Even the best experts who dedicate their lives to grading and evaluating collegiate players still make draft day mistakes. For every first round Hall of Famer, there are numerous busts.
It’s much easier to look back 18 months later and re-evaluate the draft. And then it’s even more fun to do it again a few years later and see where the players stand. For this sake, every team keeps their original draft slots – so you’ll see Cleveland picking twice in the top five and both Buffalo and Baltimore with multiple first round selections.
1. Cleveland Browns
Actual Pick: QB Baker Mayfield
Re-Draft Pick: QB Lamar Jackson
After his dynamic rookie season, it looked like Cleveland had finally found its franchise quarterback. Baker Mayfield completed close to 64 percent of his passes, set a new rookie record with 27 touchdown passes, and seemed likely to put the Browns back on the NFL map for good.
And then year two hit – despite the addition of All-Pro talent Odell Beckham, Jr., Mayfield has regressed mightily; that, coupled with Lamar Jackson’s rise to superstardom gives Jackson the No. 1 slot on this re-draft board.
Jackson has combined solid passing with electrifying running ability that leaves defenders gasping for air and even Bill Belichick-coached teams victim to 17-point losses. For this fictitious article’s sake, let’s hope Cleveland doesn’t screw up a royal talent like Jackson.
2. New York Giants
Actual Pick: RB Saquon Barkley
Re-Draft Pick: RB Saquon Barkley
GM Dave Gettleman’s love for running backs is no secret, as he’s drafted a running back in the top 10 in consecutive years, albeit for different teams – and they’re literally the two best running backs in the NFL. The Giants took a lot of heat from the media for picking Barkley over Sam Darnold, yet all of a sudden Darnold isn’t trending the way we all expected, while Barkley continues to play at an All-Pro level.
The Giants double down on Barkley in this re-draft. In a league where the phrase is overused, Barkley is a generational talent at running back. He’s a physical freak who totaled 2,000 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. Picking Barkley does mean the Giants need to address the quarterback situation in ’19, but he also gives them what should be at least a seven-year starter at running back.
3. New York Jets
Actual Pick: QB Sam Darnold
Re-Draft Pick: QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold has had a rough 2019, plagued by mono and having to play for a horrendous New York Jets organization. He throws too many interceptions and takes too many sacks and he’s 5-13 as a starter. But he’s also still just 22 years old.
We’ll give him to the Jets again in this re-draft. Franchise quarterbacks can take time to develop. Eli Manning had a dismal rookie year. Alex Smith took some time to develop. Even Drew Brees was pretty mediocre for the first several years. Darnold has time.
4. Cleveland Browns
Actual Pick: CB Denzel Ward
Re-Draft Pick: RB Nick Chubb
It was a great surprise when Cleveland picked Denzel Ward over Bradley Chubb with the fourth overall selection, and Ward has actually been a good player thus far. But in this re-draft, the Browns picked Lamar Jackson first, and he’s a running quarterback who needs a powerful running back to pair with.
Nick Chubb is that guy. He’s a special athlete who posted a 98th percentile SPARQ score in the 2017 draft. Chubb runs a 4.52 at 227 pounds and tested in the 90th percentile in both speed and burst. So far in the NFL, he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry in each season. If he finishes 2019 with that YPC average, he’ll be the third player in league history to do so in each of his first two seasons (min. 150 carries).
5. Denver Broncos
Actual Pick: EDGE Bradley Chubb
Re-Draft Pick: EDGE Bradley Chubb
It’s tempting to want to give Baker Mayfield to John Elway here. Since Peyton Manning retired in spring 2016, the Broncos have cycled through a carousel of quarterbacks from Trevor Siemian to the failed Paxton Lynch draft pick to Case Keenum (and Joe Flacco, but he wouldn’t be on the team at the time of this re-draft).
Bradley Chubb is a much safer pick for Denver here. He was their actual pick and he’s been a bonafide stud pass rusher through two NFL seasons. Even with his season-ending ACL injury, Chubb has still racked up 13 sacks, 27 QB hits, and three forced fumbles in 20 games. He projects to be a perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher.
