Not every team has one player with even the slimmest of Hall of Fame chances (see: Miami), while others have multiple players with over a 50% chance. It’s an inexact science to project future Hall of Famers, especially for players that are still on their rookie contract. But that’s what makes it fun.
Buffalo Bills: RB Frank Gore
If one 30-plus year-old running back isn’t enough, the Buffalo Bills have two of them – and each has a legitimate case for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. LeSean McCoy had the greater prime, utilizing a Barry Sanders-esque repertoire of moves to lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2013 and earn two First-Team All-Pro selections during his peak. But Frank Gore was more consistent and just keeps on chugging out yards year after year. His 12 straight seasons of 1,200 scrimmage yards (‘06-‘17) are a league record, and he’s fourth on the league’s all-time rushing list. While he was never considered the best running back in the game, his consistent success at a frequently devalued position should be enough to one day get him in Canton, Ohio. You just can’t keep a player with close to 15,000 rushing yards out of the Hall of Fame.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 70%
Miami Dolphins: CB Xavien Howard
It’s extremely difficult to pick a player on the Miami Dolphins with even the remotest Hall of Fame chances. Jarvis Landry is gone. So is Cameron Wake. Minkah Fitzpatrick or Christian Wilkins (the last two first-round picks) could always theoretically develop into Canton-bound stars, but that’s asking a lot. Realistically, the team’s best chance is that cornerback Xavien Howard continues his development into one of the NFL’s best defensive players. After starting all 16 games in 2017 and recording four interceptions, Howard led the league with seven picks last year – in just 12 games. That earned him a $76.5 million contract extension in the offseason, the largest deal ever given out to a cornerback. He’s off to a good start, but he’s going to need a lot more strong seasons to realistically join the conversation.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 5%
New England Patriots: QB Tom Brady
You expected someone else? Realistically, there are two slam dunk Hall of Famers on the New England Patriots: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Brady will make it on the first ballot and is already widely considered by many to be not only the greatest quarterback ever, but the greatest player ever. He’s been to 14 Pro Bowls, won three NFL MVP awards, thrown for over 70,000 yards and over 500 touchdowns, and he’s led the Patriots to six Super Bowl titles. Four times he’s been named Super Bowl MVP. That’s two dominant Hall of Fame careers packed into one. Maybe even three.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 100%
New York Jets: RB Le’Veon Bell
Sam Darnold and Jamal Adams are young talents, former first-round picks, and leaders on their side of the ball. They have a chance to be generational talents. But Le’Veon Bell’s accomplishments so far to date already put him in the Canton conversation. He’s twice been named a First-Team All-Pro and put up three 1,250-yard rushing seasons. His career average of 129 scrimmage yards per game is a league record. Bell’s career could come to a screeching halt on a new team in 2019, but then again, a year off from football may have been the best thing for Bell.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 25%
Baltimore Ravens: S Earl Thomas
There are three players on the team that will likely make the Hall of Fame – Marshal Yanda, newly-signed Earl Thomas, and Justin Tucker. And the team just let go of two more with strong chances in Eric Weddle and Terrell Suggs.
Yanda is a seven-time Pro Bowler and two-time AP First-Team All-Pro who has a Super Bowl championship with the 2012 club. Thomas was an equally talented player who has made six Pro Bowls and three Pro Bowls while winning a Super Bowl with the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. You can make a strong case for either player making the Hall, but I’m going with Thomas because he’s younger (still only 30), so he theoretically has more prime years in front of him, and the Hall of Fame has been kinder to safeties than guards.
Steve Hutchinson and Alan Faneca are well-deserving of Canton and still haven’t made it, and Yanda will have to fight through Logan Mankins to make it. If Thomas can put together several more strong years, he’s going to walk in on the first or second ballot.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 70%
Cincinnati Bengals: DT Geno Atkins
Like Marshal Yanda/Earl Thomas, you can make a similar case for either A.J. Green or Geno Atkins. Green plays a more prominent position, but he’s been stricken by the injury bug as of late (update: he left camp early today due to what sounds like a lower leg injury) and his quarterback situation unfortunately doesn’t help his case. Atkins is coming off of five consecutive 16-game seasons and has averaged 8.4 sacks during that span, and from an interior line position no less.
