It’s fun to take a prediction at which teams will win each of the eight divisions and which teams represent their respective conference in the Super Bowl. But it’s even more fun to try to make individual player projections, especially those that are relatively obscure.
This is my eighth year doing a bold predictions list, and I’ve had quite the array of horrendous misses. Remember Jake Locker? After his rookie season, I said he would be an MVP candidate in year two. He ended up missing five games due to a shoulder injury and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. He was out of the league by 2014.
Last year, I said Jay Cutler would throw for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in Miami, earning a two-year extension with the team and thus taking Ryan Tannehill’s job. That might be the worst prediction I’ve ever made. I had Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl (they finished 5-11). The year before, I had Arizona in the Super Bowl (they finished 7-8-1). And the year Chip Kelly got fired from Philadelphia, I said the Eagles would go to the NFC Championship Game and Sam Bradford would throw for 4,000 yards.
But there are some good predictions in there too. Last year, I said Tom Brady would win his third MVP award, and Aaron Donald would win Defensive Player of the Year and then sign the richest contract ever for a defensive player. I correctly predicted Drew Brees would set the single-season record for completion percentage (72.2 – it was actually 72.0). And remember in 2016 when Oakland broke their 14-year playoff drought? Called that.
This year, I think I’m going to go 50-for-50. Ok, not really, because I’ve already gotten two wrong, but left them on here for your viewing pleasure, and because I’ve been working on this list all summer.
To check out my predictions from previous years, click here:
Quarterbacks who pass for 4,000 yards in 2018:
Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff. Stafford leads the league with 4,876 yards.
Running backs who rush for 1,000 yards in 2018:
Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Lamar Miller, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette. Gurley leads the league with 1,430 yards.
Aaron Donald gets his money on August 28, signing a six-year, $130 million extension with a new defensive player record $77 million guaranteed.
Here’s the caveat to this: It already happened, or least pretty close to what I predicted, but as I said, since I’ve been predicting this all summer, I’m keeping it on my list.
Is over $20 million per year too much to pay the best defensive player in the game? Not really, when you look how big the league’s salary cap has become. You can’t let generational talent like Donald walk, especially after signing a slew of other big-name free agents in the offseason. Donald isn’t the type of player to see a drop in production after inking an extension. He’s still going to be good for 14.5 sacks and another 45-50 quarterback hurries.
Oakland trades Khalil Mack to Green Bay in late September.
Another caveat: If I’m going to put the Donald one in which I was pretty close, I need to put the Mack one that wasn’t that close.
For some inexplicable reason, Jon Gruden seems to have no interest in making Khalil Mack a part of the 2018 Oakland Raiders. Mack is a game-changing talent. Paying a defensive player $20 million per year is a risky move, but with the ever-increasing salary cap, there are ways to make it work.
Oakland will find a trade suitor for Mack in Green Bay. After a two-game holdout into the regular season, Mack gets shipped to Green Bay for a first-round pick in 2019 and a third-round pick in 2020, then he suits up by Week 4 and registers 12 sacks over the final 12 games. And you know the trade isn’t happening without Green Bay’s management knowing they can extend Mack to a near-record-setting deal; expect a contract on par with what Aaron Donald got. I’ll go with slightly less money, but still quite a haul at six years, $125 million with $73 million of that guaranteed.
Earl Thomas gets shipped to Dallas in October for a 2019 second-round pick and then signs a four-year extension a week later.
You don’t often see a player speak openly about wanting to play for another team while still playing for the team that drafted him and for which he won a Super Bowl, but that’s exactly the case of Earl Thomas.
It’s not particularly difficult to connect these dots. Dallas desperately needs safety help. Thomas is apparently unhappy in Seattle, and as the last remaining member of the Legion of Boom, the Seahawks would be wise to trade Thomas while his value is still high and recoup a draft pick for the future. Soon after signing with Dallas, Thomas will sign a four-year contract extension with over $45 million of it guaranteed.
The Jon Gruden show is an unmitigated disaster in his first year in Oakland.
The last time Jon Gruden coached an NFL game, Brett Favre was still in the league. There were fullbacks and traditional 4-3 defenses and no rookie wage scale, and no one had iPads on the sidelines. It’s a different game than it was a decade ago, and paying out $100 million to a guy who went 45-51 with no playoff wins over his final six seasons seems as bizarre to me as it does to you.
So far, Gruden has done nothing to make the coaching hire seem like the right move; in fact, it reeks of a franchise and ownership trying desperately to stay relevant with a move to Las Vegas on the horizon. Gruden has alienated the team’s best player, Khalil Mack (update: and eventually trading him to Chicago), while signing a pair of 30 somethings in Doug Martin and Jordy Nelson to play pivotal roles for the offense. In fact, he has the oldest roster in the league since Jimmy Kempski started keeping track in 2012. The team already went just 6-10 last year, so it’s clear they were overmatched for the majority of their games.
