The 2017 season culminated in the first Super Bowl championship in Philadelphia Eagles’ history, and the future looks even brighter for the organization.
There’s an MVP-caliber franchise quarterback on board and a Super Bowl MVP backing him up. All five starters on the offensive line will return for ’18, and depth at the defensive line (Michael Bennett, Haloti Ngata) should offset the losses of Vinny Curry (released) and Brandon Graham/Timmy Jernigan (both expected to miss the beginning of 2018 after offseason surgeries).
Eventually, the front office will have to open up its checkbook and pay Carson Wentz, and as is the going trend for young, successful quarterbacks, he’ll assuredly command more money than any other player at his position has ever received. A $30 million-per-year salary to a quarterback can cripple the rest of the team, but thankfully, the Eagles do have arguably the best salary cap master in the business in Howie Roseman.
The Eagles entered this offseason in salary cap trouble, but a few easy moves by Roseman trimmed the cap hits and converted base salaries to signing bonuses. How about the 2019 season though? And what about 2020? What can the Eagles expect their cap situation to look like if we project a full offseason ahead or even two? It’s admittedly a difficult task to do so, but here’s a projection at what the roster and cap situations might look like by 2020.
All contract figures are per Spotrac.com.
Quarterback: This offseason alone, we’ve seen three record-breaking contracts by quarterbacks. Jimmy Garoppolo signed a five-year, $137.5 million deal with over $74 million in guarantees, then Kirk Cousins signed a fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million contract, and then Matt Ryan topped that with a five-year deal at $150 million and $100 million of that guaranteed. Realistically, if Ryan signed a contract at 5/150/100, we can probably expect Carson Wentz to be at 6/185/110. This is, assuming Wentz returns at full health in 2018 and shows no signs of regression. Committing so much money to a quarterback isn’t necessarily a death blow to a team; it’s a death blow if your quarterback is Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, or Joe Flacco, but if you have a future league MVP, that’s easy money. Howie Roseman will find a way to spread the guarantees out and lower the per-year cap hits, and remember that contracts usually start with lower money per year and increase steadily (example: $26M, $28.5M, $30.5M, $33M, etc). However bad Wentz’s deal looks to be initially, don’t panic. Roseman is an absolute master at keeping an organization under the salary cap. Nick Foles won’t likely be back in 2020, so it’s reasonable to think the team will be paying a backup around $2 million or so. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $28 million
Running Back: Nothing about the way the Eagles run their team suggests they will spend big money on a running back. After all, they just won the Super Bowl employing largely a three-headed rotation of LeGarrette Blount (veteran minimum), Jay Ajayi (rookie contract), and Corey Clement (rookie contract). Blount left in free agency and Ajayi will probably walk after the 2018 season. Veteran Darren Sproles was re-signed to a cheap deal for ’18, but he won’t be a factor in 2020. Clement is set to hit free agency before ’20, so Roseman may work out a cheap, multi-year deal for him. Expect a mid-round or even high-round draft pick to be spent on a running back in 2019. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $4.5 million, Total so far: $32.5 million
Wide Receiver: Alshon Jeffery’s current four-year, $52 million extension sees him with a near-$16 million cap hit in 2020. There’s no way Roseman will allow that to happen; Jeffery will either be released before the season at a $6 million dead money charge or his contract will be restructured to lower the per-cap hit and spread the guaranteed money out. I’ll lean toward the latter, and assign Jeffery a cap hit of $10 million in 2020. Nelson Agholor is trending toward an extension, probably one worth about $45 million over four years. We’ll count him as a $9 million cap hit in 2020. Mack Hollins will be playing out the final year of his rookie deal and we’ll assume a relatively high draft pick from 2019 or 2020 is earning about $3-4 million. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $26 million, Total so far: $58.5 million
Tight End: Zach Ertz will probably be a multi-time Pro Bowler by 2020 and he’ll be entering the fourth year of his five-year, $42.5 million deal by then. We’ll say Roseman restructures his projected $11.5 million cap hit and lowers it to about $9 million but signs him to a new extension with guaranteed money through about 2022. Even if we assume Dallas Goedert is a success, he will still be on his rookie deal in ’20. That’s a $1.5 million cap hit, and we’ll give another $700,000 to the third tight end. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $11.2 million, Total so far: $69.7 million
Offensive Tackle: It’s remarkable that the Eagles are bringing back the ageless Jason Peters for the 2018 season, but don’t expect him to still be on the roster by 2020. As it stands now, Peters’ contract expires after ’19, and it would take a near-miracle to see him earn another extension. We’ll assume the left tackle of the future is not Halapoulivaati Vaitai and rather a future high draft pick; that’s a $2.2 million base salary we’ll assign to the position for 2020. Lane Johnson is in the midst of a comfortable $56 million contract and set to earn $13.5 million in ’20, which Roseman will lower to $11 million by extending the guaranteed money. A backup swing tackle might earn another $2 million against the cap. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $15.2 million, Total so far: $84.9 million
Guard: Brandon Brooks signed a five-year, $40 million deal before 2016, and he was a major producer for the 2017 Super Bowl champions. It’s not unreasonable to see him bring home his projected $11.3 million salary in 2020, but more likely that Roseman does the same for Brooks as he will do for Johnson. Whether the second guard spot is manned by Stefen Wisniewski or a future draft pick or another alternative, it’s reasonable to think that the player will earn about $4 million. Add $2 million for a pair of backups. Position Cap Hit in 2020: $15.3 million, Total so far: $100.2 million
