Buffalo at Houston
Why Buffalo Should Win
This isn’t the same old Bills team. The last time we saw Buffalo in the playoffs was a 2017 team that snuck into January despite a -57 point differential and a horrendous run defense. This 2019 team? This is a club predicated on a stout running attack and standout defense, one that features stars at every position on that side of the ball.
Buffalo was second in fewest points allowed (16.1 per game) and third in fewest total yards allowed (298.3 per game) this year. They held the Baltimore Ravens to its lowest yardage output of 2019 (257). They gave Tom Brady fits in Week 4 and held him to one touchdown pass and a 76.2 passer rating in two total games. And they held Dallas’ No. 1 total offense to just 15 points.
Tre’Davious White is a dynamic cover corner – he tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (6) and did so all without allowing a single touchdown pass. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer make up a top-three safety duo. Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano lead an athletic linebacking corps. And Jordan Phillips had his long-awaited breakout season at defensive tackle, registering 9.5 sacks (the heaviest player ever to do so).
Even thought he cut down his sacks this year, Deshaun Watson still takes way too many. He was sacked multiple times in 11 of his 16 starts and fumbled 10 times. Couple that with his 12 interceptions and surprisingly enough, the Texans rank in the bottom half of the league in turnovers. If Buffalo can jump on Watson early, put some constant pressure on him, and ground and pound the league’s eighth-ranked rushing attack, it could be a low-scoring win.
Why Houston Should Win
Houston’s defense has been awful over the last seven weeks, allowing 28 points per game and finishing the season with a negative point differential. But they get back three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt this weekend, they’re home, and do you really trust Josh Allen on the road?
In terms of era-adjusted completion percentage, Allen’s first two years in the league are the worst by any quarterback in NFL history. When pressured, Allen completes just 41 percent of his passes, the 34th ranked mark in the league. While Buffalo will likely need to hide their young quarterback for 60 minutes, Houston’s best bet is to simply let Deshaun Watson loose.
Watson is capable of shredding even the best defenses – look no further than his 140.7 passer rating against the vaunted New England defense in Week 13. There’s DeAndre Hopkins to worry about, and Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson have done an incredible job of replacing the injured (and now forgotten) Lamar Miller. And while the downfall of Texans teams was always the offensive line, they’re now entering the postseason as PFF’s fifth-rated pass-blocking unit.
The Pick
It’s easy to see this being a low-scoring game. Even with Watson/Hopkins on offense, Houston still finished just 14th in points scored and 13th in total yards. Buffalo’s defense is fierce. They’re extremely well-coached and they’re hungry for their first playoff win under this regime. Josh Allen makes just enough plays for the Bills to come away with a narrow victory.
Prediction: Buffalo 19, Houston 13
Tennessee at New England
Why Tennessee Should Win
Literally no one in America could have envisioned Tennessee entering the playoffs as arguably the NFL’s hottest offense. They were a bland and vanilla offense under Marcus Mariota, bottoming out in a 16-0 loss that saw Mariota get benched. Since Ryan Tannehill took over as starter the following week, they’ve been unstoppable.
They’ve scored 20 points in every game. They lead the NFL in yards per play (6.9). During that span, they have a higher yards-per-carry average than the Baltimore Ravens, a team that set the single-season team record for rushing yards. They’re first in passer rating. They run the play action better than any team in the league, and they have the perfect offensive weapons to do so. A year after taking home field advantage from New England via the Miami Miracle, Tannehill has a chance to eliminate the Patriots from the postseason.
Tennessee’s offense starts with Derrick Henry, a 247-pound monster who has an uncanny ability to get stronger both as the game goes on. He’s fresh off a 212-yard, three-touchdown outburst in Week 17. The NFL’s rushing champion also led the league in yards per carry after contact (4.2), meaning he doesn’t go down when the first defender hits him. A.J. Brown is a YAC machine who was also the league’s leading receiver over the last six weeks. And Jonnu Smith is a ridiculously athletic tight end who lines up everywhere from fullback to in-line tight end to slot receiver to out wide.
Tannehill is the biggest surprise of them all, as he played his best football ever in a 10-start sample that saw him lead the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt in 2019. He throws an excellent deep ball, posts good numbers even when pressured, and can make plays with his legs. Tannehill doesn’t throw many interceptions and Tennessee typically takes advantage of its scoring opportunities, finishing with the highest red zone touchdown rate of any team (75.6).
