Power Rankings: 2015 NFL Quarterbacks – Job Security

There is there is no job security for the 32 starting quarterbacks in the National Football League. Anyone who follows the sport extensively knows that.

Major League Baseball’s contracts are all guaranteed, which is why aging veterans like Ryan Howard and CC Sabathia remain on the active roster, bringing in top-five salaries for below-average production.

Yet the NFL is a sport where very little is guaranteed; a deal reported to be six years at over $100 million in total value may actually be more like a two-year deal at $40 total million. Such was the case with Colin Kaepernick’s $114 million year deal over six seasons. Per the website Spotrac, Kaepernick can be released by the Niners at just a $7.4 million cap hit after the 2015 campaign; that means he’s essentially playing year-to-year after this season.

In comparison, Philip Rivers’ new four-year, $83.25 million deal all but locks him in for the first three seasons; the San Diego Chargers won’t be able to release him without taking a significant cap penalty until before 2018, and even then, it’s still $9 million.

 

Power Rankings: 2015 NFL Quarterbacks – Criteria

NFL Quarterbacks are ranked largely based on their contractual status, but other factors are considered, namely age, skill level, injury history, and possible in-house replacements at the position. Long-term job security is a debatable term but it can be loosely defined as a three-year gap. As we are in the early stages of the 2015 campaign, here are the 32 men who will be under center for their NFL team. Which of these players have the best chance at still taking snaps in 2018, 2019, and beyond?

Power rankings are done in reverse order, starting with the quarterbacks who have the lowest job security.

 

All contract figures are per Spotrac.com.

 

Power Rankings: 2015 NFL Quarterbacks – The List

32. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

31. Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns

30. Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans

It’s difficult to distinguish between these three teams, each of which has a horrific quarterback situation. Kirk Cousins has a 4.47 career interception rate that is the worst of the 41 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 500 passes since 2012, but he’s still starting because Jay Gruden can’t bear the thought of putting Robert Griffin III out there again.

The thing is, RGIII – even at this point in his injury-wrecked career – gives the Redskins a better chance to win than Cousins. And there is speculation that the Washington organization may give the job back to Griffin sooner than later.

Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman quarterback with one brief stint of impressive games (2013) on his resume. While he’s technically the starter over 2014 first-rounder Johnny Manziel, it’s completely illogical for Cleveland to continue starting McCown, who is at best a viable backup. There’s a good chance McCown is back on the bench by Week 6.

Ryan Mallett rounds out the bottom three. He’s a slow, stiff, immobile quarterback whom the New England Patriots let go this past offseason for a conditional late-round draft pick. Mallett has just a 53.6 career completion percentage, a horrific 5.2 yards per attempt average and a 66.2 passer rating that barely edges out JaMarcus Russell. Once Bill O’Brien sees there’s nothing to Mallett, he’ll go back to Brian Hoyer to finish out 2015 before undoubtedly making a run at his former college quarterback, Christian Hackenberg.

 

29. Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a viable starter everywhere he’s gone, and he’s played well enough that he’s taken snaps for six different NFL teams, and a new organization for each of the last four seasons. He won’t sink an offense – he typically throws more touchdowns than interceptions and his completion percentage hovers over 60 percent – but no organization has ever solved its long-term quarterback problem by having Fitzpatrick under center.

 

28. Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams’ trade for Nick Foles wasn’t so much about acquiring Foles as it was about the organization finally shedding itself of former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford, who had failed to develop in five seasons with the team and was still owed nearly $13 million in 2015.

Foles was immediately signed to a two-year, $24.5 million extension with the Rams, but the breakdown of the contract shows it really just raised his ’15 base salary. He can easily be released prior to ’16 – at just a $3.75 million cap hit – which means he’s essentially in a prove-it year.

Foles flashed in 2013 with Chip Kelly, putting up an absurd 27:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but it’s looking more and more like that was a fluke. Foles’ inability to move well in the pocket limits what he can do behind center. He doesn’t throw many interceptions, but he’s a fumbling machine with a tendency to get injured frequently.

 

27. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills

Tyrod Taylor’s 2015 season has been nothing short of miraculous, especially considering he had thrown just 35 passes since being drafted in ’11. After winning a camp quarterback competition, Taylor has posted a 116.3 passer rating in three NFL starts, accounting for eight total touchdowns and directing the league’s third-rated scoring offense.

Whether Taylor is simply a flash in the pan or a rare gem will be determined as the season progresses. Case Keenum has his brief stretch with the 2013 Houston Texans. So did Austin Davis with the 2014 St. Louis Rams. Neither is a starter anymore.

