You can’t get every prediction right. Last year, I predicted that Joe Burrow was on the David Carr track. While Burrow did absorb a shocking amount of sacks in 2021, he also took the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl. Carr never did that.
I had Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence finishing 1-2 in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. I also said Derek Carr would be benched (for Marcus Mariota) and Ryan Fitzpatrick would reach the postseason. Not my best predictions.
But I also said Kansas City’s offensive line would be totally fixed. A 44-year-old Tom Brady would finish with 5,302 yards and 45 touchdowns (he ended at 5,316 and 43). And Carson Wentz doesn’t work out in Indianapolis.
If you want to take a look at last year’s predictions (or any of the last 11 years), click these links to see: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011.
Houston fires Lovie Smith after the year, its second consecutive one-and-done.
It’s no secret that Houston wanted to hire Josh McCown to be its head coach before 2021 (when they hired one-and-done David Culley) and again in 2022 when they promoted defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith. It certainly seemed like the Texans were one step away from hiring the underqualified McCown to be its head coach, but the Brian Flores lawsuit likely led the organization to go with a minority hire in Smith.
Will firing Smith make any sense? No. Is McCown ready to be a head coach? Probably not. But all the signs are there.
The Deshaun Watson saga is a disaster in every aspect in 2022.
The Deshaun Watson situation is a black eye for the NFL in a way the league hasn’t seen since the viral Ray Rice video. Not only was Watson rewarded for his sexual predator behavior with a fully guaranteed $230M contract, but the NFL conveniently arranged for an 11-game suspension (?) so that his activation just randomly coincides with a game against his former team.
Strictly from a football standpoint, I don’t expect Watson to be the same quarterback when he returns. Don’t forget he’ll have missed nearly two full years of his prime. Outside of Amari Cooper, the receiving corps will be relying on unproven players or rookies in Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, and David Bell. It’s going to be a tough year for Watson – on and off the field.
Derek Carr sets a new single-season record for passing yards (5,512)
New Raiders’ coach Josh McDaniels’ resume as Tom Brady’s offensive coordinator is certainly impressive. He was the OC for all three of Brady’s MVP campaigns and three different Super Bowl titles (plus QB coach for another championship). In each of the last seven seasons in which McDaniels had Brady (excluding 2016 when Brady was suspended for four games for Deflategate), the offense ranked in the top seven in pass attempts. Most offenses with Brady would probably rank near the top in passing attempts, but still, McDaniels’ commitment to passing the ball bodes well for Derek Carr.
Carr is durable, having started all 65 games over the last four years. He’s fresh off a season in which he threw for 4,804 yards, fifth-most in the league. And the offense added all-world talent Davante Adams. It’s a ridiculously talented group of pass catchers. With that extra game on the schedule, Carr cruises to the first 5,500-yard passing season in NFL history.
Three Raiders players finish with 1,200+ receiving yards
Davante Adams is as good as any wide receiver in the NFL, which is why the Las Vegas Raiders paid a king’s ransom to acquire his services via trade. If you haven’t heard already, Adams will be reunited with his former college quarterback in Derek Carr, and he joins a Raiders team that now features a top-tier trio of pass-catching talent in Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow.
Prediction: Davante Adams: 82/1,344/15, Hunter Renfrow: 122/1,249/6, Darren Waller: 101/1,203/7
Tua Tagovailoa sets the single-season record with a 75.0 completion percentage
If Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill aren’t the fastest duo of wide receivers in league history, they’re certainly in the conversation. Waddle was a rookie sensation, catching over 100 passes in Brian Flores’ offense that emphasized quick strike passing. Tyreek Hill might be the player who keeps offensive coordinators up the most at night. He’s almost uncoverable in one-on-one situations.
New Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was a master at scheming ways for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to flourish with YAC opportunities in San Francisco. Per PFF, Samuel’s average of 10.2 yards after the catch per reception in 2021 was first. Aiyuk was ninth at 6.2. Waddle and Hill are even more talented than Samuel and Aiyuk.
Tua Tagovailoa can’t throw the 70-yard bombs Patrick Mahomes can throw, but he’s extremely accurate. Just ask Tyreek Hill, who spent all offseason trying to convince everyone he went to Miami for Tua and not for the $120M. Drew Brees has the top three single-season completion percentages of all-time, topping out at 74.4% in 2018. Tua will finish the year at 75.0%, the first quarterback to complete three-quarters of his passes.
