On Saturday night, the National Football League officially inducted its newest class to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, a group that included quarterbacks Brett Favre and Ken Stabler.

Favre, winner of three regular season MVP awards and holder of many career passing records, was an obvious choice, rightfully earning induction during his first year on the ballot. Stabler, on the ballot for many seasons, was somewhat of a surprise selection, as the former Oakland Raiders signal caller finished his career with 28 more interceptions than touchdowns. 

With Favre (very deserving) and Stabler (not so deserving) now in the Hall of Fame, there are now 32 quarterbacks in the National Football League. Seven of them played their entire career before 1950. That leaves 25 who are officially recognized as “modern-era” quarterbacks by the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s official website. 

Among current quarterbacks, it’s safe to say that four are absolute locks to one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Several others are in the maybe to probably yes category, including all three first-round quarterbacks taken in the 2004 draft class: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. 

For what it’s worth, I think Roethlisberger should and will get in the Hall. I think Rivers probably won’t get in, largely because of a relatively bland postseason resume and a lack of signature moments throughout his career. I think Eli Manning is the most fascinating name who will be appearing on the ballot, likely about a decade from now. 

As an Eagles fan, I’ve grown quite familiar with Eli Manning, as the Giants have played the Eagles 26 times, including twice in the postseason, since Manning’s rookie year of 2004. I’ve experienced his highs, his lows, and all of the in-betweens. And while the former number one overall draft pick likely has three to four more seasons in his career, my mind is just about made up regarding Manning and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. 

I don’t think he’s good enough. And I’m not sure it’s as close as everybody else seems to think. Below I’ll explain the pros for his Hall of Fame case, then the cons, and then my final verdict, which you already know will be a no. 

The Good:

Any argument for Eli Manning and the Hall of Fame begins with two simple words: multiple championships.

In January of 2008, Manning helped the underdog Giants topple the undefeated New England Patriots in what is widely regarded as the biggest upset in the history of the NFL. Manning earned MVP honors with a dramatic, last-minute drive. In fact, it’s the only game-winning drive in the final minutes of a championship game in which a touchdown was needed to guarantee victory. Manning’s desperation heave and 32-yard completion to David Tyree is the signature play of his career, perhaps in the history of the Super Bowl, while his fade touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress completed the finest hour in the history of the New York Giants. 

Four years later, history repeated itself as Manning again led a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive to beat another powerful Patriots squad. This time, his signature play wasn’t a thing of luck; it was a throw of beauty, a 38-yard perfectly-placed pass down the left sideline to Mario Manningham. Manning finished the game with 30 completions for 296 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers. But he was even better than his numbers, as the analytics site Pro Football Focus graded his Super Bowl as the best individual playoff game of any quarterback since 2007. 

In 11 postseason games, Manning has an 8-3 playoff record. He won both conference championship games on a game-winning drive in overtime and he won both Super Bowls with a last-minute touchdown. His career postseason passer rating, 89.3, is significantly better than his career regular season rating, as is his 17-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio when compared to his regular season mark. 

As far as the regular season goes, Manning has been selected to the Pro Bowl four times and currently ranks 8th in NFL history in touchdown passes (294) and 11th in passing yards (44191). He’s thrown for more than 4000 yards five times. He’s topped 20 touchdowns in 10 of 12 seasons, including 65 in the last two years. He holds single-season records for game-winning drives in the fourth quarter (8 in 2011). His most impressive stat, of course, is that he’s never missed a game in his career due to injury. His current streak of 183 consecutive games started, 194 if you include the playoffs, is the third-longest in history for a quarterback. 

If Manning plays three or four more seasons, he has a chance to finish as high as sixth all-time in both passing yards and touchdown passes. More importantly, he increases the chances that he could lead the Giants on yet another unlikely Super Bowl run. 

The Bad:

Ask a Giants fan why Eli Manning deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and they’ll proudly tell you about his two Super Bowl rings. Ask for more, and they’ll look at you confused. A minute or two later, you might hear about his all-time rank in passing yards, a stat where 4000 yards really doesn’t mean anything special anymore, or touchdown passes, where quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick are coming close to a rate of two per game. Or maybe you’ll hear about his 99-yard touchdown pass. Or the weak teams he usually played for. Or his higher career postseason passer rating than Tom Brady. And all of those are true. 

But is it enough? Do two months in January outweigh countless seasons of mediocrity? Notice that when his Super Bowl rings are mentioned, it’s entirely an individual accomplishment, despite the fact that Eli Manning led the Giants to a very unimpressive total of 17 and 19 offensive points in the two biggest games of his career. But talk about him missing the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons, and all of a sudden football is a team game and Eli can’t do it all. It doesn’t work both ways.

The truth is, of course, that it’s somewhere in between.

Manning has played tremendously in two different postseasons. He’s also had three one-and-dones, two in embarrassing fashion (a shutout to Carolina in 2005 and a double-digit loss as the number one seed to the sixth-seeded Eagles in 2008). And year after year, he leads a team that just isn’t good enough to reach the postseason, whether because of second-half collapses (2009, 2010, 2012 and 2015) or brutal first halves (2013, 2014). 

