What a typically wild NFL season this was. We may, or may not, have seen the end of Tom Brady in New England. We saw a historic quarterback season that nobody, and I mean nobody, saw coming. We had one of the greatest seasons ever by a running back and a historic season by a wide receiver. And now we’re down to the fun part of the season. 256 games have been played. Just 11 remain. The most important 11.
Below I will lay out my picks for the NFL postseason, complete with a brief analysis. I will also highlight my top candidates at each major award, as well as a few awards that don’t exist but really should.
NFL PLAYOFFS:
WILD CARD ROUND:
Buffalo 23, Houston 17
Give me the Bills in a slight upset here. It’s gone mostly unnoticed but Deshaun Watson hasn’t played good football for the second half of the season, and the NFL’s number-two scoring defense should be able to take advantage of a Houston offense that will be missing playmaking wide receiver Will Fuller. The return of JJ Watt is enormous for the Texans, but in the end, I think Josh Allen makes just enough plays to give Billa Mafia their first playoff victory since 1995.
New England 24, Tennessee 20
As a neutral football fan, this is the most intriguing game of the weekend. It’s almost inconceivable that New England is playing in the wild card round… against Ryan Tannehill… and nobody feels confident that they will take care of business. I think they do, probably with some late Tom Brady magic, but this game feels impossible to predict. Tennessee is simply playing better football right now. I’m going with two decades of playoff experience to give the Patriots the edge here.
New Orleans 38, Minnesota 20
New Orleans is simply not losing this game. In fact, I think there’s a better chance of New Orleans winning by more than 20 than Minnesota winning at all. Drew Brees has this offense clicking on all cylinders right now, and Kirk Cousins’ struggles in big games have been well-documented.
Seattle 24, Eagles 20
These are the two most banged-up teams of the weekend. Seattle is down its top three running backs, plus left tackle Duane Brown and they’ll have a hobbled Jadeveon Clowney. But the Eagles, as you might have heard, are injured at practically every position. The loss of Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks is massive, and this game could come down to whether Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson are able to play. In the end, I think Russell Wilson continues Seattle’s hot streak of winning close games with a last-second touchdown drive.
DIVISIONAL ROUND
San Francisco 27, Seattle 20
The reemergence of the San Francisco-Seattle rivalry has new faces at head coach and quarterback for San Francisco. It’s been a grind of a season for the 49ers, whose final five games were all decided on the final play. But they’re as battle-tested as they come, and their point differential of +169, as well as home-field advantage for this game, will prove to be just too much of a Seattle team that squeezed out 11 games despite a point differential of just +7.
Baltimore 30, Buffalo 13
Nobody will give Buffalo a chance in this game and ultimately everybody will be right. There’s simply no chance that Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense can compete with MVP favorite Lamar Jackson in his own house. This one will be over by halftime.
Kansas City 28, New England 17
Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady for the second straight postseason. Andy Reid vs. Bill Belichick for the fourth time in the postseason. This time, it’s the Chiefs who come out on top, likely putting an end to the greatest dynasty in the history of professional sports, and setting up lots of questions about the future of Tom Brady in New England.
New Orleans 34, Green Bay 16
Green Bay is one of the most fraud 13-3 teams I can ever remember. Their point differential suggests they should have won 9.7 games in 2019, not 13, and the biggest reason for my lack of confidence in them is the play of Aaron Rodgers. It’s not whether he’s still elite. It’s whether he’s still good. He’s turned into a glorified Alex Smith. He’s not going to be able to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees. New Orleans wins this one in a rout.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP:
Kansas City 37, Baltimore 31, OT
The most exciting AFC championship game, on paper, that I can ever remember comes to an end the same way as the previous year’s AFC championship: a 37-31 overtime thriller. This time, it’s Kansas City winning and advancing to the franchise’s second Super Bowl. For Lamar Jackson, this game will mark the 20th consecutive season that the league’s MVP winner does not win the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 34, New Orleans 32
Here’s my pick for the most exciting game of the postseason. Reminiscent of the 2011 divisional round thriller between these two teams, this game should feature multiple lead changes and likely a go-ahead score in the final seconds. The main question surrounding the 49ers is whether Jimmy Garoppolo can compete with the elite quarterbacks in the postseason. This game will answer a lot of those questions. It’ll also hand Drew Brees and the Saints yet another absolutely crushing postseason loss. The question will then be how many more years, if any, does Drew Brees continue to play.
