It’s just over a week until the official start of the 2016 NFL season. I’ll be publishing a series of NFL articles. This one will focus on a brief preview of each team, ranked in order of how I think they will finish in the division. An asterisk means a wild-card berth. My playoff predictions are below. Stay tuned for a 50 bold predictions article and another one highlighting what to look for from the Philadelphia Eagles.
NFC East
1. Washington Redskins (9-7): Believe it or not, but it’s looking like the Washington Redskins have enough to repeat as NFC East champions. The (surprise) offseason addition of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman gives them a bonafide No. 1 corner who can match up with the division’s best in Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant. Kirk Cousins will need to prove the second-half of 2015 wasn’t a fluke, but he gets another weapon in first-round pick Josh Doctson. Expect Cousins to earn a lucrative contract extension after this season.
2. New York Giants (9-7)*: Offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Ben McAdoo has this team’s offense trending in the right direction. Eli Manning is fresh off a 35-touchdown season, and he gets dangerous second-round slot man Sterling Shepard to go with OBJ. The defense will need new $85 million acquisition Olivier Vernon to live up to his contract and help a unit that ranked dead-last in the NFL in yards allowed a year ago.
3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Losing Tony Romo to a broken back hurts, and forces preseason star Dak Prescott into an everyday role as the team’s starter. Fortunately for Prescott, the formula for this team is ground and pound – first-round rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott is a rare talent and gets to run behind the league’s best offensive line. The defense, particularly the front four, is stretched thin and devoid of top talent, which leaves it up to the secondary to improve upon last season’s league-worst 11 turnovers forced.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10): No NFL team with Sam Bradford as its quarterback has ever made the playoffs, and there’s little reason to think the 2016 Philadelphia Eagles will be the first. After all, there’s a new head coach in town (Doug Pederson), a bare wide receiver cupboard, and an offensive line now without starting right tackle Lane Johnson for up to 10 games. It will be up to new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to generate sacks and turnovers from his new 4-3 scheme. He has the talent to do so with Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Connor Barwin, and Vinny Curry, plus inside linebacker Jordan Hicks, who was on his way to being a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate before his injury in ’15. Still, it’s likely there are too many 17-14 losses from this team in ’16.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5): Despite a 6-0 start a year ago, the Green Bay Packers were uncharacteristically off for most of 2015. They stumbled to a 4-6 finish, as Aaron Rodgers endured his worst professional season since his rookie year. He was hit repeatedly behind a porous offensive line, and couldn’t generate his usual success, thanks to Randall Cobb’s inability to create separation, Davante Adams’ year-long struggles, and Eddie Lacy’s weight issues. Signs are positive for 2016, with Jordy Nelson healthy and Lacy reportedly back in shape. As long as Rodgers is under center, it’s Green Bay’s division for the taking.
2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8): The 2015 Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North by playing classic, smash-mouth football – they rode the ageless Adrian Peterson and an underrated defense to 11 wins, while minimizing Teddy Bridgewater’s responsibilities under center. Considering Bridgewater’s devastating non-contact knee injury, he’s not going to see the field this season, which means it’s up to veteran backup Shaun Hill… or Brad Sorensen… or maybe Mark Sanchez. Head coach Mike Zimmer has built himself a formidable defense with Anthony Barr, Harrison Smith, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, and Xavier Rhodes, but he’s going to need his 2016 QB to at least keep defenses honest, or it’s going to be nine men in the box against AP all day.
3. Detroit Lions (7-9): 2016 will be the toughest test of Matthew Stafford’s career, as he enters a world without Calvin Johnson. Stafford also gets a running game that rated dead-last in the league in yards, and made no significant offseason additions. The defense – and the entire team – played much better in November and December, overcoming a 1-7 start to win six of its final eight contests; still, it’s likely asking too much for Stafford to take this team to a playoff berth without serious improvement from the running game.
4. Chicago Bears (6-10): This year’s Chicago Bears are probably one of the safest bets to miss the playoffs; while the schedule is easy and last year’s first-round pick, Kevin White, is set to take the field for the first time, it’s difficult to envision the Bears overtaking either Green Bay or Minnesota in the NFC North. Jay Cutler is likely entering his final year with the team, and while he’s better than people realize, in this day and age, he’s that player that keeps a team in quarterback purgatory – he’s good enough to keep his job but not good enough to win anything.
NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers (11-5): After three straight division titles and a Super Bowl appearance to go with 15 regular-season wins a year ago, there’s no question the Carolina Panthers deserve the top spot on this list. Cam Newton took that next step as a passer, accounting for 45 total touchdowns and winning the league MVP award – and this was without top wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who returns this season after last preseason’s ACL injury. The defense said good riddance to Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman, but GM Dave Gettleman has always valued the front seven more than his secondary. The Panthers have the game’s best inside linebacker in Luke Kuechly, to go with a slew of tough defenders in Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, and soon-to-be star Kony Ealy.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): There’s reason to believe Tampa Bay is on track to being a playoff contender, the biggest reason of which is Jameis Winston. The second-year quarterback has all the physical tools to be a franchise signal-caller, and he’s flanked with two 6’5″ weapons in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, plus a talented running back in Doug Martin. The defense needs to improve upon last season’s 26th rank in points allowed, and seeing first-round rookie cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III play well would be a good start.
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Matt Ryan took a lot of flack last season for what really wasn’t that bad of a year; he threw for over 4,500 passing yards, and he’s almost never hurt. Having Julio Jones always makes it difficult for opposing defensive coordinators; Jones legitimately has the talent to surpass Calvin Johnson’s single-season record for receiving yards (1,964). What Atlanta lacks is a strong pass rush; last year, rookie Vic Beasley unbelievably led the team with 4.0 sacks, and the Falcons need he or new addition Dwight Freeney to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
4. New Orleans Saints (6-10): The formula for the New Orleans Saints in recent years seems to be this: Drew Brees puts up his typical All-Pro caliber season but the defense’s deficiencies are too much for the team to overcome. Brees has averaged a ridiculous 4,800 yards and 35 touchdowns over his decade with the Saints, and he gets new second-round wide receiver Michael Thomas to the mix. The key, like always, will be a defense that rated dead-last in the league in total yards allowed in 2015. The Saints desperately need this unit to improve, but it won’t be easy, especially with rookie first-round defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins already sidelined due to a broken leg.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4): Seattle has established itself as a mini NFC dynasty over the last four years, but the NFC West will belong to Arizona in 2016. Bruce Arians is the best head coach in the league outside of Bill Belichick, and Carson Palmer is undergoing a late-career renaissance much like Rich Gannon. It all imploded for Palmer in last year’s NFC Championship Game, but the rest of the offense is too talented to take a step back. Second-year running back David Johnson is an All-Pro in the making, and the three-headed monster of a receiving corps is extremely talented. Factor in a defense that is loaded in the secondary with Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu – plus new pass-rusher Chandler Jones and interior first-round rookie Robert Nkemdiche – and you have what will be the NFL’s best team this coming year.
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)*: This team is too talented to miss the playoffs. Russell Wilson took that next step forward in 2015, playing like the league’s best quarterback over the last eight weeks, and the defense has ranked No. 1 in points allowed four consecutive seasons. Still, the offensive line is worrisome enough that it’s doubtful Seattle can capture the NFC West. The Seahawks don’t return a single starter at the same position from the 2015 campaign, and they’re relying heavily on young and inexperienced players. The offense is also now without Marshawn Lynch, which places more pressure on Wilson to make plays. Any defense that includes Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor in the secondary is a legitimate contender, and the Seahawks could easily run the tables. But it’s more likely they succumb to Arizona in the NFC West race and finish with a wild-card berth.
3. Los Angeles Rams (7-9): Jeff Fisher is NFL purgatory; he’s good enough to keep his job and (mostly) avoid top-5 draft picks, but he’s also the king of the 7-9 season that won’t win you anything. Fisher and GM Les Snead went all-in for quarterback Jared Goff this offseason, trading up to take the Cal signal-caller with the first overall pick. First, Goff will need to win the starting job (he’s currently being outplayed by career backup Case Keenum), then he will need to do enough to take the focus off top running back Todd Gurley. The defense has the ability to be ferocious, led by stud pass-rushing tackle Aaron Donald, although the unit will have to overcome the departures of veterans Chris Long and Janoris Jenkins. A bounce-back season from Robert Quinn would be nice, as well as a step in the right direction from former No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson, the team’s hopeful franchise left tackle. Seven wins is a logical guess for the Rams, but it could be more if Goff progresses quicker than anticipated.
