cooperstown isn’t the highest individual award a player can receive, and there are some well-deserving players who have not yet been added. I ranked the 50 best players not currently in the Hall of Fame.
Some of these are still active and thus remain ineligible until they’ve been away from the game for five years. Some had great careers and long overdue but for some reason, just haven’t made it. And some probably aren’t deserving but if you make a list of the top non-Hall of Famers, they’re going to qualify.
If you missed my article ranking every player currently in the Hall of Fame – in order – click here.
50. Dwight Evans, RF, 1972-1991
Stats: .272/.370/.470, 385 HR, 1,384 RBI, 127 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 67.1 WAR, 33.0 WAA, 52.2 JAWS, 4.22 WAR/162
It’s surprising that Dwight Evans never received more than 10.4 percent of the Hall of Fame votes and then fell off the BBWAA ballot after just three years. Evans was an unusual player, contributing more values in his thirties (34.1 WAR) than his twenties (33.0 WAR). He did a lot of the things that go unnoticed very well, drawing walks and playing elite defense.
Evans’ counting stats aren’t on par with other HOF right fielders – a .272 batting average, 385 home runs, and 78 steals – but his healthy WAR total and longevity contribute to at least a solid Hall of Fame case.
49. Luis Tiant, SP, 1964-1982
Stats: 229-172, 3.30 ERA, 3,486.1 IP, 2,416 K, 1.199 WHIP, 114 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 66.1 WAR, 34.5 WAA, 55.1 JAWS
The ultimate junkballer, Luis Tiant’s screwball was one of the best pitches of his era. Tiant won 229 games, winning 20 in four different seasons. In the legendary pitching season of 1968, Tiant led the American League with a 1.60 ERA, topping the majors with 5.3 hits allowed per nine innings – an even better total than NL MVP Bob Gibson, whose 1.12 ERA is a modern record.
Tiant never won a Cy Young or finished higher than fourth in the voting, although he stuck around long enough to compile an impressive 66.1 career WAR. He’s not a deserving Hall of Famer, but with the way Cooperstown has been trending, he will likely make it via one of the 16-man committees soon enough.
48. Billy Wagner, RP, 1995-2010
Stats: 47-40, 422 saves, 2.31 ERA, 903 IP, 1,196 K, 0.998 WHIP, 187 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 27.7 WAR, 16.5 WAA, 23.7 JAWS
Recent history doesn’t recognize Billy Wagner for how dominant he was. He got just 10.5 percent of the Hall of Fame voting in 2016, his first year of eligibility, and was still only at 51.0 percent at this year. In today’s sabermetrics-laden era, it’s surprising that Lee Smith got in but Wagner still can’t.
There are strong HOF arguments for and against Wagner. His dominance was evident with every 100 MPH fastball he threw. Among retired relievers, his 187 career ERA+ is second only to Mariano Rivera, and he’s first in both strikeout rate (11.9 K/9) and opponents’ batting average allowed (.187). There were five seasons before 2000 in which a pitcher threw at least 50 IP and had at least a 14.0 K/9 rate. Wagner had three of them, and they came in three consecutive years (1997, 1998, and 1999).
The knock against Wagner is that he got some easy saves throughout his career. Wagner is sixth on the all-time list with 422 saves (a number that could have been much higher if he didn’t retire after arguably his best year).
The wonderful website, Cooperstown Cred, did a comprehensive breakdown of the types of saves Wagner converted. A full 86 percent of those saves came when he pitched a ‘clean inning’, meaning he entered at the start of the inning with no outs and no one on base. 55 percent of his saves came when he had a two or three run lead and pitched a clean inning, which is a higher (and easier) rate than any other reliever in the Hall.
He would also be the only pitcher in the Hall of Fame not to exceed 1,000 career innings pitched, which is a testament to the unique specialty role of being a modern closer. And it’s tough to ignore a frightening 10.13 ERA in the postseason.
In an era when everyone posts gaudy relief statistics, the trick is figuring out how rare and special Wagner really was.
47. Craig Kimbrel, RP, 2010-Active
Stats: 35-29, 372 saves, 2.18 ERA, 628.1 IP, 1,026 K, 0.953 WHIP, 188 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 21.9 WAR, 12.7 WAA, 20.6 JAWS
Craig Kimbrel’s ranks among post-1900 pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched:
Opponents’ batting average allowed: .157, H/9: 4.94 (1st)
ERA+: 193, K/9: 14.70, opponents’ slugging percentage allowed: .257 (2nd)
FIP: 2.20 (6th)
ERA: 2.11 (T-6th)
He’s unlike any relief pitcher we’ve seen to date, allowing fewer hits than Aroldis Chapman and striking out more batters per nine innings than Billy Wagner. Kimbrel is the only closer in history with as many as 200 saves and a save percentage over 90, and he’s sitting comfortably at first on the active leaderboard at 371 saves.
Four straight seasons early on Kimbrel led the league in saves, posting absurd single-season ERAs of 2.10, 1.01, 1.21, and 1.61. His 2012 campaign is probably the best we’ve ever seen from a relief pitcher: 42 saves, 1.01 ERA, 116 strikeouts to just 36 baserunners allowed, and a 0.78 FIP that still stands as the best ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. He’s insanely dominant against both righties and lefties as well.
After a rough two-year stretch from 2019-’20, Kimbrel returned to elite form for the first half of 2021, then faded down the summer. A few more seasons would really help his case.
46. Chris Sale, SP, 2010-Active
Stats: 114-74, 3.03 ERA, 1,672.1 IP, 2,059 K, 1.042 WHIP, 140 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 46.5 WAR, 30.9 WAA, 43.0 JAWS
Chris Sale’s unorthodox delivery finally saw him break down late in 2019, requiring Tommy John surgery that kept him out for nearly two full seasons. As it stands now, Sale wouldn’t likely make Cooperstown without a second half career rebound, but that shouldn’t diminish how absurdly dominant he’s been since 2012.
Despite never winning a Cy Young, Sale finished in the top six for seven straight years. He owns the major league record for career strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.39) and K/9 (11.1) and was the fastest pitcher to reach both 1,500 and 2,000 strikeouts.
Sale still has three years remaining on his $145M contract with the Red Sox, which gives him time to continue adding to an extremely low win total (114). Considering he returned from injury as a still-effective pitcher (his fastball velocity of 93.6 was exactly on par with his career average), he’s a good bet to keep adding to his resume.
45. Tommy John, SP, 1963-1989
Stats: 288-231, 3.34 ERA, 4,710.1 IP, 2,245 K, 1.283 WHIP, 111 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 61.6 WAR, 21.6 WAA, 48.1 JAWS
For what it’s worth, coining the most famous surgery in professional sports has no bearing on Tommy John’s Hall of Fame case – at least not from this writer’s viewpoint.
But John finished just 11 wins shy from what was almost automatic inclusion in the HOF. Until Roger Clemens came along, every pitcher to ever win 300 games made the Hall of Fame – and we all know why Clemens didn’t make it. Would Cooperstown have made an exception for John, whose statistics are inferior to nearly every other member of the club?