Improving a bottom-10 defense and bottom-10 scoring offense is going to take time. The results won’t be pretty in year one. Gruden is headed for a four-win season and a top-3 draft pick in 2019. After that, we’ll see if he can get the team back on track.
First-Time Second-Year Pro Bowlers: Myles Garrett, Leonard Fournette, Deshaun Watson, Adoree’ Jackson, T.J. Watt, Ryan Ramczyk, Marcus Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster
A breakdown of your first-time Pro Bowlers whose careers started in 2017:
Myles Garrett – an absolute superstar in the making who will push for 12+ sacks
Leonard Fournette – a future All-Pro workhorse running back with 1,600-yard potential
Deshaun Watson – the predicted 2018 Offensive Player of the Year
Adoree’ Jackson – a top-five cornerback by the end of this coming season
T.J. Watt – a perennial 10-sack player from the edge
Ryan Ramczyk – a legitimate 2017 Offensive ROY candidate as an offensive lineman
Marcus Williams – his playoffs blooper aside, he’s going to be a star
JuJu Smith-Schuster – will team with Antonio Brown to give Pittsburgh the best 1-2 WR tandem in the game
Richard Sherman plays inconsistent football in his debut in San Francisco, and misses the Pro Bowl.
For seven seasons so far in Seattle, Richard Sherman has been the rare NFL player who has talked the talk and walked the walk. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler, three-time First-Team AP All-Pro, and leader of the Legion of Boom who is trying to do the near impossible as a 30-year-old corner – come back from a devastating season-ending Achilles injury, and on a new roster nonetheless.
Sherman negotiated his own contract this offseason, inking a three-year, $27 million contract with San Francisco, just essentially a one-year deal in terms of the guaranteed money. It’s obviously a strong belief in his own physical gifts. I’ve long been a fan of Sherman’s and hope he returns to be the elite lockdown corner he’s been his whole career, but I think the injury and age will prove to be too much. I think we see an injury-plagued season from Sherman, who records just one interception in 13 games and ultimately misses the Pro Bowl.
Your Hard Knocks’ Cleveland Browns win five games in 2018.
I’ve found this year’s Hard Knocks to be as fascinating as any season I can remember. It’s a team fresh off 1-15 and 0-16 seasons with the same head coach and there seems to be a nationwide sense of optimism surrounding this squad. You can find some good players on the roster – Jarvis Landry, Joel Bitonio, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Gordon?, and Myles Garrett.
But they’re not ready to make any real noise. Based simply on my Hard Knocks viewing, it seems to be a dysfunctional coaching staff. They’re in a division with three other teams that could make the 2018 postseason, one of whom is arguably a Super Bowl favorite. We’ll probably see Taylor start the first several games, then give way to Baker Mayfield, a polarizing figure who might one day turn this team around. But this year is just way too soon for this club. They’re not ready yet.
Jimmy Garoppolo finally loses a game.
He’ll actually lose eight of them. But he’ll also win eight and make the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns with a roster that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. His $137 million deal he signed is essentially a two-year deal if you break down the financial figures, but Garoppolo isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll provide in 2018 that he wasn’t merely a seven-game wonder.
Larry Fitzgerald catches 101 passes and moves into second place on the all-time list for receptions and receiving yards.
Larry Fitzgerald may be entering his 15th NFL season, but he’s playing as well as ever. He’s fresh off three consecutive 100-catch years, and he’s going to put up his fourth despite playing with likely a combination of Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen. Fitzgerald needs 92 catches to pass Tony Gonzalez for second place on the all-time list, and he’ll reach that mark in the final game of the season. He needs just under 400 yards to pass Terrell Owens for second place on the career list for receiving yards.
Patrick Peterson makes it 8-for-8 and 128-for-128 to start his career.
To date, the only player ever to play all 128 games in his first eight seasons and make the Pro Bowl every year is Joe Thomas, a future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Patrick Peterson has been perfect through seven seasons and there’s no reason to think that should change. He’ll make it 8-for-8 in 2018, registering four interceptions and two defensive touchdowns, and maintaining his status as a top-3 defensive back in the league.
Patrick Mahomes throws for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, while also leading the league in interceptions.
Can you have a more drastic change than going from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes? Call Smith what you want – a game manager, checkdown artist, career overachiever – but the bottom line is that Kansas City shipped off a player that led them to the postseason in four of five seasons for a quarterback with one NFL start.