It’s easier to see Atkins putting together several more dominant years. Green will also have to compete with a slew of wide receivers for the Hall, notably Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Atkins may see some positional competition in Gerald McCoy, but McCoy being released does help Atkins get the edge.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 55%
Cleveland Browns: WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
There’s no denying Odell Beckham Jr.’s raw talent. We’ve all seen the one-handed catches and the precise route-running. He wasn’t helped with his quarterback situation in Big Blue, nor the injuries he suffered over the last two years. Still, a 390/5,476/44 career receiving line is pretty darn impressive for a 26-year-old, especially one who is transitioning to the best passer he’s played with in the NFL.
Beckham hasn’t yet been a First-Team All-Pro or led the league in either catches, yards, or receiving touchdowns in his five-year career. But he has all the talent to put up a 1,600-yard receiving campaign with 15+ scores and if he adds in some dominant playoff games, he’s on a Hall of Fame path.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 50%
Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Ben Roethlisberger
Quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings don’t usually miss the Hall of Fame, especially one like Ben Roethlisberger who will pass 60,000 passing yards and come close to 400 touchdowns in 2019. Like many of the game’s best quarterbacks now, Roethlisberger has evolved as a player with age, growing from a ball control game manager to one who can chuck the ball 45 times per game with highly efficient results.
Losing Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the same offseason will be difficult to overcome, but still, Roethlisberger could likely retire now and garner a first-ballot Hall of Fame invite.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 80%
Houston Texans: EDGE J.J. Watt
Houston has a stacked roster. Deshaun Watson is a budding franchise quarterback, DeAndre Hopkins is arguably the best wide receiver in the game, and Jadeveon Clowney is a standout edge rusher. But they can’t match what J.J. Watt has already done in his NFL career.
Watt won no fewer than three Defensive Player of the Year awards in his first five seasons, tying a record only achieved by Lawrence Taylor. After two consecutive injury-plagued campaigns, Watt rebounded with another dominant season in 2018 and he seems poised to have an equally strong showing in ’19. It would be difficult to see him missing the Hall of Fame even if he hung up his cleats now.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 95%
Indianapolis Colts: K Adam Vinatieri
There is only one legitimate kicker in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Morten Andersen), but it’s all but a lock that Adam Vinatieri will join him as the second kicker.
We all know about Vinatieri’s Super Bowl heroics, but most impressively, he’s now entering his 24th season as a kicker in this league. He won rings for the 2001/2003/2004 New England Patriots and then the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in points scored in both the regular season (2,600) AND the postseason (238). That’s pretty remarkable. Three Pro Bowls is only half of what a guy like David Akers has made but Vinatieri has still done enough that he’s all but a lock.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 85%
Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Calais Campbell
Calais Campbell has had quite the late Hall of Fame surge. He was always a standout player in Arizona, but managed to fly under the radar – which isn’t exactly the easiest thing for a 6’8”, 300-plus pound player who can fill in at both the three-technique and five-technique. But since joining Jacksonville via free agency, Campbell has gotten the recognition he’s always deserved.
He’s averaged 12.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in two years with the Jaguars, and he’s flanked by enough defensive talent that it’s reasonable to think his production will continue. Campbell will need to clear the 100-sack mark for sure and 125 would help his case, as would a push for a Defensive Player of the Year award.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 25%
Tennessee Titans: DT Jurrell Casey
Taylor Lewan would have been the pick here but getting hit with a PED suspension doesn’t bode well for a player’s legacy. Jurrell Casey is their best shot here, as he’s a four-time Pro Bowler who is still playing his best football entering 2019. Casey isn’t on a Hall of Fame track but if he can put together 4-5 more excellent years, he will move into the conversation.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 20%
Denver Broncos: EDGE Von Miller
It’s hard to believe just how dominant Von Miller has been since being selected second overall in the 2011 NFL draft. He’s averaged 12.5 sacks and three forced fumbles over eight years. He’s been to seven Pro Bowls and been named a First-Team All-Pro three times and a Second-Team All-Pro four other times.