It’s tough to tell. Fortunately, it never came to that. John’s 288 wins are impressive, although his 111 ERA is just 11 percent above average. He wasn’t a strikeout pitcher by any means, but fashioned impressive HR/9 total and excellent counting stats. He’s a good Hall of Very Good pitcher.
44. Andy Pettitte, SP, 1995-2013
Stats: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3,316 IP, 2,448 K, 1.351 WHIP, 117 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 60.2 WAR, 29.3 WAA, 47.2 JAWS
Andy Pettitte’s 3.85 career ERA isn’t a Hall of Fame number, but it also doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s a respectable mark given the steroid-infused American League for which he pitched in the 2000s; in fact, he finished 17 percent above league average.
By virtue of pitching for the New York Yankees, Pettitte threw a lot of postseason innings. His 276.2 playoff frames are an all-time record, and he helped the Yankees (and Houston) to eight World Series, winning five rings. That’s ridiculous hardware, although Pettitte still doesn’t have the dominance to warrant a HOF induction.
43. Albert Belle, LF, 1989-2000
Stats: .295/.369/.564, 381 HR, 1,239 RBI, 144 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 40.1 WAR, 17.2 WAA, 38.1 JAWS, 4.22 WAR/162
Few players were born to hit a baseball like Albert Belle, who absolutely destroyed them for the better part of a decade. Over his 10 years as a starter, Belle averaged 37 home runs and 120 RBIs per year, posting a ridiculous 146 OPS+. In 1995, he became the first player to hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same season – and he did it in a strike-shortened campaign!
Belle will never make the Hall of Fame, not with his on-field controversies (the corked bat incident), the off-field controversies (destroying clubhouses), and legal issues, plus the fact that he’s universally hated. And a hip injury forced him into early retirement at age 33, so it’s difficult to make a case for a player that also falls short in both traditional metrics (1,726 hits) and advanced stats (40.1 WAR).
42. Felix Hernandez, SP, 2005-2019
Stats: 169-136, 3.42 ERA, 2,729.2 IP, 2,524 K, 1.206 WHIP, 117 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 50.3 WAR, 24.8 WAA, 44.3 JAWS
Some players simply peak earlier than others, and such was the case of King Felix. He threw 90 MPH at age 14, was signed to a professional contract at age 16, was the No. 1 prospect in the minor leagues, and made his major league debut when he was still a teenager.
Hernandez threw an immaculate inning at age 22, was an All-Star at 23, a Cy Young award winner at 24, and tossed the 23rd and most recent perfect game in MLB history at age 26. By the time he was 30, Hernandez had made seven All-Star teams, won nearly 150 games, and recorded over 2,000 strikeouts.
The unfortunate aspect of Hernandez’s career was that he broke down early on; he didn’t throw a pitch in the majors after age 33. As it stands now, it’s doubtful he ever makes Cooperstown.
41. Sammy Sosa, RF, 1989-2007
Stats: .291/.395/.475, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 128 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 60.2 WAR, 28.3 WAA, 50.9 JAWS, 4.63 WAR/162
Mark McGwire famously broke the home run record in 1998. Barry Bonds broke McGwire’s record just three years later. Ken Griffey, Jr. was the face of baseball for the 1990s. And Sammy Sosa? Well, all he did was hit 60+ home runs three times, more than anyone else in history.
Sosa didn’t lead the league in any of those seasons, but led the major leagues with 50 in 2000 and the National League with 49 in 2002. In all, he hit 292 home runs over a five-year span (58.4 per year) and 479 over a 10-year span (47.9 per year). Sosa finished his career with 609 home runs, becoming the fifth player ever to reach the 600 club.
Of course, there’s also the glaring PED issue, and that’s why Sosa will never make the Hall of Fame. He denied using them during the 2005 congressional hearing but was named in the 2009 NY Times as having tested positive back in ’03. Sosa has never even reached 20 percent of the needed votes. It’s doubtful he ever makes the Hall.
40. Gary Sheffield, RF, 1988-2009
Stats: .291/.395/.475, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 128 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 60.2 WAR, 28.3 WAA, 50.9 JAWS, 4.63 WAR/162
Once upon a time, hitting 500 home runs meant a guaranteed spot in the Hall of Fame. Then Mark McGwire joined the 500 club. Then Barry Bonds. And Sammy Sosa. And Rafael Palmeiro. Of the 12 most recent players to hit 500 home runs, it’s fair to say the majority will struggle to reach Cooperstown, mostly due to being linked to PEDs.
Gary Sheffield’s HOF case is clearly on the offensive side of the ball. Aside from being one of 27 players to reach 500 home runs and one of just four with 500 homers and 250 steals. Sheffield had great plate discipline, walking over 100 times in four seasons and posting a near-.400 career OBP. And amazingly enough, he never struck out more than 83 times in a season.
It’s the defensive side of the ball that could keep Sheffield out. Outfield defense isn’t as important as shortstop defense, but still, Sheffield was flat out awful, registering -195 defensive runs over a 22-year career. That’s the second-worst total of any player ever. Factoring in his propensity to change teams frequently during the prime if his career and his linkage to PEDs, there’s no reason to expect that Sheffield will ever make the Hall.
39. Bobby Abreu, RF, 1996-2014
Stats: .291/.395/.475, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 128 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 60.2 WAR, 28.3 WAA, 50.9 JAWS, 4.63 WAR/162
For the duration of his career, Bobby Abreu was as consistent as it gets – a perennial .300/.400/.500 hitter who finished with more 20 HR/20 SB seasons (9) than any hitter whose last name isn’t Bonds. He’s 20th all-time in career walks, 25th in career doubles, and put together a seven-year run in which he finished between 5.4 and 6.6 WAR every year.
Abreu also played better defense than he’s historically given credit for. He won a Gold Glove, led all right fielders in assists twice, and ended up playing more games in right field than all but 10 other players in history.
The biggest problem with Abreu was that his teams always seemed to play better when he wasn’t there – the Phillies won five straight division titles and a World Series after trading Abreu and the Yankees won the World Series after he left for LA. Abreu also never finished inside the top 12 in MVP voting, meaning there was a consensus around the league that he wasn’t as value as his numbers, and he made just two All-Star teams. It’s going to be an uphill battle for him to make the Hall of Fame.
38. Lance Berkman, 1B, 1999-2013
Stats: .293/.406/.537, 366 HR, 1,234 RBI, 144 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 52.0 WAR, 28.3 WAA, 45.6 JAWS, 4.46 WAR/162
Playing second (or third) fiddle to both Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio didn’t help Lance Berkman’s HOF case, but the fact that he received just 1.2% of the votes in 2019 is just shameful. Berkman was a dynamo hitter, hitting over 300 home runs, driving in 1,000 runs, and batting .300 for the calendar decade of the 2000s.
He was at his best in the postseason, batting .385 and .423 in his two World Series appearances. In Game 6 of the 2011 World Series, he hit a two-out, two-strike game-tying RBI single in the bottom of the 10th inning with the St. Louis Cardinals a strike away from elimination.