I’m a believer in Mahomes largely because I’m a believer in Andy Reid, a quarterback guru who has seemingly maximized the talent of every quarterback he’s ever worked with from Donovan McNabb to Michael Vick to Alex Smith. Mahomes isn’t afraid to take shots, and if you saw the 70-yard bomb he threw to Tyreek Hill in preseason, you know how lethal Mahomes can be with the ball in his hand. He’s going to produce lots of high-scoring outputs, and he’ll mix 4,518 yards and 30 touchdown passes with 20 interceptions, including four pick-sixes.
Stefon Diggs leads the league with 1,523 receiving yards.
Stefon Diggs parlayed an improbable game-winning touchdown pass in the NFC Divisional Playoffs into a five-year, $72 million contract in the offseason. Now he gets a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who is by far the best signal-caller Diggs will ever have played with.
Diggs has had trouble staying healthy during his three-year NFL career, missing multiple games each season, and he still hasn’t cracked the 1,000-yard barrier. He’s due to a breakout year though. Once he develops chemistry with Cousins, the two of them are going to become one of the league’s most potent QB-WR combos. Diggs will beat out Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, Jr. for an NFL-best 1,523 yards, doing so on 98 catches and with 11 touchdowns.
Andrew Luck struggles early on but regains his form by November.
Count me among those that never thought Andrew Luck would play again. His mysterious shoulder injury seemed to linger on and on, and he still hasn’t played in a regular-season contest since late 2016. An inadequate offensive line and poor running game didn’t help the first part of Luck’s career; now he will try to revive himself in year seven. It took Peyton Manning some time to come back in 2012 – remember his three-interception quarter against Atlanta? Luck didn’t suffer the same injury as Manning, but either way, when you miss a year of football, it’s not easy to just come back and be the same elite player you were before.
Six weeks into the season, we’re going to be alarmed by Luck. He’ll have more interceptions than touchdowns and his balls will be floating like they’re being thrown by Matt Barkley. But he’ll begin to go on a hot streak and he’ll lead the Indianapolis Colts to four wins in five games in December to end 8-8. Most importantly for Luck and Colts fans, he’ll start all 16 games for the first time since 2014.
Prediction: 365 completions, 60.7 comp %, 4,018 passing yards, 26 TD, 15 INT, 84.6 passer rating
Le’Veon Bell accumulates 2,019 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns in 15 games, then signs a five-year, $67 million contract ($48 million guaranteed) with Indianapolis via free agency.
Note: After publication, reports surfaced that Bell is not planning to play in Week 1 against Cleveland.
At this point, two things are pretty clear:
- Le’Veon Bell is an immensely talented running back.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are not going to pay him.
Bell is playing out his second consecutive season on the franchise tag, and after reportedly turning down a $70 million extension from the Steelers, it’s clear he wants groundbreaking money; perhaps the first nine-figure contract by a running back we’ve seen since Adrian Peterson, but with significantly more guaranteed money than the $36 million that AP inked.
The Colts are a good fit for Bell – they’re currently employing a backfield mix of Marlon Mack (2017 fourth-rounder), Jordan Wilkins (rookie fifth-rounder), and Nyheim Hines (rookie fourth-rounder). They just gave over 750 carries to 30-something Frank Gore the last three years. With Andrew Luck cleared from injury and expected to return, they could certainly use a player of Bell’s talent.
Jadeveon Clowney becomes the next defensive player to sign a $100 million extension.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Jadeveon Clowney is an immensely talented pass rusher who is in line to become the next defensive player to clear the $100 million barrier. He’s primed to get paid handsomely as he enters his free agent year, and after a 12-sack campaign, the Houston Texans will open up the checkbook and hand out a six-year, $111 million deal with $65 million guaranteed to Clowney.
That will make Houston the first team ever to sign multiple defensive players to $100 million contracts (J.J. Watt is the other), but when you have a quarterback on a rookie contract, you can afford to do such things.
Saquon Barkley’s rookie numbers: 3.9 yards per carry, 811 rushing yards, 80 receptions, 765 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns
If you’re a fantasy football owner of Saquon Barkley’s, you’d probably be disappointed with these numbers. But don’t forget his current situation – he’s on a team that just ranked 31st in scoring offense last year and then retained its below-average quarterback in Eli Manning. It’s perhaps unreasonable to simply expect Barkley to dominate from Week 1.
Barkley’s talent is undeniable, but it’s fair to expect him to struggle running between the tackles as a rookie, as did Reggie Bush and Christian McCaffrey, two players with similar profiles to Barkley. Barkley’s value will remain high due to his propensity for catching the ball out of the backfield, and he’ll likely put up at least 80 receptions and 300-350 touches. For what it’s worth, no rookie has ever accumulated at least 765 rushing and receiving yards in the same season.
Joe Flacco throws for a career-high 4,338 yards. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has a limited impact as a passer but a pivotal role as a rusher.