6. Indianapolis Colts
Actual Pick: G Quenton Nelson
Re-Draft Pick: G Quenton Nelson
Quenton Nelson was a monster producer as a rookie in 2018, grading as PFF’s sixth overall guard and earning First-Team AP All-Pro honors. He’s been even better this year, rating as the best run blocker in the league and helping the Colts stay in the AFC South race even with the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck.
Offensive linemen can play forever and have a surprisingly low year-to-year injury rate. He should start for over a decade for this team.
7. Buffalo Bills
Actual Pick: QB Josh Allen
Re-Draft Pick: S Derwin James
You’d think a team that is 6-2 in the second year of a quarterback’s tenure would want to pick that quarterback in a re-draft. And Buffalo would probably publicly say they would. But there are too many red flags with Josh Allen – the Bills are 30th in passing DVOA. Allen has the lowest passer rating on deep balls among all qualifying quarterbacks. And he has a pretty alarming fumbling problem.
Let’s go with the best available defensive player at this selection. Derwin James is going to be a top-five safety in this league. He may be already, even with his 2019 injury. The Chargers play James everywhere – in his career, he’s lined up more at linebacker than free safety, but he’s also spent time at cornerback, slot corner, and strong safety. He’s the ultimate defensive chess piece, and he would solidify a pretty good Buffalo defense.
8. Chicago Bears
Actual Pick: ILB Roquan Smith
Re-Draft Pick: ILB Leighton Vander Esch
The 2018 draft had a ridiculous amount of talented inside linebackers chosen – you’ll see five in this year’s re-draft version. In real life, Chicago drafted Roquan Smith, a player they employ at multiple spots all over the field. Smith has been a terrific player, but Leighton Vander Esch is every bit as versatile and he’s a better linebacker.
As a rookie for Dallas a year ago, Vander Esch lined up primarily as a box linebacker, but also spent 87 snaps at slot cornerback, 14 snaps at cornerback, eight at free safety, and 13 at strong safety. He made the Pro Bowl, registered a ridiculous 140 tackles (102 solo) and recorded two interceptions.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Actual Pick: OT Mike McGlinchey
Re-Draft Pick: S Minkah Fitzpatrick
It’s difficult to pass on a quality offensive tackle like Mike McGlinchey, but the staple of the Kyle Shanahan zone running scheme is the interior offensive linemen, not the tackles. And another defensive playmaker to go with that front seven is hard to turn down.
Minkah Fitzpatrick gives San Francisco basically a better version of 2014 first-rounder Jimmie Ward. Fitzpatrick’s talent has been on full display in Pittsburgh, where he’s recorded four interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and a 96-yard pick-six since being traded from Miami. His versatility would allow DC Robert Saleh to employ him all over the field.
10. Arizona Cardinals
Actual Pick: QB Josh Rosen
Re-Draft Pick: ILB Darius Leonard
Perhaps no quarterback in recent memory has entered the league with less of a chance to succeed than Josh Rosen; still, there’s nothing we’ve seen from Rosen to suggest he’s worth taking here in a re-draft. It’s better to do without a franchise quarterback for now and build up the rest of the roster than take Rosen.
Darius Leonard was an early second-round pick of Indianapolis, and he’s been a sensation as an off-ball linebacker. To say he was a playmaker as a rookie is an understatement – Leonard led the NFL in tackles, picked off two passes, forced four fumbles, recovered two more, and registered seven sacks. He might develop into the playmaker that Deone Bucannon never became in Arizona.
11. Miami Dolphins
Actual Pick: CB/S Minkah Fitzpatrick
Re-Draft Pick: CB Denzel Ward
With Minkah Fitzpatrick off the board, Miami looks to take the next-best corner available in Denzel Ward, a player who actually went fourth overall in the 2018 draft.
As a rookie in 2018, Ward started 12 games, forcing five takeaways (three interceptions and two fumble recoveries), while earning a Pro Bowl selection. He’s not particularly big for a corner (5’11”, 190) but has incredible speed (4.32 40) and can blanket opposing receivers – he’s allowing just a 47.6 completion percentage this season, per PFF.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Actual Pick: DT Vita Vea
Re-Draft Pick: OT Mike McGlinchey
Vita Vea hasn’t been a bad player by any means for Tampa Bay; he’s started 16 games in two seasons so far and he’s a solid 350-pound force in the middle of the line. But Mike McGlinchey plays a more premium position and he’s played better, despite falling in this re-draft.