Berkman probably doesn’t deserve Cooperstown; that being said, falling off the ballot on his first year of voting is ludicrous.
37. Fred McGriff, 1B, 1986-2004
Stats: .284/.377/.509, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 134 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 52.6 WAR, 19.8 WAA, 44.3 JAWS, 3.46 WAR/162
Fred McGriff was so close; in fact, he was 98.6 percent of the way to joining a 500 HR club that was a rarity as late as 2000.
Since then? 13 players have joined the club in 21 years. Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro won’t make it due to PED allegations. Mark McGwire never cleared 25 percent of the votes. Gary Sheffield has gained support in recent years, but he’s still at just 40 percent. It’s not nearly as much of a guarantee as it used to be.
That brings us to McGriff. He was a clean player during the steroid era, yet finished just seven home runs short of the illustrious 500 club. He led the league twice, but never hit more than 37 in a single season. He never won an MVP and changed teams frequently, suiting up for six clubs in his career. If he had hit seven more home runs, he’d probably be in. But as it stands now, he likely won’t ever make it.
36. Dick Allen, 1B, 1963-1977
Stats: .292/.378/.534, 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, 156 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 58.7 WAR, 32.9 WAA, 52.3 JAWS, 5.44 WAR/162
Bill James once called Dick Allen the second-most controversial player in baseball history (trailing just Rogers Hornsby). Another time James said no player did more to cost his team a chance to win than Allen. While it’s true that there are plenty of racial-infused and off-the-field controversies that surrounded Dick Allen, his on-field accomplishments speak for themselves.
He could flat out hit the ball, leading the league in home runs twice, slugging percentage three times, and OPS four times. His 156 lifetime OPS+, which factors in ballpark conditions and the extreme pitching era in which Allen played the duration of his career, sees him as a better all-around hitter than notable superstars like Joe DiMaggio, Albert Pujols, Hank Aaron, and Willie Mays.
Allen’s career was shorter than you’d like for a Hall of Famer. He finished with 1,848 hits, and while no one would elect someone in on the basis of reaching 2,000 hits, it’s worth noting that no Hall of Famer whose career started after 1950 has finished with under 2,000 hits. Allen also had atrocious defensive metrics (-118 defensive runs saved, four seasons leading the league in errors at multiple positions). His best bet is sneaking in via a future Golden Days Committee.
35. Al Spalding, SP, 1871-1878
Stats: 252-65, 2.13 ERA, 2,886.1 IP, 248 K, 1.193 WHIP, 132 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 60.3 WAR, 37.2 WAA, 60.4 JAWS
To be fair, Al Spalding is in the Hall of Fame – but he made it as a pioneer/executive, and not for what he did as a player, which is disgraceful. Spalding was the dominant pitcher of the 1870s. He led all pitchers in wins each of his first six years, at one point going 54-5 with a 1.59 ERA in a season. Another time he led all pitchers in innings and all batters in plate appearances – in the same season.
It was a different game back then. There weren’t really home runs or walks or strikeouts, meaning balls were always in play. Pitchers pitched complete games regularly – Spalding completed 86 percent of his starts in his career. One year, he notched 617.1 innings and 65 complete games.
Comparing Spalding to an era now is pretty difficult to do. They didn’t have sabermetrics until this century, let alone the 1870s, but in backdated metrics, Spalding rates very well with two 10 WAR seasons and two years leading all pitchers in the stat. He was even a terrific hitter, batting .313 with a 116 OPS+ and playing everywhere in the field – outfield, first base, second base, and third base as well as pitcher.
34. Andruw Jones, CF, 1996-2012
Stats: .254/.337/.486, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 111 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 62.7 WAR, 35.9 WAA, 54.6 JAWS, 4.63 WAR/162
By age 30, Andruw Jones was an all-time great in the making, fresh off 10 consecutive seasons of 25+ home runs and 10 Gold Gloves in center field where he was well on his way to being the best defender since Willie Mays. After age 30? Jones batted .210, accumulating just 1.7 WAR and negative defensive metrics for four different teams. It’s one of the more shocking post-30 declines of any great baseball player.
It remains to be seen if his peak will be enough to get him in Cooperstown. He hit over 400 home runs, stole 152 bases, and registered more defensive runs saved (+239) than any outfielder in the history of major league baseball. He also provided one of the more memorable postseason moments in history, homering in his first two October at-bats as just a 19-year-old.
Despite that, Jones received just 7.3 percent of the votes in his first year on the ballot (although he’s since risen to just over one-third). It may be the early career decline, the low batting average, or the domestic violence incident, but either way, Jones may need the Veterans Committee if he wants to get in to Cooperstown.
33. Kevin Brown, SP, 1986-2005
Stats: 211-144, 3.28 ERA, 3,256.1 IP, 2,397 K, 1.222 WHIP, 127 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 67.8 WAR, 39.7 WAA, 56.5 JAWS
There’s this perception that Kevin Brown was a bust after signing the first $100-plus million contract in baseball history. And while he struggled with injuries over the back end of the deal, he still won 72 games and posted a higher ERA+ (130) after signing the deal than before (125). Brown won a pair of ERA titles in his career, led the NL in WHIP twice, won over 200 games, and threw a no-hitter.
It’s what happened in the latter part of his career that ultimately cost him the Hall of Fame. Brown dealt with frequent temper tantrums, once injuring his hand after punching a wall. He was named in the Mitchell Report as a likely PED user. And he was shelled in a crucial Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS start for the Yankees. It would be a major surprise to ever see him inducted into the Hall of Fame.
32. Mookie Betts, RF, 2014-Active
Stats: .296/.373/.518, 178 HR, 567 RBI, 134 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 50.0 WAR, 35.9 WAA, 48.8 JAWS, 8.34 WAR/162
The only reason Mookie Betts hasn’t been viewed as the best player in baseball over the last decade is Mike Trout. But Betts has still accomplished a ridiculous amount by age 28, already winning an AL MVP, five Gold Gloves, a batting title, and a World Series ring with two different franchises. Betts’ 10.7 WAR in 2018 is actually a greater total than Trout has ever put up in a single season.
Betts’ power/speed ability make him a perennial 30/30 threat. If we look at his production from a sabermetric standpoint, he’s one of 25 players to accumulate 50 WAR and 35 WAA through his age-28 season. The day he suits up for a game in his 10th season and thus becomes Hall of Fame eligible, he’s a lock. By the time he retires, he may be considered a top 25 player of all-time.
31. Buster Posey, C, 2009-2021
Stats: .302/.372/.460, 158 HR, 729 RBI, 129 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 44.9 WAR, 27.1 WAA, 40.7 JAWS, 5.31 WAR/162
Just five seasons into his major league career, Buster Posey had already accomplished more than some Hall of Fame catchers. He won the NL Rookie of the Year, returned from a gruesome leg injury to win league MVP in 2012, won a batting title, and led the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles.
Posey’s counting numbers are low; his 4,970 career at-bats are the ninth-fewest of any Hall of Fame position player, and almost 2,000 less than Larry Walker’s 6,907, which is the fewest by any player to play after 1960.
