You’re a new NFL general manager. You’re starting a team from scratch and can pick one quarterback to build your franchise around. Ignoring existing contracts, who do you want? Do you want a 26-year-old Cam Newton, a 26-year-old Andrew Luck, or a 27-year-old Russell Wilson? Do you want to bet on at least six or seven more years from a 32-year-old Aaron Rodgers? Or do you want to go really young and pick a quarterback like Jameis Winston (age 21) or Marcus Mariota (age 22)?
Here’s a list of the top 32 quarterbacks I would take in order if starting a new team. I factored in the obvious aspects – skill level, injury history, age, production thus far, and any expected regression coming up. No matter how talented Tom Brady is, at age 38, he’s not going to stand up against Newton or Wilson.
It’s difficult to approximate how many years a quarterback has left, especially in today’s era that has een quarterbacks easily excel into their mid and even late-thirties, but here’s a list of the signal-callers I’d take, starting from No. 32 and going to No. 1.
32. A.J. McCarron (25)
There’s reason to believe A.J. McCarron can be at least a starting-caliber game manager in the NFL. He filled in nicely for Andy Dalton in three starts in 2015, tossing six touchdowns to just two interceptions and posting a 97.1 passer rating that was actually higher than Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers.
31. Jimmy Garoppolo (24)
Tom Brady’s backup is still largely an unknown, but he’s currently the highest-drafted quarterback since Pat White for the 2009 Miami Dolphins to not start an NFL game. There’s only a sample size of 31 passes in regular-season games, but Jimmy Garoppolo has fared well. He’s put up a 91.9 passer rating and hasn’t thrown an interception.
30. Colin Kaepernick (28)
Colin Kaepernick bottomed out this past season, even getting benched for Blaine Gabbert. But he’s still just 28 years old with a cannon arm and tremendous running skills, and Kaepernick throws interceptions at an extremely low rate. On a neutral team, he won’t have Chip Kelly as his head coach, and he may never regain the form that made him a Super Bowl quarterback. You could do far worse than take a QB with his natural skills though.
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick (33)
In his 11th NFL season, Ryan Fitzpatrick played the best football of his career, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and 31 touchdown passes while nearly taking the New York Jets to the playoffs. Fitzpatrick is 33 years old, which means he’s likely a stopgap option for any team, and he won’t get Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker on a neutral squad. With a good defense and running game though, he can win some football games.
28. Robert Griffin III (25)
Robert Griffin III is still just a 25-year-old quarterback with a Pro Bowl selection on his resume, but it was quite a fall from glory that saw him practicing as a safety with the 2015 scout team and a yearly inactive on game days. Whichever coach inherits RGIII will get damaged goods, but theoretically, there’s a high ceiling if the right coach/quarterback guru gets his hands on Griffin.
27. Sam Bradford (28)
Six seasons into his disappointing NFL career, and there are still people who believe Sam Bradford can be a franchise quarterback for the right team. It’s true Bradford has never had a 1,000-yard receiver, but it’s also easy to just blame the receivers and not the quarterback. What a new coach/team gets with Bradford is a mediocre quarterback who will need to be surrounded by a strong running game and elite defense to reach the playoffs.
26. Brock Osweiler (25)
Brock Osweiler hasn’t shown a lot to convince Denver fans he can be the long-term solution, but by virtue of being just a 25-year-old quarterback who manages a game at a respectable level, he’s going to start somewhere in 2016. On a neutral team, Osweiler would likely struggle more than he does with a roster that includes Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and an elite defense.
25. Tyrod Taylor (26)
Tyrod Taylor came out of nowhere in 2015 to toss 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions, finishing with a higher passer rating (99.4) than Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers. He rushed for another 538 yards and four touchdowns, making him one of the game’s better dual-threat quarterbacks.
Still, there were causes for concern. The Buffalo Bills went 0-5 in games in which Taylor was forced to throw the ball 30-plus times. Taylor will have to learn to pass the ball more in high-volume situations to be a long-term answer at the quarterback position; he also missed two games due to injury, and his style of play suggests he could struggle with injuries throughout his career.