Green Bay becomes a ball control team and leads the NFL in rushing
2022 will be Matt LaFleur’s toughest test as a head coach. Davante Adams is in Las Vegas and the receiving cupboard is relying heavily on veterans like Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins or rookies like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. LaFleur’s best bet is to take full advantage of the best two-headed backfield in the NFL and become a full-fledged rushing attack.
A.J. Dillon is the between-the-tackles runner while Aaron Jones adds the pass-catching prowess. Aaron Rodgers is still there and coming off consecutive MVP campaigns, but his best bet for this year may be to simply manage the offense. And when it’s wintertime in cold Lambeau, the ground-and-pound offense will be a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Antonio Brown and Adrian Peterson don’t play in 2022 but Rob Gronkowski and Richard Sherman do
Antonio Brown’s career ended when he took his uniform off and ran across the field. Regardless of how much he spends his days tweeting about his own greatness, throwing Tom Brady under the bus will probably make any GM think twice before signing him.
Adrian Peterson’s career just keeps going and going, with him having made stops in six different cities since leaving Minnesota. He’s just 82 yards from reaching 15,000 rushing yards and 352 from passing Barry Sanders, but there isn’t going to be a market for a 37-year-old running back coming off a year in which he averaged 2.6 yards per carry.
Rob Gronkowski said he won’t come back even if Tom Brady calls him, but there will come a point when Brady calls him and Gronk will come back. It’s inevitable.
Richard Sherman will be a dynamo analyst on NFL Network soon enough, but he still has more football in him. Last year was a lost year in Tampa Bay, but New England’s weak cornerback situation will cause Bill Belichick to give Sherman a call in November and utilize his services for the remainder of 2022.
The Sean Payton-to-Dallas rumor becomes the worst-kept secret in the NFL
Dallas blew it with the Mike McCarthy hire. Jerry Jones knows it. You know it. I know it. There’s a future Hall of Fame coach out there. By mid-October, Sean Payton will all but have moved his office into Dallas. Once the Cowboys miss the playoffs, McCarthy is out and Payton is in.
2020 first round draft picks who will receive contract extensions after the year:
QB Joe Burrow: 6 years, $295M, $215M guaranteed
EDGE Chase Young: 4 years, $79M, $40M guaranteed
OT Andrew Thomas: 4 years, $64M, $38M guaranteed
QB Herbert: 6 years, $300M, $235M guaranteed
OT Jedrick Wills: 4 years, $66M, $37M guaranteed
OT Tristan Wirfs: 5 years, $105M, $65M guaranteed
CB A.J. Terrell: 5 years, $101M, $64M guaranteed
WR CeeDee Lamb: 3 years, $85M, $64M guaranteed
WR Justin Jefferson: 6 years, $182M, $110M guaranteed
C Cesar Ruiz: 4 years, $70M, $40M guaranteed
WR Brandon Aiyuk: 4 years, $82M, $45M guaranteed
LB Jordyn Brooks: 3 years, $46M, $29M guaranteed
2020 first round draft picks who will have their fifth-year options declined:
CB Jeff Okudah: Last year’s injury plus a new coaching staff doesn’t bode well for Okudah.
DT Derrick Brown: Brown will get another starting job, but he hasn’t justified a top-10 draft selection.
CB C.J. Henderson: Already traded to Carolina, C.J. Henderson hasn’t flashed elite skills.
OT Mekhi Becton: Out for the year plus weight issues. Not good.
OT Austin Jackson: One of three 2020 Miami first rounders who will have his fifth-year options declined.
EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson: A rotational player at best.
WR Jalen Reagor: Trying to stay in the NFL after a trade to Minnesota.
ILB Kenneth Murray: Negatively contributed to the worst run defense in the league.
QB Jordan Love: If Love could play, Green Bay would have traded Rodgers.
ILB Patrick Queen: It’s rare that a Ravens linebacker doesn’t hit.
CB Noah Igbinoghene: A bench player at best.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: A luxury pick that didn’t work out in KC.