Catchers also have to be viewed differently. The position is simply too demanding to expect every HOF catcher to accumulate Ivan Rodriguez’s 10,270 plate appearances. Posey’s accolades compare very favorably to opposing Hall of Fame catchers. His 129 OPS+ is higher than any catcher ever except Mike Piazza and he was the best player on a mini-dynasty. Even with his early retirement, he should be considered a good bet to one day make Cooperstown.
30. Todd Helton, 1B, 1997-2013
Stats: .316/.414/.460, 369 HR, 1,406 RBI, 133 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 61.8 WAR, 33.3 WAA, 54.2 JAWS, 4.46 WAR/162
People are inherently suspicious of players who spent the bulk of their playing days in the steroid era, and it’s been reflected come Hall of Fame voting time. Larry Walker took over a decade to get enshrined, and Todd Helton has barely topped 50 percent of the votes in four attempts so far.
There’s no denying the inflated atmosphere of Coors Field significantly aided Helton’s performance at the plate. He was a .345/.441/.607 career hitter at home and .287/.386/.469 on the road. That’s Jimmie Foxx at home and Kevin Youkilis on the road.
The Coors Field absolutely has to be taken into effect; that being said, Helton still finished with a 133 OPS+ (which factors in ballpark conditions) as well as nearly 600 doubles and over 350 home runs. He had exceptional plate discipline, was a good fielder at first base (three Gold Gloves), and batted .333/.412/.467 in his lone World Series trip. Expect Helton to get the nod to Cooperstown within the next several years.
29. Bobby Grich, 2B, 1970-1986
Stats: .266/.371/.424, 224 HR, 864 RBI, 125 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 71.0 WAR, 43.5 WAA, 58.7 JAWS, 5.73 WAR/162
If a player does all the little things right but no one noticed it when he was playing, does it still count? When he retired, Bobby Grich’s .266 batting average or zero finishes in the top five in MVP voting didn’t get him more than 2.6 percent of the votes on the Hall of Fame ballot, actually dropping him off entirely after just one year. It didn’t help the fact that the previous two classes included Joe Morgan and Rod Carew, two all-time greats at the position.
And then sabermetrics came out in the 2000s, and people started to recognize that Grich was a much better player than they realized. His 125 OPS+ is phenomenal for a second baseman, due to a high walk and HBP total. He was a premium defender at a key defensive position, and he stacks up incredibly well on the all-time WAR/WAA leaderboards.
By WAR’s standards, Grich’s 71.0 is one of the best ever for a non-Hall of Famer, and by Wins Above Average, Grich’s 43.5 is the 48th best total of any position player. He’s one of only seven second basemen ever with at least six seasons of 6.0 WAR.
It’s reasonable to conclude that Grich could one day get in via the 2023 or 2025 Modern Baseball ballots, although he’s also battling longtime second baseman Lou Whitaker (of the same era); for votes.
28. Bill Dahlen, SS, 1891-1911
Stats: .272/.358/.382, 84 HR, 1,234 RBI, 110 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 75.2 WAR, 39.3 WAA, 57.7 JAWS, 5.00 WAR/162
Strictly by WAR, Bill Dahlen is the highest-ranking retired non-Hall of Famer who has not been banned indefinitely (Pete Rose) or kept out for PED-related reasons. It took a lot of newfound sabermetrics to uncover Dahlen’s greatness, but the bottom line is that he cleared a mark (75 WAR) that is typically associated with first-ballot Hall of Famers.
Dahlen’s raw numbers don’t stick out on paper – he’s a .272 career hitter with 84 home runs and a lower slugging percentage (.384) than all but 18 HOF position players. But we have to remember the era in which he played and the longevity of his career. Dahlen collected almost 2,500 hits, stole over 500 bases, got hit by a ton of pitches, and once recorded a 42-game hitting streak.
Defensively, he led all shortstops in range factor per game on four occasions and still ranks 11th all-time in defensive WAR (28.5). The accumulation of all his attributes should be enough to put him in the Hall of Fame; after missing it by just two votes via the Veterans Committee in 2013, he remains one of the most qualified non-inductees.
27. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, 1986-2005
Stats: .288/.371/.515, 569 HR, 1,835 RBI, 132 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 71.9 WAR, 36.6 WAA, 59.5 JAWS, 5.05 WAR/162
Entering his age-30 season, Rafael Palmeiro was a very good offensive player, a two-time All-Star with 155 home runs accumulated on three different teams. After age 30? Palmeiro went on a PED-aided tear, racking up 414 home runs and 1,233 RBIs, in the process posting a 38/104 line for eight consecutive years.
Just six players in MLB history have accumulated 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Palmeiro became the final member of that club, rapping his 3,000th hit on July 15, 2005, then was suspended for anabolic steroids two weeks later. After the PED suspension, being named in The Mitchell Report, and then that awkward congressional hearing, it’s safe to say Palmeiro won’t ever make the Hall.
26. Robinson Cano, 2B, 2005-Active
Stats: .303/.352/.492, 334 HR, 1,302 RBI, 126 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 69.6 WAR, 36.6 WAA, 59.5 JAWS, 5.05 WAR/162
Hall of Fame voters are going to have an interesting decision to make with Robinson Cano. He’s collected over 2,600 hits and nearly 600 doubles in his career, led the 2010s in hits (1,695), and won a ring. Even if his .302 batting average drops below .300 in his pursuit of 3,000 hits, that’s an all-time offensive resume for a second baseman.
But Cano has been suspended twice for PEDs – for 80 games in 2018 for a medication called furosemide and for the entire 162-game season in 2021 for stanozolol. The first suspension would likely have been overlooked; it was a treatment mainly used for high blood pressure, but the second is a commonly-known anabolic steroid, aka a performance-enhancing drug.
It’s not a dealbreaker for Cano’s HOF chances, but it’s a major red flag. Manny Ramirez is on par with Cano in terms of both career WAR and number of PED suspensions, and he can’t even get to 30 percent of the vote. The best bet for Cano is he somehow earns some good graces over the remaining two years of his $240 million contract.
25. Scott Rolen, 3B, 1996-2012
Stats: .281/.364/.490, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 122 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 70.1 WAR, 44.0 WAA, 56.9 JAWS, 5.57 WAR/162
Scott Rolen had an uphill battle to reach the Hall of Fame, largely due to a negative reputation, zero seasons leading the league in any major offensive statistic, and only one finish in the top-10 in MVP voting. Additionally, much of his sabermetric value is derived from years of sustained defensive excellence, and voters tend to not look as favorably on that as gaudy eye-popping home run totals. But he’s seen a steady climb in recent years, jumping from 10 percent in 2018 to 63 percent this year.
