True or False: 10 Week 1 Overreactions for 2020 NFL Season

FOXBOROUGH, MA – SEPTEMBER 13: New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton heads onto the field for the start of his first game in a New England uniform.The New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins in the opening game of the 2020 NFL season at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA on Sept. 13, 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
 
Week 1 is only Week 1, but if we look at last year, all the signs were there that Lamar Jackson would win MVP, Mitchell Trubisky would cost the Chicago Bears a playoff spot, and the LA Chargers would be just fine without Melvin Gordon.
 
There were also aberrations (remember how well Marcus Mariota directed the Tennessee offense?). It’s fun to break down 10 storylines from Week 1 and determine whether they’re foreshadowing the rest of 2020 or whether it’s simply a blip on the radar.
 
Cam Newton can be successful running the New England offense.
If anyone is the right man to coach Cam Newton, it’s New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels was at the helm when Tebow Mania swept the world in 2011, dialing up an offense that managed to win games despite a quarterback completing under 50 percent of his passes.
 
So give McDaniels an equally talented runner in Cam Newton who can pass the ball much better, and that’s a fun recipe for McDaniels to work with. Cam’s first game was a success – he went 15 of 19 passing, ran the ball an additional 15 times, and twice plunged it in for touchdowns. It was a relatively simple game plan with New England relying heavily on the running game against a defense that ranked dead-last in points allowed a year ago.
 
Is it sustainable for Supercam to run the ball 15 times a game? No. But can he be successful in New England now that he’s fully healthy? Absolutely.
 
Verdict: True
 
The Jacksonville tanking talk was premature.
If you ask all the media experts and so-called football pundits (hello!), the Jacksonville Jaguars were supposed to limp through the 2020 season, finishing with one or two wins, and then draft Trevor Lawrence.
 
No one told that to Gardner Minshew though. All the second-year quarterback did in Week 1 was complete a staggering 95 percent of his pass attempts, throw three touchdowns to no interceptions, and hit Keelan Cole for the 22-yard game-winner with 5:56 left in the fourth quarter. In the process, he put Jacksonville squarely in the driver’s seat in the AFC South at 1-0.
 
Realistically, it’s probably still going to be a rough season for the Jaguars. After stripping their roster of nearly all their talent in recent years (Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, and Leonard Fournette), they’re void of homegrown talent. Minshew looks promising and there are some building blocks in edge rusher Josh Allen and cornerback C.J. Henderson, but it won’t be enough to keep Jacksonville from a last place finish in the division.
 
Verdict: False
 
Letting Russell Wilson cook was an amazing idea.
Here were Russell Wilson’s single-season ranks in pass attempts in his first eight seasons:
 
2012: 26th
2013: 22nd
2014: 19th
2015: 18th
2016: 15th
2017: 6th
2018: 20th
2019: 13th
 
Aside from a temporary blip on the radar in 2017, the Seattle offense operated through the ground and pound run game of Marshawn Lynch and then Chris Carson. That’s not to say Wilson wasn’t a special quarterback, but the Pete Carroll offense requested him to manage the game early on and then turn it on in the fourth quarter.
 
After an offseason of Wilson requesting that every quarter be treated as if it’s the fourth quarter, that’s exactly what Carroll did. He dialed up 35 pass attempts for Wilson, the most impressive aspect being that 21 of them came on non-obvious passing downs (1st and 2nd down in the first three quarters). This, after Wilson averaged just 16 such per game in his first eight seasons.
 
Wilson finished the game with as many touchdown passes (four) as incompletions. He posted a 143.1 passer rating, ran for 29 more yards, and led Seattle to 38 points. There’s no reason to dial Wilson back anytime soon.
 
Verdict: True
 
The Buccaneers made a mistake signing Tom Brady.
It’s not every offseason a team gets to sign a three-time NFL MVP with six Super Bowl rings on his resume. So it’s tough to fault Tampa Bay for signing 43-year-old Tom Brady, even if two guaranteed seasons for a player Brady’s age is unprecedented from anything anyone has ever seen before.
 
Brady’s first game was a battle of two 40-something future Hall of Famers, and neither played well. Brady ran for a touchdown and threw two more (although one was in garbage time), but also tossed a pair of backbreaking interceptions, one returned for a pick-six. Both interceptions came from a clean pocket and were unseemly for a veteran quarterback like Brady.
 
Some rust is to be expected. There was no preseason. Training camp was different than ever before. It’s Brady’s first year with the Buccaneers. And he did play a terrific New Orleans Saints team that won 13 games a year ago. Brady gets a bounceback opportunity next week against a Carolina defense that ranked 31st in points allowed a year ago. It’s fair to surmise he will get back on track.
 
Verdict: False
 
Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold aren’t good enough to earn contract extensions.
We’re a little over two seasons into their careers and here are Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold’s respective statistical ranks out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks with 500+ pass attempts:
 
Completion percentage: Mayfield 30th (61.2%), Darnold 32nd (59.9%)
YPA: Mayfield 19th (7.31), Darnold 26th (6.86)
TD%: Mayfield 17th (4.70), Darnold 4.20 (24th)
INT%: Darnold 30th (3.26), Mayfield 31st (3.40)
Passer rating: Mayfield 27th (85.1), Darnold 32nd (80.8)
 
Mayfield is 12-18 as a starter, is working on his fourth head coach, and just put up six offensive points despite having a repertoire of Odell Bekcham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and David Njoku. Meanwhile, Darnold is 11-16 as a starter, has missed at least three games in both seasons to date, and plays on a team that could finish with four of fewer wins and be in prime position to draft Trevor Lawrence.
 
