There’s one thing we’ve got to get out of the way when it comes to mock drafts. No one has any idea what will happen. You may think you do, but you don’t. I don’t. Nobody does. Not a single pick is a lock, not even one that feels obvious. Just wait until the start of the draft. No one will even have their first six or seven selections all correct, especially considering the unpredictability of trades.
Below I created my official first-round mock draft for the 2016 season. I didn’t include trades, other than the two that have already happened. My justification? It’s absolutely impossible to determine when a team is in love enough with a player to shoot up the draft boards and select him. I chose to stick with each team picking at their slotted draft spot. Each pick includes an explanation, shorter if the pick is seemingly obvious and longer if the pick is an unusual one.
1 – Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, California
My original mock draft had the Tennessee Titans selecting Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, the best player in the draft and the blindside blocker for Marcus Mariota for the next decade. Then the Rams went and traded six draft picks – two firsts, two seconds and two thirds – for the Titans’ number one overall selection. Reports suggest the Rams aren’t completely sold on which quarterback they will draft. I’m not buying those reports for a second. Obviously they know, or they wouldn’t have mortgaged the future. Jared Goff is the more NFL-ready quarterback, he’s from California and he’s now the player the Rams will need to save the jobs of both Les Snead and Jeff Fisher. Let’s hope the Goff era goes better for the Los Angeles Rams than the Bradford era did for the St. Louis Rams.
2 – Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
There’s absolutely no drama with this selection once the first pick in the draft has been made. Vegas odds say there’s almost a 95 percent chance that Goff is the number one pick, and I’m inclined to agree. Every report has indicated that the Eagles prefer Division 1-AA prospect Carson Wentz over Goff anyway. It’ll be interesting to see if the Eagles trade Sam Bradford or if Bradford remains with the 2016 Eagles and Wentz spends the entire season on the bench. But by 2017, the Eagles will be his team, as Doug Pederson and Howie Roseman look to lead the Eagles to their first playoff win since the 2008 campaign.
3 – San Diego Chargers: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
The Chargers essentially have the number one overall pick in the draft since there’s no way they’d be picking either one of the two quarterbacks. The consensus best player in this draft is Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, but a number of off-the-field concerns regarding Tunsil could cause him to slide down draft boards a little more than anticipated. Ronnie Stanley is the much safer choice, a player who can fill in at either left or right tackle as a rookie. I see the appeal for the Chargers when it comes to versatile defensive back Jalen Ramsey, but when it comes to the final few seasons of Philip Rivers’ career, offensive line help is much more important.
4 – Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
It would be fascinating to see if the Cowboys would have picked Jared Goff or Carson Wentz had they fallen to pick four. Now it’ll be fascinating to see whether they select all-world running back prospect Ezekiel Elliott, who many believe could be the next Emmitt Smith running behind the game’s best offensive line. While the Cowboys have to be intrigued by a win-now player like Elliott, I think the production of Darren McFadden, plus the addition of veteran Alfred Morris, suggests the Cowboys will look in a different direction than running back with their first-round pick. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey is basically a dream scenario for the Cowboys, as he can play either cornerback or safety. Ramsey will be the second straight first-round defensive back for the Cowboys, and he’s good enough that he could compete for Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2016. After that, the sky is the limit for the best defensive back prospect since Patrick Peterson.
5 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
Arguably the best defensive player in the draft, Myles Jack will be perfect for head coach Gus Bradley, whose defense has ranked among the worst in the league over the past three seasons. Jack is incredibly versatile, a tackling machine with the ability to cover tight ends and even slot receivers while lining up all over the middle of the field. The reports about Jack’s knee are definitely a concern, but in the end, the Jaguars can’t afford to roll the dice and allow such a talented prospect to pass by.
6 – Baltimore Ravens: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
You couldn’t have scripted a better scenario for general manager Ozzie Newsome, who may literally sprint to the podium to hand in his card for the best overall prospect in the 2016 class. Already equipped with one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, the Ravens can start Tunsil at right tackle and move him to the left side in a year or two. And yes, he just might be the next Jonathan Ogden.