How do you get a quarterback who has underperformed for years to perform better? Well, drafting his potential replacement in the first round is certainly a way to light a fire under him. Remember the last time Joe Flacco faced such adversity? He was an impending free agent during the 2012 season and proceeded to put up a postseason for the ages, culminating in a Super Bowl berth and the game’s MVP trophy.
Baltimore won’t win the Super Bowl this year, but I think we are in for Flacco’s best year yet. He will start all 16 games, throw for 4,338 yards and 25 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, and finish in the top 15 in the league in passer rating.
As for Lamar Jackson, his preseason showed he’s clearly not ready to start games in this league, but he will still serve a role for the ’18 Ravens. You can’t teach 4.3 speed and Jackson has it. The Ravens will have to be creative in finding ways to utilize Jackson, but expect him to score at least three or four touchdowns as a runner.
Frank Gore plays all 16 games and rushes for 707 yards in Miami, retiring after the season fourth on the all-time rushing list.
Frank Gore is football’s version of Julio Franco or Jamie Moyer, an ageless wonder who defies Father Time. Gore hasn’t missed a game since 2010, and he just averaged 984 rushing yards in his three years in Indianapolis, doing so at age 32, 33, and 34. Running backs don’t usually keep getting teams at this age, but when they never get hurt, still catch passes, block well, and can still handle 20 carries a game, they’re going to keep getting offers to play. Gore will share carries with Kenyan Drake in Miami but he’ll still rush for 707 yards, moving past Curtis Martin on the all-time rushing list and finishing his illustrious career just short of the 15,000-yard mark.
Drew Brees breaks the career passing yardage record in Week 5 and finishes 2018 with 75,007 yards.
Drew Brees needs 1,496 passing yards to pass Peyton Manning and move into first place on the all-time passing list. That’s certainly attainable, especially with Brees having Pro Bowl receiver Michael Thomas and pass-catching back Alvin Kamara on his side of the ball. Brees will reach the record in a Week 5 win over the Washington Redskins on Sunday Night Football. For the year, Brees will put up his usual stellar passing campaign, finishing 2018 with his 13th consecutive season of at least 4,300 passing yards.
The Jacksonville Jaguars regress to eight wins and miss the playoffs.
It’s not easy to sustain a great defense from year to year when you don’t have a great quarterback. It’s even harder to do so when your quarterback is Blake Bortles. The Jacksonville Jaguars curiously retained Bortles this offseason, bringing in no real competition, despite the fact that Bortles has been a far below-league average quarterback through four seasons.
Bortles will also be without Allen Robinson (left for Chicago) and Marqise Lee (season-ending knee injury). Jacksonville’s defense is still talented enough that it should keep the team in the majority of games, but it’s not good enough to vault this team back to the postseason. Factor in that Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson are returning from injuries, and we may be looking at a last-place finish for the 2017 AFC South champions.
Tampa Bay lets Jameis Winston walk after the season.
No Tampa Bay quarterback has ever received a second contract with the team, and right when it looked like Jameis Winston was the franchise signal-caller this organization has so badly needed, off-the-field issues broke. Winston’s three-game suspension for allegedly groping an Uber driver in 2016 means Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center for those contests, and head coach Dirk Koetter has already said Winston is not guaranteed his starting job when he returns.
It would be a shock if Winston doesn’t start upon returning, but would you give Winston the going quarterback rate to stick around for the next four to five years? I don’t think the organization thinks it can trust Winston, and if that’s the case, they’re certainly not going to commit $60 million guaranteed to them. It probably doesn’t even make sense to franchise Winston, especially if the team stumbles to a 4-12 record and is looking at a top-3 draft pick in April 2019.
Offensive line issues derail the season in Dallas, but Dak Prescott still cashes in on a $125 million extension in the offseason.
It’s amazing that the offensive line now threatens to derail the entire season in Big D, but that’s exactly the case. Travis Frederick is dealing with an unfortunate autoimmune disease that puts his 2018 campaign in serious jeopardy. Tyron Smith has had ongoing back issues. La’el Collins hasn’t developed into the player the team thought he would be when they stole him as an undrafted free agent.
As a result, it’s going to put more pressure on Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, and Prescott certainly doesn’t have the receiving corps he’d like to have. Prescott regressed mightily last year after a dynamic rookie season, and he’s probably more in the mold of an Alex Smith quarterback than Carson Wentz – a solid passer and good runner who is best when he’s surrounded by a competent defense and a top-notch running game. Still, what is Dallas going to do with him, let him walk? The going rate for a quarterback these days is $25 million-plus per year, and that’s what Prescott will get from Dallas over the summer.
Like Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota also signs a nine-figure extension in the offseason.