SUPER BOWL:
San Francisco 26, Kansas City 23, OT
A Super Bowl for the ages. This year’s version of Sean McVay, in Kyle Shanahan, against the best coach in NFL history without a Super Bowl title. I see a low score, something like 9-7, at halftime, before both offenses take over in the second half. A drive by Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth quarter, down 23-20, puts San Francisco on the precipice of defeat, but a goal-line stand results in a game-tying field goal by the Chiefs. In overtime, Jimmy Garoppolo calmly leads the 49ers down the field, highlighted by three George Kittle catches, for a go-ahead field goal, and after a turnover on downs by the Chiefs’ offense, it’s the 49ers who are Super Bowl champions for a record-tying sixth time.
REGULAR SEASON AWARDS:
Most Valuable Player: 1) Lamar Jackson, 2) Russell Wilson, 3) Christian McCaffrey, 4) Patrick Mahomes.
Count me among the many who doubted Lamar Jackson heading into the season. In fact, I ranked him 32nd among all starting quarterbacks in my August rankings. He’s proven me wrong. His 2019 season is the greatest dual threat season we’ve ever had, as he threw for 36 touchdowns against six interceptions and added 1206 rushing yards and seven more scores. Oh, and he only played in 88 percent of the snaps all season because of Baltimore’s frequent big leads in the fourth quarter.
Offensive Player: 1) Christian McCaffrey, 2) Lamar Jackson, 3) Michael Thomas, 4) George Kittle.
This award came down to Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson or Michael Thomas. In the end, I followed the trend of voters who like to give the award to the best non-quarterback. McCaffrey’s electric 2019 season resulted in just the third occurrence ever of a running back recording 1000 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards. His 2392 yards from scrimmage are the third-most ever in a single season and he also led the league with 19 touchdowns.
Defensive Player: 1) Stephon Gilmore, 2) Aaron Donald, 3) Chandler Jones, 4) TJ Watt.
I’m generally not a fan of this award going to the best player on the best defense, but in 2019, there’s no case for any player other than Stephon Gilmore. He led the NFL with six interceptions, returning two for scores, as well as 20 passes defensed. He allowed a passer rating of 47.4, almost incomprehensible for an era where the average passer rating was almost double that mark. Bill Belichick trusts him every week to handle the opposing team’s best wide receiver and he almost always delivered.
Offensive Rookie: 1) AJ Brown, 2) Josh Jacobs, 3) Miles Sanders, 4) Kyler Murray.
This was the toughest award to decide. Ultimately I settled on the biggest playmaking rookie wide receiver we’ve seen since Odell Beckham in 2014. Brown finished 2019 with 52 catches for 1051 yards and eight touchdowns. He ranked second in the NFL with 20.2 yards per catch. He ranked third among all receivers in yards per route run, as well as yards after the catch per reception, and he set a record with the fewest targets ever (84) for a 1000-yard receiver.
Defensive Rookie: 1) Nick Bosa, 2) Josh Allen, 3) Maxx Crosby, 4) Devin Bush.
Josh Allen and Maxx Crosby recorded more sacks than Nick Bosa, but it was the overall impact by the San Francisco 49ers rookie Nick Bosa that gave him the edge in this award. Drafted second overall, Bosa made an immediate impact on the NFL’s biggest surprise team of the year. Bosa finished 2019 with 47 tackles, nine sacks, 16 tackles for a loss, and an interception touchdown.
Comeback Player: 1) Travis Frederick, 2) Brandon Brooks, 3) Darren Waller, 4) Jimmy Garoppolo.