7 – San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
With both Carson Wentz and Jared Goff off the board, the Niners can target the best player available for either side of the ball. Former Oregon standout defensive lineman DeForest Buckner is an obvious choice right here. In fact, Pro Football Focus calls Buckner the number one player in the whole draft class. Now new head coach Chip Kelly will have Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, two of his former stars from Oregon, on his defensive line.
8 – Cleveland Browns: Jack Conklin, OT/G, Michigan State
It’ll be intriguing to see whether the new analytics department in Cleveland determines Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch worthy of a top-ten selection. My guess is no, as head coach Hue Jackson would probably prefer attempting to revive the career of Robert Griffin III. The Browns can still select a quarterback, perhaps Dak Prescott in the third round, while adding a very safe tackle/guard option in Jack Conklin.
9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
The Buccaneers have to be thrilled to see Joey Bosa falling to the ninth pick. Arguably the best pure pass-rusher in the draft, Bosa is a slam-dunk choice for new head coach Dirk Koetter. With Bosa, Gerald McCoy and last year’s breakout player Jacquies Smith, the Bucs now have a pretty formidable defensive line.
10 – New York Giants: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
I think the Giants will take a really long look at Vernon Hargreaves here, even with their splurge on the defensive side of the ball in free agency. But providing another weapon for Eli Manning, especially as he approaches the final few seasons of his career, is what really matters. Ezekiel Elliott is the most complete running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, and it doesn’t hurt that the Giants desperately need help at the position. Imagine Manning, Elliott, Odell Beckham and a healthy Victor Cruz on the same offense.
11 – Chicago Bears: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
With veteran Bobby Massie currently slated to start at left tackle, the Bears should take a long hard look at an offensive lineman. But Stanley, Tunsil and Conklin are already off the board, and it’s probably too early to grab a player like Taylor Decker or Ryan Kelly. Cornerback Vernon Hargreaves is easily the best player available on the board, and can team with 2014 first-round pick Kyle Fuller to provide a really solid tandem at cornerback.
12 – New Orleans Saints: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
The Saints and awful defenses has been all too common of a theme over the last few seasons. They’re wasting the final stretch of Drew Brees’ career with units that allow close to 30 points per game, and in a division with three above-average quarterbacks, playmakers on the defensive side of the ball are desperately needed. Oklahoma State cornerback Eli Apple projects as a day-one starter at the next level, a cornerback who will be tasked with covering elite receivers such as Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Kelvin Benjamin.
13 – Miami Dolphins: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
The Miami Dolphins keep using high draft picks to rebuild their offensive line, but it isn’t working, as Ryan Tannehill has been sacked a league-high 184 times since his rookie season. Decker will be the Dolphins’ third first-round offensive lineman since 2011, a necessity in a division with three of the best front-sevens in the National Football League.
14 – Oakland Raiders: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
A few years ago, it seemed that all the Raiders did was blow high draft picks, from Darrius Heyward-Bey to Rolando McClain to D.J. Hayden. Then they picked both Khalil Mack and Derek Carr in 2014, plus Amari Cooper in 2015, and all of sudden, the Raiders have become one of the NFL’s sleeper playoff picks for the 2016 season. In arguably the best defensive tackle class in years, the Raiders have their choice of interior defenders at pick 14. Sheldon Rankins offers tremendous upside as both a run-stuffer and a pass-rusher.
15 – Tennessee Titans: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
The general consensus seems to be that the Titans will take an offensive tackle with pick 15, but it’s their defense that needs even more work than the offensive side of the ball. No player on Tennessee collected more than seven sacks in 2015, making pass-rusher Shaw Lawson a fairly obvious choice as new general manager Jon Robinson’s first-ever draft pick.
16 – Detroit Lions: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
The Lions are a complete enigma heading into the 2016 season. One of the league’s hottest teams in the second half of the 2015 season won seven of their final nine contests, but faces a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball following the surprise retirement of All-Pro receiver Calvin Johnson. Baylor’s Corey Coleman becomes the first pass-catcher drafted in April’s draft, providing instant help on the opposite side of the field from Golden Tate.