Will 2023 be the year Scott Rolen gets his spot in Cooperstown?#MLBNow | @scottbraun | @jay_jaffe | @Plakata pic.twitter.com/Ak6O2eLFCg
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) January 27, 2022
As a player, Rolen averaged 28 home runs, 102 RBIs, 11 stolen bases, and a 133 OPS+ over an eight-year span. He won eight Gold Gloves and registered a ridiculous +175 defensive runs saved during his career. Just 14 third basemen have been voted into Cooperstown, but Rolen would rank squarely in the middle of the pack from both a WAR/WAA standpoint, meaning his HOF case is certainly there.
24. Joe Mauer, C, 2004-2018
Stats: .306/.388/.439, 143 HR, 923 RBI, 124 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 55.2 WAR, 27.5 WAA, 47.1 JAWS, 4.81 WAR/162
To date, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Chipper Jones are the only former No. 1 overall draft picks to make the Baseball Hall of Fame. Joe Mauer will be the third.
Mike Piazza has always held the distinction of being the greatest offensive catcher in baseball history, but Mauer was every bit his equal for a period of time. Mauer is the only catcher ever to win three batting titles. His .365 batting average in 2009 is a single-season record for the position. And he was terrific behind the plate, winning three Gold Gloves.
Mauer’s career was short by Hall of Fame standards, but he still accumulated enough value to rank above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame catcher. Mauer’s 55.2 WAR and 47.1 JAWS are both above the average mark. Add in a league MVP, and he should make it to Cooperstown by year one or two.
23. Joey Votto, 1B, 2007-Active
Stats: .302/.416/.520, 331 HR, 1,065 RBI, 148 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 64.6 WAR, 39.6 WAA, 55.6 JAWS, 5.49 WAR/162
Joey Votto’s greatest claim to fame is simply being an on-base machine. He’s led the National League in on-base percentage seven times and walks five times, and as it currently stands, his .417 lifetime OBP is his best case for making the Hall of Fame. Even if his production tails off as he finishes out his 10-year contract, finishing with that number over .400 will go a long way for his Cooperstown case.
Votto’s power numbers are lower than you’d expect for a first baseman with a HOF case. Among enshrined first baseman whose careers started after 1950, no Hall of Fame first baseman has fewer home runs than Orlando Cepeda/Tony Perez (379) or RBIs than Cepeda (1,365). That doesn’t mean Votto has to hit those milestones to be a Hall of Famer, but those do stand as good barometers for measurement.
Votto’s MVP will help his case, as will solid sabermetrics (63.5 WAR, +51 fielding runs saved). It could take Votto a few tries, but he should make it eventually.
22. Chase Utley, 2B, 2003-2018
Stats: .275/.358/.465, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 117 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 64.5 WAR, 40.9 WAA, 57.4 JAWS, 5.57 WAR/162
Few players in history emerged more as sabermetrics darlings than Chase Utley, whose career was short but highly effective from every advanced stat in which baseball players are evaluated. Utley didn’t make his debut until age 24, didn’t become a full-time starter until he was 26, and spent the last half of his career playing through debilitating knee injuries.
Get past the low hit total – Utley bled every ounce of his game into his 1,937 games, accumulating 64.5 WAR and 40.9 WAA, the second stat of which factors in positional value and ranks Utley higher than 72.3 percent of Hall of Fame position players. Utley was a power/speed guy who accumulated a ton of hit by pitches (204; eighth-most all-time) and recorded the highest career stolen base percentage (87.5) of any player with 100+ steals.
Defensively, Utley was a whiz in the field, generating +131 runs above average at second base. No one in baseball history has ever turned in as much well-rounded production as Utley, who is the only player ever to accumulate 150 runs above average as a hitter, 100 as a fielder, 40 as a baserunner, and 20 by avoiding DPs. Whether or not he makes it will be a fascinating case study of traditional statistics vs. sabermetrics.
21. Lou Whitaker, 2B, 1977-1995
Stats: .276/.363/.426, 244 HR, 1,084 RBI, 117 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 75.1 WAR, 42.7 WAA, 57.7 JAWS, 5.09 WAR/162
Not every Hall of Fame case can be as shiny as 500 home runs or 300 wins, but you’d think the Hall of Fame welcoming in Alan Trammell would bode well for his longtime middle infield partner, Lou Whitaker.
Whitaker’s traditional counting stats are impressive but not flashy – 2,369 hits, 244 home runs, and 143 steals. Factor in that he did this as a multi-Gold Glove-winning second baseman, and it becomes more significant, despite a light total on All-Star appearances (5) and seasons earning MVP votes (1).
By sabermetric standards, he’s extremely valuable. His 75.1 WAR, 42.7 WAA, and 57.7 JAWS are all above the standard for the average Hall of Fame second baseman. Embarrassingly enough, Whitaker was voted in on just 2.9 percent of ballots in 2001, meaning he’ll have to make it via one of the Modern Era committees that next votes in 2023. He’ll make it eventually, but it’s a wait that will be too long.
20. Mark McGwire, 1B, 1986-2001
Stats: .263/.394/.588, 583 HR, 1,414 RBI, 163 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 62.2 WAR, 37.1 WAA, 52.0 JAWS, 5.38 WAR/162
It’s difficult to see the public ever truly forgiving Mark McGwire for his role in the steroid scandal, but his performance in the great home run chase of 1998 was one of baseball’s most exhilarating moments. No one hit home runs like McGwire, whose rate of a home run every 10.61 at-bats still stands as the all-time major league record.
McGwire hit 30 home runs 11 times, 50 home runs a record four times, and led the majors five times. He finished with an absurd 163 OPS+, which is the highest career mark by a retired right-handed hitter whose career started after 1950. Steroids or no steroids, he’s one of the most dominant hitters of all-time.
19. Johan Santana, SP, 2000-2012
Stats: 139-78, 3.20 ERA, 2,025.2 IP, 1,988 K, 1.132 WHIP, 136 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 51.7 WAR, 33.4 WAA, 45.0 JAWS
Outside of PED users and the unique case of Curt Schilling, no eligible non-Hall of Fame pitcher has a better Cooperstown case than Johan Santana. And not only is Santana not enshrined, he barely got any support, receiving just 2.4 percent of the vote before falling off the ballot in 2018. It’s an absolute disgrace that this generation’s Sandy Koufax garnered so little respect from the voters come election time.
Santana’s career accomplishments are staggering for such a brief peak. He was a two-time Cy Young winner, finished in the top seven in six straight seasons, won three ERA titles, and led the league in WHIP for four consecutive years. Roy Halladay was the best pitcher for a decade but Santana was the best pitcher for half a decade.
Santana signed one of the richest contacts in baseball history when he left Minnesota for the New York Mets. He had brief stints of excellence, winning an ERA title (giving him titles in both leagues), throwing a no-hitter, and going 46-34 with a 3.18 ERA before injuries derailed his career. Santana’s 139 wins would represent the fewest of any starting pitcher in Cooperstown, and that’s why it’s doubtful even the Veterans Committee will ever elect him.
