For the first time in several years, there’s reason for optimism among Philadelphia Phillies fans. New general manager Matt Klentak has the team trending in a positive direction, and a plus-.500 winning percentage in mid-May is stunning, to say the least.
The offense hasn’t mustered much, but a young pitching staff shows long-term potential, and there are future stars to be found in the field, whether it’s former top prospect Maikel Franco or Rule 5 steal Odubel Herrera.
This is a team that should be a serious contender within its division in a few years, although they’ll need to keep adding some offensive pieces to have a shot against the formidable pitching rotations in both New York and Washington, D.C.
Here’s a way-too-early glimpse at what the 2019 roster could look like. I won’t predict all 25 players, but I included my best guesses at the eight positional starters, the five starting pitchers, and a handful of relievers. The best part is that the Phillies have no one – literally not one player – under contract past 2017. Gone are the days of overpaid former stars hanging on; this is a club that will be able to spend some serious free-agent money in the upcoming offseasons.
Position Players
Catcher
Carlos Ruiz has been a fine backstop over the past decade, amassing close to 1,000 hits and a career .265/.350/.395 slash line that actually gives him a league-average career adjusted OPS (100). But he’s 37 years old and in the final deal of his contract with the team. It will be a new era without Ruiz, one of two holdovers from the 2008 world championship squad; after all, he’s literally spent more years of his life in the Phillies organization (19) than not (18).
Ruiz has split time with Cameron Rupp over the last two seasons, but Rupp won’t be the team’s long-term answer. He’s a solid defender but doesn’t hit well enough (.238 career batting average) to be a good every day option.
Fortunately, the Phillies have a handful of catching prospects in the organization. Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro are the most notable, and it’s a good bet they’re battling it out for the starting job in 2019 (or before). Knapp was a second-round pick of the club in the 2013 MLB amateur draft, and he’s currently starting for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Alfaro probably has the higher ceiling; he’s actually rated by MLB.com as the top catching prospect in all of baseball. The Phillies acquired Alfaro in the trade that sent Cole Hamels to Texas last summer. Alfaro is just 22 years old, and while he’s said to be a work in progress defensively, he possesses a cannon of an arm. If he can continue his development, he has All-Star potential.
First Base
The future at first base is largely unknown. What we do know is that Ryan Howard won’t be here. A catalyst of the 2008 world champions and a former league MVP, Howard has never fully recovered from the torn Achilles injury he suffered at the end of the ’11 postseason. He’s been reduced to a part-time role player, platooning with Darin Ruf. Since his five-year, $125 million extension kicked in (2012), Howard has produced a whopping -2.4 WAR.
For what it’s worth, Ruf’s days are probably numbered as well. He doesn’t hit righties well enough to be a full-time player. He will likely be non-tendered or designated for assignment before ’19.
And there are no surefire first base prospects in the waiting. Larry Greene was drafted in the first round the other year to be the next Ryan Howard, but he failed miserably and is now out of baseball. The team could always end up getting a starter out of Tommy Joseph, but the more likely scenario is that the team signs someone in free agency.
How about Eric Hosmer? The Kansas City Royals’ first baseman isn’t your traditional first baseman. He doesn’t hit for power, which is typically a requirement at such a position. But he’s a good player, a three-time Gold Glove defender, and a free agent after the 2017 campaign. He’ll be 28 years old at that point, but he’s not going to get an outrageous contract.
A five-year, $60-70 million deal may work for Hosmer, and that provides stability at a position where the Phillies really haven’t had any since the glory days of Howard.
Second Base
A young Chase Utley won’t be walking through the door anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies can’t find a competent starter. Cesar Hernandez projects best as a backup, and while Freddy Galvis is a whiz defensively who’s more than capable of playing second base, the club would have to be hoping for a better hitter.
Prospect Scott Kingery is the odds-on player to be starting in 2019. A 2015 second-round pick from the University of Arizona, Kingery is in high-A Clearwater right now. He’s hit well at every level he’s been at, and he has good speed that will make him a threat to steal bases in the majors.
If Kingery doesn’t pan out, look for the Phillies to target a free-agent player. A sleeper is Washington Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon, who hasn’t capitalized on his 2014 breakout campaign and may soon find himself on the trade block in D.C.
Shortstop
Freddy Galvis is the starting shortstop for now, but he’s just a placeholder for top prospect, J.P. Crawford. The fifth overall prospect in all of baseball, Crawford has all the tools to be a major-league star and could be with the big-league club by the fall.