Miller has never led the league in sacks and he’s (surprisingly) never been named NFL Defensive Player of the Year. But he was the driving force behind one of the greatest defenses of all-time and sacked Cam Newton 2.5 times in the Super Bowl to earn the game’s MVP award. He’ll cruise past 100 sacks this year and while he may not break Bruce Smith’s career sack record like he hopes to, it’s reasonable to think he’ll reach 150 before he retires.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 80%
Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes
It’s amazing how many star-studded players the Kansas City Chiefs have rid themselves of over the past several years – Kareem Hunt, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Derrick Houston, Marcus Peters, and Eric Berry. As it stands now, their likeliest Hall of Famer comes down to either Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce, and you could make a strong case for each of them.
Mahomes has played just one season in the league but he’s thrown 50 touchdowns (fifty!) and won the MVP award, and it doesn’t get much better than having Andy Reid as your head coach. Meanwhile, Kelce is already a four-time Pro Bowler in just five seasons as a starter, and it’s hard to believe he’s averaged over 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards at the tight end position. You really can’t go wrong with either one of them, and while it’s difficult to project Mahomes’ HOF chances at the age of 23, what more could he have done at this point?
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 70%
Los Angeles Chargers: QB Philip Rivers
With Antonio Gates still unsigned as of late July, this vote goes to Philip Rivers fairly easily. Rivers has been a model of consistency over his 14 years as a starter, making the Pro Bowl eight times, throwing for over 4,000 yards 10 times, and averaging 26 touchdowns during that span. His crowning achievement was probably leading the NFL in yards per attempt three straight seasons during the heart of the Peyton Manning/Tom Brady/Drew Brees era (2008-2010), but his career numbers are probably better than everyone realizes.
He’s sixth in passing yards and touchdown passes, eighth in completions and passer rating, and ninth in yards per attempt. He hasn’t won the Super Bowl or even been there, as many critics will be the first to tell you, but that shouldn’t keep out what has been a tremendous quarterback.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 65%
Oakland Raiders: WR Antonio Brown
Forcing a trade out of Pittsburgh probably doesn’t help Antonio Brown’s Hall of Fame chances, but what he’s done so far already should put him in on the first ballot. He’s coming off an unparalleled six-year reign as the game’s best receiver, during which he’s averaged 114 receptions, 1,524 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns.
There are a handful of Hall of Fame-caliber wide receivers in the league right now – Odell Beckham, Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins – but Brown has still earned a First-Team All-Pro vote four times. His peak is right up there with what we saw from Randy Moss or even Jerry Rice; it just depends how Brown can keep his dominance going on a new team.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 85%
Dallas Cowboys: TE Jason Witten
With Jason Witten coming off the Monday Night Football broadcasting booth to play tight end in year 16, he’s Dallas’ clear-cut favorite to make the Hall of Fame. Witten should be an easy first-ballot choice when he does retire. He’s been to 11 Pro Bowls, earned First-Team All-Pro honors twice, and remarkably he hasn’t missed a game due to injury since his rookie season.
Witten didn’t have the all-world dominance of Rob Gronkowski or the touchdown prowess of Antonio Gates, but he’s been arguably the most reliable third down target in the game over the last decade. His career total of 1,152 receptions ranks fourth all-time, ahead of all-time greats like Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Cris Carter.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 90%
New York Giants: QB Eli Manning
Eli Manning is the first player I can remember who may actually be playing himself out of the Hall of Fame. Getting benched for Geno Smith was bad enough but he’s managed to post a losing record as a starter in five of his last six seasons and it’s likely he will drop below .500 in 2019.
Manning has never passed the eye test, but he’s still managed to put up some impressive accomplishments. He will push for 60,000 yards this year and there’s a good chance he will wind up with over 400 passing touchdowns. And who can forget that he beat Brady/Belichick not once but twice in the Super Bowl? Jim Plunkett is the only quarterback to ever win two Super Bowls and not make the Hall of Fame. Don’t expect Eli to be kept out.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 65%
Philadelphia Eagles: OT Jason Peters
In terms of pure athleticism at the offensive tackle position, Jason Peters may be the greatest to ever play the game. He’s a mammoth of a man at 6’4”, 330 pounds but athletic enough that he played tight end in college.
Peters’ entire career has been overcoming doubters – those who said he couldn’t make the successful transition from college tight end to NFL offensive tackle, those who doubted his ability to come back from a double Achilles tendon tear at age 30, and those who thought his career was over when he tore his ACL at age 35. All he’s done during his career is make nine Pro Bowls, two First-Team All-Pro squads, and set the standard for excellence at his position.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 75%
Washington Redskins: RB Adrian Peterson
It’s strange to see Adrian Peterson in a Washington uniform, but AP’s legacy is safe as one of the 10 best running backs to ever play the game.