18. CC Sabathia, SP, 2001-2019
Stats: 251-161, 3.74 ERA, 3,577.1 IP, 3,093 K, 1.259 WHIP, 116 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 62.6 WAR, 29.1 WAA, 52.0 JAWS
There aren’t too many pitchers like CC Sabathia, a 6’6”, 300-foot mountain of a man who pitched over 3,500 innings across 19 seasons. Sabathia once signed the largest contract in professional baseball history for a pitcher (seven years, $161 million) and was the ace of the 2009 Yankees team that won the World Series in his first year.
Sabathia won one Cy Young in his career but was top five in the voting for five consecutive years. He’s the only pitcher that debuted in the 21st century to win over 250 games, and he’s one of 18 pitchers to strike out over 3,000 batters. No retired pitcher with 3,000 strikeouts has missed the Hall (outside of Roger Clemens, who is a unique case).
Sabathia’s 62.6 WAR and 29.1 WAA compare to that of Juan Marichal or Don Drysdale, both of whom are in the Hall of Fame. Sabathia’s 3.74 career ERA would immediately become one of the highest marks of any enshrined pitcher, but he also pitched in the American League during the 2000s. A 116 career ERA+ (and 140 over his seven-year peak) should be enough to garner him induction, even if it isn’t on the first ballot.
17. Manny Ramirez, LF, 1993-2011
Stats: .312/.411/.585, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 154 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 69.3 WAR, 35.7 WAA, 50.9 JAWS, 4.63 WAR/162
“Manny being Manny” was a phrase often used to describe the carelessness in which Manny Ramirez ran the bases and played the field. It shouldn’t deduct from what he did as a hitter though, because as an offensive player, Manny just destroyed baseballs for nearly two decades.
Manny is eighth all-time in career slugging percentage, 15th in home runs, and 19th in RBIs. He led the AL in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS three times each, finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for eight straight seasons, and won the 2004 World Series MVP for the Boston Red Sox.
Manny couldn’t play the field, and the numbers reflect that – he cost his team 129 runs with his lackadaisical defense, and if he makes the Hall of Fame, that will become the second-worst total of any HOFer. But once the Hall starts opening its doors to steroid-convicted players, Manny should be near the top of the list of invitees.
16. Carlos Beltran, CF, 1998-2017
Stats: .279/.350/.486, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 119 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 70.1 WAR, 34.4 WAA, 57.2 JAWS, 4.39 WAR/162
For 20 years, Carlos Beltran built a Hall of Fame career one solid season after another, never winning an MVP but consistently ranking among the game’s best all-around players. And then cheating allegations emerged from the 2017 Houston Astors with Beltran reportedly as the ringleader, leading him to resign his position as manager of the New York Mets without ever having managed a game for the team.
It was a disgraceful way for a future Hall of Famer to (maybe) finish his career in the sport, and it could cost him the Hall of Fame.
On the field, Beltran hit 435 home runs and stole 312 bases, making him one of five players in history in the 400/300 club. He stole bases at an 86.4 percent clip, the third-best rate of all-time. His counting stats are impressive – not just the home runs and steals but also the 2,735 hits, 565 doubles, and over 1,500 runs scored and RBIs.
Beltran never won an MVP or even finished in the top three and while he was a dominant postseason performer for the 2004 Houston Astros (eight home runs and six steals in 12 games), his lasting playoff image may be looking at a called strike three from Adam Wainwright to end the 2006 NLCS.
15. Zack Greinke, SP, 2004-Active
Stats: 219-132, 3.41 ERA, 3,110 IP, 2,809 K, 1.159 WHIP, 123 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 73.1 WAR, 46.1 WAA, 60.6 JAWS
The most incredible aspect of Zack Greinke’s underrated career is that he’s pitched for six different teams and he’s been excellent for all of them. You almost never see that for a Hall of Fame caliber talent, and while it looked for awhile like Greinke was a step under Cooperstown, at this point, he should be a shoo-in when he retires. That’s not bad for a guy who nearly retired a year into his career due to depression/anxiety issues.
Greinke is over 200 wins and should cruise past 3,000 strikeouts by the time he’s done. He won a Cy Young for the 2009 Kansas City Royals and nearly won another six years later with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s won two ERA titles and they’ve been absolutely dominant campaigns – a 2.16 ERA in ’09 and a 1.66 ERA in ’15.
In addition, he’s won six Gold Gloves, six Silver Sluggers, and pitched in two World Series. Greinke has even aged very well, reinventing himself as a groundball pitcher after six seasons of 200+ strikeouts.
14. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, 2003-Active
Stats: .311/.388/.534, 499 HR, 1,780 RBI, 145 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 68.7 WAR, 32.0 WAA, 56.8 JAWS, 4.30 WAR/162
As a pure hitter, Miguel Cabrera was second-best only to Albert Pujols in the post-Barry Bonds generation. Cabrera led the league in home runs twice, won four batting titles in a five-year span, and won possibly the last Triple Crown (.330/44/139 in 2012) we’ll ever see.
Clearing both the 500 home run and 3,000 hit club weren’t necessary for Cabrera to make the Hall, but they only further cement his case. He’s a two-time AL MVP, 11-time All-Star, and a World Series champion from his days with the Florida Marlins.
Cabrera’s numbers have taken a hit as he plays out his lengthy contract extension; he’s accumulated -1.1 WAR and -7.9 WAA since 2017 while being relegated to DH. Still, barring any unexpected connection to PED usage, Cabrera will cruise into Cooperstown when he eventually retires.
13. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 2001-2019
Stats: .311/.355/.402, 117 HR, 780 RBI, 107 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 60.0 WAR, 24.5 WAA, 51.9 JAWS, 3.66 WAR/162
One of the most unique hitters in baseball history, Ichiro – who was always known just by his first name – was blessed with exceptional bat control. Despite not coming over from Japan until he was 27 years old, Ichiro began his major league career with 10 consecutive 200-hit seasons, leading the majors seven times and setting a single-season record with 262 in 2004.
Ichiro was just the second-ever player to win league MVP as a rookie, and he combined exceptional defense (10 Gold Gloves and a cannon of a throwing arm) with terrific speed (509 steals) and an uncanny ability to avoid double plays. If you take his days in the Japan Pacific League, Ichiro finished his career with more professional hits (4,389) than Pete Rose.
A lack of power and a low walk rate keeps Ichiro from ranking higher. Despite batting .350 four times, he reached a .400 OBP just once; his .311 batting average leads to a lifetime OPS+ just seven percent better than league average. For the last nine years of his career, Ichiro was worth -6.2 wins above average as an overall player. Still, given his popularity and flashiness, there’s a realistic chance he earns 100 percent of the votes come Hall of Fame time.
12. Max Scherzer, SP, 2008-Active
Stats: 190-97, 3.16 ERA, 2,536.2 IP, 3,020 K, 1.084 WHIP, 134 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 67.2 WAR, 45.5 WAA, 57.7 JAWS
Check out the comparisons between Max Scherzer and Hall of Fame legend Sandy Koufax. They’re closer than you think:
Scherzer: 190-97 (.662), 134 ERA+, 2,536.2 IP, 1.084 WHIP, 3x Cy Young, 4x wins leader, 3x strikeouts leader, 5x WHIP leader, 2 no-hitters
Koufax: 165-87 (.655), 131 ERA+, 2,324 IP, 1.106 WHIP, 3x Cy Young, 3x wins leader, 4x strikeouts leader, 4x WHIP leader, 4 no-hitters
Scherzer has a record four seasons with both 250+ strikeouts and a WHIP under 1.000. He’s struck out 20 batters in a game. He’s come within an elbow of a perfect game and thrown three immaculate innings.
