It’s easy to overreact to Week 1. Last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick led Tampa Bay to 48 points in the opener, then was benched a month later. And Dallas put up just a measly eight points against the Carolina Panthers, then won the NFC East. But you’ll often see some truths. When Kansas City put up 38 points and Patrick Mahomes threw for four touchdowns, we kind of suspected he was the real deal. And when James Conner rushed for 135 yards in the place of Le’Veon Bell, we thought Pittsburgh’s plug-and-play running back system would get good season-long results from Conner.
What about 2019? It was a tremendous opening week of football but what do we believe to actually be true? Here are 10 overreactions and whether I think they’re true or false.
The Patriots may have their best team yet.
Did you watch New England in Week 1? They have a 42-year-old quarterback and no Rob Gronkowski, and they might have their best team yet. Bill Belichick is just a master at compensating for what he does and doesn’t have, and by not having a dominant tight end like Gronk, he shifted his personnel into a heavy dosage of two-running back formations with no tight end on the field. Brady was his typically surgical self, completing 67 percent of his passes for 341 yards, three scores, no touchdowns, and putting up 33 points on a solid Pittsburgh defense. And the best part of this Patriots team may actually be the defense, not the offense. Stephon Gilmore has a case as the game’s best cornerback. Devin McCourty is a perennial ballhawk at safety. A strong front seven completely stifled James Conner and the running game. There are no real weaknesses to this Patriots team. They should cruise to their 11th straight AFC East title and it’s looking like only Kansas City’s high-powered offense may keep Brady/Belichick from another Super Bowl appearance. True
Todd Gurley is the second-best running back on his own team.
Just a glance at Todd Gurley’s statline suggests he had a prominent role in his team’s offense, as he finished with a 14-97 rushing line and added one reception for four yards, giving him over 100 yards from scrimmage. And he played 53 snaps to Malcolm Brown’s 21. What’s interesting though is when Gurley got the ball. For the first three quarters of the game, Brown outcarried Gurley by nearly a 2:1 ratio, receiving 11 totes to just six for Gurley, and Brown also vultured two touchdowns from Gurley.
In 2017, the Rams had 23 carries by running backs inside the opposition’s five-yard line, and Gurley received 22 of them (Brown had the other). Last year, Gurley had 22 of the 28 rushes. In Week 1 this year, Gurley didn’t get any carries, while Brown had two (both for scores) and third-round rookie Darrell Henderson had one. It doesn’t mean Gurley isn’t still his team’s best running back and probably still a top-10 back in the NFL. When it was crunch time in the fourth quarter, he was the one getting the ball. But it does mean Gurley’s role won’t be nearly what it was in previous years. False
Lamar Jackson is now a real passing quarterback.
No quarterback in NFL history has ever sustained the rushing workload Lamar Jackson had as a rookie in 2018. He averaged over 20 rushing attempts per game and was frequently criticized (count me as one of his detractors) for his inability to be a true pocket passer. Jackson’s Week 1 performance then was about as unexpected as you could possibly imagine. Against a horrific Miami team no less, Jackson was as efficient as we’ve ever seen him, going 17 of 20 for over 300 yards and an absurd five passing touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception, wasn’t sacked, and only rushed the ball three times for six yards. He turned first-round rookie Hollywood Brown into a dynamic downfield weapon and threw his touchdowns to five different players.
So is it sustainable? It’s fair to wonder that, given this is far and away the best game Jackson has ever had as a pro. How he responds going forward will be the true test, but it was certainly a step in the right direction. Maybe
Miami really is tanking.
No one in the Miami front office would admit they’re tanking. They would refer to it as a rebuilding process, much like the Cleveland Browns went through. But what they’re doing is tanking. There’s no other reason to have traded their franchise left tackle for a slew of draft picks and to have rid their roster in recent years of players like Jay Ajayi, Cameron Wake, and Jarvis Landry among others. It was so bad after Week 1’s 59-10 loss that reportedly several players have asked their agents to be traded out of Miami. As long as the organization gets its quarterback of the future in the 2020 NFL draft, it will likely be deemed a success; otherwise, this could be a painful process with no real reward. True
The Steelers can’t move the ball without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.
Pittsburgh didn’t have Le’Veon Bell for all of last year, and James Conner did just fine. But after losing both Antonio Brown and Bell (officially), this offense really struggled in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt on 47 passes, throwing no touchdowns and leading his offense to just three points. And this is behind one of the game’s best offensive lines and with a Pro Bowl receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster still on the roster.