Coaches to be fired during or after 2022:
Matt Rhule: The easiest first coach to be fired bet.
Lovie Smith: Houston never really wanted him.
Ron Rivera: Not a bad guy, but just a mediocre coach.
Mike McCarthy: Keeping the office chair warm until Sean Payton is ready.
Robert Saleh: Zach Wilson’s poor QB play costs his coach his job.
Coordinators to become head coaches in 2023:
LAR DC Raheem Morris: A retread coach who made a name for himself as the Rams’ DC.
BUF OC Ken Dorsey: An up-and-coming bright offensive mind capitalizes on Josh Allen’s MVP.
SF DC DeMeco Ryans: A fast-rising defensive coordinator who commands the respect of his players.
TB OC Byron Leftwich: Once Brady leaves after 2022, Leftwich gets his chance to lead his own team.
BAL DC Mike Macdonald: He’s in a great position with all the defensive backs returning.
Doug Pederson saves Trevor Lawrence’s career
Everything that could go wrong for last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars did, and that included Urban Meyer stunting the development of once-in-a-decade quarterback prospect, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence was 29th among 31 qualifiers in passer rating, 32nd among 39 in PFF grade, and 29th among 34 in Football Outsiders’ passing DVOA statistic.
What he needs is Doug Pederson. Pederson took Carson Wentz from a solid rookie to an MVP candidate by year two. He can do the same with Lawrence, who is actually more physically gifted than Wentz.
Prediction in 2022: 4,039 passing yards, 27 TD, 15 INT
The Giants go 2-15 – and have a promising future
Rebuilding the disastrous roster Dave Gettleman left the organization will be a multi-year process. Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay won’t likely be on the 2023 roster, and it’s reasonable to envision Kadarius Toney being tangled in trade talks. Wins won’t come easy this year, but the core of the team will become evident: offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal, edge rushers Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari, safety Xavier McKinney, and possibly receiver Wan’Dale Robinson.
Much like last year’s Detroit Lions, new GM Joe Schoen will be building from the inside out, formulating a group capable of winning games in the trenches. The comparisons to what the Buffalo Bills did are everywhere; Schoen and new coach Brian Daboll came from Buffalo where they watched Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott tear down an aging underproductive roster and turn it into Super Bowl contenders. And if the Giants do go 2-15 this year, they’re in prime position to add the top quarterback in next year’s draft.
Denver leads the NFL in rushing yards in 2022
Melvin Gordon may be a stumbling block to Javonte Williams fantasy owners, but he’s still a top-15 running back. Gordon has six consecutive seasons with eight or more rushing touchdowns, and he’s averaged 40 receptions out of the backfield since being drafted in 2015.
Russell Wilson may want to cook, but a quarterback’s best friend is a dominant offensive line or a top-notch running game. In Denver, Wilson gets two running backs who will each run the ball 200+ times in 2022. Wilson may not love that, but Denver will lead the NFL in rushing yards.
New England misses the playoffs
Bill Belichick deserves the benefit of the doubt given the last two decades in which he’s won six Super Bowls and been the greatest coach of all-time. But the 2022 team… it’s an odd situation.
Either Matt Patricia or Joe Judge is calling plays, although Belichick won’t name an official OC possibly so Patricia and Judge can continue getting paid by their former teams.
The Patriots are third in wide receiver spending, despite having a handful of players best suited as No. 2 or No. 3 options. Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry underwhelmed as the explosive tight end duo Belichick envisioned when he paid them handsomely in free agency last offseason. Mac Jones had a solid rookie campaign, but his physical upside is a far cry from top-tier quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.
It’s Buffalo’s division, and there aren’t many reasons to think that will change anytime soon.
Kyle Pitts breaks Mark Andrews’ single-season tight end record with 1,436 receiving yards
Kyle Pitts is a tight end in name only. As a rookie in 2021, he posted a 68/1,026/1 receiving line, averaging a robust 15.1 yards per reception while lining up in the slot or out wide on 68% of his snaps. Pitts will be the unquestioned No. 1 receiving option on an Atlanta team that no longer has Julio Jones and won’t be able to play Calvin Ridley all year due to a gambling suspension.