Taylor’s ability to make plays with his legs means he’ll always be a dual-option threat, but he will need to continue passing effectively to be the Bills’ long-term starter.

 

26. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles

Suffice to say, Sam Bradford isn’t playing as well in 2015 as Chip Kelly expected. Acquired for Nick Foles and a second-round pick, Bradford was supposed to be the player to take the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl, and his preseason performances only fueled those beliefs.

There’s still time for Bradford to turn it around, but the “he’s still rusty” excuse is wearing thin on Eagles fans. Bradford’s shaky pocket presence, atrocious body language, and NFC-worst 24.4 QBR (per ESPN) won’t earn him a contract extension with Kelly. The Eagles will need the preseason Bradford or he’ll likely be wearing a new uniform in ’16.

 

25. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

The end is looking near for Peyton Manning, a five-time league MVP, 14-time Pro Bowler, and arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game.

Manning’s arm strength is all but gone, which means he’s had to rely on his sheer intelligence and wits. Fortunately, Denver GM John Elway has done a remarkable job of transforming his team into a small-ball, defense-first team that wins games in low-scoring fashion. It sounds harsh to call Manning a glorified game-manager at this point, but that’s essentially what he is, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing given that most 39-year-olds are long gone from the league.

From a contract standpoint, Manning is signed through 2016 with an upcoming $21.5 million cap hit, but the Broncos can release him at very little penalty should they so choose. The more plausible scenario is that Manning retires after this season.

 

24. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Jay Cutler is almost a running joke in NFL circles – he’s said to be moody and self-absorbed, a terrible teammate, a turnover machine, and to make matters worse, he’s injury-prone and yet still the league’s 12^th-highest paid player for 2015.

Here’s where the problem arises: If not Cutler, then who? Since 2009, the Bears are 1-14 in games Cutler has missed. He’s still just 32 years old in a league where quarterbacks routinely play into their late thirties.

Someone out there has to be willing to take on Cutler’s gigantic contract (Cleveland? Houston?), and if no one wants him, maybe the Bears will just pay the $13 million cap penalty to outright release him this offseason.

 

23. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

Colin Kaepernick has seen an alarming fall from glory since leading the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl following 2012. He was largely exposed as a passer a year ago, seeing a sizeable drop in his yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR from the previous season.

This year has been even worse. Despite completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, he’s at a career-low 6.2 yards per attempt, and his 71.1 passer rating ranks 30^th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. His recent performance against Arizona was the type that makes a general manager forever question having handed him a $100 million contract, as Kaepernick passed for just 67 yards and threw four interceptions, two of them lazy pick-sixes that were so bad a high school quarterback shouldn’t throw them.

Kaepernick is one of five quarterbacks technically signed through 2020, but at this point, it’s a team-friendly, pay-as-you go deal. The Niners can release him this coming offseason and owe him just $7.40 million.

Kaepernick is just 27 though, he has tremendous size, arm strength, and mobility, and while he’s frustrating at times, he’s going to have to drop off a lot more than this to be released.

 

22. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

One of these days, Blake Bortles has to turn it around. But 17 games into his NFL career, Bortles doesn’t resemble a franchise quarterback.

He’s thrown more career interceptions (20) than touchdowns (16), he’s absorbed 62 sacks already, and his 6.2 career yards per attempt average is in the Sam Bradford range.

Bortles does have prototypical size for the position and he’s an underrated runner. The Jaguars have given him high draft picks at both running back (T.J. Yeldon) and wide receiver (Allen Robinson), plus a $40 million tight end in Julius Thomas. At this point, it’s on Bortles to prove his worth.

What will likely keep Bortles around through at least 2017 is his contract. By virtue of being the third overall selection in 2014, Bortles’ entire $20.6 million deal was guaranteed. Even if he’s released prior to ’17, the Jaguars will still owe $6.6 million in dead money. That essentially means the Jaguars have to ride it out with Bortles for the time being.

 

21. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

For the first time in many years, it appears the Oakland Raiders may have a find at the quarterback position.

Derek Carr started all 16 games in 2014, throwing 21 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. That’s an impressive statline for a second-rookie who was working with limited weapons around him. He certainly had his flaws – his 5.5 yards per attempt average was pretty horrific – but the Raiders wised up and grabbed the best receiver available with the fourth overall draft pick.

