It’s the day before the Super Bowl, which means that tonight is the unveiling of the complete list of awards from the 2015 NFL season. The Associated Press, which is widely recognized as the official award, will announce winners in seven major categories. Below are my predictions for who I think will win these awards.
Most Valuable Player:
Sometimes the NFL MVP award has a lot of drama on selection night. I think back to 2003 when Peyton Manning and Steve McNair actually tied for the honors. But for the 2015 season, there’s really only one player who has a realistic shot to win the award. That’s Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who led the Panthers to a 15-1 record and the highest-scoring offense in the league despite losing his number one wide receiver before the start of the season. Newton threw for 35 touchdown passes and added 10 more on the ground. His 2015 season stands as one of the most incredible dual-threat seasons by a signal caller in league history.
Tom Brady turned in his usual dominant statistical season, slinging 36 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. He overcame a decimated running game and arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. But his Patriots stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their final six games after a 10-0 start that had many, including myself, convinced that they would win all 16 games.
Carson Palmer, the likely third-place finisher in the voting, overcame a torn ACL last October to lead Arizona to a 13-3 record and the second-most points in the NFL. He led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7), yards per completion (13.7) and QBR (82.15), while setting career-highs in passing yards (4671) and touchdown passes (35). But everything he did, Newton did a little better, leading Carolina to more wins with fewer weapons on offense. It’s also worth noting that Russell Wilson’s league-leading 110.8 passer rating and insane second-half finish to the season makes him a candidate to steal a vote or two.
Voting prediction: Newton 39, Brady 7, Palmer 3, Wilson 1
Offensive Player of the Year:
Just throwing out there: I hate this award. It’s basically pointless. The winner of the MVP is always an offensive player, so this award is essentially the second-best offensive player in the league. It’s ironic that just one year ago DeMarco Murray, on the heels of 1845 rushing yards, won this award, and now he’s a middling 28-year-old running back who isn’t a lock to be the starter on his own team in 2016.
As far as the 2015 season goes, I think Cam Newton will win this award in addition to the MVP award. Since this award was created in 1972, only one wide receiver has won the award, and that’s Jerry Rice (1987, 1993). So if you have any expectations for Julio Jones or Antonio Brown collecting the prize, following their near record-breaking season, I’d recommend curbing your expectations. Barring a surprise here, Newton doubles down on major awards.
Voting prediction: Newton 33, Jones 7, Brown 5, Palmer 3, Brady 1, Peterson 1
Defensive Player of the Year:
If this award doesn’t go to JJ Watt, I don’t even know what to say. He’s the best defensive player in the NFL. He’s one of the three or four best defensive players in NFL history when you compare players by their prime seasons. He’s capable of completely taking over a game, as a pass-rusher or a run-stopper. It’s not even about the stats for Watt, who led the NFL with 17.5 sacks and played the final month of the season with a broken hand. It’s about the impact at which the former first-round pick can change an entire offense’s game plan, forcing consistent double and even triple-teams. If he ever gets some help from 2014 number one pick Jadeveon Clowney, Watt should be able to break the single-season sack record.
A number of other players deserving consideration for the award include Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly, who won the award in 2013 and would likely come away with the honors again if voting was expanded to include the postseason, as well as St. Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Carolina Panthers cornerback Josh Norman and Arizona Cardinals defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. Were it not for Watt, this award could be given to any of those four.
Voting prediction: Watt 35, Kuechly 9, Donald 4, Norman 1, Mathieu 1
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
The 2015 season was just a little bit of a down year for rookies on the offensive side of the ball. There wasn’t an Odell Beckham (2014), Doug Martin (2012) or Cam Newton (2011). The most impressive rookie was probably St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley, who rushed for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns despite missing the first two games of the season while recovering from a torn ACL. In Tampa Bay, number one overall pick Jameis Winston, who many picked to lead the league in interceptions, threw for 4042 yards and 22 touchdowns, while adding six more scores on the ground. Two different knee injuries cost Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota four games and any realistic chance at winning the award. In Oakland, wide receiver Amari Cooper caught 72 passes for 1070 yards and six touchdowns, although he was plagued by extreme inconsistency on a game-by-game basis.