Pitts will prove he’s quarterback-proof. Despite the downgrade from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota, Pitts will seize the opportunity as his team’s top option. He’s a 6’6”, 240-pound beast who runs a 4.44 40. Last year, Mark Andrews set the position record with 1,361 receiving yards. Pitts is primed for the first 1,400-yard season ever.
Prediction in 2022: 87/1,436/9
The tight end market booms like the wide receiver market
This past offseason, the wide receiver market exploded like no position ever has in the history of the league. Miami and Las Vegas paid a king’s ransom for Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. The Eagles traded a first for A.J. Brown. Each of those three players received a contract worth $25M+ annually. Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf came in just a touch under, and even Christian Kirk got paid.
This coming offseason, it’s going to be the tight ends. George Kittle holds the positional record at $75M with an AAV (average annual value) of $15M. Darren Waller should top that. Mike Gesicki will come close, even though his style of play is more reflective of that of a wide receiver. Dalton Schultz will get a nice payday. So will Dawson Knox.
Darren Waller projection: 4 years, $66M ($16.5M AAV), $38M guaranteed
T.J. Hockenson projection: 4 years, $59M ($14.8M AAV), $33M guaranteed
Mike Gesicki projection: 4 years, $58M ($14.5M AAV), $31M guaranteed
Dalton Schultz projection: 3 years, $40M ($13.3M AAV), $27M guaranteed
Dawson Knox projection: 4 years, $51M ($12.8M AAV), $26M guaranteed (signed a 4-53-31 contract right after publication)
Tom Brady becomes the first QB to complete 500 passes in a season
What in the world happened to Tom Brady this offseason? He retired. He unretired. He apparently wanted to play for Miami. Miami got in trouble with tampering with Tom Brady but no suspension for Brady. Brady took 11 days off from training camp for a mysterious reason. He signed a $375M deal with FOX Sports, but he’s also still playing football.
All that means is Brady is back with Tampa Bay – healthy and probably pissed off. Would you want to be an opponent of his? Last year, Brady threw for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns, while also quietly setting the single-season record with 485 completions. This year? Tampa Bay will throw even more, and another banner season is in the works for Brady.
Prediction in 2022: 509 completions, 5,423 passing yards, 42 TD, 11 INT
Three-safety sets on defense become the new norm
Gone are the days of fullbacks and base defenses; now the typical offense runs more 11 personnel (three wide receivers) than anything else, and defenses are forced to reciprocate with nickel or dime defenses.
In 2020, there were 4,876 plays of dime defense across the NFL; last year, that number went up to 4,988. Miami regularly utilized three safeties (Jevon Holland, Eric Rowe, and Brandon Jones). New England did the same with Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, and Kyle Dugger.
Defensive coordinators value the safety that can cover man-to-man if necessary but also stop the run or even blitz off the edge. Expect the trend to continue in 2022 as a valuable cornerback becomes harder to find, but a versatile safety allows the defense flexibility. Look for the following teams to also rank near the top of three-safety sets: Baltimore (Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, and Chuck Clark), Cincinnati (Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell, and Daxton Hill), and Minnesota (Harrison Smith, Lewis Cine, and Cameron Bynum).
Best offensive free agent acquisition: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram never materialized into the standout player the New York Giants envisioned he would be, even though he made a Pro Bowl and flashes at times. The good news for Engram is that new Jaguars coach Doug Pederson likes to utilize tight ends in the passing game.
Engram’s physical tools are enthralling; he ran a 4.42 40 at the Scouting Combine in 2017 and wowed scouts with a 35.5 inch vertical leap. He only lined up as a traditional in-line tight end on 37.6% of his snaps last year with well over half coming in the slot. That’s similar to the way the Eagles used Ertz during the Pederson era. Despite the Christian Kirk contract (see below), the Jaguars don’t have a clear No. 1 passing option in the receiving game. The opportunity is there for Engram to excel.
Prediction in 2022: 71/835/6
Worst offensive free agent acquisition: Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars had money to burn, and burn it they did. By far the most egregious was the four-year, $72 million contract handed out to Christian Kirk, a deal that includes $37 million in guaranteed cash. Kirk was a productive player for Arizona in 2021, playing all 17 games and finishing with a 77/982/5 statline, but he’s not worth close to his contract figures.