Amari Cooper has done wonders for ’15 Derek Carr. Through three games, Carr is at five touchdowns to just one interceptions, an impressive 8.1 yards per attempt, and the Raiders are 2-1. The arrow is pointing up for Carr’s NFL future.

 

20. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

After being arguably the NFL’s most consistent quarterback for most of the last decade, the Drew Brees era may be over this coming offseason. It’s hard to believe the New Orleans Saints would part ways with a nine-time Pro Bowler who has averaged 424 completions, 4,854 passing yards, and 35 touchdowns since joining the franchise in 2006.

But consider the facts:

• The Saints recently overhauled a large majority of their roster while transitioning to a run-first offense. This included trading away All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, signing running back C.J. Spiller, re-signing Mark Ingram, trading Kenny Stills, and drafting a first-round offensive tackle, Andrus Peat.
• The organization drafted quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round, who may be groomed to be Brees’ long-term replacement.
• The team recently restructured Brees’ deal, lowering his ’15 base salary but raising his ’16 cap hit to a whopping $30 million. This suggests they are clearing up room this season to then cut him before ’16.
• Brees missed his first NFL game due to injury in over a decade, a sign that his 36-year-old body may be starting to break down.

Realistically, the Saints will probably look for a trade candidate first. But if they don’t find one, don’t rule out the possibility of New Orleans moving on without Brees.

 

20. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

You can do a lot better than Alex Smith and you can do a lot worse. The same goes for Andy Dalton, but by virtue of Dalton being significantly younger, he’s ranked higher.

Smith and Dalton are similar players. They’re risk-averse, game managers who don’t turn the football over. Neither elevates his teammates in the extent of a Tom Brady or Andrew Luck, but they’ve been in the postseason multiple times each.

Smith’s current contract all but locks him in through the 2016 season. Dalton can conceivably be released before ’16, but he’s playing the best football of his career right now, and that doesn’t seem likely to happen.

Eventually, the Kansas City Chiefs or Cincinnati Bengals will draft a second-or-third round quarterback to groom as a long-term replacement for these players, but expect Smith and Dalton to be their team’s quarterback for several more years at a minimum.

 

17. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer’s resurgence from a horrific 2014 ACL injury is remarkable; he’s been a legitimate league MVP candidate through three games. Palmer hasn’t lost a start since late 2013. His passing numbers are All-Pro caliber, as he’s at 9.1 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns to just two interceptions, and a 117.8 passer rating.

Being 35 years old is probably Palmer’s only downfall, but it’s difficult to imagine him going anywhere at this point. He’s locked in through the 2016 season and even releasing him before ’17 would require the Arizona Cardinals to pay $8.75 million in dead money. As long as Palmer stays healthy, he’s here to stay.

 

16. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

Is Teddy Bridgewater going to be a franchise quarterback or will he be stuck somewhere in Alex Smith/Andy Dalton land?

Signs point more to the latter, especially as he’s regressed from a promising rookie campaign to the tune of just one touchdown pass on 74 attempts. While he’s ninth in the league with a 67.6 completion percentage, he’s only 23^rd in passer rating (80.1), due largely to the small ball style of offense the Minnesota Vikings run with him. Bridgewater is tall (6’4″), but lacks ideal bulk (196 pounds) and arm strength.

Bridgewater was a late first-round pick in 2014, which means he’s signed through 2017. Predicting what happens beyond that is difficult to do, but an early projection would be a long-term deal similar to Dalton or Smith, in that the team can essentially void it on a yearly basis.

 

15. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

It’s surprising that so few people realize the truth about Matthew Stafford: He’s just not good enough.

Since a 5,000-yard, 41-touchdown season in 2011, Stafford isn’t even a league average quarterback. There have been 22 quarterbacks to throw at least 1,000 passes since ’12; Stafford rates dead-last in passer rating (82.8). He’s 20^th in completion percentage (59.83). He’s 20^th in yards per attempt (7.02). He’s won just 43 percent of his starts. And Stafford’s inability to beat teams on the road is especially alarming for a guy formerly drafted first overall.

The Detroit Lions have Stafford signed through the 2017 season, in which he will still be just 29 years old. They’ll probably keep him around, given that he’s extremely durable (especially after missing 19 games his first two seasons) and has a cannon of an arm. But Stafford’s QBR has dropped four consecutive seasons, and the Lions are going to want to see better play from him

 

14. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There have been ups and there have been downs through Jameis Winston’s first three NFL games, but it’s abundantly premature to make any kind of a long-term assessment.