And remember what happened when the Titans and Patriots played last year? Mike Vrabel beat his old coach by 24 points, winning 34-10. To date, it’s one of only four instances in which a Brady/Belichick team has lost a game by that many points. To be fair, the Patriots were without Rob Gronkowski for the matchup, but they won’t have Gronk for this one either. It’s a winnable game for Tennessee, even going on the road to football haven Foxborough.
Why New England Should Win
Come on, it’s Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. They’ve been together for two decades, won six Super Bowls, and been to nine together. They don’t lose home wild card playoff games to the annual 9-7 Titans. In fact, New England doesn’t even have to play in the first round in the postseason more than once a decade.
New England’s defense is not just great; it’s historically great. The Patriots led the NFL in fewest points allowed (14.1 per game), fewest total yards allowed (275.9 per game), interceptions (25), lowest passer rating allowed (62.8), and lowest third down percentage (24.1). That third down percentage is not just the best total in the league this year – it edged out the single-season record set by the 2017 Minnesota Vikings.
Stephon Gilmore is a lockdown shutdown corner who can shadow an opposition’s No. 1 wide receiver. Devin McCourty is a ballhawk at safety. Jamie Collins makes plays everywhere on the field. Kyle Van Noy is the best pass rusher and Lawrence Guy isn’t Vince Wilfork but he’s a Pro Bowl talent clogging the middle of the defensive line. It will be by far the best defense both Tannehill and Henry have faced all year, and Tannehill – who still takes too many sacks – faces a defense that registered 47 sacks in 2019.
Meanwhile, Brady hasn’t been the same quarterback in his age-42 season, but look how the Patriots turned back the clock a year ago when he wasn’t on his ‘A’ game either. They became a simplified, ball-control offense that rode running back Sony Michel’s six rushing touchdowns in the postseason to a Super Bowl championship. That’s the best-case scenario for this game.
The Pick
Is it blind faith or is it recognition that Belichick is the greatest coach to ever roam the sidelines during an NFL game? He’s made the playoffs on 16 occasions. He’s 14-2 in his first playoff game with an average margin of victory of 11.6 points. Sure, he normally has an extra week to prepare for the game, but if you look solely at his wild card matchups, he’s 2-1 with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points.
He’ll find ways to compensate for a Patriots offense that lacks a downfield threat. Look for a Mohamed Sanu or Julian Edelman pass, lots of screens to underrated pass catching back James White, and a strong performance from New England’s stifling defense.
Prediction: New England 24, Tennessee 20
Minnesota at New Orleans
Why Minnesota Should Win
There are few weaknesses on this Minnesota team. They’re eighth in points scored, fifth in points allowed, and they have a +104 point differential that suggests they’re every bit as good as their 10-6 record. A +11 turnover margin shows the Vikings protect the ball on offense and force takeaways on defense. And they’re getting Dalvin Cook back after he missed two games with a shoulder injury.
The Vikings’ offense is at its best with the threat of the play action. Kirk Cousins posted absurd numbers when throwing from play action (a 71.8 completion percentage, 14 TD to just 2 INT, 9.7 YPA, and a 129.2 passer rating), and Cousins threw from play action at the sixth-highest rate of any quarterback. New Orleans is also missing pass rushers Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport,
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings pressure the opposing quarterback frequently. They’re sixth in sacks and second in sack yards lost. Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen are stud edge rushers, but it doesn’t stop there. Eric Kendricks is a stellar off-ball linebacker. In the secondary, Harrison Smith is arguably the game’s best all-around safety and Anthony Harris tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions. When you’re playing Drew Brees, you need players that can rush the passer and force turnovers.
It’s fair to say the Saints’ defense struggles against good offense. New Orleans allowed 28 points and almost 400 yards to the red-hot Ryan Tannehill/Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans. And two weeks prior, Jimmy Garoppolo gashed the Saints for 48 points, the most New Orleans had allowed all year. The key for Minnesota will be controlling the clock and taking an early lead.
Why New Orleans Should Win
At age 40, Drew Brees is playing arguably the best football of his career. He led the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio and nearly set a new single-season record for completion percentage. Perhaps the month off due to injury in the middle of the year has kept him fresh because he’s entering the postseason riding a ridiculous 137.0 passer rating over his last four games.
Brees protects the ball extremely well. In fact, this Saints team quietly set the league record for fewest turnovers in a 16-game season (eight). Alvin Kamara is a terror to defend out of the backfield and All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas has a strong case for Offensive Player of the Year after having broken Marvin Harrison’s record for single-season receptions. Thomas will likely be covered by Xavier Rhodes, a former Pro Bowler who had by far his worst year as a pro in 2019. That’s a matchup Brees will exploit, and to date, no one has slowed down the Brees/Thomas duo yet this season.
