The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is easily the most entertaining round of the postseason. The eight teams remaining are all legit Super Bowl contenders, and non-deserving playoff teams like the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins have already been bounced from the postseason.
This weekend’s games all feature a matchup where one quarterback was selected number one overall in the draft and the other won a Super Bowl. They’ve combined for a 60-39 playoff record, including a 9-5 mark in the Super Bowl. They’ve won 10 MVP awards (including whoever wins it this season). They’ve combined for 2120 touchdown passes, an average of 265 per quarterback.
It’s essentially a football fan’s dream to watch this talented set of quarterbacks play against each other in a quartet of elimination games. Below are my predictions for each of the postseason matchups.
1 – New England 23, Kansas City 20
There’s not a hotter team in the NFL right now then Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 11 consecutive games, including a 30-0 dismantling of Brian Hoyer’s Houston Texans last weekend. Say what you want about Reid’s lack of a Super Bowl title, but he’s proven that he can win big football games, leading the Eagles to the conference championship game five times.
On paper, this is the most fascinating matchup of the weekend, a game that will likely be low-scoring with two elite defenses. It’s really hard to figure out the 2015 Patriots. They started 10-0 but have dropped four of the last six and are becoming ravaged by injuries, especially on the offensive line. Then again, the return of top wide receiver Julian Edelman will pay dividends to an offense still missing its two best running backs. Rob Gronkowski and his ailing knee will play a huge role, as will Jeremy Maclin, currently hobbled by a high ankle sprain suffered last week against Houston.
Since he joined the Patriots, Bill Belichick has earned a first-round bye in 10 seasons, including the last six. He’s won eight of the nine games, no small feat. It’s become routine for Belichick and Brady to appear in the conference championship game. Their season is a major failure if they don’t.
For Reid, this is his first divisional round contest since 2008, when his sixth-seeded Eagles knocked off the top Giants. He’s 5-2 overall in the divisional round, winning four in a row from 2001 through 2004. I’m going to have to go with the Patriots in this one for a number of reasons. They have the best coach in the NFL, the best quarterback and home-field advantage. It’s that simple.
As efficiently as the Chiefs have played over the last three months, I’ll be surprised if their season lasts another week. That also means the Eagles can officially announce Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson as their newest head coach.
2 – Arizona 27, Green Bay 20
If you had told me before the start of the season that the Cardinals and Packers were playing in the divisional round of the playoffs, I would have assumed that the Packers were the 13-win team considered by some to be the best team in the NFL, while the Cardinals were the severely-flawed 10-win team with minimal chance of pulling off an upset. That’s why football is such a crazy game.
Even though they routed Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins last week, I’m far from convinced that the Packers’ offense has fixed the problems that have ailed them all season. It’s been a fascinating season for Green Bay, as their defense has carried the team while the offense, led by the game’s most efficient quarterback of the last half-decade, has sputtered and stalled during the majority of games in the last two months.
It’s really tough to see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers keeping this game close, let alone coming away with a road victory. My final score includes a garbage touchdown for Green Bay. I think the Cardinals defense, specifically Patrick Peterson and Calais Campbell, will really control the game. Palmer is playing near-flawless football, rookie David Johnson has more than replaced Chris Johnson and wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown could all be a number one option on some teams.
Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in the NFL and Carson Palmer has emerged as a top three or four quarterback, as well as the possible league MVP. It’s surreal that neither has recorded a playoff victory yet. That changes tonight.
3 – Carolina 28, Seattle 20
This is the game of the weekend, easily. The Cam Newton vs. Russell Wilson rivalry is one that has really started taking steam recently, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter just wrote a piece comparing the beginning of their matchups to Manning-Brady more than a decade ago. They faced each other in the postseason a year ago, with Wilson and the Seahawks easily defeating an overwhelmed 7-8-1 Panthers team.
This year, the roles have reversed. It’s the Panthers who boast the record in the league, at 15-1, while the Seahawks snuck into the playoffs with a 10-6 record (and a 7-2 finish). The general consensus is that this will be a one-score game heading into the final few minutes, and it feels like most experts are picking Seattle to win. I don’t agree. I’m just not as high on this Seahawks unit. This isn’t 2013 or 2014. While I think Seattle is one of the four or five best teams in the NFL, they also lost six games and needed an all-time collapse to defeat the Minnesota Vikings, hardly an impressive postseason team, in the wild-card round.
Carolina has all the confidence in the world after the greatest season in franchise history. They have the likely MVP winner at quarterback, a former number one overall pick who accumulated 45 total touchdowns despite somewhat limited options at wide receiver. Their defense, led by Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman, is even better than their offense, and home-field advantage might be the difference against a Seahawks team that isn’t nearly as effective on the road.
4 – Denver 23, Pittsburgh 19
This game feels like one of those “what could have been” matchups, as the Steelers are so banged up that I haven’t heard anybody pick them to defeat the number one seeded Broncos on the road. Antonio Brown, the best wide receiver in the NFL, has already been ruled out with a concussion, and running back DeAngelo Williams, the league-leader in rushing touchdowns, won’t play as he continues to recover from his foot injury. Ben Roethlisberger will almost certainly play, but it’s a question of how effective he’ll be with a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his right shoulder.
The only way Denver won’t win is if Peyton Manning turns in one his all-too-familiar playoff performances. The king of one-and-dones, with nine throughout his career, Manning hasn’t started a game since November, and it’ll be fascinating to see how effective he will be after so much time standing on the sidelines.
But even if Manning isn’t at his best, Denver has too many weapons on defense, from DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller to Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, to lose to a Steelers team that will become the first franchise in NFL history to play a postseason game without its leading rusher and receiver from the regular season. If the Steelers had a fully healthy Roethlisberger, Williams and Brown, I would likely pick them to win against a very-flawed number one seed. But right now, this feels like it should be a relatively easy win, setting up what could be the final Manning-Brady matchup with yet again a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