Marcus Mariota followed two promising seasons with a severe drop-off in 2017, although Tennessee still made the postseason and Mariota even won a playoff game on the road. Since entering the league in ‘15, Mariota is 20-22 as a starter and he’s never started all 16 games in a season; among 32 qualifying quarterbacks with 750 pass attempts over the last three years, these are Mariota’s ranks in the following statistics: 13th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, and 23rd in completion percentage. Still, if Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill can get extensions, Mariota certainly will too, probably along the lines of five years, $135 million with $65 million guaranteed.
Nick Foles goes 2-1 as a starter in Carson Wentz’s absence.
Given the severity of the injury that Carson Wentz suffered last season, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Nick Foles is under center for Week 1. Replicating the performances he put up in the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl won’t be easy, and I don’t expect him to do that.
But Foles is a competent starter who has a firm grasp on this team’s offense. Even with Alshon Jeffery expected to miss the first few regular-season games, Foles will win two of three games as a starter before handing the reigns back over to Wentz. Foles’ numbers in Wentz’s absence will be solid if unspectacular: 684 passing yards, 6 TD, 3 INT, and a 90.7 passer rating.
Aaron Rodgers leads the league with 37 touchdown passes, doing so in just 13 games.
After signing a record-setting extension this offseason, Aaron Rodgers will remain a top-three quarterback in the game. He’s dealt with injuries as of late, and soft-tissue injuries will resurface in his age-35 season, causing him to miss three games. Still, he’s dynamic when he does play, and he’ll throw 37 touchdowns to just nine interceptions when he’s on the field. That will put him at a clean 350 touchdown passes for his career.
Tom Brady wins his fourth NFL MVP award.
Maybe it’s not a bold prediction to pick arguably the greatest player in this sport’s history to win MVP a year after he did just that. But Tom Brady doing it at 41 years old would be perhaps his finest accomplishment to date.
Brady is without last year’s leading outside receiver Brandin Cooks, slot receiver Danny Amendola, or pass-catching running back Dion Lewis. Julian Edelman is suspended for the first four games. Jordan Matthews and Malcolm Mitchell didn’t make the team, and Eric Decker retired. It’s asking a lot to expect former first-round washouts Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett to play pivotal roles. Fortunately, Rob Gronkowski is still there, and the backfield added first-rounder Sony Michel to a corps with Rex Burkhead and James White.
It’s going to be a challenge for Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels to find ways to scheme on offense with a limited group of players. Expect a sluggish start to the season, one that may even call into question whether Brady is ‘washed up.’ But after a 1-2 start, including a loss to former Belichick assistant Matt Patricia in Detroit, New England will roll off 11 wins in its next 13 games, finishing with its usual 12-win season and a first-round playoff bye.
As for Tom Terrific, he’ll add a First-Team AP All-Pro selection and MVP trophy to his collection.
Prediction: 432 completions, 4,654 passing yards, 36 TD, 6 INT, 102.7 passer rating
Deshaun Watson wins NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Deshaun Watson took the league by storm as a rookie, throwing for a ridiculous 19 touchdowns and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt in his six starts until he tore his ACL. Assuming he can return at full strength, which should be no problem considering ACL tears aren’t what they used to be, Watson is poised to pick up where he left off.
He won’t replicate an unsustainable 9.3 touchdown rate, but the chemistry he showed with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller was uncanny. Watson can pass and run, and he’s a dual threat quarterback whose presence means the Houston Texans are never out of a game. If Watson can stay healthy for all 16 games, he’s a threat to pass for 35 touchdowns and run for seven more.
Prediction: 386 completions, 4,418 passing yards, 35 TD, 11 INT; 449 rushing yards, 6 TD
Joey Bosa wins Defensive Player of the Year.
Your Defensive Player of the Year award typically goes to the player with the most sacks, and this year that will be Joey Bosa. Bosa is flanked by former first-rounder Melvin Ingram, and Bosa will record career highs in sacks (18.5) and forced fumbles (6).
The top 10 for Defensive Player of the Year voting:
- Joey Bosa
- Aaron Donald
- Jalen Ramsey
- Adoree’ Jackson
- Khalil Mack
- J.J. Watt
- T.J. Watt
- Calais Campbell
- Bobby Wagner
- Patrick Peterson
Prediction: 18.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery
Sam Darnold wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Preseason reports have raved about Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft, and he’s set to become the youngest quarterback to start a Week 1 game in the modern era. Darnold doesn’t have the most potent supporting cast but it’s reasonable to think he can throw for 3,500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns if he can stay healthy for all 16 games.