Fresh off a 1,042-yard campaign, he’s pushing his mid-thirties and he’s still adding to a terrific resume. He’s won the rushing title with three different subpar quarterbacks. He’s the last running back to win the NFL MVP award, and he did it on a 2,000-yard rushing campaign nine months after a torn ACL. Few running backs ever have possessed his combination of power and speed, and he’s a safe first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 99%
Chicago Bears: EDGE Khalil Mack
Not many players see their Hall of Fame chances actually increase following a trade in the prime of their career, but Khalil Mack is an interesting case. He’s a top-five dominant defensive player in the league who showcased that for the Chicago Bears last year – 12.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, a pick-six, and 18 quarterback hits.
Mack is 28 years old, which puts him in the prime of a career that already includes four Pro Bowls, three First-Team All-Pro selections, and a Defensive Player of the Year award (2016).
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 50%
Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford
Hear me out on Matthew Stafford’s Hall of Fame chances. He’s probably not a top-10 quarterback right now and he’s only been named to one Pro Bowl. (Vince Young even managed to make two of them!). But what Stafford has going for him is an incredible streak of durability – 128 consecutive games started since 2011.
If he continues to play all 16 games, he’s going to end up with gaudy numbers. He’s at 38,526 passing yards and 237 touchdowns, and he’s entering his age-31 season. If we take conservative estimates and assume Stafford duplicates the average of his last five years for another five seasons, he’s looking at 60,000 yards and 350 touchdowns. And that would still only put Stafford at 36 years old.
Quarterbacks in today’s era regularly play until they’re in their upper thirties. It’s really not unreasonable to think Stafford could clear 75,000 passing yards by the time he’s done. Is he a Hall of Fame player on a day-to-day basis? Of course not. But that will certainly get him some votes.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 25%
Green Bay Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers could retire right now and get 100% of the Hall of Fame vote. He’s the quintessential example of God-given quarterback traits whose only blemish has been a streak of injuries and a stagnant offense.
Rodgers is a two-time NFL MVP who owns career records for both TD:INT ratio and passer rating. His career touchdown rate of 6.2 is the highest of any passer to start after the Super Bowl era. He won the MVP in his only Super Bowl and has a postseason passer rating (99.4) close to his regular season mark (103.4).
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 100%
Minnesota Vikings: S Harrison Smith
The Minnesota Vikings have a stacked roster, especially on defense, but there’s no surefire Hall of Famer. Adam Thielen is a stud wide receiver but he didn’t become a full-time starter until he was 26. Danielle Hunter is off to a terrific start but is still so young (24 years old). Anthony Barr has been to four straight Pro Bowls but he’s an off-the-ball linebacker who doesn’t put up great numbers.
The likeliest Hall of Famer may be Harrison Smith, the do-everything safety. Smith is 30 already but he’s playing the best football of his career. He’s a ballhawk who can cover, tackle in the box, and blitz the quarterback. Safeties have the hardest time getting into Canton, Ohio but Smith makes plays everywhere and has very little injury history.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 20%
Atlanta Falcons: WR Julio Jones
Matt Ryan to Julio Jones will go down as one of the five greatest QB-WR combinations of all-time, and Jones is the driving force behind this duo. The 6’3” electrifying playmaker is a freak athlete who shed early injury labels to put together a five-year run that puts him in the driver’s seat for the Hall of Fame.
Since 2014, he’s averaged a ridiculous 105/1,599/6 receiving line with five Pro Bowl selections and two All-Pro honors. He’s led the league in receiving yards twice and receiving yards per game three times, and he’s shown absolutely no signs of slowing down as he enters his ninth year. Other than Jerry Rice, no receiver has ever led the league in receiving yards more than twice; if Jones does it a third time, he can consider himself a Hall of Fame lock. He’s already well on his way there.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 75%
Carolina Panthers: MLB Luke Kuechly
It’s difficult to believe Luke Kuechly is underrated at this point in his career, but he probably is. In just seven NFL seasons, Kuechly has already established himself as one of the best linebackers to ever play the game. He’s won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and Defensive Player of the Year award in back-to-back seasons. He’s led the league in tackles twice and recorded pick-sixes in consecutive playoff games in 2015.