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Chip Kelly will have his hands full in 2015 with a roster that ranks among the NFL’s most depleted. It’s looking more and more like former Super Bowl quarterback Colin Kaepernick won’t even make the 53-man roster, let alone start for this team. That means former Jacksonville Jaguars bust Blaine Gabbert gets the nod, and while Kelly was able to coax a Pro Bowl season out of Nick Foles in 2013, Gabbert will face much tougher defenses than Foles did. The offensive line is in shambles, and the defense ranked bottom five in many key statistical categories. It doesn’t help that the Niners have arguably the league’s toughest schedule, and their divisional foes don’t make it any easier.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (12-4): The New England Patriots have won 12 regular-season games for five straight seasons, and even with Tom Brady’s four-game Deflategate suspension, the Patriots are still the easy odds-on favorites to win the division. Jimmy Garoppolo has fared well in preseason competition, and if he can split his four starts, it’s not the end of the world. Bill Belichick’s teams have historically finished much stronger than they start. The offense is built around Brady’s short-game passing strength wth Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Martellus Bennett as the primary weapons. This team’s defense is now a major strength; coordinator Matt Patricia’s unit was top-10 in both yards and points allowed in 2015. Losing key pass-rusher Chandler Jones hurts but Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins compose the most athletic interior linebacking corps in the league, and Malcolm Butler more than held his own against top wideouts a year ago.
2. Miami Dolphins (8-8): I have the Miami Dolphins finishing second in the AFC East, but I don’t expect them to pose a serious threat to the New England Patriots. New head coach Adam Gase was an intriguing hire, given his success as an offensive coordinator, and he absolutely needs to coax a Pro Bowl season out of Ryan Tannehill. I think Tannehill will put forth the best year of his career – he has talented wideouts in Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker – but the running game takes a hit with the loss of talented yet perennially underutilized running back Lamar Miller. The defense lost pass-rushing force Olivier Vernon to free agency, which makes Cameron Wake’s return from an Achilles tear, plus new addition Mario Williams, all the more important. The biggest problem is likely to be the secondary, where the starting cornerback spots will likely be manned by Philly free-agent bust Byron Maxwell and second-round rookie Xavien Howard.
3. New York Jets (7-9): The staredown with Ryan Fitzpatrick ended, with the veteran quarterback finally agreeing to a one-year, $12 million deal to return for the 2016 season. It’s the best move for both parties, as Fitzpatrick threw 31 touchdowns last year, demonstrated a great rapport with Brandon Marshall, and nearly took the New York Jets to the playoffs. The late-season collapse was horrific – and it may happen again – but what were the Jets’ other options? Geno Smith? Bryce Petty? Head coach Todd Bowles’ plan to win should be to minimize Fitzpatrick’s workload and focus on winning games with his running game (Matt Forte) and defense, a unit that includes loads of talent in Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, and Darrelle Revis. First-round rookie linebacker Darron Lee is another player who should make an impact on defense.
4. Buffalo Bills (4-12): It has not been a fun offseason for the Buffalo Bills. First-round rookie Shaq Lawson has undergone shoulder surgery and is expected to miss part of the season. Second-round rookie Reggie Ragland tore his ACL. Star wide receiver Sammy Watkins had another offseason foot surgery. $100 million defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is suspended for four games. And top backup running back Karlos Williams was a surprise release after showing up to camp overweight. The key for this team in 2016 will be the play of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who was a breakout star a year ago and earned a (kind of) long-term contract extension with the team this summer. Taylor needs to show he can duplicate his style of play and stay healthy for all 16 games. Another concern is the defense; thought to be a great defensive mind, Rex Ryan oversaw a defense that rated in the middle of the pack or slightly below in many key statistical categories.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): The 2015 Pittsburgh Steelers rated third in the league in total offense and won 11 games (including the playoffs), despite Ben Roethlisberger missing four games and Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant combining to appear in only 17 of 32 contests. That’s why I think the 2016 club will still finish in first place, despite Bell already suspended for four games and Bryant for the entire season. Roethlisberger has played the best football of his life when he’s been on the field the last several years, and Antonio Brown is the game’s greatest offensive weapon, a reincarnation of Jerry Rice who simply can’t be contained by one defensive back. Defensively, last year’s club forced a slew of turnovers and generated a high number of sacks despite subpar cornerback play. If Bell can stay healthy when he returns to the field, this team is as good a bet as any to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): For five straight years, the Cincinnati Bengals have reached the playoffs yet failed to win a game. I think the streak ends in 2016, but not with a playoff win – Cincinnati finishes 9-7 and just missed the postseason. Andy Dalton took that next step forward as a passer last year, but now he has to prove it wasn’t a fluke, and he’s now without Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The Bengals do have a top-notch offensive line, one that Football Outsiders rated as the league’s best in terms of run-blocking in 2015. Defensively, Cincinnati was second in points allowed a year ago, although they will be without Vontaze Burfict (suspended) for the first three games of the season. So why do I think the Bengals will miss the playoffs? I think Dalton regresses to more of his ’11-’14 form, force feeds too many targets to A.J. Green, and an up-and-coming Oakland team narrowly edged out the Bengals for that final wild-card spot.
