TAMPA, FL – MARCH 13: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action during the spring training game against the New York Yankees at Steinbrenner Field on March 13, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
There aren’t your 2018 Philadelphia Phillies anymore. Or the 2017 club. Or the 2016 team. Gone are the days of Freddy Galvis posting a .275 on-base percentage over 650 plate appearances or Tommy Joseph as the team’s best cleanup hitter or an outfield rotation of Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams.
Perhaps the most memorable offseason in franchise history saw owner John Middleton add a litany of All-Star talent – Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, David Robertson, and of course, $330 million prized free agent acquisition, Bryce Harper.
Upon signing, Harper’s contract was the richest ever given to a North American professional athlete, and the fact that the costs are spread out over 13 years actually keeps the AAV (average annual value) fairly low.
Harper’s deal dwarfs the next-most lucrative contract that the Phillies organization had ever handed out – a $125 million extension to Ryan Howard; that one, obviously, did not end quite as well as the team had hoped.
When you sign the most popular athlete in the sport to the largest deal ever, there comes with it an enormous amount of expectations. So how much pressure should be on Harper in 2019? Does he need to win NL MVP and lead the Phillies to a World Series championship to be successful?
Realistically, that probably won’t all happen, although if it does, you could argue the contract is already worth it no matter what else he does. Harper is off to a good start, though. He said all the right things in his press conference. His jersey had the hottest-selling 24-hour period of any athlete ever, and he offers long-term stability to a position that has seen Peter Bourjos, Michael Saunders, Grady Sizemore, Marlon Byrd, and John Mayberry, Jr. start on Opening Day recently.
I took a look at Harper’s career numbers to date so we can more accurately predict how he’ll fare going forward.
Per Baseball Reference:
It’s well-known that Harper is a streaky hitter; look no further than his batting averages that have ranged from .273 to .330 to .243 to .319 to .249 the past five seasons. An absolutely fabulous article by Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer last November cited Harper as being in the 98th percentile for offensive inconsistency, which shouldn’t surprise you if you’ve followed his career at all.
Last year saw Harper take a .214 batting average into the All-Star break before batting an even .300 after the break. For Harper to still end with 34 home runs, his first 100-RBI season, a league-best 130 walks, and a 133 adjusted OPS even after his multi-month slump shows the raw talent that he has.
Arguably Harper’s best attribute at the plate is his plate discipline. He’s already walked 100+ times in three different seasons, and he’s just 26 years old. He’s struggled with injuries, but they’re more in the freak injury sense than the type that would suggest he’s an injury-prone player, and he’s an above-average baserunner as well.
Harper also transitions to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and will likely bat third in the lineup, one spot ahead of future home run champion Rhys Hoskins. While Harper hasn’t recreated his 2015 MVP season, he offers an insanely high floor a a hitter, and at 26, he’s still only going to get better.
Harper is one of 25 players in modern baseball history to start his career with seven consecutive seasons of at least 100 games played and adjusted OPS over 110; 13 of those players are in the Hall of Fame and Albert Pujols will one day make 14. Four times so far, Harper has put up a league-adjusted OPS of over 130.
From a defensive standpoint, it’s fair to wonder how much value Harper offers. Here are his WAR/WAA stats below, including runs added/subtracted as a hitter, baserunner, via double plays, fielding, and based on positional value.
Harper’s WAR has fluctuated greatly on a yearly basis. He peaked as a 10-WAR player in 2015, which puts him in Willie Mays and Mike Trout territory, and he’s fallen to as low as 1.1 in a season; three times in fact, failing to even reach 2.0 WAR (a 2.0 WAR season is generally considered to be what an average major league starter would produce).
Most alarming about his 2018 numbers were his defensive metrics. By posting a total of -26 defensive runs saved, Harper actually turned in one of the worst fielding seasons in baseball history. Likewise by producing positive 25 runs at the plate and negative 25 runs in the field, he joined Adam Dunn as the only players to do so in a single season.
There’s a caveat to last year’s defensive woes. Harper spent much of the year playing out of position in center field, and it’s fair to say his focus on hitting free agency likely played a significant impact in his lackluster defensive performance. Per Sports Info Solutions, Harper dove just one time in 506 combined opportunities in right/center field last year, likely a factor that he was saving his body for a massive free agency payday.
Right or wrong, that’s likely a very plausible explanation. Looking at Harper’s defensive metrics in his previous six seasons, he was average to even above average in the field. In fact, even one of the worst defensive seasons in baseball history (2018) still didn’t bring Harper’s career defensive runs saved below zero. I think it’s logical to assume he will bounce back to being about the same kind of fielder he’s been for six of the seven seasons of his career.
Dividing Harper’s 27.4 WAR by the seven seasons that he’s played shows he’s about a four-WAR player, albeit with great year-to-year variability. If you’re expecting Harper to hit .320 this year and win the league MVP, you probably will be disappointed. But if you’re looking for close to 40 home runs, well over 100 walks, league-average defense, and a playoff berth from the Phillies, that’s very realistic.
I think Harper starts the year off hot. He’s a career .309/ .436/.619 hitter in March/April, by far his best numbers. Harper seems to be the kind of player who will thrive on playing in a big market city like Philadelphia. A midseason swoon is probably likely, but the good news about Harper is that even when his batting average is down, he’ll always get you walks and home runs.
After all, he’s a career .564 slugger at Citizens Bank Park with 14 home runs in just 50 games – a 45-homer-per-162 games projection. I think it’s reasonable to think he approaches that number, along with what should be his seventh career All-Star appearance.
RotoChamp’s published a list of various predictions for Harper (below) from sources such as Steamer, ZIPS, THE BAT, and others.
These don’t include defensive or WAR figures; just the traditional fantasy baseball statistics. I find them to be low in the HR prediction, although fairly spot on with the walks and strikeouts. We’ll check back in six months, but for now, I think Harper outshoots projection and starts the 13-year contract off on the right track.
I’ll say he becomes the first Phillie since Ryan Howard to top the 40-homer mark, starts for the National League in the All-Star Game, and leads all of major league baseball in walks.
Bryce Harper 2019 Projection:
.272/.401/.568, 101 runs, 43 HR, 112 RBI, 8 SB, 125 walks, .969 OPS
5.4 WAR, 3.7 WAA, 5th in NL MVP voting
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