Center: Jason Kelce was probably pretty close to being cut last offseason, but turned in his finest year as a pro and then capped it off with the speech heard ‘round the world. Kelce would need a new contract to still be on the team in 2020, but let’s say it happens and that he’s making $8 million, plus a $1 million backup who can play center and guard. Position Cap Hit: $9 million, Total so far: $109.2 million
Defensive End: This will be an interesting position to monitor going forward. Brandon Graham will certainly need a new contract after 2018 (maybe even this coming training camp), and it’s not unreasonable to think he could command $14-15 million per year on a four-year deal. Derek Barnett looks to be the real deal, but let’s keep him on the final year of his rookie contract in 2020 before we extend him. Whether or not Josh Sweat amounts to anything, he’ll still be making under $1 million in ’20. Chris Long will have retired and it’s difficult to see Michael Bennett still being around, but let’s say a player on his rookie deal is making another $1 million. Position Cap Hit: $18 million, Total so far: $127.2 million
Defensive Tackle: Fletcher Cox is the best defensive player on the team, and a guy you build your front core around. He’s due to make over $20 million against the cap in 2020. That won’t happen because Roseman will restructure the deal, but we can project Cox for a solid $14 million against the cap. Timmy Jernigan’s four-year, $48 million contract from last offseason is essentially a two-year deal, and I predict injuries will lead to his being released prior to the ’20 season. Haloti Ngata will be long retired by then, which means the rest of the defensive tackles will come from upcoming draft picks and veteran acquisitions. We’ll project another $5.5 million to the position. Projected Cap Hit: $19.5 million, Total so far: $146.7 million
Linebacker: Mychal Kendricks was just released, which means the two linebackers on the team with a long-term future are Nigel Bradham and Jordan Hicks. Bradham’s fresh five-year, $40 million contract shows a $9 million cap hit for 2020, but he can easily be released beforehand at little cap penalty. Meanwhile, Hicks would need a new deal to still be on the team in ’20, and he would probably command about $9-10 million per year, although a nice run of injury-free games would help his bid. It’s likely that the Eagles retain either Bradham or Hicks in 2020, but not both. We’ll go with a one-year rental at $3 million for the other starting position and a rookie for the third. Factor in a few backups, and we’re probably looking at about $14 million for the position. Projected Cap Hit: $14 million, Total so far: $160.7 million
Cornerback: This is the toughest position to project. There are a handful of young players on the roster that could theoretically command sizeable contracts, especially when you look around the league and see what other starters are earning. A full 13 cornerbacks are set to earn over $10 million in 2018. Trumaine Johnson just inked a five-year deal with the New York Jets worth over $14 million per season. Kyle Fuller is making the same for Chicago. With that being said, it’s not unreasonable to project similar contracts for Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby. With what the Eagles spent in draft capital on Sidney Jones (second-round pick in 2017) and Rasul Douglas (third-round pick in 2017), they won’t bring back both Mills and Darby. It will likely be Mills, because he’s under team control for longer, which means they won’t have to pay him until later. We’ll put Mills at a four-year, $58 million deal that pays him $10 million in 2020. Jones and Douglas may eventually get extensions, but they shouldn’t affect the 2020 cap salary cap. Projected Cap Hit: $16 million, Total so far: $176.7 million
Safety: Malcolm Jenkins isn’t the best player on the Eagles’ defense (Cox) or even the second-best (Graham), but it’s difficult to envision this team without him. Jenkins will be on the final year of his current deal when 2020 rolls around, and the Eagles will have to decide whether it’s worth bringing back an almost 34-year-old safety in 2021. But for the sake of a 2020 cap hit, we’ll count on Jenkins being here at his scheduled $9.25 million cap hit. Rodney McLeod has been a productive player, but he won’t still be here in 2020 at a $10.9 million cap hit. He will either be restructured at a lesser deal or released – I think released is the more likely option with the team spending a fairly high draft pick on a safety in 2019 or 2020. We’ll keep Chris Maragos here as a $2.5 million backup and special teams ace, plus another late-round rookie for cheap. Projected Cap Hit: $14.5 million, Total so far: $191.2 million
Special Teams: Jake Elliott had a remarkable rookie year, especially considering the Eagles acquired him for nothing when Cincinnati dumped him in training camp. Elliott would need a new contract to come back for 2020 (or even 2019), but we’ll give him one that pays him $3 million in ’20. Whether or not Cameron Johnston is still the punter in 2020, the team won’t spend more than $750,000 to $1 million on the position. Let’s give long snapper Rick Lovato a raise to about $900,000. Projected Cap Hit: $4.7 million, Total so far: $195.9 million
So that’s a projected $195.9 million to be spent on the 2020 Eagles. We don’t yet know what the salary cap will be but here are the last four salary caps with projections in 2019 and 2020 based on current trends.
So that puts the Eagles about $3.3 million under the cap if we go with $199.2 million. It’s an inexact science, and it’s certainly difficult to predict what Roseman will do. We know Wentz isn’t going anywhere, but realistically, anything else could happen. Maybe the Eagles will make an offer for Le’Veon Bell if he plays out 2018 on the franchise tag again. Maybe the team will trade for a high-profile wide receiver or defensive player. You can’t predict the NFL, but it’s pretty safe to say Roseman will find a way to make Wentz’s contract work.
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