Crawford is the best prospect the Phillies have had since outfielder Domonic Brown; obviously, here’s to hoping Crawford turns into a better major league player than Brown. Crawford is just 21 years old and in Triple-A already. Expectations are high that he can be the next Jimmy Rollins for this city. He should be an easy everyday starter in three years.
Third Base
Maikel Franco is one of the most talented young players in baseball, and will be key to helping turn the Phillies around. Franco is just 23 years old and already a full-time starter at the hot corner position. While his numbers are down in 2016, he has already flashed at the major league level – last year, Franco batted .280/.343/.497 with an impressive 14 home runs and 128 adjusted OPS in just 335 plate appearances.
Franco is a good fielder as well, and should win multiple Gold Gloves at the position. He can still work on certain aspects of his game – he doesn’t walk enough and his batting average is low – but he has barely a season’s worth of MLB games under his belt, and should continue to improve.
Left Field
With all due respect to Tyler Goeddel and Cedric Hunter and David Lough and even the veteran Peter Bourjos, I don’t want them anywhere near the starting lineup in 2019. At least not if the Phillies plan on contending.
Here’s where it would be nice to see the team spend a little in free agency. My top preference is Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a three-year deal to stay with the New York Mets this past offseason, but can choose to opt out after ’16 if he so pleases. The way that Cespedes is hitting the ball, why wouldn’t he try to cash in on a mega-deal?
You may remember last year that Cespedes joined the Mets via a midseason trade and hit well enough (17 home runs, .604 slugging percentage in just 57 games) that he garnered MVP talk. He’s continued that success into this season, and he’s currently at career highs in on-base percentage (.361), slugging percentage (.620), OPS (.980), and adjusted OPS (162), while leading the NL in home runs (15). Cespedes is just 30 years old and he’s a Gold Glove corner outfielder. He’s the kind of player the Phillies can afford to pay, now that they’re free from all their old veteran contracts. Look for Cespedes to push for a five-year deal at $120 million-plus.
Center Field
Odubel Herrera joins Shane Victorino as the second Rule 5 player to carve out an every day job as the Phillies’ center fielder. They even have similar skill sets, as they’re both speedy hitters who can get on base and run well.
Herrera batted .297 in an impressive 2015 rookie season, and he’s followed it up by turning into a legitimate major league star. Herrera is batting .320 at the top of the lineup, and a ridiculous 15.5 walk percentage gives him a .427 on-base percentage. He’s taking advantage of a .385 batting average on balls in play, which seems unsustainable until you see that he put up a .387 BABIP last year and .389 in Double-A with Texas in 2014. Herrera can field well, too.
Just five National League position players have put up a higher WAR (5.6) than Herrera in the last calendar year, and if he can continue that level of play, the Phillies have a star under team control for a long time.
Right Field
The Phillies could try to promote one of their organizational prospects to start at right field in 2019. There’s Nick Williams, the talented outfielder acquired in the Cole Hamels trade. He’s a 22-year-old top 100 MLB prospect who projects to be a fine corner outfielder at the major league level down the road.
And then there’s Bryce Harper, the impending free agent of all free agents whose agent, Scott Boras, will surely command the greatest contract in sports history when Harper hits the open market as a 26-year-old. There will be a bidding war like you won’t believe for Harper, who will shatter Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million deal. Harper will likely get $400 million, and don’t be surprised if he legitimately commands half of one billion dollars.
Numbers don’t lie, and Harper is the best hitter in baseball right now at just 23. He won the NL MVP award last season, and even a drop this year in his numbers still has him among the best players in the game. Since the start of last year, Harper is a .311/.450/.624 hitter with 55 home runs, a 1.074 OPS, and more walks (172) than strikeouts (169). Harper’s 186 adjusted OPS during that span would fit pretty nicely on Babe Ruth’s seasonal statistics. Harper is the kind of player that makes a major league baseball franchise relevant again. Is it realistic that Harper comes to Philly? Probably not. There’s a better chance the starting right fielder in 2019 will be Nick Williams or maybe super-utility player Roman Quinn. But if it’s Harper, Philadelphia baseball will be relevant again.
