The start of the official NFL regular season is just one week away, and already, major injuries are set to play a significant role on the 2016 campaign. The losses of Tony Romo and Teddy Bridgewater make the NFC more wide open. Meanwhile, in the AFC, the New England Patriots are without Tom Brady for four games, the Pittsburgh Steelers are without Le’Veon Bell for four games (and Martavis Bryant for all 16), and the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos are starting a former seventh-round pick at quarterback.
I previewed each team in this article and picked division winners to go with a Super Bowl champion. Here I break down the major award winners, starting with my pick to win the regular-season MVP award.
MVP: Carson Palmer
I’m torn between which quarterback will win this year’s league MVP award. For what it’s worth, it doesn’t have to be a quarterback – Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and J.J. Watt were strongly considered – but it’s a quarterback-driven league, and seven of the last eight winners have been QBs. Tom Brady is probably the best quarterback in the league, but given his four-game suspension, the odds of him winning MVP in 12 games is slim. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton (last year’s winner), Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer are all viable candidates, and don’t rule out Eli Manning or Jameis Winston as sleepers.
Palmer gets my pick because I think he runs his team’s offense as efficiently as any of these quarterbacks. In 2015 – his 13th season as a pro – Palmer had his finest year yet. He threw for 4,671 passing yards and 35 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions, while leading the league in yards per attempt (8.7), adjusted net yards per passing attempt (8.41), QBR (82.15), and fourth-quarter comebacks (5). We all saw how his season frighteningly ended in the postseason, with Palmer throwing a miserable four interceptions in the NFC Divisional Playoffs loss against the Carolina Panthers.
Still, I’m taking a leap of faith that that was a fluke for Palmer, and not the beginning of the end. He’s still flanked by arguably the best three-headed wide receiver corps in the league in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown, plus superstar-in-the-making running back David Johnson. Head coach Bruce Arians is also the league’s best coach outside of Bill Belichick. If Palmer can stay healthy – which is no guarantee considering his age and injury history – I think he takes the Cardinals to the NFC’s best record and wins regular-season MVP.
Offensive Player of Year: Antonio Brown
Right now, Antonio Brown is the best offensive player in football. He’s an unstoppable force when he gets the ball in his hands. He’s extremely durable (48 of 48 regular-season games played in the last three seasons), remarkably consistent, and even scores a high amount of touchdowns given his short stature (5’10”, 180 pounds). He’s the unquestioned No. 1 option on what could be the best offense in the game. The only concern is his brief lack of production last year with Ben Roethlisberger hurt, but I think that’s more a knock on Michael Vick and Landry Jones. Brown has averaged 125 receptions, 1,677 yards, and 10 touchdowns the last three seasons, and I actually see him topping all three of those numbers in 2016. Le’Veon Bell is suspended for four games and Martavis Bryant for the whole season, which means Brown will be almost force-fed targets by Roethlisberger. I think Brown puts up a 152/2,027/11 line in 2016, breaking the league’s single-season record for receptions (143 by Marvin Harrison in 2002) and yards (1,964 by Calvin Johnson in 2011). He won’t win MVP since wide receivers just don’t win MVP (no wide receiver, including Jerry Rice, has ever won it), but Offensive Player of the Year is a safe bet with those numbers.
Defensive Player of Year: Khalil Mack
Picking J.J. Watt would be a pretty easy selection, but also a logical one considering he’s been named Defensive Player of the Year three times in the last four years. The only other player in NFL history who has won it three times is Lawrence Taylor. But Watt is recovering from offseason surgery, and there is speculation that he may miss the start of the 2016 season. I think he will still play most of the year – and play very well – but Khalil Mack is my pick to win this year’s award. Mack was a top-five pick in the 2014 NFL draft, and he’s been a superstar since being selected by Oakland. Mack has appeared in all 32 games, and last year, he earned a First-Team All-Pro selection by putting up 15 sacks and two forced fumbles. The Raiders may be shifting Mack from a 3-4 rush linebacker role to a 4-3 defensive end spot, but that won’t drop his sack total. Mack may push for the league’s single-season record in 2016. He’s flanked by talented teammates – nose tackle Dan Williams, defensive lineman Mario Edwards, strong side linebacker Bruce Irvin, and an underrated secondary consisting of Sean Smith, David Amerson, and new first-round safety Karl Joseph. Mack is already a one-man wrecking crew, but this is the year he receives national attention for his play.
