As a football junkie, I read dozens of articles per week on anything from fantasy football projections to Sunday recaps to power rankings of the best head coaches in the game. Peter King’s MMQB column has long been one of my absolute favorites, even if I don’t always agree with what he writes.
His recent article on Why Sam Bradford is MVP intrigued yet baffled me. As a Philadelphia Eagles fan who suffered through a disappointing 2015 Bradford campaign, I’ve seen Bradford’s limitations. He is what he is. He’s a classic game manager who has struggled his whole career to stay healthy. He’s never been able to elevate his teammates, he’s never been to the playoffs, and he’s never come close to making the Pro Bowl.
That doesn’t mean Bradford can’t be having a productive season in the right environment. I think this is exactly what GM Rick Spielman had in mind when he traded a first-rounder for Bradford. But Bradford is certainly not the MVP of the league, and I lay out my reasons below after we first discuss what exactly an MVP is.
The age-old MVP debate still reigns supreme today: is it the most valuable player or the most outstanding player? In discussing Bradford, I think it’s pretty clear he’s neither of those two, but still, let’s go over what an MVP really is. Last year’s league MVP, Cam Newton, led the Carolina Panthers to a 15-1 record and accounted for 45 touchdowns despite losing his best wide receiver (Kelvin Benjamin) in the preseason. You take away Newton from that Panthers team, and they probably don’t make the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The last three players to win NFL MVP – and seven of the last eight – have all been quarterbacks, with the lone exception being a freakishly good 2,000-yard season from this generation’s best running back, Adrian Peterson. It’s usually a combination of the player who is the best player but also one whose value is derived from the fact that his team would have no chance if he were to be injured. A career underachiever, Bradford doesn’t usually get lumped into an award that includes Supercam, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers as its recent winners, but let’s take a look at his 2016 candidacy and see what we find.
The first argument against Bradford’s quarter-season 2016 MVP campaign is the fact that he has missed a quarter of the season so far. That’s a huge blow to any argument for him as MVP so far. It’s not Bradford’s fault – he didn’t get traded in time to learn the playbook for Week 1 – but in a four-game MVP sample, I want my MVP pick to have at least played in all four of his team’s games.
When he’s been on the field, Bradford has stepped in nicely for injured starter Teddy Bridgewater. His stats are very good – no interceptions, a 69.5 completion percentage, and a 105.5 passer rating; in fact, they’re the best numbers of his career. He hasn’t turned the ball over yet. He isn’t taking too many sacks, despite a very porous offensive line that lost starting left tackle Matt Kalil. He’s done this despite a rushing attack that is dead-last in the league, having lost future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson (although AP was flat out awful when he did play). And if you like QB wins, Bradford is 3-0 this year.
It’s also so much easier when you always have the lead and when you know just how good your defense is – Mike Zimmer’s unit is second in points allowed, seventh in yards allowed, and first in turnovers generated. That takes the pressure off Bradford, which is good, because Bradford traditionally hasn’t responded too well when he’s been forced to carry the load.
Throughout his career, Bradford has shown to be almost incapable of leading an offense to a high point total. In his six-year NFL career, he’s never led his offense to 30 points in consecutive games. Believe it or not, he’s never even reached 25 in two straight games. In arguably the greatest three-game stretch of his incredibly mediocre career, he has led the 2016 Vikings to an average of 18 points per game (I’m not crediting him for defensive or special teams scores). 18 points scored is below average. Against Carolina in Week 3, he led the Vikings to 13 offensive points. He has set the bar so unbelievably low for himself as a QB that this is considered an MVP season. And if not for an otherworldly defense, he would not be in the MVP conversation.
Bradford ‘beat’ Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Eli Manning in three straight weeks. That’s a nice way of saying that his defense is flat out dominant. Did Bradford sack Rodgers five times and force two turnovers? Did he sack Cam eight times and pick off three passes? Did he hold OBJ to 23 receiving yards? No, he just led his offense to 17, 13, and 24 points.
QBs shouldn’t get credit for ‘beating’ other QBs unless it’s a shootout. Bradford was probably a better trade acquisition than NFL fans everywhere thought he would be, and he’s exceeding expectations so far in Minnesota. Then again, expectations for Bradford are watered down. As long as he stays healthy, doesn’t throw interceptions, and puts 14-17 points on the board, that’s enough to win games in Minnesota.
Let’s play a game. Quarterback A listed below is Bradford, the supposed league MVP in 2016. Quarterback B is someone else, a career backup who is being paid bottom dollar this season.