Prediction: 16 starts, 3,532 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT
Predictions for the other four first-round quarterbacks:
Baker Mayfield: 11 starts, 2,765 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT
Sam Darnold: 16 starts, 3,563 passing yards, 22 TD, 13 INT
Josh Allen: 10 starts, 1,786 passing yards, 9 TD, 10 INT
Josh Rosen: 11 starts, 2,435 passing yards, 16 TD, 10 INT
Lamar Jackson: 0 starts, 168 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 234 rushing yards, 3 TD
Bradley Chubb wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Denver Broncos flat out stole Bradley Chubb with the fifth overall pick in this past year’s draft, giving John Elway by far his best defensive prospect since Von Miller. Put the two of them together, and it’s going to be a tough task for offensive coordinators to scheme ways to rid themselves of that pass rush.
Chubb’s impact won’t necessarily be in his sack total as a rookie, but more in the way in which he occupies blockers and allows his teammates to make plays.
Prediction: 8.5 sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR
Your best offensive free agent acquisition: Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota
Is $84 million in guaranteed money a lot to pay a borderline top-10 quarterback? Absolutely. But what were Minnesota’s other options? They weren’t going to bring Sam Bradford back. Case Keenum provided a nice spark in 2017, but the organization knew he wasn’t the long-term future. And it’s unfair to blame Minnesota for not retaining Teddy Bridgewater; after all, the rest of the league wasn’t interested either until he lit up preseason this August.
With Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have possibly their best quarterback since Brett Favre, and their best multi-year quarterback since Daunte Culpepper. Cousins’ numbers in three years as a starter speak for themselves. He’s never missed a game. He’s one of just two quarterbacks to throw for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. And his 65.5 career completion percentage is third-best in league history.
He’s now flanked with a top-tier defense, plus two elite wide receivers, and a budding superstar at running back. The offensive line is in shambles, but there’s still enough talent on the team to think Cousins will excel in Minnesota.
Prediction: 403 completions, 67.2 comp %, 4,602 passing yards, 29 TD, 14 INT, 96.4 passer rating
Your best defensive free agent acquisition: Tyrann Mathieu, CB, Houston Texans
Just two seasons after signing him to a five-year, $62 million contract extension, the Arizona Cardinals released Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger inked a one-year, prove-it deal with Houston, and he’s going to far outplay that contract.
He’s a tremendously versatile player who can play corner or safety, and he stayed healthy for all 16 games in 2017 while recording two interceptions, a forced fumble, a sack, and 66 tackles. This year, he’s now paired with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on the defense, which should give him even more opportunities to make plays.
After a standout ’18 season that results in his second career Pro Bowl berth, Mathieu will ink a four-year, $46 million contract with Houston.
Prediction: 16 starts, 3 INT, 2.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 TD
Your worst offensive free agent acquisition: Sammy Watkins, Kansas City
After Buffalo traded two first-round picks to move up and draft Sammy Watkins fourth overall in the 2014 draft, it’s safe to assume they were hoping for more than no Pro Bowls and one 1,000-yard campaign in three years. Watkins never clicked with Jared Goff, putting up just 593 yards in Los Angeles last year, and so far, reports are that he’s struggled to get on the same page with Patrick Mahomes thus far in training camp; this, after signing a three-year, $48 million contract in free agency.
Watkins hasn’t played a full 16 games since his rookie campaign. He hasn’t topped 600 yards since his sophomore season. And he’s probably third in line for targets behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. He won’t justify a $16 million/year contract in Kansas City.
Prediction: 44 receptions, 511 receiving yards, 3 TD
Your worst defensive free agent acquisition: Kyle Fuller, Chicago
Even if it’s your own free agent, Kyle Fuller still gets classified as a free agent signing. He’s had a strange career; after the Chicago Bears initially declined his fifth-year option, he then played well enough in 2017 that they had no choice but to offer him a four-year, $56 million contract. The problem is that $14 million per year for a cornerback with no Pro Bowl selections is far too much money to pay. It’s the fifth-highest annual salary for a cornerback, higher than that of Desmond Trufant ($13.75 million), A.J. Bouye ($13.5 million), Stephon Gilmore ($13 million), and Malcolm Butler ($12.25 million), all of whom are far superior players than Fuller.
Prediction: 16 starts, 7 TD allowed, 2 INT, 116.2 passer rating allowed (per PFF)
Your first head coach fired: Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay
The writing went on the wall with Dirk Koetter when Jameis Winston was handed down a three-game suspension to start the 2018 season. To make matters worse for Koetter and Tampa Bay, their first three games are slated to be against New Orleans (away), Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. That’s a brutal start to the season, a likely 0-3 record, and Tampa Bay also plays in one of the toughest divisions in football. Koetter will be fired after a Week 9 loss to Carolina that drops the team to 1-7.