Comeback Player of Year: Andrew Luck
The Comeback Player of the Year award traditionally goes to a player rehabbing from a serious injury, often a torn ACL, or maybe a player whose previous season was mired by underwhelming play (Andrew Luck). With that in mind, here are the top candidates for this year’s award: Jordy Nelson, Andrew Luck, Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Keenan Allen, Arian Foster, Steve Smith, and RGIII. Tony Romo would be on the list, but he’s already set to miss the majority of 2016 with another back injury. When they’re all healthy, Luck is the biggest game-changing player on the list, and I think he’s too good to have another season like the one he had in ’15. This past offseason, he signed the largest contract ever for an NFL player. He’s surrounded with the best receiving corps of his career in T.Y. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett, and Donte Moncrief, and the division is wide open. Luck absolutely needs to stay healthy for all 16 games, but if he does, he’s going to clear 4,000 yards with ease – with a shot to reach 5,000 – and 30 touchdowns.
Offensive Rookie of Year: Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott is an easy pick to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff hasn’t beaten out Case Keenum in training camp, and he’s playing for a coach whose quarterbacks have finished in the bottom 10 in passing yards in all but one of his last nine seasons. No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz likely won’t see the field until 2017. The other first-round quarterback, Paxton Lynch, will probably be starting by midseason, but that won’t be enough. Offensive linemen don’t win Rookie of the Year awards. That leaves Elliott, Derrick Henry, and a handful of wide receivers as the likely winners. I expect Cleveland Browns’ first-rounder Corey Coleman to put up a viable fight – he’s a playmaker who could catch 80 balls in that offense. But Elliott is the best running back prospect in years and he’s running behind a rock-solid offensive line that managed to coax an 1,100-yard season out of Darren McFadden in 2015. If Elliott stays on the field, he could win the league’s rushing crown as a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of Year: Jalen Ramsey
There were a handful of talented defensive players that came out in this year’s draft. Joey Bosa was the highest player drafted, and he didn’t help his chances by holding out for most of the summer. Players that stand out as being good fits are Jalen Ramsey, Robert Nkemdiche, DeForest Buckner, and Myles Jack. There was buzz that Ramsey would go first overall, and he’s the perfect new NFL defensive back – he’s a hybrid corner/safety, just like Tyrann Mathieu. Ramsey will start immediately for the Jacksonville Jaguars. A former defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley helped mold the Seattle Seahawks’ Legion of Boom into a Hall of Fame unit, and he will be instrumental for Ramsey’s success.
Coach of Year: Ben McAdoo
The New York Giants liked Ben McAdoo enough that they essentially kicked two-time Super Bowl champion coach Tom Coughlin to the curb to promote offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. McAdoo’s influence on the Giants has already been obvious. Here are Eli Manning’s stats in the two seasons before McAdoo was offensive coordinator compared to the two since McAdoo has taken over.
Eli Manning, 2012-2013: 58.7 comp %, 7,766 passing yards, 44 TD, 42 INT, 5.54 ANY/A, 78.2 passer rating
Eli Manning, 2014-2015: 62.8 comp %, 8,842 passing yards, 65 TD, 28 INT, 6.70 ANY/A, 92.9 passer rating
From 2012-2013, Eli ranked 25th among 28 qualifiers in passer rating and threw six more interceptions than any other quarterback. Over the last two seasons, Eli has ranked 11th of 27 qualifiers in passer rating and interceptions thrown. The addition of explosive wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. has certainly played a major factor in Eli’s recent success, but either way, McAdoo is on track to be one of the better head coaches in the league. I don’t see Victor Cruz seeing the field this season (or ever again, really), the running game is subpar, and the defense was the NFL’s worst in 2015 in terms of yards allowed. That’s why the offseason additions of Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison, and Janoris Jenkins were so crucial, plus first-round corner Eli Apple and Cruz replacement Sterling Shephard. This team is going to push for a division title and ultimately win the final wild-card spot.
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