As we grow close to one-third of the way through the 2019 MLB season, we can know some things for certain. Cody Bellinger won’t possibly end the year over a .400 batting average. Mitch Garver won’t finish with a Ruthian-like slugging percentage. And Joey Gallo can’t conceivably keep up this strikeout pace… can he?
But we can say with fairly high certainty which two players will be leading the National League MVP race come September, and anyone who follows even an element of baseball has to know Mike Trout will be near the lead from the AL’s side. Which other players will emerge as frontrunners though? I took a look at the five players from most league that we can most expect to see near the top of the hunt in four months.
American League
5. Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
Would voters actually side with a player who strikes out at a historically unprecedented rate, one who may even set the single-season strikeout record this season? Joey Gallo has been called out via strikes 64 times already, putting him on pace to top Mark Reynolds’ single-season record of 223 by two. Then again, Gallo is also ripping the cover off the ball. He’s hit 15 home runs already and leads the league in slugging percentage (.687) and OPS (1.113), and he’s been the offensive catalyst for a Texas team that leads all of baseball in runs scored.
4. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Losing Jose Altuve to a left hamstring strain would seem to be a devastating loss for the Houston Astros, but the entire team has stepped up in his absence. They’ve won nine of 10 games to claim the best overall record in major league baseball, and Alex Bregman has solidified himself as arguably the game’s most talented all-around third baseman. The former No. 2 overall pick is batting slashing .265/.388/.554 with 14 home runs and a 152 adjusted OPS that ranks seventh in the league. If he keeps it up, he’s on track to earn consecutive top-five MVP finishes.
3. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
The league’s reigning MVP, Mookie Betts overcame an uncharacteristic slow start and now finds himself comfortably among the American League leaders in WAR (2.1). He’s batted .345/.455/.536 over the last 28 games and will likely put up his fourth straight 20 HR-20 SB season along with typically strong defense in right field. Other than Mike Trout, this is your odds-on AL MVP favorite for the next seven years.
2. George Springer, Houston Astros
As recently as their 2017 World Series title season, the Houston Astros were fueled by pint-sized second basemen Jose Altuve. But it’s becoming George Springer’s team. Springer currently leads the AL in home runs, RBIs, runs scored, and total bases, and he’s been downright unstoppable in May – eight home runs, a 1.270 OPS, and seven multi-hit games so far. He’s been at his best in clutch situations, putting up a 1.093 OPS with runners in scoring position and a 1.224 OPS when his team is trailing this year.
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Mike Trout has held the honor of Best Player in Baseball since he became a full-time player in 2012, and there’s no slowing down even after signing the richest contract in professional sports history. Trout has always been a premier power-speed guy, but recently, he’s taken his plate discipline to a whole other level. He currently leads the league in walks and OBP (his fourth straight year for the latter), but he’s impressively cut down on his strikeout rate for the fifth year in a row, this time down to just 15.1 from 20.4 in ’18. The Angels won’t likely make the playoffs but that didn’t stop Trout from winning the award in 2016. In fact, Trout is on pace for 10.5 WAR, which would tie his single-season best from both ’12 and ’16. No position player in the last 50 years has hit that mark and failed to win the MVP.
National League
5. Ronald Acuna, Jr., Atlanta Braves
Last year, Ronald Acuna, Jr. won the National League Rookie of the Year award at the ripe age of 20, and this year, he has a chance to follow it up with an MVP award. Acuna combines exceptional power with above-average speed and top defense in left field, and he’s taken well to center field with Ender Inciarte’s injury. With the way Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are hitting the cover off the ball, Acuna likely won’t do better than a third-place finish. Still, he has quite a future and he’s on track to become the first 21-year-old NL player to put up at least 7.5 WAR since Cesar Cedeno in 1972.
4. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant entered this season coming off career-worsts in home runs (13), batting average (.272), and WAR (1.9), and he was hitting a paltry .217 through 15 games in 2019. Since then, he’s rejuvenated himself to the tune of the player that won league MVP three years ago; he’s been one of the hottest players in the game in May and he’s raised his OPS from .679 to .957 while helping the Chicago Cubs win 16 of their last 22 games. He plays a solid third base but shows enough defensive versatility to contribute in both corner outfield spots and first base as well.
3. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Javier Baez is a unique player, that’s for sure. He’s primarily a second basemen who shifted to shortstop this season in the wake of Addison Russell’s suspension, but he’s also played over 600 career innings at third base. Baez is a valuable defensive player who hit 34 home runs and drove in 111 runs last year, finishing second in the 2018 MVP voting. He’s on track to match the power numbers, and this time he’s upped his batting average to .323 while holding down a more difficult defensive position. What makes Baez so exclusive is his success at the plate despite porous plate discipline. A 0.21 BB:K rate would be a historically awful number for an MVP candidate and actually puts Baez in the bottom six among all qualifying NL position players.
2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
It’s hard to believe that the reigning National League MVP is on pace for a ridiculous 62 home runs in 2019 – and won’t win the MVP award. Yelich went from being an above-average player in Miami to being an unheralded superstar a year ago to now being a top-three hitter in all of baseball. His rise to superstardom has led to him already being intentionally walked 11 times in just 44 games. He hits for power, hits for average (.325), plays good defense, runs the bases extremely well (nine steals in just nine attempts), and remarkably enough, still isn’t the favorite to win the MVP award.
1. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cody Bellinger is the reason Christian Yelich isn’t the MVP favorite, as he’s having the kind of season that puts him in the greatest-season-of-all-time conversation. Bellinger is batting .404/.487/.783 with 17 home runs, 44 RBIs, and seven steals, plus league-leading totals in runs scored (43), hits (67), total bases (130), and OPS (1.271). He’s accumulated 4.7 WAR to date, which puts him on pace for 15.54. Babe Ruth currently holds the single-season record at 14.1. Mike Trout has never topped 10.5.
Bellinger’s 238 adjusted OPS would be the highest any hitter other than Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds has ever put up. His .404 batting average won’t stay at that magical number, but we’ve been thinking for weeks that he’ll drop under .400, and he’s managed to bat .441 over his last 10 games. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll finish the season with a .404 average, 56 home runs, 145 RBIs, and 142 runs scored.
The most perplexingly impressive aspect of Bellinger’s season is his defense – per Baseball Reference, he’s saved 11 runs in the field this year, which puts him on pace for 36.4 runs saved, a number that would rank as the seventh-best total in a season in MLB history. When you combine amazing offensive results with amazing defensive results for a first-place Dodgers club, you have your easy MVP.
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