Voting prediction: Winston 31, Gurley 19
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
The most impressive defensive rookie really comes down to one player, and that’s Marcus Peters, the first-round cornerback for the Kansas City Chiefs. Peters was targeted an insane 137 times, a ridiculous 31 more passes than the next-highest targeted cornerback. He had his fair share of rookie struggles and started off slowly, but he was one of the league’s best cover corners in the second half of the season. His overall numbers show a defensive back that intercepted eight passes and surrendered just a 67.7 passer rating allowed. He also allowed just 50 percent of passes thrown his way to be completed. Now it’s worth noting that he allowed eight touchdown passes, one of the highest totals in the league. But in a down year for the rest of the defensive class across the league, there’s really no other player who comes close to matching Peters’ production.
Voting prediction: Peters 50
Comeback Player of the Year:
This is my favorite award and it’s one that I hoped would be won by one of two Eagles players, either quarterback Sam Bradford or linebacker Kiko Alonso. It’s safe to say that those two will not come close to receiving this award. The likely winner for this award is Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry, who overcome a 2014 diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma to return to elite form as one of the league’s best safeties. In Arizona, quarterback Carson Palmer and defensive back Tyrann Mathieu returned from serious injuries, cornerback Patrick Peterson bounced back after a down year largely caused by diabetes, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald returned to Pro Bowl form after recording fewer than 1000 yards in three straight seasons. Other nominees include San Francisco 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who missed all of 2014 after a possible career-ending knee injury in the 2013 conference championship game, and Buffalo Bills guard Richie Incognito, who was out of football in 2014 following his role in the Bullygate scandal in Miami in 2013. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is also a candidate for the award as he won the rushing title a year after he was suspended for child abuse charges.
Voting prediction: Berry 23, Peterson 9, Bowman 7, Palmer 4, Incognito 4, Fitzgerald 2, Mathieu 1
Coach of the Year:
Barring a major surprise, Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera will come away with this award for the second time in the last three seasons. Rivera guided the Panthers to a shocking 15-1 record and the number one offense in the NFL , just a year after a 3-8-1 start put him on the hot seat for the second time in his Panthers tenure. In New England, you could make a case that Bill Belichick turned in his most impressive coaching season, leading the Patriots to 12 victories despite the most injuries in the NFL, especially on the offensive line. Bruce Arians and the 13-3 Arizona Cardinals posted their third straight season with double-digit victories, thanks to a number of players that should receive votes for Comeback Player of the Year. Rookie Todd Bowles anchored the Jets to a surprise 10-6 season, although a Week 17 loss cost the Jets a spot in the playoffs. Andy Reid helped the Chiefs overcome a brutal 1-5 start and the loss of All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles to win their final 10 games. In his second season in Minnesota, Mike Zimmer led the Vikings to a surprising NFC North division title. A surprise and underrated candidate is Jay Gruden, who led the Redskins to a shocking division title after boldly benching former Rookie of the Year winner Robert Griffin III for the unproven Kirk Cousins in preseason.
Voting prediction: Rivera 43, Arians 2, Belichick 2, Reid 2, Zimmer 1
Assistant Coach of the Year
The NFL added this award last season, and Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles parlayed his award selection into a head coaching gig with the New York Jets. In all, 11 coached earned at least one vote, including Eagles special teams coach Dave Fipp. This season, the favorites have to be one of the following three coaches: Denver defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula and Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.
Phillips, who wasn’t even in the NFL in 2014, turned the Broncos’ defense into the fourth-lowest scoring unit in the league, highlighted by the league’s most dominant pass-rush. Shula helped Cam Newton turn into the league’s likely MVP as the Panthers scored 500 points without Kelvin Benjamin and with a patchwork offensive line. McDermott, who has been calling plays since 2014, is largely responsible for the breakout seasons of cornerback Josh Norman and safety Kurt Coleman.
Other possibilities to garner a few votes include Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay.
Voting prediction: Phillips 23, McDermott 12, Shula 9, Jackson 2, Goodwin 2, Koetter 1, McVay 1