3. Baltimore Ravens (6-10): An interesting thing happened to Joe Flacco once he won the Super Bowl and was made the highest-paid player in football: he got exposed. With Flacco earning $20-25 million per season, the Baltimore Ravens don’t have the available cap space to hold onto stars like Anquan Boldin and Eugene Monroe, which in turn places more pressure on Flacco to make plays. Flacco’s torn ACL last year was an obvious fluke – he’d never missed a game in seven seasons until that – but still, his rankings since 2013 in several key statistical categories are underwhelming: last in touchdown percentage (3.80) and second-last in passer rating (80.0) and yards per attempt (6.76). Flacco may have Steve Smith this season, but Smith is 37 and coming off a serious injury, so don’t expect too much from him. Last year’s first-round rookie Breshad Perriman hasn’t shown much, and veteran tight end Ben Watson is already lost for the season with an Achilles injury. Meanwhile, the defense – normally a strength under John Harbaugh – finished 24th in points allowed and somehow recorded just six interceptions all year. The team will did make a move to alleviate that problem, signing free-agent safety Eric Weddle from the San Diego Chargers, and they will need him to play at an All-Pro level.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-13): If there’s one thing you can usually count on, it’s the Cleveland Browns finishing last among a shuffling of underqualified starting quarterbacks. New head coach Hue Jackson is going with Robert Griffin III this year, although RGIII at this point in his career is a far cry from the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s never been a good pocket passer and he can’t stay healthy, which means Josh McCown will likely see significant action this season. The offense may get a boost from electrifying playmaker Josh Gordon, who returns from a suspension in Week 5, and first-round rookie receiver Corey Coleman. Still, the defense isn’t likely to be good enough to keep this team in games – the unit ranked bottom-six in both points and yards allowed last year. Barring a revival from RGIII, it’s likely to be a long season for Cleveland.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (9-7): The AFC South is arguably the NFL’s worst division heading into 2016. By virtue of the Houston Texans having won the division last year, they’re my pick to win it this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a three-team race between the Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston’s starting quarterback is Brock Osweiler, who was given a $72 million deal in free agency despite a 2015 season that saw him get benched for the remains of Peyton Manning. Osweiler does inherit an offense that added playmaking running back Lamar Miller, plus Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins and rookie first-round deep threat Will Fuller. On defense, the Texans have J.J. Watt, the league’s most dominant defensive player since Reggie White, although Watt may miss the start of the regular season following offseason surgery. A breakout season from former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney would go a long way. If he posts a double-digit sack year – as he’s quite capable of doing – and Watt stays healthy, this defense will push the team into the playoffs.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Andrew Luck has a lot to prove in 2016. He was magnificent his first three seasons in the league, taking a below-average Indianapolis Colts roster to the postseason three straight years, including an appearance in the AFC Championship Game. Luck suffered through a turnover and injury-plagued 2015, yet still received the highest contract ever offered to an NFL player. Luck enters this season fully healthy and with an offense loaded of playmakers – T.Y. Hilton, former first-round pick Phillip Dorsett, and up-and-coming receiver Donte Moncrief. The problem is that Colts’ GM Ryan Grigson has always put too much pressure on Luck to win games; the result was a defense that ranked bottom-seven in points and yards allowed last season. The Colts will go as far as Luck can take them in 2016, and it begins with his staying on the field for all 16 games.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8): The Jacksonville Jaguars made enormous strides to improve their team this offseason. They added two first-round caliber defensive players in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, and they get back last year’s first-round defensive end, Dante Fowler, who never played a game after tearing his ACL soon after the draft. Sophomore quarterback Blake Bortles took that next step as a passer, throwing 35 touchdowns, while wide receiver Allen Robinson emerged as a star (80 catches and 14 scores). There’s reason to believe the offense overachieved last year – the Jaguars scored a shockingly high number of points in garbage time opportunities, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Still, the overall tone of this organization is trending upward, and a playoff berth is likely in 2016 or 2017.