McGlinchey started all 16 games as a rookie before missing a month this year with a knee scope. Still, McGlinchey would be the long-term replacement for Demar Dotson, a solid player who has missed 19 games due to injury over the last five seasons.
13. Washington Redskins
Actual Pick: NT Da’Ron Payne
Re-Draft Pick: QB Baker Mayfield
Would Washington take Baker Mayfield in a re-draft? Remember, they don’t know they’ll take Dwayne Haskins a year later (and so far, it’s not looking too positive for Haskins). Mayfield had the talent to go first overall and he put together a promising rookie campaign.
Even with his glaring year two struggles, it’s a gamble worth taking for the Redskins. Mayfield would learn from Jay Gruden, a two-decade Arena Football League quarterback who did turn Kirk Cousins into at one point the highest-paid player in NFL history.
14. New Orleans Saints
Actual Pick: EDGE Marcus Davenport
Re-Draft Pick: CB Jaire Alexander
In real life, New Orleans traded away an entire extra first-round pick to move up to acquire edge rusher Marcus Davenport, a massive price to pay to just move up in one round for a non-quarterback. Davenport is coming on as a quality player in year two, but Jaire Alexander would solidify the cornerback position across from Marshon Lattimore.
Alexander is a two-year NFL starter and PFF’s ninth-best cover corner in 2019. He’s picked off just two passes in 22 games but he’s also recorded 22 passes defensed.
15. Oakland Raiders
Actual Pick: OT Kolton Miller
Re-Draft Pick: OT Orlando Brown
Kolton Miller is a massive man at 6’8” and well over 300 pounds, but Orlando Brown is also a massive man – and a better offensive tackle. Brown earned a positive PFF grade as a rookie starter last year and he’s doing it again this year.
Brown’s value is most evident in Baltimore’s rushing offense. This unit has averaged over 200 rushing yards per game; in fact, they’re on pace to break the single-season record for rushing yards by a team (3,165 by New England in 1978). Put Brown on Oakland and you give Derek Carr a massive tackle to keep him standing and open lanes in the running game.
16. Buffalo Bills
Actual Pick: ILB Tremaine Edmunds
Re-Draft Pick: QB Josh Allen
With their second pick in the top 16, the Bills grab their hopeful franchise quarterback in Josh Allen. Allen is still a work in progress as a passer, but he’s seen an eight percent increase in his completion percentage from a year ago, he’s thrown more touchdowns than interceptions, and he’s a threat to score a touchdown every time he runs with the ball.
Pro Football Reference shows Allen is also making better decisions with the ball – he graded as throwing a bad throw on 24.4 percent of passes a year ago; that number is down to 17.7 this year. He’s also in the top 10 in aDOT (average depth of throw) at 9.1, meaning the organization is trusting him more to make big throws.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Actual Pick: S Derwin James
Re-Draft Pick: C Frank Ragnow
The only way the Chargers get Derwin James in a re-draft is a massive trade up, and that’s not happening in a fictitious draft. What the Chargers could use though is a new center, especially with Mike Pouncey having been living on his reputation for several years now.
Frank Ragnow has flown under the radar in Detroit, but in what is admittedly a down year for NFL centers, he’s actually the top-rated center in the entire league in 2019, per PFF.
18. Green Bay Packers
Actual Pick: CB Jaire Alexander
Re-Draft Pick: WR Courtland Sutton
Ted Thompson’s longtime philosophy as GM of the Packers was to only select defensive players in the first round, and new GM Brian Gutekunst has followed that trend so far in a two-year sample size.
We’ll break that with Courtland Sutton, though. When you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback, you need to surround him with as many game-breaking wide receivers as possible, and Sutton has emerged as a playmaker so far in 2019. Rodgers and Sutton would make beautiful music together in Green Bay.
19. Dallas Cowboys
Actual Pick: ILB Leighton Vander Esch
Re-Draft Pick: ILB Roquan Smith
There’s no logical reason Roquan Smith dropped this far down the list on a re-draft; it just worked out that way. What the Cowboys are getting though is a really good player, one very similar to Leighton Vander Esch and close to as versatile.