17 – Atlanta Falcons: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
There are few quarterbacks in the NFL more elevated by their teammates than Matt Ryan, who has been missing a complement to Julio Jones ever since Roddy White’s gradual decline a few seasons ago. Although the Falcons did sign Mohamed Sanu in free agency, they’ll add a much more explosive weapon with their first-round pick, grabbing physical receiving threat Laquan Treadwell to pair with Jones.
18 – Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Kelly, C/G, Alabama
It’s been four years and the Indianapolis Colts still haven’t found a way to protect their franchise quarterback. In fact, they really haven’t made much of an effort, choosing instead to spend money and draft picks on positions like wide receiver and running back while using mid-round picks on offensive linemen who become fringe starters. Let’s hope general manager Ryan Grigson realizes the importance of protecting Andrew Luck and picks the draft’s most impressive interior lineman, Ryan Kelly, a player who can start at center or either one of the guard positions.
19 – Buffalo Bills: Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
The Buffalo Bills are an interesting team, as their offense was significantly better than expected in 2015, but their defense was basically a colossal disappointment. Since Rex Ryan is obsessed with the defensive side of the ball (in case you weren’t aware), I’m going to assume he passes on Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, as he should, considering Tyrod Taylor’s impressive 2015 season after four seasons as a backup. Baylor’s Andrew Billings gives the Bills a tremendous run-stuffer in the middle of their defensive line, which could allow them to move Marcell Dareus to defensive end. Billings is ridiculously strong and athletic, and would help improve a run defense that ranked 25th in yards per carry allowed last season.
20 – New York Jets: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
I don’t buy the reports that Paxton Lynch will be picked in the top 10, even in a pretty weak draft class, especially at the top of the board. I have him mocked to a team that currently doesn’t have a legitimate option as their starter. The Jets have been playing hardball with Ryan Fitzpatrick since the end of the season. This gives them even more leverage, and could result in him leaving for a place like Denver. Most experts would agree that Lynch isn’t NFL-ready for at least a year or two, and this puts the Jets in the awkward situation of having to start either Lynch or failed starter Geno Smith.
21 – Washington Redskins: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
There’s a lot of buzz surrounding Leonard Floyd, with reports saying the Buccaneers, Giants and Bears are all very interested in the former Georgia pass-rusher. But in the end, Floyd isn’t the first player to be drafted later than his expected value, as he slips to pick 21 here. In a weak class for pass-rushers, Floyd is the second-best option. He can team with Ryan Kerrigan and a hopefully-healthy Junior Galette to provide value to an underrated and improving defense.
22 – Houston Texans: Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
Purely a BPA selection, Vernon Butler can line up anywhere on the defensive line in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 scheme. He’s comparable to Jonathan Hankins by CBS Sports, and if Butler and 2014 number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney can both live up to their potential, the Texans could have the most intimidating defensive line in the NFL, one that could allow JJ Watt to annually challenge the single-season sack record.
23 – Minnesota Vikings: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
Allow me to join the 97.4 percent of mock drafts giving the Minnesota Vikings a receiver in the first round. It does makes sense though. They’re a playoff team with a tremendous defense, a young quarterback, a terrific running back, a solid offensive line but no weapon at wide receiver. Doctson has a high ceiling, and some would consider him to be the best receiving prospect in this class. Even as a rookie, he’ll probably be the number one target for Teddy Bridgewater.
24 – Cincinnati Bengals: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
Arguably the most talented roster in the NFL, the Bengals lost their number two and number three receivers via free agency. They still have AJ Green and Tyler Eifert, so it’s not like they need to force a pick here. And personally, I’m not a big fan of Will Fuller, who has “the next Ted Ginn” written all over him. But he has incredible speed, and it’s not hard to see the appeal of adding yet another weapon for playoff-winless quarterback Andy Dalton.