Starting Pitching
Ace
Aaron Nola probably isn’t your traditional ace, considering he doesn’t strike out an extraordinarily high amount of hitters. But he has excellent command of his pitches, and he’s becoming exactly what the Phillies hoped he could be when they took him in the first round of the 2014 MLB amateur draft.
Nola flew through the club’s minor league system, and he’s now in his second season in the bigs at just age 22. In 21 lifetime starts, Nola has some pretty solid numbers – he’s 10-5 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.072 WHIP, and a pretty nifty 4.45 K:BB ratio. His fastball tops out in the low 90s, but it’s his curveball that will one day make him a star.
Starting Pitcher #2
There’s a chance that Phillies fans will look back at Vincent Velasquez as the starting pitcher that the team stole in the Ken Giles trade. Velasquez is just 23 years old and he’s shown flashes of absolute brilliance this season, never more so than the 16-strikeout, no-walk complete game shutout he twirled in April.
Velasquez is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA through 10 starts, and he’s striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. He throws a hard fastball that reaches the mid-90s, and he pairs that with a good slider and changeup. Velasquez has been hit around a little more recently – he has a 6.31 ERA in his last five starts and was lit up for seven earned runs against the Chicago Cubs on May 29. But he’s still young, still developing, and has upper-rotation stuff.
Starting Pitcher #3
Jake Thompson was acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade, and he’s impressing in the Phillies’ minor league system. The 22-year-old Thompson has a 3.48 ERA in nine Triple-A starts and a 3.28 lifetime minor league ERA over 425.2 innings pitched since 2012.
There’s a lot to like about Thompson. He’s well-built at 6’4”, 235 pounds. He was a top-50 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2015 season, and he’s a top-five prospect in a pretty good Phillies minor league organization. Thompson will probably spend the bulk of the season with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, but he may see a September call-up and earn a permanent starting rotation spot by next season.
Starting Pitcher #4
The Phillies’ Triple-A team is stacked, and Zach Eflin is another starting pitcher who should be in line for a spot on the 2017 major-league roster. Eflin was drafted in the first round by the San Diego Padres four years ago, and he’s climbed through the minor leagues (and switched organizations, having been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp and then to the Phillies for Jimmy Rollins).
Eflin is 22 years old and putting up good numbers for the IronPigs. He’s 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA. He has tremendous accuracy – just a 1.2 walk rate per nine innings, and at even a modest 7.5 strikeout rate, that’s a 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Eflin projects as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.
Starting Pitcher #5
A quick look at Jerad Eickhoff’s 2-7 record in 2016 suggests he’s not doing too well, but there’s a high reason for optimism with Eickhoff. Including last year, he has a 3.42 career ERA in his first 18 starts at the major league level. He’s posted a 3.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an impressive 1.139 WHIP.
Eickhoff throws a devastating curveball; in fact, FanGraphs rates Eickhoff as second to only his teammate, Aaron Nola, for efficiency of his curveball. Fine-tuning his fastball will be the key to Eickhoff’s development, as opponents have hit this pitch for a .363/.409/.638 statline last year. If he can show more consistency in getting batters out with his fastball, he could even be a top-tier starter.
Closer
Jeanmar Gomez isn’t your stereotypical closer. While he’s having a fine season – 2.45 ERA, NL-leading 17 saves – he has an uncanny low strikeout rate for a closer. Expect Hector Neris to take this job from Gomez sometime soon.
Neris has been one of the league’s top relievers this year. His 26 relief appearances are tops in the National League. He’s posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP, as well as a 11.9 strikeout rate that suggests he can excel in the ninth inning role. Neris is 25 years old and under team control for an additional five seasons, so if he can blossom into a closer role, the Phillies have their closer at a lot cheaper of a rate than what they paid Jonathan Papelbon.
Setup Man
I’m holding out hope that Mark Appel can at least grab this role. Appel is the former No. 1 overall pick whom the Phillies acquired in the Ken Giles trade; it’s safe to say Appel is a disappointment from what the Houston Astros thought he would be, and that’s why they were comfortable letting him go. Appel is almost 25 years old and still hasn’t reached the major leagues. His 4.46 ERA in Triple-A this season is mediocre, and he walks too many batters.
But Appel is just three years removed from being the first overall draft pick. He hasn’t lived up to expectations so far, but he’s still young enough that he can easily turn it around. It’s almost conservative to ‘just’ list him as a setup man for the ’19 Phillies, where at the very least, he should be able to strike out a high percentage of batters.