The Bears utilize Smith primarily as an outside linebacker, although he offers the positional versatility to line up at middle linebacker and even slot corner as needed. Smith had five sacks and an interception last year, and while he hasn’t been making the plays this year, he is still just 22 years old with 21 career starts to his name already.
20. Detroit Lions
Actual Pick: C Frank Ragnow
Re-Draft Pick: TE Dallas Goedert
If Detroit could have Frank Ragnow again, they would gladly take him again, but he’s gone by this point in a re-draft. Taking Dallas Goedert would fix Detroit’s tight end problems and give Matthew Stafford another weapon in the passing game.
Detroit’s actual tight ends in 2018 were dreadful. Levine Toilolo and Luke Willson combined for just 34 receptions and 350 receiving yards all year. Goedert still plays second fiddle to Zach Ertz in Philly but he has the talent to be a No. 1 tight end, and he would embrace that role in Philadelphia.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Actual Pick: C/G Billy Price
Re-Draft Pick: OT Braden Smith
Cincinnati took Billy Price with the 21st overall selection last year, and he’s already been benched and then moved to guard. The Bengals desperately – like desperately, really really desperately – need offensive linemen.
Meanwhile, the Colts got themselves an every week starter at offensive tackle, one who has started 21 games since being drafted in 2018. Smith would be a massive upgrade over Bobby Hart, who has contributed negatively to a Bengals offense that is threatening to shatter the all-time single-season rushing record for futility.
22. Tennessee Titans
Actual Pick: ILB Rashaan Evans
Re-Draft Pick: ILB Tremaine Edmunds
It’s not that Rashaan Evans has been bad for Tennessee. He just doesn’t make any plays. He’s played 24 career games without an interception, forced fumble, fumble recovery, and just half a sack.
In sticking with the inside linebacker idea, we’ll give Tennessee Tremaine Edmunds, a better version of Evans. Edmunds has started 23 games in the league and he’s still a year younger than Evans was when he got drafted! Edmunds plays all three linebacker positions and fills in at slot corner, free safety, and strong safety as needed.
23. New England Patriots
Actual Pick: OT Isaiah Wynn
Re-Draft Pick: DT Vita Vea
It feels almost immoral to change Bill Belichick’s actual draft selection, but we have absolutely no idea if Isaiah Wynn can play left tackle or not. He’s started and finished exactly one game in his NFL career, played in two, and missed 92 percent of the regular season contests so far due to injury.
Vita Vea might be Belichick’s new Vince Wilfork. He’s a 350-pound lineman who actually can rush the passer surprisingly well for a player of that size. Oh, and an interesting fact about Vea: his full name is actually Tevita Tuli’aki’ono Tuipulotu Mosese Va’hae Fehoko Faletau Vea.
24. Carolina Panthers
Actual Pick: WR D.J. Moore
Re-Draft Pick: WR D.J. Moore
There are three quality wide receivers Carolina could pick from – D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark, and Calvin Ridley. Moore leads the trio in receptions (100) and receiving yards (1,352), and he’s also a legitimate threat to run the football (197 rushing yards at a ridiculous 13.1 yards per attempt).
And considering Carolina picked Moore in real life, they’ll double down here and take him again. Moore isn’t built like your prototypical No. 1 wide receiver, but he’s a playmaker who offers high upside and has an eerie comparison to Steve Smith.
25. Baltimore Ravens
Actual Pick: TE Hayden Hurst
Re-Draft Pick: WR Calvin Ridley
If it seemed odd at the time that Baltimore took a 25-year-old tight end with just three career collegiate touchdowns to his name, it looks even worse now. What the Ravens do need is a receiving weapon and they’ll go with Calvin Ridley, a limited athlete at wide receiver who has a knack for the end zone.
Ridley scored 10 touchdowns in 2018, becoming just the eighth rookie wide receiver in the Super Bowl era to catch at least 10 scores. The Ravens don’t have Lamar Jackson yet if we’re doing this in 2018 but they now have a playmaking wide receiver for Joe Flacco’s replacement.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Actual Pick: WR Calvin Ridley
Re-Draft Pick: WR D.J. Chark
Matt Ryan doesn’t get Calvin Ridley in this re-draft, but he gets a playmaking wide receiver who can take the top off a defense. Chark ran a ridiculous 4.34 40 coming out of college and after a disappointing rookie campaign, he’s breaking out in 2019.