That’s why Winston is pretty much stuck in the middle of the pack. His status as the No. 1 overall draft pick means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will give him all the chances in the world. The four-year rookie contract he signed is worth $25.35 million, and like Blake Bortles’ deal, it’s all guaranteed.

It’s probably well-known by now that no Buccaneers quarterback has ever earned a second contract with the team, but Winston certainly has the size, arm strength, and talent to make it happen.

 

13. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins made what seemed to be a risky decision when they selected Ryan Tannehill – a college wide receiver-turned-quarterback – with the eighth overall selection in the 2012 NFL draft. Tannehill has shown steady progression though, increasing his completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio every year.

The Dolphins rewarded him with a $96 million contract extension prior to this season, $45 million of which is guaranteed. Tannehill still has his flaws – he’s erratic on the deep ball and he’s never taken Miami to the playoffs. He absorbs a ton of sacks, which could lead to him getting injured, but the Dolphins have taken strides to fix that, drafting offensive tackle Ja’Wuan James in the first round in 2014 and signing Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert to a big free-agent contract the same offseason.

Most of Tannehill’s guaranteed money is up front, meaning Miami could conceivably move on from him in a few seasons. But he may be the best quarterback the team has had since Dan Marino, and he would have to dramatically decline to be released anytime soon.

 

12. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Once you reach the top 12 of this list, it’s the quarterbacks that should be around for the long haul – four or five years from now, maybe more. They’re almost all elite quarterbacks that have been to the Pro Bowl and many have won Super Bowls.

Cam Newton was a former No. 1 overall draft pick, like eight other starting quarterbacks in this league. He’s as talented a dual-threat as there is, as evidenced by the fact that he dwarfs all other quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (35, next-best is 12) since Newton debuted in 2011.

Newton could be a more accurate passer, but Panthers GM Dave Gettleman isn’t helping him by leaving him with starting receivers Philly Brown and Ted Ginn, and a left tackle in Michael Oher. The fact that he has the Carolina Panthers at 3-0 this season is downright remarkable.

Newton is signed through 2020 at about $20 million per year, and he’s still just 26 years old. What keeps him from ranking higher on this list is the fact that running quarterbacks have a frequency to break down, as opposed to pure pocket passers like Tom Brady and Drew Brees that can seemingly play forever.

 

11. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

Still just 21 years old and three games into his career, Marcus Mariota is taking the NFL by storm. He’s completing 62.9 percent of his passes. He’s thrown eight touchdowns to just two interceptions, and his 109.2 passer rating ranks seventh-best in the league.

The Tennessee Titans have to be completely ecstatic about Mariota’s play this season. The pieces are in place for him to be a franchise quarterback – he has a No. 1-caliber receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham and a long-term left tackle in Taylor Lewan.

The key will simply be Mariota staying healthy and continuing to produce. If he does both, he’s going to be the highest-paid player in the league by 2018.

 

10. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan will forever be linked as first-round quarterbacks from the 2008 NFL draft. Ryan has probably had a better career, but Flacco stands out for his postseason success (10-5 record, one Super Bowl title).

Flacco can be maddeningly frustrating at times, but he’s never missed a start and save for a season-to-forget 2013 campaign, his season statistics are pretty consistent. The Baltimore Ravens rewarded him with a six-year, $120.6 million contract following his Super Bowl win, and they’re locked in for at least two, probably three more years of that deal.

Meanwhile, Ryan is in the midst of a $100 million deal of his own. He’s quarterbacking a 3-0 Atlanta Falcons team that looks like it could be a contender for quite some time under new head coach Dan Quinn, especially with All-Pro wideout Julio Jones on offense.

Considering Ryan and Flacco are about the same age, they’ll be around for as long as they’re productive.

 

8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Like a fine wine, Tony Romo has become a better player with age. He’s had one of the greatest careers in NFL history by an undrafted player, earning four Pro Bowl selections and passing for over 33,000 yards and close to 250 touchdowns thus far.

He’s on injured reserve (designated to return) with a broken clavicle, but Romo should return late in 2015. Following that, his cap hits for 2016 ($20.8 million) and 2017 ($24.7 million) are nearly all guaranteed, and even if he’s released prior to ’18, the Dallas Cowboys will have to pay $8.9 million in dead money.

Romo gives Dallas its best chance to win, and they’ll likely ride with him until he can’t play anymore.

 

7. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

As Tom Brady’s counterparts Peyton Manning (39) and Drew Brees (36) start to show signs of physical decline, the 38-year-old Brady hasn’t missed a beat. In fact, a case could be made that he’s better than ever.

