The New England Patriots are dominating the NFL, Drew Brees is on pace for another 5,000-yard season, and the Cleveland Browns can’t win a game. Just as we expected. Then again, Tony Romo may have lost his starting job forever, J.J. Watt is out for the season, and the Oakland Raiders are actually a terrific football team. So maybe you can’t predict football, and that’s what makes it fun. These awards below are based on what’s happened so far, not what I project for the second half of 2016.

 

Click here to read my preseason predictions.

 

A multitude of football experts think Tom Brady should be the NFL’s MVP if the season ended right now. While he’s played just four games, he’s playing at a greater rate right now than any quarterback in the history of the game. I just can’t bring myself to vote for a player who has missed half the season so far, especially when Matt Ryan has been no slouch himself.

 

Ryan is the first quarterback in league history to throw over 300 passes in the first nine games with a yards-per-attempt average over 9.5. He’s on pace to eclipse 5,000 passing yards, and he currently boasts pretty impressive numbers – 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions plus a 119.0 passer rating. Ryan has led the Atlanta Falcons to a 6-3 record, despite a defense that ranks bottom-seven in points and yards allowed. Take him away, and the Falcons are probably in last place in the NFC South.

 

One of the strangest awards in sports, the Offensive Player of the Year is typically reserved for the second-most valuable player. Since Matt Ryan is the MVP choice, we’ll call him ineligible for this award, which leaves the award open to a host of candidates: Drew Brees, David Johnson, and Derek Carr, to name a handful of players.

 

Brees flies under the radar year after year after year, but he’s quietly on pace for possibly his best numbers ever – at the age of 37. Brees is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, and he’s on pace for 5,376 yards, 42 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. His 1.4 interception rate is the lowest of his career. He’s taking sacks on just 3.3 percent of dropbacks, which is spectacular even for a sack-adverse quarterback like Brees. And he’s led the Saints to a 4-4 record despite a defense that ranks in the bottom three in the league in both points and yards allowed.

 

For just the second time in the last five seasons, J.J. Watt won’t win the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year honor, and it took a season-ending injury to open up this award to other players.

 

Aaron Donald isn’t a household name because he’s an interior defensive lineman on a below-average team, but he’s on pace to break the Pro Football Focus single-season record for an individual grade for a defensive player. Donald has racked up five sacks, one forced fumble, and he’s notched a ridiculous 49 quarterback pressures. PFF hasn’t charted Donald with a poor individual game performance since the 2014 season. He’s a one-man wrecking crew who requires constant double teams.

 

There’s no official Special Teams Player of the Year award, but there should be. Kickers, punters, returners, and gunners need more media attention, because they can play integral roles in the outcome of a game.

 

So how about what 44-year-old Adam Vinatieri, the league’s oldest player, is doing? In his 21st NFL season, Vinatieri is kicking better than he’s ever kicked before. He’s been flawless on his field goal attempts. He’s literally been perfect – 19 for 19, including a ridiculous 11 for 11 on field goals over 40 yards and 5 for 5 over 50 yards. He’s made all 24 extra-point attempts as well.

 

It’s perplexing how much better Vinatieri has gotten with age. From 1996 to 2010, he converted a grand total of 10 field goals over 50 yards. In the six years since, he’s made 22. Given his Super Bowl history with the New England Patriots, he’s going to one day wind up in the Hall of Fame.

 

It’s Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott. Pick your winner, and I’ll always go with the quarterback. Prescott is the fourth-round afterthought who was supposed to be a backup to Tony Romo; instead, he’s 7-1 as a starter and has played pretty much as flawless and efficient football as you can imagine. It’s so much easier when you have the game’s best offensive line and an elite running back, but that shouldn’t negate what Prescott is doing. He’s completing two-thirds of his passes. He’s at 12 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions (plus four more rushing scores), and he’s on pace to top 4,000 passing yards as a rookie. Prescott’s 8.15 adjusted net yards per attempt average is the third-best in the game, trailing just Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.

 

If Joey Bosa had played the full season, he would absolutely be the frontrunner. For now though, Jalen Ramsey has been the NFL’s best rookie defensive player. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected him in the hopes that he would be a hybrid cornerback/safety player in the mold of Tyrann Mathieu. So far, the Jaguars haven’t been winning football games, but Ramsey is becoming a star.

 

Don’t look at the stat sheet. He doesn’t yet have an interception, forced fumble, fumble recovery, or sack. What he is doing is shadowing the opposition’s number one receiver, and he’s doing it effectively. Ramsey faced Amari Cooper earlier this season, and held Cooper to just one catch for four total yards. Ramsey has outplayed highly-paid free-agent acquisition Davon House, and in fact, teams are choosing to throw more at Prince Amukamara’s side than Ramsey’s.

 

People take Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots for granted. This is a team that has won 12+ regular-season games every year since 2009 and four Super Bowl championships over the last 15 seasons. But it doesn’t come easy for Belichick. He dealt with a four-game suspension to his starting quarterback this year and then an injury to his backup QB that pushed third-string rookie Jacoby Brissett into starting action. Belichick was without All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski for two games. Starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is on IR and last year’s breakout player, Dion Lewis, hasn’t played yet. And despite that, the Patriots are not just in the playoff mix; they’re the best team in football and it’s really not that close. At this point, it’s looking like an upset if Belichick & Brady don’t come home with their fifth title.

 

There are a plethora of top candidates for Comeback Player of the Year award, but none deserve this more than San Diego Chargers’ running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon was a colossal bust as a first-round rookie, collecting over 200 touches without registering a single touchdown. That’s tough to do. In the offseason, Gordon had the dreaded microfracture knee surgery, which can be a career-ender. And yet, Gordon has rebounded in 2016 to not just be a productive starter, but actually a star. Gordon leads the NFL in carries (193) and rushing touchdowns (9), and he’s on pace for over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns. He’s running hard and he’s been a bright spot for a Chargers team that has been decimated with fourth-quarter collapses this season.

 

Realistically, there’s no reason to think any team but the New England Patriots will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It’s doubtful that the Oakland Raiders have a strong enough defense. The Denver Broncos made it work in 2015 with subpar quarterback play, but to do that two years in a row would be almost unprecedented. If everyone is healthy in Pittsburgh, that could be a sleeper, but I’ll go with the Patriots until proven wrong.

 

In the NFC, it’s a wide-open race. The Dallas Cowboys are the conference’s top team right now, but winning playoff games with a rookie quarterback may prove difficult. The Seattle Seahawks are battle-tested with significant postseason experience, and can never be counted out. Don’t rule out the Atlanta Falcons either.