With Chip Kelly fired after fewer than three seasons at the helm, it’s doubtful the ensuing Philadelphia Eagles offseason carries as much drama as it did a year ago. After all, Kelly’s decision to virtually overhaul the offensive side of the ball – plus bringing in new faces in Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell – gave the Eagles an entirely new identity for the 2015 campaign. It’s an identity that owner Jeffrey Lurie and his right-hand man, Howie Roseman, would like to fix this offseason, along with bringing on board a new head coach.
Key decisions will need to be made regarding the 53-man roster. At 6-9, this team clearly wasn’t good enough to compete for a division title, so the trick will be finding more talent but at the same time, remaining under the NFL’s salary cap.
The NFL’s salary cap is expected to rise to about $150-$153 million by ’16, which would be close to a $10 million increase from this season. Per Spotrac, the Eagles currently have $132.29 million tied up in cap dollars for next year, which puts them around the middle of the pack in available dollars to spend. At a projected cap of $150 million, that leaves Lurie, Roseman, and the new coach about $17.71 million to spend to upgrade the roster.
Then again, not every player on the current roster will be back in 2016. Riley Cooper, for instance, is due to count for $5.3 million against the salary cap. Given his subpar quality of play this season, it’s likely he’s a cap casualty, which would save the Eagles $2.9 million (they still would need to pay $2.4 million in a dead money penalty).
Releases
Here’s a list of potential offseason cuts this organization could make.
| Name | Position | 2016 Cap Hit | Dead Cap | Savings |
| Mark Sanchez | QB | $5.5 million | $2 million | $3.5 million |
| Riley Cooper | WR | $5.3 million | $2.4 million | $2.9 million |
| Brent Celek | TE | $5 million | — | $5 million |
| DeMeco Ryans | ILB | $4.5 million | $1 million | $3.5 million |
| Darren Sproles | RB | $4.5 million | $1 million | $3.5 million |
Cooper and DeMeco Ryans are likely to be released. Celek, while always a fan favorite and quality tight end, isn’t likely to be retained as he enters his 10th NFL season. He’s due to make just too much money for essentially an in-line blocking tight end.
Mark Sanchez and Darren Sproles are toss-ups. Due to the fact that he’s a quality backup quarterback, Sanchez will probably be back. My hunch is that Sproles is not. Kelly overcommitted financially to the running back position, and DeMarco Murray ($13 million cap penalty if released) has to be back, which means Sproles may be on the outside looking in.
So factoring in the releases to Cooper/Celek/Ryans/Sproles, that gives the organization $32.6 million to spend on its own players, free agents around the league, and 2016 draft picks.
In-House Free Agents
There are four significant free agents for the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, and one whose value towers over the rest: quarterback Sam Bradford, defensive ends Cedric Thornton and Vinny Curry, and safety Walter Thurmond.
It would be a surprise to see the Eagles re-sign both Curry and Thornton, but it’s logical to think one of them comes back. If the Eagles switch to a 4-3 defense for next season, Graham and Curry (if he’s back) are the starting defensive ends, with Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan as the tackles. Should Thornton come back instead, he would serve as the primary backup to Logan, and the team may employ a rookie, a free-agent signee, or even Connor Barwin as the other 4-3 end opposite Graham.
If the Eagles keep their 3-4 defense, Thornton and Curry would serve as their traditional 5-technique role on the outside shoulder of the opposing guard. Thornton is a much better run-stopper, while Curry is the pass-rusher of the two, and a more natural fit for a 4-3. Just a guess, but it makes more sense for Thornton to be back on about a three-year, $12 million deal, while Curry finds a natural 4-3 defense via free agency.
Thurmond overachieved in 2015 but he’s worth bringing back. He’s a safety who can cover well. Expect a multi-year deal worth about $4-5 million per season.
The big question is Bradford. The sixth-year pro had his moments as an Eagle, but also missed two more games due to injury and saw his interception rate rise under Chip Kelly. A better receiving corps would do wonders for Bradford, who was plagued by the second-most drops in the entire NFL, as would a more competent interior offensive line.
It’s extremely difficult to project what will happen with Bradford. He reportedly turned down a four-year, $72 million extension from the Eagles prior to ’15 (although Bradford has denied doing so). The nature of supply-and-demand when it comes to quarterbacks suggests Bradford could get that deal, even after a disappointing first year in Philly. His agent will likely point to Kirk Cousins’ upcoming extension as a projection for Bradford, although the difference is that Cousins stayed healthy all season and has the Washington Redskins in the playoffs as division champions.
For now, my instinct is that Bradford comes back. Quarterbacks – even fairly mediocre ones like Bradford without great track records – don’t grow on trees. Even though he’s gone, Kelly traded too much for Bradford not to be back. The key will be the Eagles being able to work out a team-friendly deal like what the San Francisco 49ers gave Colin Kaepernick; one that the Eagles can escape after two seasons if necessary.
At about a $15 million projected cap hit for Bradford, $4 million for Thurmond, and $3 million for Thornton’s first year, that leaves $10.6 million to work with.
Contract Extensions
Contract extensions aren’t necessities. Theoretically, an organization could allow all its players to hit the free-agent market. The problem with that is it can cause increased unhappiness among players, especially those like Fletcher Cox who are among the premier at their position and deserve to get contractual stability before hitting the open market.
Cox is clearly the team’s best player. As a 2012 first-round pick, he is eligible for a contract extension this offseason. The Eagles have already exercised his option for the ’16 campaign, but it would be a sign of good faith to lock Cox up long-term. The only problem is Cox is going to break the bank.
He’s not quite J.J. Watt, but if Ndamukong Suh got $114 million and Marcell Dareus got $100 million, Cox has a case for close to that money. Cox has thrived as both a 4-3 tackle and a 3-4 end. He’s only 25 years old. He’s never suffered anything close to a serious injury in the National Football League. Expect Cox to get at least a $12-15 million-per-year extension over the next five-plus seasons. At a current 2016 option of $7.8 million, that’s about an extra $4 million against the ’16 cap.
Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz, and Bennie Logan are all 2013 draft picks, and each is due for a contract extension this offseason. It’s not as if the Eagles have to extend each of these players to bring them back in ’16. And the organization may even decide to let one or more of them walk. For now, it’s more likely that the Eagles pick up Johnson’s ’17 option awhile, and let both Ertz and Logan play out the final year of their rookie contracts.
Malcolm Jenkins is also entering the final season of a three-year deal he signed prior to 2014. He’s far exceeded the expectations that came with that contract, but it’s more likely the Eagles wait until at least midseason before offering him another contract with the team. So with just Cox likely to get an extension, that leaves $6.6 million in cap space.
Rookie Draft Picks
Last year, the Eagles committed about $4 million in the salary cap to their rookies. While they don’t have a second-rounder this year, they can expect to pay roughly the same amount, due to the fact that they’ll likely be taking their top player higher than they drafted Nelson Agholor (No. 20 overall) in 2015.
Free Agents
That leaves $2.6 million in cap space for free agents around the league. It’s doubtful the Eagles would go for a player like Alshon Jeffery after spending first, second, and –third round picks on receivers the last two years, but there is talent to be found.
The problem is that if the Eagles do re-sign Bradford, it limits their ability to grab other free agents from around the league. That means Howie Roseman and the new coach will need to be thrifty in who they do sign, and whether bringing back Bradford is really worth it.