Scherzer doesn’t have Koufax’s legendary postseason dominance, although he went 3-0 in five starts in October 2019 and helped the Washington Nationals secure their first World Series championship. It’s hard to believe Scherzer has blown away the value of a $210 million contract, but he’s legitimately exceeded all possible expectations. Even at age
11. Justin Verlander, SP, 2005-Active
Stats: 226-129, 3.33 ERA, 2,988 IP, 3,013 K, 1.134 WHIP, 129 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 71.8 WAR, 44.0 WAA, 60.9 JAWS
Midway through the 2017 season, Justin Verlander appeared to have entered the decline phase of his career and was likely a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. Following an unprecedented rejuvenation and multi-year run of dominance, Verlander is now locked in as a slam dunk lock to one day make Cooperstown and he has a case as one of the 15 best pitchers ever.
Verlander’s career accolades are quite impressive. He’s won multiple Cy Youngs, finished second on three other occasions, and he’s the only American League starting pitcher in the last 35 years to have won league MVP. He’s led the entire major leagues in wins three times. He’s a five-time AL strikeout leader. He seems to get better with age, as he’s fresh off leading the majors in WHIP each of the last two seasons. And he’s thrown not one, not two, but three no-hitters.
The glaring blemish on Verlander’s resume is the postseason. Even with winning ALCS MVP and helping Houston win the 2017 World Series, Verlander’s numbers in the World Series are frightening. He’s never won a start, going 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA. If he can bring Houston back to the World Series and add a Fall Classic MVP to his list of achievements, he may move into the top 10 on this list.
10. Curt Schilling, SP, 1988-2007
Stats: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3,261 IP, 3,116 K, 1.137 WHIP, 127 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 79.5 WAR, 52.9 WAA, 64.0 JAWS
At this point, I don’t know if Curt Schilling will ever actually make the Hall of Fame. Joking about lynching sportswriters and then asking to be removed from the ballot isn’t the way to go. At this point, he will need a Veterans Committee to vote him in, which is a shame because his on-field qualifications are superb.
Schilling struck out 300 batters in consecutive seasons with the Phillies in the late ‘90s. Only Randy Johnson kept Schilling from winning two straight Cy Young awards for the 2001-’02 Arizona Diamondbacks. And he led the AL with 21 wins in his first year with Boston in 2004. Schilling’s impeccable control gave him one of the greatest career K:BB ratios of all-time – he’s officially seventh on the career list but first among retired modern starters. His 33 walks in 2002 are the fewest ever for a player with 300 strikeouts in a season.
But it’s what Schilling did in the postseason that makes him a legend. He was the NLCS MVP for the ’93 Phillies. He was unhittable for the 2001 world champion D-Backs, allowing a 1.12 ERA in six starts in the postseason and sharing World Series MVP honors with Johnson. And then he posted a 0.79 ERA in his two World Series starts for the 2004 and 2007 champion Red Sox (one of which is now known as the famous “Bloody Sock” game). He’s 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in his postseason career.
Once Hall of Fame voters can get past his outspoken nature, he will join the best of the best in Cooperstown.
9. Joe Jackson, RF, 1908-1920
Stats: .356/.423/.517, 54 HR, 792 RBI, 170 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 62.2 WAR, 40.2 WAA, 57.4 JAWS, 7.56 WAR/162
Shoeless Joe Jackson was famously banned for life from major league baseball after his supposed role in fixing the 1920 World Series; while no one really knows his actual involvement, it prevented him from ever earning much-deserved enshrinement in Cooperstown.
To say Jackson’s play warranted inclusion is an understatement. He could hit a baseball as well as all but about five to seven men who ever played baseball. Jackson’s lifetime .356 batting average is the third-best mark ever, although he never won a batting title due to Ty Cobb. Jackson also had power, leading the AL in triples three times and finishing with a career OPS+ of 170, the ninth-best mark ever.
8. Adrian Beltre, 3B, 1998-2018
Stats: .286/.339/.480, 477 HR, 1,707 RBI, 116 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 93.5 WAR, 52.6 WAA, 71.1 JAWS, 5.16 WAR/162
Like a fine wine, Adrian Beltre got significantly better with age. He was a .270/.325/.453 career hitter (105 OPS+) with 44.6 career WAR through age 30 – with much of his value coming from what looked like a fluke 2004 season (48 HR, 9.2 WAR).
Then he put together a back nine performance that solidified his Hall of Fame chances; Beltre batted .307/.358/.514 (130 OPS+) with 48.9 WAR after the age of 31. That’s the 14th most WAR of any player age 31 and older, and Beltre cruised past significant HOF milestones like 3,000 hits and 600 doubles while just missing 500 home runs.
In the field, Beltre didn’t make the highlight plays of Brooks Robinson, but he was a Gold Glove performer for 20 years in a row. Beltre registered 216 career defensive runs above average, the fifth-best total ever (trailing just Robinson, Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith, and Andruw Jones). Among players whose careers started in the modern era (post-1900), Beltre is one of two to accumulate 70+ offensive WAR and 20+ defensive WAR. You don’t keep a guy like that out of the Hall of Fame.
7. Pete Rose, 1B, 1963-1986
Stats: .303/.375/.439, 160 HR, 1,314 RBI, 118 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 79.6 WAR, 29.0 WAA, 62.4 JAWS, 3.62 WAR/162
Pete Rose will never make the Baseball Hall of Fame because he broke the cardinal rule of baseball. But as a player? He’s the all-time hit king (4,256). He’s also first in games played (3,562), at-bats (14,053), singles (3,215), and times on base (5,929), plus second in doubles (746), sixth in runs scored (2,165), and 14th in walks (1,566).
Rose played every day and did it well. He batted .300 15 times and led the league in a boatload of statistics, including three batting titles. In the field, he played 500+ games at five different positions and won a pair of Gold Gloves. He was a three-time World Series champion, a regular season MVP, and a World Series MVP.
Playing well past his prime in the pursuit of the career hit record didn’t help his sabermetrics. In his final seven seasons, he was a .274/.354/.333 hitter (92 OPS+), accumulating -1.2 WAR, -13.6 WAA, and -41 defensive runs saved. Still, what he accomplished for a near 20-year prime made him an all-time great.
6. Clayton Kershaw, SP, 2008-Active
Stats: 185-84, 2.49 ERA, 2,454.1 IP, 2,670 K, 1.004 WHIP, 155 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 71.9 WAR, 52.2 WAA, 60.8 JAWS
Pitch for pitch, Clayton Kershaw is the greatest pitcher of this generation and one of the five or so greatest to have ever lived. It’s much harder to excel in the 30-team era with integrated players than the Dead Ball Era of the 1900s and 1910s, and Kershaw’s accolades are simply astounding.