Kirk operated primarily out of the slot, doing so on 78.6% of his snaps in 2021. He does bring a vertical element to his game, as he had 12 deep receptions (20+ air yard passes), a number topped by only three receivers a year ago. With a bonafide No. 1 option to the passing game, Kirk is a fine No. 2. But as a No. 2 masquerading as a No. 1 – while on an expensive contract – Kirk isn’t worth the cap hit.
Prediction in 2022: 69/846/5
Best defensive free agent acquisition: Marcus Williams, S, Baltimore Ravens
If there’s a Most Underrated Player in Football award, Marcus Williams has to be in the running. The New Orleans’ safety most infamously known for the missed tackle on the Stefon Diggs’ playoff touchdown has turned into a remarkably effective cover safety.
Williams started 76 of 81 games for the Saints, recording 15 interceptions and 38 passes defensed. Coverage stats for safeties can be dicey, but per PFF, Williams allowed just eight receptions in 672 coverage snaps in 2021. That rate of one reception per 78.6 coverage snaps was the second-best at his position in the entire league.
Baltimore’s defense, notably its secondary, was decimated with injuries last year. The organization now gets Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey back to go with nickel back Kyle Fuller and two new safeties in Williams and first-round rookie, Kyle Hamilton. Williams was primarily the Cover-1 free safety for the Saints last year, which would give the Ravens the opportunity to utilize Hamilton (and even Chuck Clark) in other roles on the defense.
Worst defensive free agent acquisition: Foyesade Oluokun, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The NFL is trending away from off-ball linebackers, which is what makes Foyesade Oluokun’s three-year, $45 million extension even more outlandish. Oluokun was certainly productive in Atlanta, leading the NFL with 192 tackles in 2021, while contributing with three interceptions, a forced fumble, and two sacks in addition.
Atlanta typically played nickel defense in ’21, with Oluokun staying on the field as one of two linebackers. He pairs with first-round pick Devin Lloyd, which gives the Jaguars a good duo of off-ball linebackers. The problem is Oluokun’s salary; he’s really only locked in for two years, but a $19.2 million cap hit will be tough to justify unless Oluokun becomes Luke Kuechly.
Prediction in 2022: 123 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 FF
In a contract year, Lamar Jackson shows up in a big way
Quarterbacks of Lamar Jackson’s caliber don’t hit the open market very often, but it appears as if the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson are prepared to play out 2022 without a deal in place. It worked pretty well when the Ravens tried that with Joe Flacco a decade ago. It’s also working for Aaron Judge this year if you switch sports.
Jackson has an MVP on his resume. He’s the most electrifying running quarterback… ever? J.K. Dobbins is back, Gus Edwards will return in Week 5, and Mike Davis/Kenyan Drake improve a backfield that was decimated with injuries last year. Jackson’s passing numbers dipped last year, but it was a difficult situation. Money can be the best motivator, and Jackson will get paid after 2022.
Lamar Jackson prediction in 2022: 3,568 passing yards, 25 TD, 9 INT; 897 rushing yards, 12 TD
Lamar Jackson contract prediction: 5 years, $252M ($50.4M AAV), $167M guaranteed
Carson Wentz will retire after an up-and-down injury-plagued 2022 campaign
There aren’t many reasons to believe in Carson Wentz right now. The Eagles dumped him after a porous 2020 season. The Colts moved on after he failed miserably down the stretch in 2021. The fact that Washington was willing to give him a shot in 2022 is relatively surprising.
Wentz has a cannon of an arm and electric playmaking ability, but the big plays aren’t there as much as they used to be and the viral bad plays seem to reoccur every other week. Wentz is benched for Sam Howell in Week 9 and retires after the year, citing health concerns.
Jordan Mailata rates as PFF’s top offensive lineman in 2022 and the Eagles’ offensive line is far and above the best in the NFL
There’s quite literally never been a football player like Jordan Mailata before, and there may never been one again. Longtime Eagles offensive tackle Jason Peters was well-known for having been a college tight end. How about Mailata never having played football before the Eagles drafted him in 2018? He was good enough in 2020 to earn a four-year extension entering last year, and he’s gotten better every year of his pro career.