In his 16^th NFL season, Brady is off to an MVP start, perhaps an all-time great start. He’s thrown 133 passes without an interception. He leads the league in passing yards. His 119.6 passer rating would be the third-best in league history if the season ended now.

Brady’s current contract ‘only’ extends through 2017, when Brady will be 40 years old. But Brady isn’t going anywhere. Bill Belichick uncovered a once-in-a-lifetime gem when he drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000, and letting him go anytime soon would be a colossal mistake.

 

8. Eli Manning, New York Giants

7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

This is quite a testament to the 2004 draft class, one that will go down in history as probably the best ever for quarterbacks.

We’re 10 years in, and look at these numbers:

 

Name	Age	Starts	Record	Comp %	Yards	TD	INT	Rating	SB Wins
Eli Manning	34	172	92-78	59.09	40,519	263	185	82.7	2
Philip Rivers	33	147	89-58	64.88	37,546	257	126	95.8	0
Ben Roethlisberger	33	161	108-53	63.93	39,969	255	133	94.2	2

They’ve all enjoyed unbelievable success over the past decade, and just recently signed long-term deals. Coincidentally (or not), the contracts are all about the same. Here’s a look at how much dead money their respective team would have to pay if released before each season listed below.

Name	Pre-2016	Pre-2017	Pre-2018	Pre-2019
Eli Manning	$42.30 million	$18.60 million	$12.40 million	$6.20 million
Philip Rivers	$18.00 million	$13.50 million	$9.00 million	$4.50 million
Ben Roethlisberger	$24.80 million	$18.60 million	$12.40 million	$6.20 million

Considering each quarterback is making about $20-plus million per season, none of them are going to be released prior to 2017. Realistically, the earliest any of them could be released would be three offseasons from now. Even then, there would be a big dead money penalty. Basically, these three quarterbacks are going to play out the rest of their NFL careers with their current team.

Manning has never missed a game due to injury. Neither has Rivers. Roethlisberger is currently out with a MCL sprain, his first time missing starts since 2012. Roethlisberger is ranked ahead of the other two simply because he’s playing at a higher level right now (when healthy).

 

3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Remember all that speculation that Russell Wilson might leave the Seattle Seahawks to play for another team?

Well, that’s not going to happen. Not after he signed a four-year, $87 million contract that will keep him in Seattle through 2019. Wilson is a player who defies all expectations – he’s a third-round pick who overcame a 5’11” frame to be one of the NFL’s most productive quarterbacks since entering the league in 2012. Wilson has a Super Bowl championship and another near-miss, and his combination of passing and running skills are a rare blend.

Years from now, the Seattle will have to make decisions on which players they can and can’t keep – Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner and Jimmy Graham are all highly-paid and among the best at their position, but the Seahawks can’t keep them all. But Wilson won’t go anywhere, especially not in a quarterback league.

 

2. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

It’s Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers for the top spot, whomever you prefer. Before the year, it would have been an easy call for Luck, but Rodgers goes higher as of now for several reasons.

Luck has been uncharacteristically off this season. He’s dead-last among all qualifying quarterbacks in passer rating. He leads the NFL in turnovers since 2014. And since he joined the league in 2012, Luck ranks dead-last among 22 qualifiers in completion percentage (58.42).

That’s not to downplay what Luck has done in this league – he’s an unquestioned top five QB, despite this year’s struggles and the fact that he may actually miss his first-ever NFL game due to injury this coming Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts put it all on Luck to win games, surrounding him with a subpar running game and a below-average offensive line, and he’s done a remarkable job, leading them to three consecutive 11-win seasons.

But Rodgers is playing the best football in the world right now, perhaps of all-time. It doesn’t matter who Rodgers plays or which receivers (Jordy Nelson) get injured. Rodgers just shreds opposing defenses. This year, his 135.4 passer rating would be far and away the best single-season mark in league history. He’s doing to the NFL what Barry Bonds did to Major League Baseball from 2001 through 2004, except Rodgers isn’t on PEDs.

Luck, 26, will likely right the ship this season, and he’ll probably lead the Colts to a fourth straight postseason appearance. 29 of the other 31 GMs would trade their QB for him (Green Bay and Seattle are the two that would not), and that’s why Indianapolis will give him a contract of almost all guaranteed money over the next five seasons.

But Rodgers is still just 31 years old. In today’s NFL, that’s young for a quarterback. Rodgers has five, maybe six, maybe seven, maybe even more Hall of Fame years left.

And that’s why he’s the No. 1 quarterback on this list.