He’s won three Cy Youngs, finished second two other times, and earned top-five votes in seven straight seasons. He was the 2014 NL MVP, becoming the first National League pitcher to earn that award in nearly 50 years. He’s won an absurd five ERA titles, led the league in WHIP four straight years, won a pitching triple crown, thrown a no-hitter, and he owns the highest career ERA+ of any starting pitcher of all-time.
After years of postseason struggles (notably the 2017 and 2018 World Series), Kershaw finally completed his resume, capturing the all-elusive world championship ring that had eluded him for over a decade. If 2021 was the last pitch he ever throws for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he’s still ingrained himself as an easy first ballot Hall of Famer.
5. Mike Trout, CF, 2011-Active
Stats: .305/.419/.583, 310 HR, 816 RBI, 176 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 76.1 WAR, 57.3 WAA, 70.6 JAWS, 9.58 WAR/162
Just a decade into his playing days, Mike Trout has already accomplished more than most upper-tier Hall of Famers accomplish in their entire career. He’s a multi-dimensional five-tool superstar who quite literally has been the best player in baseball every year since 2012.
The fact that Trout has played in the sabermetrics era only gives a greater appreciation of his dominance. He’s won three AL MVP awards, finished runner-up four more times, and never finished outside the top five in a full season. By WAR, he was the AL’s best position player five consecutive seasons.
A .305/.419/.583 career hitter, Trout’s 176 career OPS+ (which factors in era and ballpark factors) is the fifth-best total of all-time, trailing Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Lou Gehrig. Even if injuries begin to take their toll on Trout earlier than expected, he will still likely go down as one of the 20 best players of all-time.
4. Albert Pujols, 1B, 2001-Active
Stats: .297/.375/.544, 679 HR, 2,150 RBI, 144 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 99.6 WAR, 59.4 WAA, 80.6 JAWS, 5.43 WAR/162
Here’s to hoping history remembers Albert Pujols for the first half of his career and not the last. The Pujols from 2001 to 2011 batted a ridiculous .328/.420/617 (170 OPS+) with 445 home runs and 86.6 WAR for the St. Louis Cardinals. No one has ever hit more home runs or accumulated more WAR in a player’s first 11 seasons.
Then the Pujols from 2012 to 2021 batted just .256/.311/.448 (108 OPS+) with 222 home runs and 12.9 WAR, vastly underperforming a massive $240 million contract in free agency, even getting released from the Los Angeles Angels with half a season left.
Still, Pujols’ peak puts him in the discussion with the greatest right-handed power hitters of all-time. He won three NL MVP awards, finished second three other times, and won a decade Triple Crown, leading the National League in home runs, RBIs, and batting average for the 2000s. According to WAR, Pujols was the best player in the entire NL for five straight years (’05-’09).
Factor in 116 steals, a tremendous +138 defensive runs saved, and two World Series rings, and Pujols has a legitimate case as the second-best first basemen of all-time behind Lou Gehrig.
3. Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B, 1994-2016
Stats: .295/.380/.550, 696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 140 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 117.5 WAR, 75.8 WAA, 90.9 JAWS, 6.85 WAR/162
We’ve reached the heavy steroid-aided part of the article. Each of the top three players on this list is an absolute all-timer yet each has been denied the Hall of Fame countless times for PED usage. While I don’t condone steroid usage, I acknowledge that 1) cheating has been a part of the game for 150 years 2) many, many players took performance-enhancing substances and 3) these players would have been first-ballot Hall of Famers without the extra help.
Alex Rodriguez in particular is one of the finest ballplayers ever created. He was the No. 1 overall pick straight out of high school, signed a lucrative $252 million dollar deal in free agency, and averaged 41 home runs, 20 steals, and 7.3 WAR over a 15-year span. Without being forced into an early retirement, he would have cleared the 700-home run mark.
Three times A-Rod was voted the AL MVP but a full six times he led all American League position players in WAR and nine times he led the league in offensive WAR. His postseason struggles are well-documented (remember when Joe Torre dropped him to eighth in the lineup?), but still, how about this? A-Rod’s .822 career October OPS and +1.00 WPA are right in line with Derek Jeter’s .838 and -0.01 marks.
2. Roger Clemens, SP, 1984-2007
Stats: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 5,217.2 IP, 4,672 K, 1.173 WHIP, 143 ERA+
Sabermetrics: 139.2 WAR, 94.5 WAA, 102.6 JAWS
In terms of sheer accomplishments on the pitching mound, there aren’t many things Roger Clemens hasn’t done. In an admittedly steroid-aided career, he’s won an unprecedented seven Cy Young awards, finished in the top three on three other occasions, and won ERA titles nearly 20 years apart.
He went 24-4 and won an AL MVP in 1986. He won consecutive Cy Youngs in the ‘80s, then again in the ‘90s, and there’s hardly a pitching stat he hasn’t led the league in. He won his seventh Cy Young as a 42-year-old in his first year in the National League in 2004, turned around the next year and posted a microscopic 1.87 ERA in 32 starts at age 43.
Clemens was a power pitcher, throwing in the upper nineties in his prime. He was the first pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a nine-inning game, and he did it a full decade apart. Five times he led the league in strikeouts, and his career total of 4,672 ranks third all-time. It took some time for Clemens to win his first World Series but then he played a major role for the 1999-2000 New York Yankees that won back-to-back titles, and he’s 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in eight starts in his World Series career.
1. Barry Bonds, LF, 1986-2007
Stats: .298/.444/.607, 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 182 OPS+
Sabermetrics: 162.7 WAR, 123.8 WAA, 117.7 JAWS, 8.83 WAR/162
Can you have it both ways? Can you believe Barry Bonds disgraced the game by using performance-enhancing drugs but can you also believe that Barry Bonds would have made the Hall of Fame without PEDs and that realistically speaking, everyone used illegal drugs during the late ‘90s/early ‘00s?
Bonds wasn’t just dominant; he’s essentially in a class of his own. He’s the all-time home run champ in a single season (73) and career (762), but also first in career walks (2,558) and position player WAR (162.7), second in extra-base hits (1,440), third in runs scored (2,227), fourth in OPS+ (182), and sixth in RBIs (1,996). He won seven NL MVP awards but remarkably enough, led the league in WAR among position players 11 times.
There was really nothing Bonds couldn’t do. He was an eight-time Gold Glover, finishing with the most career defensive runs saved (+184) of any left fielder ever. He’s the only member of the 400 HR/400 SB club, and he took it one step higher by going 500/500. Over a four-year span from 2001-2004, Bonds swept the MVP awards, batting .349/.559/.809 (256 OPS+) with nearly as many home runs (209) as strikeouts (239) – and he did that from age 37-40.
The Hall of Fame has softened on Bonds’ steroid use, giving him as high as 66.0 percent of the votes in the 2022 ballot. Once Bonds (and Roger Clemens) finally get in via the Veterans Committee, it will open the doors for other steroid-disgraced players like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro.
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