OL coach Jeff Stoutland deserves a world of credit for what he’s done with Mailata, who rated as the third-best offensive tackle in the NFL last year. 2022 will be when Mailata takes that next step from ‘one of the best offensive tackles’ to ‘the best offensive lineman in the game’, bar none. And it’s just not Mailata. Jason Kelce is a future Hall of Famer. Lane Johnson is a perennial Pro Bowler. Landon Dickerson is a blossoming guard. Isaac Seumalo is a fine starter who was a contributor on the Super Bowl team.
It’s a Super Bowl hangover for Cincinnati
People are down on the Bengals heading into 2022, but don’t forget they were just 10-7 last year and won each of their first three playoff games by one score. The offensive line has been improved, but it’s still a below-average unit. Cincinnati now has a first place schedule plus they have to contend with a now-healthy Baltimore Ravens team. Joe Burrow gets the Bengals to 10 wins again in ’22, but it’s not good enough for a playoff berth.
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley both finish with under 700 rushing yards
Derrick Henry has been a truly special talent at running back, but sustaining the workload he’s handled is nearly impossible. One of these days, his body is just going to give out, and it’s going to be sooner than you expect. Saquon Barkley hasn’t been the same player since his dynamic rookie campaign. Injuries have taken their toll on him, and a poor QB/OL situation doesn’t help his case.
Josh Allen wins NFL MVP
What are the best quarterback seasons in NFL history? Dan Marino 1984. Peyton Manning 2004. Tom Brady 2007. And we’re about to add Josh Allen 2022 to the list.
Allen has every physical tool you’d want from a quarterback, and he’s about to wreck the NFL. There’s no throw he can’t make. He’s his team’s running game. He’s a perennial MVP candidate. After this year, he’ll have three No. 1 overall QB fantasy seasons in just five years as a starter. And we’ll talk about Josh Allen – and not Patrick Mahomes – as the consensus best QB in football.
Prediction in 2022: 5,068 passing yards, 51 TD, 12 INT; 847 rushing yards, 10 TD
Justin Jefferson goes 150/2,000 and wins Offensive Player of the Year
There are multiple reasons to believe Justin Jefferson could be in for a record-setting year in 2022. His new coach, Kevin O’Connell, was the offensive coordinator for Cooper Kupp’s 145/1,947/16 campaign a year ago, which earned Kupp the Offensive Player of the Year award. Kirk Cousins is Jefferson’s quarterback, and while Cousins gets his fair share of overcriticism, he does have the third-highest completion percentage in NFL history. Jefferson also has a clean injury history and has the most receiving yards ever (3,016) for a player’s first two seasons.
Prediction in 2022: 151/2,034/16
Derwin James wins the Defensive Player of the Year voting
The similarities between Jalen Ramsey and Derwin James are uncanny.
Ramsey: 6’1 ¼”, 209, 33” arms, 9 ½” hands, 4.41 40, 41 ½” vertical leap, 14 bench reps
James: 6’1 ¾”, 215, 33” arms, 9 ½” hands, 4.47 40, 40” vertical leap, 21 bench reps
Jalen Ramsey is the best cornerback in the game and a three-time First-Team AP All-Pro who did wonders for Brandon Staley’s defense when the two were together in Los Angeles. Derwin James is a safety with more of an injury history but he has remarkable versatility. James essentially plays five positions – free safety, strong safety, outside corner, slot corner, and even as a blitzer off the edge.
James’ multitude of injuries can’t be overlooked; he missed 11 games with a stress fracture in his foot in 2019 and then the entire 2020 season with a torn meniscus. The Chargers absolutely need James to be healthy for Staley to be able to run his defense, but if James is able to stay on the field, his playmaking upside is through the roof.
Prediction in 2022: 15 starts, 5 INT, 5 sacks, 5 FF, 120 tackles; first player in NFL history with 5 INT/5 sacks/5 FF in the same season
Breece Hall wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
Only one of the last five players to win Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a quarterback (Kyler Murray), and with Kenny Pickett being the only quarterback selected in the first round, Pickett has to be considered among the favorites, given that he was a four-year starter at the University of Pittsburgh and a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2021.