When I evaluate the nominees for Comeback Player of the Year, I try to look at who overcame the most adversity. With all due respect to Dalvin Cook and Jimmy Garoppolo, many players have overcome a torn ACL. I’m looking for bigger injuries, like Brandon Brooks’ torn Achilles in January where he recovered by week one, or literal life obstacles, like Darren Waller overcoming his multiple suspensions for substance abuse. But the most impressive recovery was Dallas center Travis Frederick, who missed all of 2018 with Guillain-Barre syndrome, returned in 2019 and played all 16 games at a Pro Bowl level.
Breakout Player: 1) DeVante Parker, 2) Ryan Tannehill, 3) Shaq Barrett, 4) DJ Chark.
DeVante Parker’s first four seasons in the NFL solidified the former first round pick as a bust. He failed to top 744 yards or four touchdowns in any season. That makes his 2019 season all the more shocking. Parker played in all 16 games for the first time in his career, finishing with 72 catches for 1202 yards and nine touchdowns. His most impressive performance was an eight-catch, 137-yard performance against Defensive Player of the Year favorite Stephon Gilmore in week 17.
Special Teams Player: 1) Justin Tucker, 2) Josh Lambo, 3) Cordarrelle Patterson.
We’ve reached the point where it will be a major surprise if Justin Tucker doesn’t reach the Hall of Fame one day. He’s already the greatest kicker ever after just eight seasons. 2019 was a good year, even for him. He converted 28 of 29 field goals and scored exactly 141 points for the fourth straight season.
Fantasy Stud: 1) Lamar Jackson, 2) Christian McCaffrey, 3) Austin Ekeler, 4) Raheem Mostert.
For this award, I tried to go with late-round selections, if possible, unless they were so good (see Christian McCaffrey) that they likely carried you to a playoff berth even though they were your first-round pick. But the player who stood out the most was Lamar Jackson, a quarterback likely drafted around round 10 in most standard fantasy leagues. By season’s end, Lamar Jackson was on 47 percent of all fantasy championship teams.
Fantasy Dud: 1) OJ Howard, 2) Antonio Brown, 3) Juju Smith-Schuster, 4) Baker Mayfield
Players like Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster and Baker Mayfield really hurt your fantasy team, but you also probably dropped them by the midseason point or just moved on. My award for the biggest disappointment is OJ Howard, a player many expected to become one of the elite tight ends in the NFL in 2019. Howard was so ineffective early in the season that you likely dropped him and then watched in disbelief as an opponent picked him up and played him, with success, in the fantasy football playoffs. That’s the ultimate fantasy dud.
Best Acquisition: 1) Shaq Barrett, 2) Mark Ingram, 3) John Brown, 4) Preston & Zardarius Smith
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed reserve defensive end Shaq Barrett to a one-year, $4 million deal back in March. Ten months later, Barrett is the NFL’s leader with 19.5 sacks, completing one of the most impressive, and least-talked about, seasons for a defensive player in recent memory.
Worst Acquisition: 1) Nick Foles, 2) Le’Veon Bell, 3) Mohamed Sanu, 4) Jadeveon Clowney.
I really thought about Le’Veon Bell, whose 2019 season best compares to 2016 Todd Gurley. But there’s really no player who hurt his team more than Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars and failed to even remotely upgrade their quarterback play. Foles broke his collarbone in the first quarter of Week 1, returned to the starting lineup in Week 11, and was benched by halftime of Week 13. Foles didn’t win a single game for the Jaguars in 2019.
Head Coach: 1) Kyle Shanahan, 2) Sean Payton, 3) Sean McDermott, 4) John Harbaugh.
This award generally goes to the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround from the previous season. I have no issue with always giving it to Bill Belichick, as long as he continues to put forth the best NFL team. But things were different in 2019, as Kyle Shanahan took the 49ers from a four-win squad in 2018 to a 13-win team in 2019. A healthy Jimmy Garoppolo for a full season really helped, but Shanahan also worked his magic with four different running backs and no legit number one wide receiver. The 49ers’ point differential improved from -93 to +169 in one year. That’s a +262 swing in just one season. That’s one of the best coaching turnarounds we’ve ever seen.