It was just one game, and a lot of teams look foolish when playing New England. Roethlisberger is still a top-10 quarterback and both Conner/Smith-Schuster are assets at their position. Let’s wait a few weeks before saying this offense is a bust. False
The Chargers don’t need Melvin Gordon.
Melvin Gordon is following in Le’Veon Bell’s footsteps by holding out into the regular season in anticipation for a new deal. The problem is that Gordon isn’t the player Bell is. He has more of an injury history and unfortunately for Gordon, the Chargers literally didn’t miss a beat without Gordon. Austin Ekeler posted a 12/58/1 rushing line to go with 6/96/2 as a receiver out of the backfield, plus the game-winner in overtime. 2018 seventh-rounder Justin Jackson added six carries for 57 yards, gaining an impressive 9.5 yards per attempt. That’s not a good sign for Gordon’s camp. True
Nick Foles can’t be a franchise QB due to annual health concerns.
It’s as unfortunate as it gets for Nick Foles in that just his 11th snap as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars, he took a hit from Chris Jones and broke his collarbone. This is at least a two-month injury that will put Foles on injured reserve/designated to return, and turn the job over to sixth-round rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew II. It’s Foles’ eighth NFL season and he’s suffered quite a litany of injuries thus far – a broken hand as a rookie in 2012, a concussion in 2013, a fractured shoulder in 2014, a lingering shoulder injury that prevented him from participating in the 2017 preseason, and then a strained shoulder in the 2018 preseason. He was a backup in 2016, meaning the only year of his career he didn’t get hurt was 2015 with the St. Louis Rams, and he was benched that year. It might be harsh to say he can never be a franchise quarterback, but his injury history is alarming and frequently flies under the radar. He’s still never started more than 11 games in a single season. His best role may be as a spot starter, but it’s just difficult to see him staying healthy for all 16 games. True
Cleveland’s offensive line will derail its team.
The offseason hype surrounding Cleveland was very real. It may seem odd considering the team was just two years removed from an 0-16 season and didn’t even post a .500 record in 2018. But Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, OBJ, Jarvis Landry, and Myles Garrett are a litany of stars for a franchise that many picked to win the AFC North in 2019.
So it’s fair to say no one expected Week 1’s shellacking at the hands of the perennially underrated Tennessee Titans. It was an undisciplined performance by the Browns, as the team committed an outrageous 18 penalties for 182 yards. Mayfield was sacked five times for 41 yards, and there’s no reason to think the offensive line will improve at all. The Browns traded away its best offensive lineman in Kevin Zeitler this past offseason, and decided it was wise to enter the season with sixth-round bust Greg Robinson at left tackle. Left to right, this is a very poor offensive line and not what you would expect from a playoff contender. In my bold predictions article, I predicted left tackle would derail the Browns’ team in 2019, and after what we saw in Week 1, I’m certainly not changing my mind. True
Dak Prescott deserves to be the highest-paid QB in the NFL.
It’s popular to focus on Dak Prescott’s flaws and pretend he’s a glorified game manager, but the honest truth is that Prescott has a lot of strengths going for him. He’s started all 49 games in his career, and a clean bill of health should never be overlooked. He’s 33-16 as a starter with two Pro Bowl appearances in three seasons, and he just torched the Giants in Week 1 to the tune of 400+ passing yards and a perfect passer rating. Being the highest-paid quarterback in the league doesn’t mean the quarterback has to be the best quarterback in the league. It’s almost a next-man-up philosophy, and as long as the quarterback is in the top 10 in the league, he gets record money. Considering Dallas’ other options (Cooper Rush?), Prescott deserves to be the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. True
Mitchell Trubisky will cost the Bears a playoff spot.
If they could have revisionist history, don’t you think Chicago would love to go back and draft Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft? Instead, they’re stuck with a quarterback who flashes at times but too often plays very inconsistently and needs to be protected in Matt Nagy’s scheme. Nagy is a masterful play caller who was able to coax solid results out of Trubisky in 2018, but Week 1 was a big win for the ‘Trubisky is a bust’ camp. Trubisky looks much more like 2017 Blake Bortles or 2009-2010 Mark Sanchez – a game-manager who is propped up by his elite defense – then one who can stand in the pocket and shake off a slew of defenders to complete a key 3rd and 11. True
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