Breece Hall is my pick though, largely because of the situation he’s entering. Michael Carter wore down as the every-week starter last year, missing three games due to a sprained ankle and another one with a Week 17 concussion. Hall has immediate three-down potential and possesses the explosiveness to be a difference-maker for an offense relying heavily on second-year quarterback Zach Wilson to break out.
Prediction in 2022: 204/867/6 rushing, 45/423/5 receiving
Sauce Gardner wins Defensive Rookie of the Year
The NFL needs a cornerback like Sauce Gardner, a young, talented, and brash cornerback who can come in and make an immediate impact. Sauce (you can’t refer to a player like that by his last name) has elite physical tools, checking in at 6’2” while clocking a blazing 4.41 40. He fell behind Derek Stingley in the draft, but Sauce is a safer pick as a rookie given Stingley’s late-career struggles at LSU. Sauce will start all 17 games as a rookie and come close to a unanimous Defensive Rookie of the Year selection.
Prediction in 2022: 17 starts, 4 INT, 16 passes defensed
Travis Etienne wins Comeback Player of the Year
Travis Etienne missed all of his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, but he’s reportedly fully healthy and ready to produce in 2022. Etienne’s speciality is as a pass-catching back, and he averaged 12.3 yards per catch as a senior at Clemson. Etienne’s skills in the receiving game means he can play on all three downs.
Prediction in 2022: 167/645/4 rushing; 80/883/6 receiving
Mike McDaniel wins Coach of the Year
There wasn’t a lot of buzz for Mike McDaniel before he got the Miami Dolphins coaching job, and his first task will be revitalizing the career of struggling QB Tua Tagovailoa. If you saw my earlier prediction, you see I have Tua completing a single-season record 75.0% of his passes. McDaniel learned under the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and he’s creative enough to know how to use Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki in the passing game. Don’t overlook the possibility of Hill and Waddle being used on end arounds as well.
NFC East winner
Dallas might have the most stars in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and Trevon Diggs, but the Eagles have the best combination of offensive and defensive line in the NFL. Add that to a last-place schedule and the Eagles will win 12 games with ease.
Prediction: Eagles (12-5), Cowboys (8-9), Commanders (6-11), Giants (2-15)
NFC North winner
Even without Davante Adams, Green Bay’s ball-control offense and dynamic defense – plus Aaron Rodgers – will carry the Packers to 12 wins. Kevin O’Connell will have to decide whether he wants Kirk Cousins to be his long-term quarterback, but the roster is loaded enough that Minnesota can still spend up until December in the division hunt.
Prediction: Packers (12-5), Vikings (11-6)*, Lions (7-10), Bears (4-13)
NFC South winner
Until Tom Brady is not in the starting lineup, Tampa Bay has to be considered the division favorites and Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. They could win this division by Thanksgiving. New Orleans gets the seventh playoff spot with a losing record – another reason the NFL should have stuck with 12 playoff teams.
Prediction: Buccaneers (11-6), Saints (8-9)*, Panthers (5-12), Falcons (4-13)
NFC West winner
Trey Lance is not only the most important player on San Francisco; his performance in 2022 has a chance to change the dynamics of the entire NFL. The 49ers roster is loaded, but it depends on how much Kyle Shanahan can get from his largely unknown QB. The Rams are the safer pick, but they’re also the better team.
Prediction: Rams (12-5), 49ers (11-6)*, Cardinals (7-10), Seahawks (4-13)
AFC East winner
For almost 20 years in a row, you could pencil in New England, simply stating “Belichick and Brady”, and that was enough. Now? There’s a reason everyone is on the Bills’ hype train. They’re going to cruise to 14 wins, and this year, they’ll actually win some one-score games. Miami is your surprise 10-win team behind a resurgence from Tua Tagovailoa and a plethora of receiving weapons – but not a playoff team due to a powerful AFC.
Prediction: Bills (14-3), Dolphins (10-7), Patriots (8-9), Jets (4-13)
AFC North winner
Before Baltimore’s late-season collapse in 2021, don’t forget that they were 8-3 and in first place in the AFC. Behind a healthy and loaded-up secondary plus a contract-fueled Lamar Jackson, the Ravens cruise to 13 wins. The Bengals win double-digit games but manage to miss the playoffs.