QB A: 69.5 completion rate, 7.6 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT, 105.5 passer rating, 82.08 QBR, 7.42 ANY/A
QB B: 69.1 completion rate, 7.2 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT, 103.3 passer rating, 82.14 QBR, 7.64 ANY/A
Quarterback B is Brian Hoyer, signal-caller of the 1-3 Chicago Bears. Hoyer has led his offense to an average of 17 points per game, roughly the same as Bradford’s 18 per-game average. The difference is in the defense – Hoyer’s Bears have allowed an average of 22.5 in his two starts, while Bradford’s Vikings have allowed an average of 11.3 per contest.
As I said, it’s so much easier when your defense is good. Couple that with being a former first overall draft pick, and it might be enough to even put you in the MVP conversation. But don’t tell me Hoyer couldn’t do for the Vikings what Bradford is doing. After all, their numbers are scarily identical.
If you want a real league MVP, look no further than Matt Ryan. Ryan leads the league in completion percentage, passing yards, YPA, TDs, passer rating, QBR, and my favorite stat, ANY/A (a stat that, unlike passer rating, takes sacks into consideration). Ryan’s ANY/A is 10.38. The next-best QB is Jimmy Garoppolo (9.33), who has missed half the season. The next-best is Carson Wentz (8.03), who has played one fewer game than the other quarterbacks. An average starting quarterback usually hovers around 6.00. (Bradford’s career mark is at 5.41, and his 7.42 mark this season is eighth-best in the league).
Pro Football Reference doesn’t list ANY/A in its record books but I believe Ryan’s 10.38 would be the greatest mark ever. Peyton Manning’s highest single-season total was 9.78. Tom Brady was 8.88. Aaron Rodgers 9.39. Drew Brees 8.31. So that means Ryan is playing at arguably the greatest pace of any QB in history right now, and he’s doing it with a defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and 32nd in passing TD allowed. They’ve allowed at least 28 points in every game. If Ryan doesn’t put up points, they have no chance. If Bradford had the Atlanta defense, he’d be 0-3. It’s ludicrous to even compare what Bradford is doing to what Ryan is doing this year.
Does Ryan have a top-2 WR in the NFL? Yes. Does that help? Yes. Does that mean he’s ineligible to win the MVP when Tom Brady has won it with Moss/Welker and then later with Gronk, Peyton Manning with Harrison/Wayne and then later with DT/Decker, and Rich Gannon with Jerry Rice/Tim Brown? It shouldn’t.
Derek Carr has been extremely valuable for the Oakland Raiders. He’s completing passes at a 68.0 clip with nine touchdowns to one interception, a 104.6 passer rating, and a 7.72 ANY/A (fourth-best in the league). Carr has started every game and he’s led the Raiders to a 3-1 record, despite an awful defense that rates dead-last in the NFL in yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed per attempt.
Philip Rivers’ numbers are exceptional on a depleted San Diego Chargers team that has 14 players on injured reserve are valuable; you take Rivers away from that roster, and they’re the Cleveland Browns. Drew Brees is on pace for over 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns for a typically frightful-looking New Orleans Saints defense; Brees has led his offense to 30 points on three occasions, and they’re still just 1-3.
Dak Prescott has been a godsend for the Dallas Cowboys with Tony Romo injured. Carson Wentz has been a revelation through three games with the Philadelphia Eagles. When he’s on, Ben Roethlisberger has a case as the best player in football. Andrew Luck does more with less than anyone in the game, although the poor caliber of his team is finally starting to catch up with him. But on the Vikings, where 12 points per game is enough to win? All of those quarterbacks above could do what Bradford is doing, plus Newton, Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, and probably even players like Alex Smith, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Trevor Siemian, of all people.
Bradford is the perfect QB for the 2016 Vikings, because he’s exactly what they need. And that legitimately could take them far in the playoffs. It worked for the 2015 Denver Broncos, who won a Super Bowl on the backs of that defense, despite shuffling Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler back and forth on an offense that ranked 19th in the league in scoring.
This year’s Vikings are in the middle of the pack in points scored (16th), which isn’t what you normally see from a team with an MVP quarterback. The 2015 Panthers with Cam Newton were first. The 2014 Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers were first. The 2013 Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning set a league record for scoring. The last time a QB won MVP on a team that didn’t lead the league in scoring was the 2009 Indianapolis Colts with Manning, and they still finished seventh while Manning set a record with seven fourth-quarter comebacks.
To call Bradford the MVP is giving the highest compliment to the Minnesota defense. Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith, and the rest of them have played well enough that the expectations for the quarterback are so low that 18 points per game is enough.
But Bradford for MVP of this league? No way.
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