24. Alex Smith (31)
Alex Smith had essentially the same numbers as Tyrod Taylor in 2015 but Smith has demonstrated the consistency to do so for several seasons in a row. While Smith is five years older, what ranks him higher on the list is that he’s been at least an average NFL quarterback since joining the Kansas City Chiefs in ’13, and Taylor still has yet to show he can produce on a yearly basis.
23. Jay Cutler (32)
Jay Cutler is an enigma. He’s currently the NFL’s highest-paid player in terms of total contract value ($126 million), yet his numbers place him near the middle of the pack in terms of production. Since 2009, Cutler actually rates third-last among all quarterbacks (min. 2,500 attempts) in passer rating (85.5). He hasn’t started all 16 games in a season since ’09. He’s going to be 33 by the time the 2016 NFL draft rolls around, which means he doesn’t have too many years left.
22. Tony Romo (35)
This ranking may look low for Tony Romo, but concerns about his recent injuries are what drop him out of the top 20 and below contemporaries like Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Tannehill. Romo has broken his collarbone on three separate occasions during his career, and at 35 years old, he’s entering the twilight phase of his playing days.
Romo is remarkably efficient when he plays, and that’s evident by a 2014 season that saw him lead the entire league in completion percentage (69.2), passer rating (113.2) and QBR (83.62). Then again, that’s on a Dallas team that wisely scaled back his passing attempts by surrounding him with an elite running game and all-world offensive line. Romo wouldn’t get his teammates in this scenario.
21. Carson Palmer (36)
After an MVP-caliber regular season, Carson Palmer bombed out in a historically awful postseason. He compiled 4,671 passing yards, 35 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions, and a league-best 82.15 QBR in the regular season before tossing six picks and committing eight total turnovers in two playoff games.
Palmer is 36 years old and has suffered two torn ACLs, so even with the caliber of play he turned in from September through December, Palmer’s window of opportunity is closing. Palmer is a classic dropback passer who needs to be well-protected, but he’s also matured enough as a quarterback that a team can expect top-10 QB play for a few seasons.
20. Joe Flacco (30)
Aside from a four-game postseason stint that got him a $120 million contract, Joe Flacco has been incredibly average throughout his NFL career, and he’s now fresh off a torn ACL. Flacco is 30 years old, he’s never made a Pro Bowl, and he’s quite pedestrian in his numbers – of the 19 qualifying quarterbacks since 2011, Flacco has the lowest passer rating (82.9), trailing even Ryan Fitzpatrick. The one thing Flacco does have for him is his durability, but then again, his consecutive games streak ended this past season.
19. Teddy Bridgewater (23)
We’re just two seasons into Teddy Bridgewater’s career, but the results are underwhelming (don’t be fooled by that Pro Bowl selection next to his name). Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdowns as a sophomore, actually the lowest single-season total by a 16-game starter since Joe Flacco in 2008. It’s true the name of the Minnesota offense was riding Adrian Peterson, but on a new team, Bridgewater wouldn’t have AP and would at times need to carry the offense. Can he do that consistently or is he more of the game manager type?
18. Kirk Cousins (27)
Count me among the people who never thought Kirk Cousins would turn into a quality QB; Cousins proved me wrong with a highly effective 2015 campaign. Cousins led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage, threw 29 touchdown passes to just 11 interceptions, and helped the Washington Redskins to an NFC East title.
Can Cousins continue that success or was this a flash in the pan? His biggest improvement in ’15 was rapidly improving his interception rate from the previous seasons. It’s not unreasonable to think Cousins can at least be a quality game manager going forward, and he’s still made just 25 NFL starts to this point.
17. Ryan Tannehill (27)
Ryan Tannehill is trending to be a quarterback who is what he is. While he’s started all 64 games in his four-year career and improved his passing yardage total every season, he takes way too many sacks and he’s never led Miami to a winning record. Tannehill’s biggest problem is his inability to throw an effective deep ball; if he can improve on that aspect, he’ll move up this list.
16. Matt Ryan (30)
Matt Ryan regressed in a disappointing 2015 campaign, finishing just 20th in the league in passer rating (89.0), 25th in interception percentage (2.6), and 29th in touchdown percentage (3.4). This was despite having arguably the league’s most talented offensive weapon in Julio Jones. Ryan has said he struggled to pick up the Atlanta offense under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, so 2016 will go a long way to determining the truth behind that statement.