Prediction: Ravens (13-4), Bengals (10-7), Steelers (9-8), Browns (7-10)
AFC South winner
It’s easy to forget that Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, but Indianapolis’ upgraded quarterback situation will propel the Colts to a division title. In Jacksonville, Doug Pederson has the team looking up, but it will take a GM change for this team to contend.
Prediction: Colts (10-7), Titans (9-8), Jaguars (7-10), Texans (3-14)
AFC West winner
This division will be more fun than any division in the history of the NFL. You could legitimately make a case for any of the four to win it. I think the Chargers did a tremendous job in capitalizing on Justin Herbert’s rookie contract by adding Khalil Mack (trade) and J.C. Jackson (free agency), and they have enough firepower to win an extremely tough division.
Prediction: Chargers (12-5), Chiefs (11-6)*, Broncos (11-6)*, Raiders (10-7)
NFC Wild Card Round
2 Eagles over 7 Saints: In the fourth playoff matchup between these teams since 2006, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles take advantage of three Jameis Winston turnovers to win, 31-20.
6 Vikings over 3 Rams: UPSET ALERT. People seem to forget that Kirk Cousins has already won a playoff game, doing so when he threw a walkoff TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in OT to knock off Drew Brees. But will beating Matthew Stafford and the reigning Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams finally get him some respect?
5 49ers over 4 Buccaneers: Trey Lance throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, rushes for another 70 and a touchdown, and the Niners; defense stifles Tom Brady en route to a 27-20 victory.
AFC Wild Card Round
2 Ravens over 7 Raiders: A contract-motivated Lamar Jackson rushes for 169 yards in this game and Justin Tucker kicks four 40+ yard field goals in a 26-20 win.
3 Chargers over 6 Broncos: Any regular season AFC West game has playoff excitement, and here’s an actual AFC West playoff matchup. Justin Herbert’s playoff debut sees him throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.
5 Chiefs over 4 Colts: It’s unusual for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to be playing a road playoff game, let alone a road Wild Card playoff game, but such is the case here. KC limits Jonathan Taylor to 87 rushing yards in a 19-10 win.
NFC Divisional Round
1 Packers over 6 Vikings: After sweeping the Packers during the regular season, the Vikings fall short in the playoffs, ceding a combined 303 rushing yards to A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones.
5 49ers over 2 Eagles: Down 14-6 at halftime, Kyle Shanahan makes the switch from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners roll to a 28-21 victory and their third NFC Championship Game berth in the last four seasons, which will set up every podcast across the nation with an easy “Garoppolo or Lance?” topic.
AFC Divisional Round
1 Bills over 5 Chiefs: After the way last year’s playoff clash ended, this might be the most hyped non-Super Bowl matchup in NFL history. Bills fans are used to disappointment, but not this time. Josh Allen throws for six – count ‘em, six – touchdowns in a 49-30 victory, marking the first time ever Mahomes doesn’t reach the conference championship game.
3 Chargers over 2 Ravens: This will be four playoff trips without an appearance in the AFC Championship Game, and the Lamar Jackson critics will have plenty to run with after he takes six sacks and fumbles twice in a 20-14 loss.
NFC Championship Game
1 Packers over 5 49ers: It’s back to Trey Lance in this one, and the Packers’ defense overwhelms him all game. Lance is sacked six times, throws multiple interceptions, and the Packers finally win a home NFC Championship Game under Matt LaFleur.
AFC Championship Game
1 Bills over 3 Chargers: Fresh off knocking off Patrick Mahomes in the divisional playoffs, Josh Allen & Co. win a shootout against Justin Herbert & Co. Tre’Davious White records a pick-six, annual playoff hero Von Miller gets a pair of sacks, and the Bills win, 42-39.
Super Bowl
With Josh Allen fresh off one of the most ridiculous MVP seasons we’ve ever seen and Aaron Rodgers a four-time NFL MVP, we’re gearing up for one of the greatest head-to-head quarterback matchups of all-time. Buffalo takes a 21-10 halftime lead behind three Allen touchdown passes and hangs on for a 34-28 victory and the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl title.
Super Bowl MVP
With his three TD passes and a 120.8 passer rating, Allen puts the finishing touches on one of the most dominant seasons ever. He becomes the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win both regular season and Super Bowl MVP.