Your first starting quarterback benched: Nathan Peterman, Buffalo
A.J. McCarron was going to be the first quarterback benched, but Buffalo realized that when you can get a fifth-round pick for McCarron, you do it immediately. Instead, they’ll be handing the starting job to Peterman, who turned in the worst debut half of football in league history last year. He will predictably struggle early and give reigns to first-rounder Josh Allen by Week 3.
Your 2018 AP All-Pro selections:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Todd Gurley
WR: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins
TE: Travis Kelce
OT: Taylor Lewan, Lane Johnson
G: Zack Martin, Trai Turner
C: Alex Mack
FLEX: Odell Beckham, Jr.
DE: J.J. Watt, Joey Bosa
DT: Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins
OLB: Von Miller, Shaq Thompson
ILB: Bobby Wagner
CB: Jalen Ramsey, Adoree’ Jackson
S: Harrison Smith, Jamal Adams
FLEX: Khalil Mack
K: Justin Tucker
P: Johnny Hekker
KR: Jakeem Grant
PR: Tyreek Hill
No real surprises here. Taylor Lewan will take over as the game’s best offensive tackle. Alex Mack takes Travis Frederick’s usual spot at center. Antonio Brown earns his unprecedented fifth consecutive First-Team AP All-Pro selection. Aaron Donald makes it four selections in a five-year career. J.J. Watt returns to dominant form. Your breakout defensive players to earn such a nomination are Shaq Thompson, Adoree’ Jackson, and Jamal Adams.
Your 2018 AFC division champions: NE, PIT, HOU, LA
New England starts 1-2 but ends up with a typical 12-win season. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North fairly easily. Houston wins a tough AFC South behind the healthy returns of Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt. And the Los Angeles Chargers take the AFC West and even earn a first-round bye after winning 12 games.
Your 2018 AFC wild cards: KC, BAL
Andy Reid almost never misses the playoffs, and even after switching quarterbacks from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes and ridding himself of All-Pro corner Marcus Peters, there’s still enough firepower on Kansas City to secure nine wins and a wild-card berth. The Baltimore Ravens, who nearly made it a year ago before surrendering a late 4th-and-12 conversion to Cincinnati, nab the final spot.
Your 2018 NFC division champions: PHI, MIN, ATL, LA
The Philadelphia Eagles become the NFC East’s first repeat champion since the 2001-2004 Eagles, taking advantage of the healthy return of Carson Wentz (in late September), Jason Peters, and Jordan Hicks. Minnesota’s $84 million quarterback gamble pays off, as Kirk Cousins directs the team to 11 wins and an NFC North title. Atlanta wins a three-way NFC South battle behind strong seasons from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, plus an underrated defensive unit, and the Los Angeles Rams repeat as NFC West champs and earn a first-round bye.
Your 2018 NFC wild cards: GB, CAR
After locking up Aaron Rodgers to the richest contract in NFL history, the Green Bay Packers reap the awards as he puts up a typically fantastic season. It’s enough to give the Packers 10 wins and a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Cam Newton in Carolina holds off Drew Brees for the final playoff spot, actually sweeping New Orleans (they meet in two of the final three weeks).
The New Orleans Saints fail to duplicate their surprise 2017 defensive performance.
Many things went right for the New Orleans Saints last year. Behind a record-setting 72.0 completion percentage from Drew Brees, a breakout season from rookie running back Alvin Kamara, and arguably the best defense Brees has ever had, this team went 11-5 and came within a play from advancing to the NFC Championship Game.
Don’t expect the defense to sustain its performance though. Marshon Lattimore and Cameron Jordan are legitimate stars, and Marcus Williams will be a fine safety. But even last year, the defense still rated just 17th in yards allowed and cracked down the stretch, surrendering 31, 26, and 29 points in the final three games. Sean Payton has never shown an ability to consistently piece together a good defense, and the fact that the division includes Cam Newton and Matt Ryan won’t make it either on New Orleans. They’ll slip to a below-average defense and finish with a 9-7 record.
The Los Angeles Rams’ offseason spending spree results in a trip to the NFC Championship Game.
Can you ever remember a team signing as many big-name players in one offseason as the Los Angeles Rams have done so far in 2018? The 2011 ‘Dream Team’ Philadelphia Eagles and 2016 New York Giants come to mind, but the Rams by far take the cake. From Marcus Peters to Ndamukong Suh to Brandin Cooks to Aqib Talib plus mammoth extensions to homegrown players Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley, the Rams weren’t shy about paying for top talent this offseason.
It’s a bold move to think that so many personalities can co-exist in one locker room, but winning seems to cure all, and last year, rookie head coach Sean McVay had the secret formula. He saved Jared Goff’s career, revived Todd Gurley, and got top production out of the whole offense.