It’s an underrated New Orleans defense as well. They’re fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed. Cameron Jordan is unblockable off the edge and Demario Davis was rewarded with an All-Pro selection for his outstanding year at linebacker. And when you have Brees at quarterback, you usually just have to hold the other team under 24 points and that’s enough to win.
The Pick
It’s fitting that Drew Brees gets an opportunity to avenge the heartbreaking Minneapolis Miracle from two postseasons ago, although this time he gets home field advantage on his side. Brees is almost unbeatable a home in the postseason, and we know the narrative of Kirk Cousins in big games. It may get blown out of proportion, but facts are facts: Cousins is significantly worse in road games, especially in primetime, and he’s going to have to outscore Brees & Co.
Prediction: New Orleans 27, Minnesota 16
Seattle at Philadelphia
Why Seattle Should Win
This Seattle team is full of injuries – Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Duane Brown, Justin Britt, and maybe Jadeveon Clowney. But it’s Russell Wilson’s team, and he’s magical in overcoming situations like this. Wilson would have been the NFL’s MVP this year had it not been for Lamar Jackson, and he routinely makes big plays in clutch times to give Seattle wins. This year’s Seahawks team had just a +7 point differential, yet won 11 games because they were a remarkable 10-2 in one-score games.
Wilson is a proven playoff quarterback. He’s won a Super Bowl, been to another, and in typical Russell Wilson fashion, posted better numbers on the road than at home this year. He and Tyler Lockett have made magic all year – their 127.1 passer rating was the highest of any QB/WR duo in the NFL in 2019. And Wilson to D.K. Metcalf was equally as effective, with the two hooking up for a 110.3 passer rating. That’s a tough ask for the Eagles’ wounded corners to cover.
Seattle’s defense is nowhere near the Legion of Boom, but it shouldn’t be too much to ask for them to cover Greg Ward and Robert Davis. Zach Ertz probably won’t play. Miles Sanders may be limited. Boston Scott has been a great story, but he’s a 5’6” practice squad player expected to play a pivotal role in a playoff game. And when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter, is there any quarterback you’d rather have than Wilson?
Why Philadelphia Should Win
This Eagles team may be composed of the scrap heap, junk pile, and replacement parts, but they’re jelling at the right time. They’ve won four straight with Carson Wentz playing like a franchise quarterback during that stretch, and they went from 5-7 to now hosting a banged-up Seattle team at home in January.
This is a different Eagles team than the one that was snuffed out, 17-9, when the two teams played in November. It’s not just that Wentz has elevated his play; rookie Miles Sanders (likely to play) has emerged as a bonafide star with the ball in his hands. Unheralded 5’6” running back Boston Scott has added some juice to the offense, as has former college quarterback Greg Ward. And Doug Pederson’s heavy utilization of two-tight end sets keeps Dallas Goedert on the field, where he’s flashed as both a blocker and a receiver.
The Eagles are at their best on third down. The offense converts third downs at the fourth-best rate while the defense prevents them at the fourth-best rate. Even with injuries to Brandon Brooks (IR) and Lane Johnson (doubtful to play), the Eagles still boast a formidable offensive line.
And the defensive line has been one of the team’s strengths – Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham will provide matchup problems for Seattle. When the two teams last met, Russell Wilson was sacked six time. This time, he’ll be without his Pro Bowl LT in Duane Brown. Without Brown the last two weeks, Wilson has been running for his life. He’s been pressured on 42.4 percent of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Even more, the once-great Seattle defense really isn’t that good. Seattle was 22nd in points allowed and 26th in yards allowed. They’re 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed. They haven’t registered a takeaway for two straight games now. And they don’t play particularly well against mobile quarterbacks – they lost to Lamar Jackson, split with Kyler Murray, and gave up 34 points to Jameis Winston. That bodes extremely well for Wentz.
The Pick
After watching Nick Foles hoist the Lombardi trophy two years ago and then win another playoff game last year, Wentz finally gets his much-deserved opportunity to add to his own playoff legacy. His weapons are scarce, but he has several things going for him. This Eagles team is extremely well-coached by Doug Pederson. Philly has a huge advantage on both sides of the trenches. And Wentz has destroyed the ‘unclutch’ narrative. He’ll add to his own resume with a playoff win Sunday.
Prediction: Philadelphia 23, Seattle 21
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