Chark has posted a 43/692/6 receiving line so far through nine games of primarily a sixth-round rookie quarterback in Gardner Minshew II. Imagine what he would do with Ryan.
27. Seattle Seahawks
Actual Pick: RB Rashaad Penny
Re-Draft Pick: S Terrell Edmunds
If we go back to 2018, Seattle was probably already internally preparing for safety Earl Thomas to leave. And the team had just seen both Richard Sherman (released) and Kam Chancellor (retirement) exit the once-legendary Legion of Boom.
Terrell Edmunds comes from a football family – his father was a two-time Pro Bowl tight end, his brother Tremaine was a 2018 first-round pick, and his other brother Trey is a running back for the Steelers. Terrell would help solidify Seattle’s secondary and he has the versatility to play everywhere from outside linebacker to slot corner to wide corner to free safety to strong safety.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Actual Pick: S Terrell Edmunds
Re-Draft Pick: WR Michael Gallup
The Steelers missed out on getting Terrell Edmunds in a re-draft by one pick. They could go with a massive interior lineman like Da’Ron Payne but their defensive line is already stacked with Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, and Javon Hargrave.
Michael Gallup gives Ben Roethlisberger another pass-catching weapon. Gallup only posted a 29th percentile SPARQ score but still produces as a quality No. 2 in the NFL. In fact, PFF has charted him at 2.32 yards per route run this year, a higher number than DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham, Jr.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Actual Pick: DT Taven Bryan
Re-Draft Pick: EDGE Marcus Davenport
Taven Bryan may be the least-known player from the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. He’s not a starter but still plays regularly, so you can’t yet call him a bust. But in a re-draft, there are far better options than a rotational defensive tackle.
Remember when the Saints traded up to draft Marcus Davenport? So far, his production hasn’t quite lived up to that of a player worth the two first-round picks the Saints paid for him, but he’s still a quality edge rusher. Davenport is a full-time starter this year and his ridiculous athleticism (4.58 40 at 264 pounds) suggests he will be a superstar as he continues to develop more pass-rushing moves.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Actual Pick: CB Mike Hughes
Re-Draft Pick: OT Brian O’Neill
We’re still learning what kind of a player Mike Hughes is but he doesn’t possess particularly impressive size, he didn’t test particularly well via the workout metrics, and so far, he’s still a rotational player two seasons in.
In the third round of that year’s draft though, Minnesota selected an offensive lineman named Brian O’Neill, and he’s worth taking at selection #30 in a re-draft. O’Neill is a ridiculous athlete, running a 4.82 at close to 300 pounds. He’s a 20-game NFL starter at this point. This year, PFF rates him No. 18 among 75 qualifying offensive tackles as a pass blocker and No. 13 as a run blocker.
31. New England Patriots
Actual Pick: RB Sony Michel
Re-Draft Pick: RB Sony Michel
It’s really difficult to get inside Bill Belichick’s mind. He’s a notoriously poor drafter of skill position players – look no further than Laurence Maroney, Chad Jackson, or Aaron Dobson. So seeing him select a running back in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft was surprising, to say the least.
But look at it this way. Belichick gets a quality workhorse for four years at a discount price from what you’d pay for a free agent back. And while Michel has a limited skill set and doesn’t catch passes, his value was never more evident than last year’s playoffs, and that’s why the Patriots double down and take him again. He averaged a 24/112/2 rushing line in three postseason games, making life abundantly easier for Tom Brady in the playoffs. Watch the Patriots use him that way again in this coming year’s playoffs.
32. Baltimore Ravens
Actual Pick: QB Lamar Jackson
Re-Draft Pick: G Will Hernandez
There’s no Lamar Jackson available for the Ravens in the re-draft, which means they’re stuck with Joe Flacco for another year. And it’s not worth taking either Mason Rudolph or Kyle Allen at this spot.
So we’ll go with guard Will Hernandez, who actually went a few picks later to the New York Giants. Hernandez has started all 25 games so far and he has massive size at 327 pounds. Considering the Ravens are actually starting a sixth-rounder from the same year named Bradley Bozeman, why not go with a first-round talent in Hernandez?
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