25 – Pittsburgh Steelers: William Jackson, CB, Houston
The talk in Pittsburgh is that general manager Kevin Colbert is obsessed with finding a cornerback in the 2016 draft. The Steelers haven’t used a first-round pick on the position since 1997, a streak that should end this month. William Jackson has enough upside to earn a week 1 starting spot in a Steelers secondary that has become one of the bottom units in the NFL.
26 – Seattle Seahawks: Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Ironically, the Seahawks haven’t picked in the first round in three straight seasons, twice trading the pick for a pass-catcher (Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham) and once moving back eight spots to acquire an extra mid-round selection. The last time they picked in the first round, they reached – badly – for a position of need, overdrafting pass-rusher Bruce Irvin. While it’s never a good idea to target a specific position over the best player available, the Seahawks may be in a position where they could do the same again. Arguably the league’s worst offensive line needs talent so badly that it basically makes sense for the Seahawks to take the best available offensive lineman with the 26th pick. That’s what I have them doing here with Indiana offensive tackle Jason Spriggs, who will likely start for Seattle at left tackle from day one.
27 – Green Bay Packers: Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
A top 15 or 20 player on most draft big boards, Darron Lee slips to the bottom of the first round before the Packers snatch up the former Ohio State standout linebacker. A redshirt sophomore in 2015 and a former quarterback and Lee has a ton of potential as he continues to grow at the linebacker position. He’s a hit-and-run attacking linebacker who will be a versatile chess piece in a defense lacking playmakers.
28 – Kansas City Chiefs: Mackenzie Alexander, CB, Clemson
Andy Reid has always placed a high emphasis on cornerbacks. From Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent to Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown to Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel to Marcus Peters and Sean Smith, never let it be said that he ignored the position the way he’s been accused of doing for wide receiver and linebacker. After losing Smith to the rival Oakland Raiders, the Chiefs grab one of the draft class’s best cover defenders in Mackenzie Alexander. This will be two straight years for Kansas City picking a corner in the first round, but it’s necessary when you have Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas and Keenan Allen in your division.
29 – Arizona Cardinals: Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
I’ve seen a number of mock drafts peg linebacker Jaylon Smith as the pick for the Arizona Cardinals here, and I wonder if they’ll be tempted to pull the trigger on a player who has as much upside as any in the entire 2016 draft. But the Cardinals are a team in win-now mode, as Carson Palmer approaches the final stretch of his career, and they need playmakers who can contribute on either side of the ball now, not in a year or two. Noah Spence is a big risk, a player with top 15 talent who has failed multiple drug tests. Add in his small frame (just 251 pounds) and you have a risky pick for general manager Steve Keim. But the Cardinals have pulled the trigger on character-issue players in the past, and the success of a pick like Tyrann Mathieu could influence the Spence selection here. If Spence pans out, the Cardinals will have an unstoppable pass-rush duo with he and newly-acquired Chandler Jones.
30 – Carolina Panthers: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
Carolina has quietly become one of the most efficiently-run franchises in the National Football League. They’ve won three straight division titles and are fresh off a 15-1 season that ended in a trip to the Super Bowl. The loss of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman would cause many teams to force a selection of a corner with this pick, but that’s not the style of general manager Dave Gettleman. He’ll pick the best player on his board and in this case, it’s a pass-rusher in Emmanuel Ogbah who can hopefully become the next Greg Hardy, minus the off-the-field issues, of course.
31 – Denver Broncos: Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
Will the Denver Broncos trade for a quarterback before the start of the 2016 season? I’m going to say yes. I just don’t think general manager John Elway will allow Mark Sanchez, a fringe starter to say the least, to enter the season as the starting quarterback for the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Broncos have reportedly been in talks with Sam Bradford after the Eagles’ quarterback made it clear that he wanted to be traded, and of course, there’s the Colin Kaepernick situation that has been brewing for a number of months. In the end, I think Elway will swing a trade for Kaepernick, giving the Broncos the flexibility to draft the best player available at the end of the first round. Defensive lineman Chris Jones can line up at tackle or end, helping to replace the void left by last year’s free-agent departure Malik Jackson. He’s raw and inconsistent, but on the Broncos, he wouldn’t be expected to contribute immediately, a la Shane Ray from 2015.