Your 2018 AFC Championship Game: New England over Los Angeles
The Pittsburgh Steelers should be in the AFC Championship Game every year given the offensive talent they’ve amassed, but for some reason, that never seems to be the case. It’s a boring and predictable choice to say Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will make it, but can you blame me for wanting to be right?
I debated between Houston and Los Angeles as the opponent, and finally settled on the Chargers because I believe this has a chance to be Philip Rivers’ year – or at least, close to it. In Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Casey Hayward, and rookie safety Derwin James, there are playmakers on defense.
It’s interesting that Brady and Rivers have actually met in the AFC Championship Game before – 11 years ago. That was the year the Patriots went 16-0, but don’t forget that they struggled in the 21-12 win over the Chargers. Brady actually threw three interceptions in that game, but with Rivers playing through a torn ACL, New England still prevailed.
Brady would be playing in his 13th AFC Championship Game (think about that for a moment) and his eighth in a row. Rivers would be making just his 10th career playoff start and first in five years. Allow me to tell you just how brutal Rivers’ playoff opponents have been in his career: He’s faced Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger in five of his nine career playoff starts to date. Another outing came against the New York Jets’ No. 1 ranked scoring and total defense.
Rivers will lose to Brady for the third time in his playoff career come this January. Given Rivers’ poor luck, he’ll probably deal with two missed field goals from his kicker, a muffed punt on special teams, and a dropped pick-six with the game on the line.
Prediction: New England 31, Los Angeles 28
Your 2018 NFC Championship Game: Philadelphia over Los Angeles
The last time these two teams played, it was one of the more memorable games you’ll find. Not only did the game have a huge impact on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but it was the contest in which Carson Wentz tore his ACL. The Eagles still won that game, 43-35, thanks to a defensive touchdown by Brandon Graham on the final play that made a two-point contest look like an easier win.
Wentz will start and finish this game, throwing three touchdowns and rushing for one more. Goff is no slouch himself, and he’ll throw two touchdowns with Todd Gurley rushing for one himself. The Eagles win a shootout and become the first NFC team to advance to consecutive Super Bowls since the 2013-2014 Seattle Seahawks and the first team to advance to consecutive Super Bowls with different quarterbacks since the 1970-1971 Dallas Cowboys (Craig Morton/Roger Staubach).
Prediction: Philadelphia 31, Los Angeles 27
The Philadelphia Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions.
For the second straight year, the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots will meet in the Super Bowl, only this time with Carson Wentz going head-to-head with Tom Brady. We haven’t seen the same two teams meet in the Super Bowl in two straight years since the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills did it from 1992-1993.
For 41-year-old quarterback Tom Brady, it would be his ninth Super Bowl appearance. For Carson Wentz, it would be just his third playoff start, but by winning this, he’ll have started his postseason career with a 3-0 record.
Wentz won’t catch a touchdown in this Super Bowl but he will come out blazing, throwing for 400 yards and four touchdowns against a Patriots defense that will struggle all year after letting Malcolm Butler walk in free agency. Brady won’t reproduce the 505 yards he had in last year’s Super Bowl, but he’ll still put up 375 and three scores of his own – and he won’t drop any passes.
You know the game is coming down to the fourth quarter, probably the final two minutes, because all eight Patriots Super Bowls under Brady and Bill Belichick have. This time, Brandon Graham won’t sack Brady to win the game because the Patriots won’t have the ball. With New England up 31-30 and two minutes to play, Wentz leads the Eagles 65 yards to set up Jake Elliott’s game-winning 35-yard field goal as time expires.
Prediction: Philadelphia 33, New England 31
Tom Brady retires after the 2018 season.
All good things come to an end, and Tom Brady’s magical 19-year Hall of Fame career will do just that. The man who has become the face of the most popular game in America will hang up his cleats after his age-41 season and his fourth league MVP award, having made a record-tying 14 Pro Bowls, thrown for over 70,000 yards and 525 touchdowns, and earned over $200 million.
He’s previously said he wanted to play until he was 45 years old, but then sounded more interested this offseason in retirement than ever before. Brady’s retirement will leave the New England Patriots with no real long-term solution at the quarterback position, which means Bill Belichick will have to find a way to move into the top 10 in the 2019 NFL draft to pick Brady’s successor. It’s not an ideal situation for Patriots fans, but when you win five Super Bowls and make nine in a two-decade span, you’ve had it pretty well.
So does Nick Foles.
You know who else will retire after 2018? Nick Foles. His contract with the Philadelphia Eagles is set to expire and I don’t think he wants to go to Miami or Buffalo to be a bridge quarterback for a year or two. He’s made a Pro Bowl, won a Super Bowl MVP, written an autobiography (a really good one!), and he has more important things to do. He’ll be a motivational speaker or a pastor or both, and he’ll be terrific at that.
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