Verdict: True
 
The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour is underway.
The logical offseason move for Green Bay was to draft a first-round wide receiver to pair with Aaron Rodgers. So instead, the franchise pulled off the shocker of all shockers – trading up to select Rodgers’ successor, Jordan Love, in the first round, and then nabbing a bruising running back in the second round to help the ground and pound running game.
 
After an offseason that saw Jordan Love emerge from training camp as just the third quarterback on the depth chart, Rodgers unleashed in Week 1. Against a Minnesota defense that just added pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue, Rodgers was lethal. He completed 32 of 43 passes for 364 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 127.5 passer rating. He didn’t take any sacks. He threw deep 10 times, completing half with two going for long touchdowns.
 
Is it a sign of things to come for Rodgers? Over the last five or so years, Rodgers has still been a good quarterback, maybe a great one, but he hasn’t been the same electrifying passer that won a pair of MVP awards and set the world on fire. He gets another great matchup in Week 2 against a falling apart Detroit team that just surrendered three fourth-quarter touchdown passes to Mitchell Trubisky. It’s probably too early to saw Rodgers is back to being MVP vintage Rodgers, but he’s on the right track. Check back in a month or so.
 
Verdict: False
 
Dallas is right not to pay Dak Prescott.
It’s rare for a quarterback of Dak Prescott’s talent to enter a contract year without a new deal; in fact, Prescott becomes just the third quarterback in NFL history to play out a year on the franchise tag (Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins twice).
 
Week 1 was a golden opportunity for Dak to prove he’s deserving of a new deal, but he went 0-for-3 in scoring drives in the fourth quarter with the game on the line (including a two-minute drive opportunity). Dating back to the 2018 playoffs, he’s now lost eight of nine games decided by one score. Even with his stellar regular season stats from a year ago (4,902 passing yards, 30 touchdowns), it’s not worth the $35-40 million he will command annually.
 
There’s a reason Dallas hasn’t paid Dak. They believe a rookie quarterback can come in and command the offense of Ezekiel Elliott/Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb at close to an equal level – and at a much cheaper salary. Unless Dallas wins the division and makes a playoff run, it’s starting to look like Dak will be the unprecedented young talented quarterback to hit the open market.
 
Verdict: True
 
Gregg Williams will be the New York Jets’ head coach by November.
How many reasons do we need to fire Adam Gase? He’s 20-28 as a coach the last three years. He started 1-7 last year. And his team was completely unprepared to play Week 1, going down 21-0 early to the Buffalo Bills. Jets’ columnist Manish Mehta reports the team doesn’t respect Gase, and Jamal Adams would be the first to tell you that. And Gase’s response to any criticism is reportedly to quote that he’s “rich as f—.”
 
If Gase can’t develop Darnold, there’s no reason to keep him around. The updated Vegas odds after Week 1 have Gase as the leading candidate to be fired first. Expect a makeover in New York by Week 8 or so, which means defensive coordinator Gregg Williams becomes the interim coach – his second such interim opportunity in three seasons (2018 Cleveland).
 
Verdict: True
 
You made a mistake drafting Saquon Barkley second overall in your fantasy draft.
Saquon Barkley was really really bad in Week 1, rushing for a grand total of six yards on 15 carries. It’s actually the second-fewest in a single game in NFL history (min. 15 carries). He was stuffed on 53 percent of his rushing attempts.
 
He also added six receptions for 60 yards out of the backfield, meaning if you played in a PPR league, you still got 12 points. And let’s not forget the defense he played. Pittsburgh was top five in both points allowed and yards allowed last year, third in rushing yards per attempt allowed, and first in rushing touchdowns allowed.
 
Barkley will be fine going forward, and his increased usage in the passing game was a good sign for his owners.
 
Verdict: False
 
Arizona is good enough to win the NFC West, and the Kyler Murray-to-DeAndre Hopkins connection is the reason why.
The NFC West was expected to be one of the toughest divisions in football in 2020. San Francisco is fresh off a Super Bowl appearance. The Los Angeles Rams took a step backwards last year, but played in the Super Bowl the year before. And Seattle is a perennial question playoff contender behind Russell Wilson.
 
But Arizona’s Week 1 over the 49ers was a statement win. Kyler Murray was a popular preseason sleeper MVP pick, and he showed why in the 24-20 win. The second-year quarterback passed for 230 yards, ran for 91 more, accounted for two total scores, and led a 75-yard touchdown drive with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
 
Murray wasted no time in establishing a rapport with All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. In their first game together after the trade, Hopkins caught 14 of his 16 targets for 151 yards. An incredible 54 percent of Murray’s completions went to Hopkins.
 
It’s anyone’s division this year, and this was a huge victory for Murray & Co.
 
Verdict: True
 
 
 
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Posted by Cody Swartz

The oldest and wisest twin. Decade-plus Eagles writer. 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. Sabermetrics lover. Always ranking QBs. Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5).