4. Tennessee Titans (4-12): The three-team AFC South race isn’t likely to include the Tennessee Titans for no stronger reason than their head coaching situation. Mike Mularkey is on his third NFL team, yet brings just an 18-39 record (.316 winning percentage). He’s a dismal 5-27 in his last 32 games. With that in mind, there’s little reason to think the Titans will have a winning record in 2016. Mularkey does get a talented young quarterback in Marcus Mariota, who showed great promise as a rookie and will need to show he can stay healthy in order to have a long career. Tennessee has some other building blocks – offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, and new running back Derrick Henry – but still, there are too many deficiencies on this roster to think they’ll compete this coming season.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (10-6): John Elway is taking his biggest gamble yet at the quarterback position, essentially hoping an all-world defense can carry this roster to another title. After Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler walked in free agency, the Denver Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch in the first round and traded a late conditional round pick for Mark Sanchez. Still, it will be 2015 seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian who starts at quarterback in Week 1. Siemian’s job will be to not turn the ball over and hope the defense can generate enough turnovers to win ballgames. Super Bowl MVP Von Miller was re-signed, DeMarcus Ware is back, and a secondary that boasts Chris Harris, Jr., Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward should be enough to offset the losses of defensive starters Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. The Broncos should be able to reach the playoffs on the strength of their defense, but they’ll need Siemian (or someone) to step up at quarterback, especially come playoff time.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)*: Andy Reid has built himself a solid team in Kansas City, one led by an underrated quarterback, talented running game, and elite pass rush. After a 1-5 start to the 2015 campaign, Reid led the Chiefs to 10 straight regular-season wins to close out the year. Veteran QB Alex Smith doesn’t take chances, but he also doesn’t throw interceptions, and he’s seen his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating all rise in each of the last three seasons. The offense has intriguing pieces if Jamaal Charles can return from his second ACL injury; there’s also Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. The defense is where this team will win games – last year, the Chiefs were third in points allowed, fourth in sacks, fifth in turnovers forced, and seventh in yards allowed. They’ll miss Justin Houston while he recovers from a torn ACL, but four other defensive starters made the Pro Bowl a year ago.
3. Oakland Raiders (9-7)*: Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack are set to give this franchise its first playoff appearance since 2002. Carr-to-Cooper will be one of the league’s most dangerous QB-WR duos this coming season. Left to right, this offensive line is stacked and should keep Carr standing upright in the pocket. The defense is led by Mack, a future Defensive Player of the Year winner, who could approach the single-season sack record sooner rather than later. The secondary needs to improve from a unit that rated 26th in passing yards allowed a year ago, but that’s why the Raiders spent their first-round pick on safety Karl Joseph.
4. San Diego Chargers (7-9): Mike McCoy’s San Diego Chargers took a massive step back in 2015, winning just four games after consecutive nine-win seasons. A 3-9 record in close games was the team’s downfall, and that should even out in ’16. The offense brings back Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, as the two players enter their 13th season together. Rivers is a perennial top-10 quarterback, but he’s not helped by an awful running game and an equally poor offensive line. The defense was bottom five last year in both net passing yards allowed per attempt and rushing yards allowed per attempt, and third overall draft pick Joey Bosa missed nearly the entire summer after contract squabbles. It’s going to take a breakout season from Melvin Gordon or a few lucky bounces for the Chargers to make the playoffs.
Wild Card Playoffs
(3) Denver Broncos over (6) Oakland Raiders
(5) Kansas City Chiefs over (4) Houston Texans
(3) Carolina Panthers over (6) New York Giants
(4) Washington Redskins over (5) Seattle Seahawks
Divisional Playoffs
(1) New England Patriots over (5) Kansas City Chiefs
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers over (3) Denver Broncos
(1) Arizona Cardinals over (4) Washington Redskins
(3) Carolina Panthers over (2) Green Bay Packers
Conference Championship
(1) New England Patriots over (2) Pittsburgh Steelers
(1) Arizona Cardinals over (3) Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl
Arizona Cardinals over New England Patriots
Major Awards
NFL MVP: Carson Palmer
Offensive Player of Year: Antonio Brown
Defensive Player of Year: Khalil Mack
Comeback Player of Year: Jordy Nelson
Coach of Year: Bruce Arians
Offensive Rookie of Year: Ezekiel Elliott
Defensive Rookie of Year: Jalen Ramsey
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