15. Philip Rivers (34)
Philip Rivers has been a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback during his NFL career, averaging the following numbers over the last decade in San Diego: a 64.9 completion percentage, 4,130 passing yards, 28 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, and a 95.6 passer rating. He’s never missed a single start due to injury. The only aspect keeping Rivers out of the top tier of quarterbacks is his age (34) and the fact that he did consider retirement last offseason.
14. Eli Manning (34)
13. Drew Brees (36)
Who would you rather have, a 34-year-old Eli Manning who will put up good numbers in an offense that doesn’t have Odell Beckham, Jr. or a 36-year-old Drew Brees who puts up elite numbers? Manning hasn’t missed a start in over a decade, while Brees – who has missed just one start during that span – is starting to show signs of a quarterback nearing the end.
Still, I put Brees higher because he’s a much better quarterback and I’ll take two, maybe three years of his dominance over five of good, not great seasons from Manning.
12. Matthew Stafford (27)
Seven seasons into his NFL career, Matthew Stafford is still just 28 years old and should be able to anchor down the quarterback position for the next decade. Stafford will put up a serious run at the all-time career passing yards record when he’s finished, but passing yards don’t necessarily win football games.
On a neutral team, Stafford won’t have Calvin Johnson, and as it turns out, he won’t have Megatron anymore in Detroit, either. For as many times as he throws the football, Stafford’s touchdown numbers are low – his 4.0 TD percentage since 2011 is more on par with Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco than Andrew Luck or Philip Rivers. But Stafford is young enough to turn it around, and he has the physical tools of a prototypical franchise quarterback.
11. Andy Dalton (28)
After four fairly uninspiring seasons, Andy Dalton broke out in year five. He set personal bests in completion percentage (66.1), touchdown-to-interception ratio (25-7), yards per attempt (8.4), and passer rating (106.2). He took fewer sacks than ever before and posted the fifth-best QBR in the league. Even his injury – a thumb injury that sidelined him for the final three regular-season games and the playoffs – isn’t consistent of past performance, as it’s the first time he’s ever gotten hurt in his NFL career.
Did Dalton really take that next step next season or was it more of a beneficiary of an elite offensive line and the long-awaited breakout campaign from Tyler Eifert? The answer may lie in between, but still, if Dalton is a 28-year-old above-average quarterback, that’s enough to put him close to the top 10 on this list.
10. Tom Brady (38)
Tom Brady is a difficult quarterback to rank. He’s 38 years old, but he’s still playing at a highly elite level. He’s fresh off his 11th Pro Bowl selection in a season that saw Brady post his highest completion percentage since 2011, highest touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2010, and highest passer rating since ’11. Brady is still capable of carrying an offense; even with limited weapons at his disposal, he’s enough to turn an average team into a serious playoff contender.
Brady has never exhibited any injury history, save for the torn ACL he suffered in 2008. He’s started all 112 games since then, and his freak health regime could keep him playing well into his 40s, as Brady believes is likely.
So how do you compare a 38-year-old Brady against a 23-year-old Blake Bortles? It’s no easy task. I think Brady has a solid three, maybe four years left. Bortles probably has 15, and while he showed vast improvement in year two, it’s doubtful he ever approaches the level of play Brady is at now. I put Brady behind a guy like Bortles (and Derek Carr), simply because of Brady’s age. But if a team took Brady in the top five or six in a QB re-draft, I wouldn’t blame them.
9. Ben Roethlisberger (33)
Ben Roethlisberger is playing the best football of his career at age 33. Only Carson Palmer posted a higher QBR than Roethlisberger’s 76.86 mark in 2015. Roethlisberger took advantage of elite offensive weapons to post his highest completion percentage (68.0) of his career, and an 8.4 yards-per-attempt average he hadn’t topped since 2009. No QB in the NFL currently throws a better deep ball than Big Ben.
Roethlisberger is showing the physical wear and tear one would expect of a 12-year veteran who has absorbed over 500 sacks (including playoffs) in his career. He missed four games in 2015, dealing with knee, foot, and shoulder issues, plus a concussion. Roethlisberger probably has three to four years of elite football left, but given that he’s still ‘just’ 33, he could play up to five or six seasons still.