Here’s a better example of Kuechly’s greatness: Since the Super Bowl era, Kuechly is one of only five defensive players to earn five First-Team All-Pro selections in his seven seasons – and two of those (LT and Reggie White) are considered in the 10 greatest players to ever wear a uniform.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 80%
New Orleans Saints: QB Drew Brees
Age hasn’t slowed down Drew Brees to date. The 40-year-old signal-caller is fresh off a season in which he set a single-season record in completion percentage (74.4), threw 32 touchdowns to just five picks, and led the NFL in passer rating (115.7). He’s firmly entrenched himself as one of the 10 best quarterbacks of all-time, maybe even top five.
Brees has never won a regular season MVP award and he hasn’t been a First-Team All-Pro since 2006. But he’s been to 12 Pro Bowls and been named Offensive Player of the Year twice, and most impressively, he’s actually averaged 4,776 passing yards and 34 touchdowns per year since joining the New Orleans Saints 13 seasons ago.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 100%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Mike Evans
At one point, it looked as if Ndamukong Suh was headed right to the Hall of Fame, but changing teams this frequently won’t help his case. That, and the perception that he’s a dirty player and takes plays off. So Mike Evans gets the nod, as he’s put up five strong years and is still just 25 years old.
Here is the complete list of players to put up at least 6,000 receiving yards and 40 touchdowns through their age-25 season: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, and A.J. Green. That puts Evans in HOF company, even in today’s inflated passing era.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 35%
Arizona Cardinals: WR Larry Fitzgerald
The consummate professional, Larry Fitzgerald is still going strong as he enters his 16th professional season. He’s seen a career revival since moving into the slot, which puts him at second only to Jerry Rice in receiving yards (16,279), third in receptions (1,303), and sixth in receiving touchdowns (116).
Fitzgerald hasn’t missed a game since 2014 and he’s missed just six in his career. He also turned in one of the greatest postseason runs of all-time, catching 30 passes for 546 yards and seven touchdowns in the 2008 playoffs, including what should have been the game-winner in the Super Bowl.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 99%
Los Angeles Rams: DT Aaron Donald
It looked like J.J. Watt would be the most dominant player we’ve seen this side of LT/Reggie White, but Aaron Donald may have something to say about that. Donald has already packed more into five seasons than many Hall of Famers have in an entire career.
He’s been named a Pro Bowler all five years and a First-Team All-Pro in four of those years. Donald was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in consecutive seasons and set a single-season record for defensive tackles with 20.5 sacks. And the best part is that he’s still just hitting his prime at age 28. He’s going to be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame when he’s done.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 90%
San Francisco 49ers: CB Richard Sherman
Richard Sherman has been one of the greatest cover corners this league has ever seen, and hopefully the Hall of Fame voters recognize that when it’s his time for election. Sherman was the best player on The Legion of Boom, recording a ridiculous 32 interceptions over his seven years with Seattle. No other cornerback had more than 21.
Sherman is why NFL teams look for big, physical corners with long arms. He’s a 6’3” corner who has ballhawking tendencies. He led Seattle to one Super Bowl title and two appearances, but it was his knockdown (resulting in an interception) and post-game rant in an NFC Championship Game in 2013 that earned him national attention. The Seahawks ranked No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating during Sherman’s seven years with the team; they fell to 19th after letting him leave.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 80%
Seattle Seahawks: QB Russell Wilson
Just seven seasons into his career, Russell Wilson has probably done enough already that he deserves Hall of Fame recognition if he retired now. He’s a dynamic quarterback who keeps defenses honest with his ability to gain yards on scrambles, but he’s also a talented enough passer that his 100.3 career passer rating is the second-best mark ever.
Wilson’s greatest achievement is making the historically-inept Seattle Seahawks relevant again. He led them to a Super Bowl title in just his second season as starter and another appearance in his third year. He’s 75-36-1 in the regular season but also sports an impressive 8-5 mark in the postseason. He benefited from a dynamic running game and elite defense for years, but now that he’s lost Marshawn Lynch/Richard Sherman/Earl Thomas, he’s arguably better than he was in his first five seasons.
Projected Hall of Fame Chance: 80%
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