No one would deny that Manning is a great postseason quarterback – when he gets there. But an 8-3 playoff record will continue to remain unaffected when the team continues to go 6-10 or 7-9. 

As far as the regular season, Manning is very mediocre. Yup, you heard that right. He’s mediocre. He’s average. He’s nothing special. 

His career passer rating of 83.5 rates as below average for a quarterback since 2004, according to Pro-Football-Reference’s passer rating index. He’s finished in the top 10 in passer rating one time, and that was in 2011, when he finished ninth. He’s 20th among active quarterbacks in passer rating. You want to tell me passer rating doesn’t matter? I bet it does when his career postseason passer rating is higher than Tom Brady.

Eli Manning has finished in the top 10 in completion percentage once. He’s 15th among active quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt. He’s 24th in completion percentage. This is about as mediocre as it gets. He’s never led the league in a single passing statistic. Well, not any positive statistic. He’s led the NFL in interceptions three times, and finished in the top 10 on six other occasions. 

He’s among the all-time leaders in several passing categories and that’s largely because of two reasons: 1) He’s played for 12 seasons without missing a start, already with about as many games played as half of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks. 2) In the most pass-happy era in history, it’s not as impressive as it sounds to crack the all-time leaders in pass attempts, yards or touchdown passes. 

The Verdict:

Judging by the eye test, I’ve never looked at Eli Manning and said to myself that this is a Hall of Fame quarterback. Perhaps I’m biased because the Eagles seem to handle Manning pretty well, both in the regular season and the postseason. But I don’t think so. I’m scared when the Eagles face Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, or some of the newer generation passers like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. I don’t ever remember feeling that way with Eli Manning. 

Manning is a remarkably inconsistent quarterback on a game-by-game basis, but he’s actually pretty consistent when it comes to yearly totals. He’s a good quarterback. Some years he’s a very good quarterback. One season (2011), he was a great quarterback. But in a few other seasons, like 2007 (until the postseason) and 2013, he’s been a bad quarterback. 

I enjoy ranking quarterbacks. He’s currently 11th on my list of active quarterbacks. I could see an argument for him as high as seven or eight, and as low as 13 or 14. I’m not sure he’s ever been top 5. How is this a Hall of Famer? When did a certain number of passing yards and touchdown passes guarantee a player a spot in the Hall of Fame? When did two Super Bowl MVPs that are more of a fluke than a trend for a player’s career guarantee a spot in the Hall? 

Jim Plunkett, also a number one overall pick, has won two Super Bowls. Nobody is clamoring for him for the Hall of Fame. His head coach, Tom Flores, has multiple rings too, and nobody has ever heard of him. I think the main argument for Eli and his rings is that he knocked off a dynasty not once, but twice. It’s amazing how different the narrative would be if his defense had just allowed 20 and 23 points, still respectable numbers, in those two games. Manning would be 0-2 in Super Bowls and the entire Hall of Fame argument wouldn’t exist. 

I’m a big proponent for legacies, especially when it comes to quarterbacks. I think history should be able to take away one or two moments in a player’s career and if it completely changes the narrative of what he has accomplished, perhaps he isn’t as good as society says he is. Take away Peyton Manning’s comeback in the 2006 conference championship game. He’s still a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and it’s not even up for debate. Take away Drew Brees’ MVP performance in the Super Bowl. He’s still an all-time great, the modern version of Dan Marino. 

Take away Eli Manning’s two games – actually just take away one play at the end of each game – and the narrative is completely different. He’s Carson Palmer or Drew Bledsoe, a number one overall pick whose career is marked by just as much success as disappointment. 

My final point is that with just 25 quarterbacks in the last 65 years in the Hall of Fame, there just isn’t room to put in every very good quarterback. Four active quarterbacks are absolute locks. Roethlisberger will probably make it. Rivers and perhaps even Romo are a ring and a few more great seasons away from making it. Young players like Luck, Wilson and Newton are already building an impressive case. How many quarterbacks do you want from one era? Four or five is fine. Seven, eight or nine? That’s ridiculous. That’s 25 percent of the starting quarterbacks in the league. That’s just not practical. 

I haven’t slammed the door shut on Eli Manning one day making the Hall of Fame. He just turned 35. He can probably play three or four more seasons. Why not? He’s not slowing any signs of slowing down. He could theoretically reach 60000 passing yards and 400 touchdown passes. Maybe he’ll team with Odell Beckham to win his third Super Bowl. But right now, with his career winding down, he’s just the definition of the Hall of Very Good – not the Hall of Fame. 

Posted by Bryn Swartz

Eagles writer since 2008. Your source for any NFL top 10 list ever. Mostly retired Phillies blogger. 28 years on this planet. 2017 Super Bowl champions. Follow on Twitter for way too many tweets at @eaglescentral.