8. Blake Bortles (23)
7. Derek Carr (24)
Two of the top quarterbacks taken from the 2014 NFL draft, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr, are each looking to be long-term franchise quarterbacks for their respective teams.
They posted similar numbers in 2015, with Bortles taking the edge in passing yards (4,428), yards per attempt (7.3), and touchdown passes (35), while Carr won in completion percentage (61.1), fewer interceptions (13), passer rating (91.1), and QBR (49.23).
I put Carr higher than Bortles for several reasons. Bortles capitalized greatly on garbage time scores this past year, as 14 of his 35 touchdown passes (40 percent) came in the fourth quarter. The year before, it was an even higher percentage (45.5). Bortles throws more interceptions and absorbs a ridiculous amount of sacks, due largely to the fact that he holds the ball too long. That’s not to say Bortles isn’t or won’t be a successful quarterback, but Carr gets the nod for now.
6. Marcus Mariota (22)
5. Jameis Winston (21)
There’s a clear-cut top six quarterbacks right now, if you go by long-term value. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota aren’t quite in the keeper class of Cam Newton or Russell Wilson, but they provided strong reason for optimism based on their rookie campaigns.
After being selected No. 1 overall, Winston started all 16 games, passing for over 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. Winston had some growing pains, as all rookies do, but he looks every bit the long-term quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hoped he would be. Winston added six rushing touchdowns on the ground.
Mariota posted better numbers than Winston – higher completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating, and QBR. He also missed two games due to a sprained MCL and posted the league’s worst numbers (per PFF) on deep ball passes.
Winston’s larger, more studier stature projects for better long-term durability, which is what gives him a top-5 spot over Mariota.
4. Cam Newton (26)
3. Russell Wilson (27)
2. Andrew Luck (26)
1. Aaron Rodgers (32)
I think it’s pretty clear that four quarterbacks reign supreme over the rest. Cam Newton and Andrew Luck are still just 26 years old, Russell Wilson just turned 27, and Aaron Rodgers is 32 (but with far less mileage on him than most considering he sat behind Brett Favre for three full seasons).
I’ll break down the four quarterbacks based on their 2015 performance, their performance the past several years, and expectations going forward.
2015: Until the Super Bowl, this was Cam Newton’s season – he won NFL MVP award, and led the Carolina Panthers to a 15-1 regular-season record. Quarterbacks of Newton’s physical tools – 6’6”, 260, and a sub-4.6 40-yard dash – don’t come around every day. Newton’s great season – 45 total touchdowns – was also done without his No. 1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin.
Don’t overlook Russell Wilson though – all he did was turn in one of the greatest second-half seasons in league history, tossing 24 touchdowns to one interception at a 71 percent completion rate. Wilson also led the NFL in passer rating (110.1 – Cam was just eighth at 99.2).
Aaron Rodgers was uncharacteristically off, especially after a hot four-game start to 2015. From Week 5 on, Rodgers struggled to the tune of a 57.5 completion percentage (37th in the league during that span), 6.29 yards per attempt (36th), and an 83.6 passer rating (32nd). He was missing Jordy Nelson, but there was more than just that – Rodgers was too often skittish in the pocket, failing to trust his arm like he usually did.
Luck was even worse, starting just seven games in what can be written off as a year to forget. He won just two of those contests, finishing with a horrific 4.1 interception rate and a 74.9 passer rating that ranked 32nd among 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
2012-2015: Let’s look at the previous three years (plus 2015) as a guide for how these quarterbacks have fared as their team’s starters.
| Name | Starts | Comp % | YPA | TD % | INT % | Rating | Rush Yards | Rush TD |
| Cam Newton | 62 | 59.4 (18) | 7.47 (7) | 5.00 (9) | 2.47 (10) | 89.3 (12) | 2,501 (1) | 29 (1) |
| Russell Wilson | 64 | 64.7 (7) | 8.05 (1) | 6.10 (2) | 1.96 (4) | 101.8 (2) | 2,430 (2) | 12 (T-2) |
| Aaron Rodgers | 57 | 64.7 (6) | 7.77 (3) | 6.50 (1) | 1.40 (1) | 104.1 (1) | 992 (5) | 5 (10) |
| Andrew Luck | 55 | 58.1 (19) | 7.05 (17) | 4.80 (12) | 2.61 (13) | 85.0 (18) | 1,101 (4) | 12 (T-2) |
The sheer passing numbers show Aaron Rodgers is clearly the best of the bunch. He’s first in the league over the last four seasons in touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and passer rating. In fact, he’s on a quest to be considered among the five or so best quarterbacks in the history of the league.
Wilson is underrated – he’s remarkably efficient as a passer, as proven by his league-leading 8.05 yards per attempt and a 101.8 passer rating that ranks second in the NFL. Newton is more near the middle of the pack in the passing numbers, but he’s ridiculously successful at finding the end zone as a runner.
Luck is the only one who doesn’t hold up well in this comparison – he’s actually last (not just among these four, but among all 19 qualifiers with 2,000 passing attempts) in completion percentage. He’s second-last in passer rating and third-last in yards per attempt. Part of this is because the Colts place an extraordinary amount of pressure on Luck to make plays with his arm (and legs), and they’ve surrounded him with a poor offensive line and an extremely subpar running game on an annual basis.
Here’s a stat to show how much pressure is placed on the four quarterbacks:
| Name | Starts | 100-Yard Rusher | Opp < 10 Pts | QB: 40+ att | QB: 50+ att |
| Cam Newton | 62 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 64 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 57 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 55 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 6 |
As you can, see Wilson has benefited from an extraordinarily effective running game and a top-notch defense that almost never forces him to pass the football more than 40 times in a game. Luck’s case is the complete opposite; he plays on an Indianapolis team that is designed so Luck has to throw the ball 45-50 times to win a game.
Newton and Rodgers are more in the middle of the pack, although in a shootout that comes down to high-volume passing numbers, I’ll trust Rodgers more than Newton.
2016 and Beyond: Newton, Wilson, and Luck are roughly the same age, while Rodgers is about five years older. Then again, Rodgers doesn’t have the mileage of a typical 32-year-old quarterback, and – save for 2015 – he’s played at a level the last several seasons that would match up against any passer in NFL history.
While Newton had probably the best year of the four, his previous four seasons pale in comparison to 2015. His physical style of play leaves him open to hits and it may be difficult for a quarterback who relies so heavily on his legs to sustain greatness into his thirties. For that reason, he finishes fourth on the list.
Wilson and Luck are vastly different quarterbacks in how their team supports them, but they do have similar skill sets. They’re the modern-day quarterback in that they can make plays with their arm and legs. Wilson is regarded as more of a ‘winner,’ probably because he has Beast Mode and an elite defense and only has to pass 25-30 times per game. Luck, meanwhile, has to overcome his own defense allowing 44 points in a playoff game. While you can’t go wrong with either one, I think Luck’s ability to win football games when he has to throw the ball 45-50 times is what gives him the edge over Wilson.
That leaves Rodgers as the top guy. It’s certainly a leap of faith to place him here, especially after a season in which he was largely mediocre for the final 12 weeks. Rodgers is 32 years old and substantially older than the other players on this list. What keeps him at No. 1 is my utmost belief in his ability to give a team at least six more Hall of Fame caliber campaigns, especially considering he didn’t really start his NFL career until age 25.
Rodgers has supreme physical tools. Watch his Hail Mary against the Detroit Lions this past year to see his cannon of an arm in full glory. You think any other quarterback – perhaps in the history of the league – could lead his team back like Rodgers did against the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs?
Rodgers has probably been the game’s best quarterback over the last five seasons (whether Brady is in the discussion is valid, but he’s 38). He’s insanely accurate. He doesn’t throw interceptions; in fact, he has the lowest rate in league history and by a substantial margin. I’m willing to bet his ’15 campaign was not a trend and more the result of a poor offensive line (particularly the tackle tandem), extremely underwhelming wide receivers, and an overweight running back. If I add Rodgers to my team, I get a quarterback still largely in his prime, one who possesses elite athletic skills, and one who should have at least six or more elite years left.
